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Buy GoldPrice is at a major Daily resistance,but becuz of the war between Israel and Iran, price may spike below to take out traders, then continue pushing upwards. However , all this is possible if this region hold support, if it does, I'd look to see a pattern been formed on the 1hr tf that indicates bullish momentum, if this doesn't happen, then there's a previous weekly resistant that price may fall in order to tap. But the most important thing is having a good psychology, that's what makes you a good trader, we can say so much about the market direction,but it should be noted that, things do change, anything can happen, so while waiting for the right setup or while anticipation for buys, only those with a strong and disciplined mindset will survive the chaos... Happy Trading 💹
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by scalpking2021
The situation in the Middle East is in turmoil again! (Exclusive (Fifth day of Iran-Israel conflict: Trump leaves G7 ahead of schedule, Middle East situation stirs up waves again!)👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 The conflict between Iran and Israel has continued to the fifth day, the war has not subsided, and the situation is becoming increasingly tense. Due to the sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East, US President Trump left the G7 summit held in Canada one day ahead of schedule, which aroused widespread concern in the international community. On Tuesday (June 17), Trump strongly warned Iran through social media, demanding that it sign the nuclear agreement immediately and calling on Tehran residents to evacuate. At the same time, both Iran and Israel reported heavy casualties and infrastructure damage, ceasefire negotiations were deadlocked, and uncertainty in the global market was further exacerbated. Iran and Israel: The fifth day of tit-for-tat👇 Explosions over Tehran On Tuesday morning, violent explosions were heard over the Iranian capital of Tehran, and the air defense system was operating at full capacity, trying to intercept incoming missiles. According to Iranian media Asriran, Natanz, the site of an important nuclear facility about 320 kilometers from Tehran, also activated high-alert air defense measures. Iranian officials revealed that 224 people have died in Iran in the past five days, most of whom are innocent civilians. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi issued a statement through the social platform X, accusing Israel of "aggression" and warning that Iran will continue to respond strongly if Israel does not stop its military operations. Midnight alarm in Tel Aviv At the same time, Tel Aviv, Israel's financial center, also sounded an air raid alarm after midnight, and explosions resounded through the night sky. It is reported that this is another round of missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel. According to official Israeli statistics, the conflict has killed 24 civilians and nearly 3,000 people have been forced to evacuate due to security threats. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that Iran's attack has had a serious impact on the lives of Israeli people and the government is doing its best to deal with it. The shadow of nuclear facilities Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, as the focus of global attention, has once again become a sensitive target in the conflict. Although Iran stressed that its air defense system successfully protected key facilities, the tension in the region has undoubtedly exacerbated international concerns about Iran's nuclear program. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated on Monday that Israel will eliminate the threat posed by Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs at all costs. He also hinted that if the goal can be achieved through diplomatic means, Israel is willing to give Iran a "60-day opportunity." Trump's tough stance and early departure from the G7 summit "Iran must sign a deal!" Trump published a fierce post on Truth Social, a social media platform he founded, calling Iran's refusal to sign an agreement to curb the development of nuclear weapons a "shame" and a "waste of life." He repeatedly stressed that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and urged residents of Tehran to evacuate immediately. Trump's remarks sparked controversy, with some seeing them as a direct threat to Iran and others interpreting them as him paving the way for possible military action. Interruption of the G7 Summit The White House confirmed that Trump decided to leave the G7 summit one day early on Monday night due to the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East and go to Washington to hold a National Security Council meeting. French President Macron expressed support for this, believing that Trump's decision created conditions for Israel and Iran to accept the ceasefire agreement proposed by the United States. However, Trump's early departure also caused concerns among some allies, who feared that the United States' leadership in global affairs might be affected. U.S. official clarification In response to speculation that the United States might directly participate in military action against Iran, a White House aide explicitly denied the claim. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in an interview with Fox News that Trump's primary goal is still to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, while emphasizing that the United States will resolutely defend its assets and interests in the Middle East. The tortuous prospects of ceasefire negotiations Iran's compromise signal According to Reuters, citing sources, Iran has sent a message to Trump through Middle Eastern countries such as Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, asking him to put pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to promote an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran promised to show greater flexibility in nuclear negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said at X that if Trump really wants to end the conflict through diplomatic means, the next action will be crucial. He also warned that if Israel continues to "aggress", Iran's response will be unrelenting. Israel's tough stance Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will not compromise on Iran's nuclear threats and missile programs. He said that military action is the most direct means at present, but it has not completely closed the door to diplomatic negotiations. However, the voices of hardliners in Israel are growing louder and louder, believing that any compromise may weaken national security. Summary: The complex game of the situation in the Middle East The fifth day of conflict between Iran and Israel has not only exacerbated the turmoil in the Middle East, but also focused global attention on this sensitive area again. Trump's tough stance, early departure from the G7 summit, and the difficult progress of ceasefire negotiations highlight the complexity and uncertainty of the current situation. The compromise signals released by Iran through third countries are in sharp contrast to Israel's tough stance, and the future direction is still full of variables. Analysis of the impact on gold prices The continued tension in the Middle East usually pushes up the demand for safe-haven assets. As a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold is often boosted in such geopolitical crises. The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to increased investor concerns about the stability of the global economy, further pushing up gold prices. However, if the ceasefire negotiations make a breakthrough or Trump's diplomatic efforts ease tensions, gold prices may face correction pressure. In the short term, market sentiment will dominate gold price fluctuations, and investors need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the conflict and related diplomatic progress. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Charlie_Analyst
Hormuz oil tanker catches fire, is this Iran’s “shadow war”?Three ships or tankers caught fire in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. The burning ships were reportedly located at the Khor Fakkan anchorage near Fujairah on the coast of the United Arab Emirates. The incident raised concerns about a possible repeat of the 2019 tanker attacks, which were widely believed to be carried out by Iran as tensions in the Middle East increased under Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign. It is worth noting that the current incident took place at the same location as the previous attack. Forexlive reported that one of the ships currently on fire may be the "ADALYNN". The specific cause of the fire is still unclear. ADALYNN is a crude oil tanker. There are unconfirmed reports that the fire outside the Strait of Hormuz was caused by a collision between two tankers (ADALYNN and Front Eagle). After the above news came out, international oil prices rose. However, later US media reported that Trump's team proposed to negotiate with Iran this week, and crude oil and gold prices fell accordingly. It is worth mentioning that on Monday, the UK Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) said it had received multiple reports of increased electronic interference to ships in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by automatic identification system monitoring. Local naval forces also said on Monday that electronic interference to merchant ship navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf region has surged in recent days, affecting ships passing through the area. The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) of the US-led multinational maritime joint force said in a notice: "JMIC continues to receive reports of electronic interference from the vicinity of Bandar Abbas (Iran), the Strait of Hormuz and several other areas in the Arabian Gulf. These interferences are increasing throughout the region and have a significant impact on the Gulf region itself. This interference is affecting the ability of ships to accurately transmit position data through the automatic identification system, causing operational and navigation challenges to maritime traffic." There is a straightforward way to think about the financial risks of the current Middle East conflict. According to this simple view, escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel will only have a major impact on investors if Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a key flow of global oil shipments and causing prices to soar. There is some truth to this theory, but it underestimates the possibility that other things could go wrong. As the conflict enters its fifth day, it is clear that cooler heads on both sides are having trouble prevailing. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that regime change in Tehran could be the result of an Israeli military attack on the country. This would make Iran's political leaders feel insecure. Conventional wisdom holds that escalation would include closing the Strait of Hormuz. But that doesn't mean there isn't a real danger that Tehran's Revolutionary Guards or Yemen's Iran-allied Houthi rebels could set their sights on trade routes through the Gulf. Iran and its proxies have long been linked to disrupting shipping in the region. In 2019, two Saudi oil tankers were sabotaged off the coast of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Tehran denied the mine attack, but the United States said it was "almost certainly" from Iran. Hundreds of international ships were targeted as far back as the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. The United States, Europe and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the 2019 Abqaiq drone strike, which briefly knocked out half of Saudi oil production, but Iran again denied involvement. The Houthis began launching repeated attacks in the Red Sea last year, prompting most global shipping to detour around Africa. If Iran and its allies go down that path again, the Bahrain-based U.S. Fifth Fleet would likely intervene to protect maritime trade. But it also raises the possibility that it would be formally drawn into the current confrontation. Investors who are currently self-soothing have plenty of reasons to feel reassured. They argue that while Israel has expanded its operations from striking Iranian commanders to energy infrastructure, it has avoided Iran's key Kharg Island terminal, a gateway for 90% of its oil exports. They also see no signs that Tehran will interfere with ships in the Hormuz Corridor. Moreover, oil exports bring in about $50 billion a year for Tehran's battered economy, suggesting that Tehran has good reasons to avoid Hormuz. On top of that, various flashpoints between Iran and Israel in recent years have generally ended quickly. These reasons explain why Brent crude oil prices continue to hover around $75 a barrel, with relatively small gains since Israel launched its first attack last week. But Reuters columnist George Hay said that investors who fail to consider the risks mentioned above may simply not have learned the right lessons from history. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD FOREXCOM:USOIL PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FX:USOIL
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Charlie_Analyst
GOLD- XAU-USD Hello Traders! The GOLD MARKET is on fire! 🚨🔥 XAUUSD has officially broken above the key resistance zone — this is not just a move, this could be the start of something BIG! 💥📈 Is this the golden breakout we’ve been waiting for, or just a short-lived spike? Are we heading toward the next major target, or is a pullback on the horizon? 🎯🔍 Your insights matter — comment below with your analysis and let’s decode this golden move together! Stay sharp, stay golden! ⚔️💰 #XAUUSD #GoldBreakout #ForexTraders #MarketMomentum #GoldAnalysis #TradeSmart
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
3400 3380 are the two points that determine the trend of gold📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: This week, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, retail sales data, initial jobless claims and geopolitical situation will be the core factors affecting global markets. In the short term, gold rebounded after hitting the 3383 line. This round of decline was relatively rapid. At the same time, there is a certain resistance at the 3405-3410 line above in the short term, which is also the main reason for our long orders to leave the market. In the short term, it is recommended to first look at the support situation at the 3380 line below, and then enter the long order after obtaining effective support above this position. On the contrary, if it falls below this short-term support, the gold price is expected to fall to the 3350 mark! For the evening layout, it is recommended to focus on the 3400 long-short watershed, pay attention to the 3410 line of resistance, and pay attention to the 3380 line of support below. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3390-3380 TP 3400-3410-3420 SELL 3400-3390 TP 3380-3360-3350 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold rebound continues to be short! (Exclusive trend analysis)Although gold has fallen below 3400, and the short-term direction has changed, the general direction remains unchanged and it is still bullish. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize before we can buy the bottom. When there is an opportunity to go long later, Charlie will tell you that in today's market, we can only follow the trend. We will do whatever the market does. We will go short first in the rebound in the next two days! FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VELOCITY:GOLD PYTH:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Analyst
XAU/USD Bullish Continuation SetupThe chart illustrates a bullish market structure for XAU/USD, with price action currently trending upwards. Key technical observations: Support Zone: Price has recently bounced from a support zone around 3,399.710, indicating strong buying interest. Bullish Projection: A bullish continuation is expected. The chart outlines a potential scenario with a minor retracement towards 3,432.835 or 3,399.710, followed by a strong upward move. Targets: Immediate resistance is around 3,502.669. If broken, price may aim for 3,550.351. Final projected target lies near 3,680.000, which aligns with a historical supply zone. Indicators: The green enveloping bands suggest increasing volatility, with the price respecting the upper band, supporting bullish momentum. Conclusion: XAU/USD appears poised for a bullish breakout continuation. A potential pullback could offer a buy opportunity, targeting higher resistance zones as long as the structure remains intact
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZareeFxTradingAac
Gold Outlook: Bulls Defend Support Amid Rising Geopolitical RiskGold (XAU/USD) remains within a strong bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, trading inside an ascending channel. Recently, price attempted to break above the key resistance near $3,450 but failed, leading to a minor pullback toward the mid-channel area around $3,428–$3,430, where buyers are currently defending support. The key support remains at $3,394–$3,400, which also coincides with the ascending channel’s lower boundary. As long as price holds above this level, the bullish trend remains intact, and there is potential for a breakout above the $3,450 resistance zone. If a breakout occurs and price closes above $3,450 on the 4-hour chart, the next bullish targets would be around $3,475 and then $3,500–$3,510. On the downside, if price fails to hold $3,394, it may trigger a short-term bearish correction toward the next support zone around $3,380–$3,370. Overall, gold is currently in a consolidation phase inside the $3,394–$3,450 range, with a bullish bias above $3,394. A breakout above $3,450 may trigger strong upward momentum, while a break below $3,394 could open the door for a deeper correction. 🔑 Key Levels Support: ~$3,394–$3,400 (channel floor) and intermediate support at $3,430–$3,440 . Resistance: Immediate resistance zone is $3,445–$3,450, with broader upside potential toward $3,500+ if that break occurs. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by SibiSh
Newmont Corp | NEM | Long at $48.00While gold prices have soared recently, gold mining stocks have lagged. Newmont Corp NYSE:NEM , the world's largest gold mining corporation, may be undervalued if the miners take off to catch up to the gold demand/price. Currently sitting near $48.00 and at a historical moving average that it will need to break to show a true trend reversal, NYSE:NEM is in a personal buy zone. Now, the price may break down at the simple moving average and test the patience of shareholders, but the long game may benefit those who can tolerate the volatility. Target #1 = $57.00 Target #2 = $71.00
NYSE:NEMLong
by WorthlessViews
Gold continues to rise! When will the price of gold fall?Market news: In early Asian trading on Monday (June 16), London gold prices continued to rise last week, hitting a nearly seven-week high of $3,451/ounce, as Israel and Iran launched a new round of attacks on each other on Sunday (June 15), exacerbating market concerns that escalating wars may trigger wider regional conflicts, and international gold continued to receive support from safe-haven buying.The continued rise of gold during the conflict depends on whether it is in a bull market and whether the conflict is likely to escalate. The inflow of funds into gold stock ETFs shows an increase in retail interest, especially silver outperforming spot gold, suggesting that market sentiment is turning. In addition to the geopolitical situation, this week will also usher in the test of the US retail sales monthly rate (commonly known as "terror data") and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.This trading day also needs to pay attention to the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in June and the G7 Leaders' Summit, and pay attention to China's May total retail sales of consumer goods and China's May industrial added value annual rate. Technical Review: The technical price of gold is in good condition with the buying structure of the trend. The MA10/7/5-day moving averages on the daily chart remain open upward, the RSI indicator is hooked upward, and the price is running in the upper and middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving average system of the short-term four-hour chart maintains a golden cross opening upward, the price gradually moves up from the high point of the MA10-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands remain open upward in the same hourly chart. Affected by the market fundamentals, gold has triggered risk aversion.The price of gold continues to rise, and the graphics of various time periods have formed obvious and strong support. In the daily chart, gold fell back to the trend line support after the triangle convergence breakthrough, and ushered in a rising trend again. In the short term, the upward momentum of gold is still strong.      Based on the last round of retracement low of $3120 as the starting point of the wave structure, the push of the third wave may cause the price of gold to rise to $3600-3640. Combined with the current fundamentals, news and geopolitical situation, the medium- and long-term upward trend of gold is far from over. Today’s analysis: At present, the entire market is still affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Gold has been at a high level for a long time. If there is no turning point, the gold price will continue to remain above 3400 today. We will have the opportunity to see the gold price refresh the historical high of 3500 again today or tomorrow, and the probability is also very high. Then our operation idea is to buy to the end before the trend changes! The trend of the gold one-hour market is still strong. From the short-term trend, it continues to maintain a high-level shock pattern, and the low point continues to rise. The high point has been continuously broken. Although the high opening and high movement of the Asian market failed to be directly continued, the high and fall back just gave us the opportunity to buy in! Operation ideas: Buy short-term gold at 3420-3423, stop loss at 3411, target at 3450-3470; Sell short-term gold at 3468-3471, stop loss at 3480, target at 3420-3400; Key points: First support level: 3423, second support level: 3410, third support level: 3392 First resistance level: 3458, second resistance level: 3467, third resistance level: 3483
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors
Gold----Buy near 3417, target 3440-3450Gold market analysis: The continuous bombing of Israel and Iran for several days has allowed gold to stand on 3400 again. The big tombstone before the weekly line was wiped out, and the weekly line closed with a big positive line again, and formed a positive-enclosing-negative pattern. This is the long-term rebound caused by geopolitical factors. There is an old saying in the market that cannonballs are always worth a lot of gold. We are not sure how long the situation between Iran and Israel will last, but what is certain is that the buying situation is obvious. The next operation is to follow the buying. I estimate that gold will continue to rise this week. In addition, under such fundamentals that control the market, we must strictly carry out each order with a loss. The market will not change the trend because you resist the order. Following the trend is the kingly way. In the Asian session, we first focus on the hourly support of 3417 and the shape support of 3419. The position of 3417 is also the watershed of strength and weakness in the short term. If it breaks, it will reach around 3407. In addition, 3451 is the top of the daily line. There was a dive at this position before. If the daily line cannot stand on it for a long time, there is also the possibility of another dive. 3407 is a hurdle in the big cycle. If it breaks, it may bring a waterfall drop. Support 3417, strong support 3407, suppression 3451, the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 3417. Fundamental analysis: There are many fundamental analyses and data in the recent period. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result. Operation suggestion: Gold----Buy near 3417, target 3440-3450
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors
XAUUSD Hello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on GOLD? Gold has broken above a major resistance level, and price has closed firmly above this zone, signaling strong bullish momentum and a shift in market sentiment. We expect a brief pullback in the short term, followed by a resumption of the upward move toward higher targets and new highs. As long as price remains above the identified support level, the bullish outlook remains valid. Is gold ready for its next leg up after the pullback? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇 Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by HAMED_AZ
22
Buy on dips and seize rising opportunities📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: The market opened higher in the morning and then continued to fall. From a medium-term perspective, the market is still in a medium-term bullish position. The price will only be under further pressure if it breaks below the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. Judging from the 1H chart, the short-term death cross continues to fall. At the same time, according to the 4H level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3403. This support is the key watershed of the short-term trend. As long as it does not fall below this support, the bulls still have a chance. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3413-3403 TP 3430-3440 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
xauusd Entry Level: 3,416.000 USD Price is currently at 3,425.640 USD, so the entry was already triggered and the position is active and in profit. Stop-Loss (SL): 3,407.500 USD Positioned below the minor FVG area; protects against deeper downside if structure fails. Take-Profit Targets (TP): TP1: 3,423.000 USD (short-term scalp zone — already reached) TP2: 3,439.000 USD (medium-term resistance) TP3: 3,452.500 USD (strong upside target; likely near a previous high) Shift Stop to entry after reaching TP1
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tdawly_Official
XAUUSD:Waiting to go long For gold I am still bullish, do long, rather than blindly chase long. Today's lowest reretreat to around 3408, from the short-term level or long willingness is stronger, the hourly level is a little pressure, trading can wait for the pullback before buying long, the important support below 3404. Short-term support looks at 3407-12 Trading Strategy: BUY@3407-12 TP:3427-30 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Boooob_
Gold Reclaims Bullish Zone—Perfect Time for a Swing EntryGold has once again reclaimed bullish momentum after breaking through the key support zone around $3,412, previously a stubborn ceiling that had acted as resistance multiple times throughout late May and early June. The break above this level—validated by a decisive green Supertrend flip—indicates a short-term trend reversal in favor of buyers. After a brief consolidation phase, XAUUSD formed a solid breakout candle, confirming upward momentum. The current price action sits comfortably above the Supertrend line, which is now acting as dynamic support, while volume has picked up notably during the move up—an important confirmation of institutional interest and breakout strength. Trade Setup Breakdown • Entry: Above the $3,412 breakout area (now acting as support) • Stop Loss: Below the key support zone, ideally near $3,373–$3,375 to allow for wick re-tests and avoid premature exits • Target/TP: Resistance zone marked near $3,484–$3,500, which aligns with a prior consolidation ceiling from late April and early May. This target offers a risk-reward ratio of approx. 2.3:1, which is favorable for a swing position. • Re-entry Opportunity: If gold retraces back to the $3,373–$3,383 zone (support cluster), it would provide a high-probability re-entry while keeping the same TP of $3,500. Why the Bias Is Bullish 1. Structure Break & Supertrend Flip The key breakout above previous resistance was clean and confirmed by the Supertrend flip to green, a historically reliable short-term bullish signal. 2. Volume Confirmation Volume spikes on the breakout candles confirm real buying pressure—not just a false breakout or low-liquidity movement. 3. Support Retest Potential The $3,412–$3,383 zone now forms a strong demand area where buyers are likely to defend their positions if price pulls back. This zone also aligns with historical congestion from earlier price action. 4. Macro Context (Not in chart but relevant) Ongoing economic uncertainty, rising global tensions, and interest rate speculation continue to boost gold's safe-haven appeal. Traders are increasingly rotating into gold during periods of macro volatility. Outlook Gold is likely to continue climbing toward the $3,500 mark unless it closes below $3,373 on high volume. Bulls appear to be in control, and even a minor pullback could serve as a buying opportunity. As long as the price remains above the flipped Supertrend and $3,373 support, the bullish case remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
Gold is gaining momentum – Can the bulls drive it up to $3,485?OANDA:XAUUSD is a typical case of a market trading within an ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both its upper and lower boundaries. As you can see in my analysis, the price has recently broken through an important resistance zone and may return to retest it. If this level holds as support, it will indeed confirm the bullish trend and make the move towards my projected target of 3,485 highly likely, aiming for the next resistance zone at 3,485 and 3,500. If the price remains above this support zone, my bullish outlook remains intact. However, if the price fails to hold above this level, the short-term bullish outlook will therefore be disrupted and may be followed by the next downward retracement. Make sure to always use proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jessica_Paul
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
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by bryandowningqln