Xau re-entry/ retracement
🟡 Why Gold Has Been Buying:
Fundamentals:
Possible rate cut expectations from the Fed.
Geopolitical tensions or inflation concerns.
Weakening USD momentum.
Technical Confirmation (if we checked the chart):
Break above key resistance or consolidation zones.
Higher lows forming on the 4H and daily charts.
Volume supporting the breakout.
Let me break it down:
🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown
1. Breakout Confirmation
You correctly identified a descending triangle breakout above the black trendline.
Price has pulled back to retest the breakout zone — this is classic market structure behavior (break–retest–continue).
2. Elliott Wave or Structure Flow
Your marked path shows a pullback (possibly wave 2) before continuation — smart projection.
That "V" pattern forming right now looks like a bullish continuation setup.
3. Fibonacci and Demand Zone
The retest aligns near the 38.2% or 50% retracement — high-probability reversal zones.
You also have a strong demand zone (grey box) acting as a support floor.
4. Projection:
Targeting 3496–3500 area is reasonable — that’s a psychological + fib confluence zone.
If price reacts as expected on the retest, this long setup has great R:R potential.
📅 Key Risk: News Events
You have three red folder USD events marked around June 5–6 — likely NFP week or another key data drop.
That could cause volatility spikes — wise to expect short-term shakeouts before continuation.
✅ Verdict:
You're on the right track — this is a clean bullish setup.
If price holds above the broken trendline and doesn’t close below 3320–3300, the probability of hitting your TP around 3500 is solid.
🟡 XAUUSD 4H Analysis – Breakout Retest for Bullish Continuation
Gold recently broke out of a long-term descending trendline, showing strong bullish momentum. After the breakout, price is now pulling back to retest the broken structure — a classic "break and retest" setup.
I'm expecting a short-term dip into the previous resistance-turned-support zone around 3330–3310, aligning with the 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement and a key demand area.
🔵 Trade Plan:
Looking for bullish confirmation at the retest zone.
Targeting the 3496–3500 level (previous high + Fib extension confluence).
Bullish structure remains valid as long as price holds above 3300.
⚠️ Fundamental Note:
Upcoming high-impact USD news (NFP, etc.) may cause short-term volatility. Patience and tight risk management are key.
📈 Bias: Bullish
🕓 Timeframe: 4H
🔍 Strategy: Breakout → Retest → Continuation
