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The idea of shorting on rallies below 3315 remains unchanged.Gold remains generally weak, with multiple rebounds showing signs of fatigue. The upward moving average continues to suppress prices, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact, and the short-term market outlook remains bearish. Trading strategies remain bearish today, with a key focus on the 3300-3315 area, a key short-term resistance zone. If the market rebounds before the US market opens and approaches this area, or if a clear topping signal appears near this range, consider entering a short position. Today will see the release of the non-farm payroll data, which may influence the market's trajectory. We recommend prioritizing short-term trading before the release, and reconsidering the market's direction based on market feedback after the release. Structurally, gold continues to exhibit a volatile downward trend, with lower highs and lower lows. Today's low is expected to be lower than yesterday's. Short-term short positions are focused on 3285-3280, with a break below this level potentially allowing for further declines. Please carefully time your entry, strictly implement risk management, and avoid emotional trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade-Daniel
2
The trend is clear, why do I choose to be firmly bullish on goldGold Trend Analysis: Yesterday, the gold market demonstrated strong upward momentum, opening near 3290 before falling slightly to a low of 3281 before fluctuating upward. Boosted by the non-farm payroll data, the gold market surged during the US trading session, reaching a single-day gain of 2.02%, reaching a high of 3363 and closing there. The daily chart formed a long bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, forming a Morning Star pattern, reinforcing the bullish trend. From the perspective of the cycle structure, the daily level is clearly in the 5-wave upward stage, and the upward trend of the large cycle has not changed. At the indicator level, the daily MACD momentum column (the column below the zero axis) represents the short-selling momentum. Its "gradual shortening" means that the short-selling force is weakening and the downward momentum is gradually fading. It is a potential signal of stopping the decline or rebounding. KDJ is about to form a golden cross between 20-50, which is a signal that short-term bullish power is beginning to increase, and the overall trend is bullish. The 4-hour level shows typical bullish characteristics: the moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern, but there is a certain deviation between the short-term price and the moving average. The technical side needs to correct the deviation rate through a callback before continuing to rise. The short-term support below is focused on the line near 3330-3335. This position is both the relay support level in the previous rise and the intersection of the 4-hour moving averages MA10 and MA20, which has strong support strength; the short-term resistance above is focused on the line near 3370-3383. This area is a pressure-intensive area near the previous high point. If it can be effectively broken through, it will further open up upward space. A successful breakout would open up further upside potential. A breakout would further open up the 3400 mark. For gold trading, the short-term strategy is to buy on dips. If the price pulls back to the 3330-3335 support level, consider entering a long position with a target of 3355-3365. If it reaches 3370-3380, consider a short-term short position with a target of 3350-3340.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
1
How to accurately grasp the gold trading opportunitiesGold was greatly affected by the positive non-farm payroll data, and it rose strongly, with the increase completely covering all the losses this week. The current gold trend has completely reversed the previous bull-short balance. After breaking through the 3300 level and rising to around 3355, it maintains strong upward momentum, and the possibility of further testing the 3360-3375 area cannot be ruled out. Due to the strong positive data, if everyone fails to chase the long position or set a breakout long position in time in the first wave of the market, the subsequent pullback opportunities may be relatively limited, so it is necessary to maintain an active strategy in operation. It is recommended to continue to be bullish when it retreats to the 3335-3320 area, and the upper target is the 3360-3375 pressure range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trade-Daniel
How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand? Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me. Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned. Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade-Daniel
NFP data is positive, the bullish trend remains unchanged#XAUUSD The current market, influenced by data such as NFP, remains bullish, even briefly pushing towards the 4H upper limit of 3350, reaching a high near 3354.📈 In the short term, gold still has upward momentum and could even reach the previous high resistance level near 3375.🐂 Currently, gold is undergoing a technical correction and needs to begin a pullback to accumulate more bullish momentum, giving traders who previously missed the opportunity to get on board.🚀 As resistance continues to rise, support below will also rise. 📊If gold retreats below 3335-3315, consider going long.📈 🚀 SELL 3335-3315 🚀 TP 3350-3375
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Halson_Winston
Gold rebound is weak, short below 3315 Gold remains weak, with multiple intraday rebounds failing to maintain momentum. The upper moving average continues to suppress the market, and the short-term market remains dominated by bears. Today, we are following the trend and taking a bearish stance. The key upside level is around 3315. If it reaches this level before the US market opens or if it peaks in the short term, we will short sell. The non-farm payroll data will be released today, and we will consider reversing our direction based on the situation after the data. Gold prices have once again encountered resistance to their upward trend, and the volatile pattern continues. The gold price trend is trending lower highs, and today's low is expected to be lower than yesterday's. Therefore, our intraday short target could be 3268 or even lower, so it's crucial to seize the right entry point. If you're new to the market, come to me. I'll teach you how to trade while you learn. If you're already in the market and struggling, come to me. I'll help you avoid repeating the same mistakes. If you've already experienced this market and are battered, come to me. I'm confident I can help you regain confidence. If you're stuck in a position, I'll develop a strategy tailored to your entry point. Because everyone's trapped positions are different, the solutions will vary, some suitable for conservative traders and others for aggressive ones. However, I can't offer a perfect answer to every situation. I suggest you bring your order with you. Once you contact me, I'll use the most appropriate method to resolve your situation and help you exit the market. Specific Strategy Short gold at 3315, stop loss at 3325, target at 3280
TVC:GOLDShort
by jiqeu1
Analysis of gold market operation strategies and ideas next week Gold rallied unilaterally on Friday following positive non-farm payroll data, reaching a new high for the week. This week's candlestick formed a hammer pattern, suggesting further upside potential next week. Bulls continued their push late Friday, closing at 3363. Next week, we will continue to monitor short-term resistance around 3370-3375. We will continue to buy on pullbacks. If your current trading is not satisfactory, I hope I can help you avoid investment setbacks. Welcome to discuss your options! Based on a 4-hour analysis, short-term resistance will be seen around 3370-3375 next week, with a key resistance around 3395-3400. We will continue to buy on pullbacks. In the intermediate range, we recommend maintaining a cautious wait-and-see approach. I will provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so please stay tuned. Gold Trading Strategy: Go long on gold pullbacks to 3330-335, with a stop-loss at 3318 and a target at 3370-3375. Hold on if it breaks above this level.
TVC:GOLDLong
by jiqeu1
How to correctly grasp the gold trading opportunities?Yesterday, gold prices saw a technical rally amidst volatile trading, followed by a downward trend under pressure. Bulls strongly supported a rebound at 3280 in the Asian session. The European session saw an accelerated upward move, breaking through 3314 before retreating under pressure. We also precisely positioned short positions below 3315, achieving a perfect target of 3290-3295. During the US session, the market again faced pressure at 3311, weakening in a volatile trend before breaking through 3300. The daily chart ultimately closed with a medium-sized bullish candlestick pattern, followed by a pullback and then a decline. Overall, after yesterday's rebound, gold prices remain under pressure at the key resistance level of 3314. The short-term bearish weakness line has moved down to this level. If pressure continues in this area in the short term, gold will maintain a weak and volatile structure, with intraday trading remaining focused on rebounds and upward moves. If you are currently experiencing confusion or unsatisfactory trading strategies, please feel free to discuss your options and help avoid investment pitfalls. From a 4-hour analysis perspective, focus on resistance at 3305-3315 on the upside. A rebound to this level is a good opportunity to short against resistance. Focus on support at 3280-3270 on the downside. Unless the price stabilizes strongly, consider not entering long positions below this level. The overall strategy remains to short on rebounds, with the same rhythm. I will provide timely notifications of specific levels from the bottom, so keep an eye on them. Gold Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds near 3305-3315, with targets at 3290-3280-3270.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade-Daniel
Non-farm payrolls are coming. Will it trigger the market?On Thursday, the US dollar index briefly rallied after the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, crossing the 100 mark for the first time in two months. This marked the sixth consecutive trading day of gains and the first monthly gain since 2025. Spot gold rebounded as risk aversion lingered amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff deadline, reaching a high of around $3,315, but its intraday gains narrowed after the release of the PCE data. The dollar has already firmly established itself above the 100 mark on the daily chart, so the next target is likely to be between 101.5 and 102.0. Currently, support levels on the daily chart are visible at 99.5 and 99.0. The gold market is currently consolidating in the 3315-3275 range. However, if the dollar rises again, Quaid believes gold prices could fall below 3275. On the daily chart, if it falls below 3275, the price would likely be around 3250. If 3250 falls below, the market could test 3200. However, the possibility of a consolidation between 3315 and 3275 remains undisputed. Before the release of the non-farm payroll data, scalping within this consolidation range is advisable. However, the risk is relatively high, so please take profits in time.
FX:XAUUSD
by quaid_2
XAUUSD: BUYThere are some good trading opportunities in the market. That's when to buy. Gold prices haven't fallen further since falling back to 3390. There's no further negative news. Therefore, there won't be a significant short-term decline. Our focus will be on tomorrow's non-farm payroll data update. This is a crucial factor that can cause gold prices to rise or fall significantly in the short term. I'll update you with real-time buy and sell opportunities. This is based on research from the Swing Trading Center. It's highly authoritative. Don't miss out! Remember to stay tuned. XAUUSD: BUY 3292-3282 TP 3320. SL 3265
TVC:GOLDLong
by WIN_Ludvig
Short selling remains the main themeGold hit a low of around 3267 yesterday and fluctuated until closing at 3274. Gold fluctuated upward at the opening today. Currently, gold is fluctuating around yesterday's rebound point of 3305. This is the resistance we need to pay attention to in the short term. From the 4H analysis, today's short-term resistance is around 3305-3315. If gold wants to rise, it needs to stabilize above 3315. Focus on the 3335 first-line pressure, and rebound to the 3305-3315 resistance area during the day. You can consider shorting and follow the trend to see the decline unchanged, looking towards 3290-3280. Rely on this range to maintain the main tone of high-altitude participation. For the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HuntingWolves
[XAUUSD – Intraday Price Action Outlook | 30 July 2025Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around 3,329 USD and is consolidating within a narrow rising channel after completing a significant downtrend. The market is showing signs of a potential breakout, either to continue a short-term bullish correction or resume the dominant bearish momentum. Key Technical Zones: Resistance zone: 3,339.2 – 3,348 This is a critical zone where bullish breakout confirmation is likely to attract momentum buyers. The zone aligns with upper trendline resistance and previous consolidation highs. Support zone: 3,325.6 – 3,292.7 This range acts as a short-term support base, marked by multiple rejections and aligned with the lower boundary of the current rising wedge formation. A breakdown here could trigger strong bearish continuation. Indicators & Confluences: EMA200 (blue): Acting as dynamic resistance, slightly above current price. EMA50 & EMA100: Compressing toward current price action, indicating price equilibrium and coiling volatility. RSI (not shown): Likely hovering near 50 – signaling market indecision. Fibonacci 0.874 has been tagged – often a zone where false breakouts or liquidity grabs occur, demanding caution. Trading Strategy Suggestions: Bullish Scenario (Breakout Strategy) Entry: Buy only if price closes above 3,339.2 (confirmed breakout of wedge). Stop-loss: Below 3,328.1 (previous supply turned demand). Target: 3,370 – 3,392 zone (aligned with EMA200 breakout & prior structure). Note: This setup relies on confirmation and should not be anticipated early. Wait for candle close above 3,339.2 to invalidate current wedge structure. Bearish Scenario (Rejection & Breakdown Strategy) Entry: Sell if price rejects 3,330–3,332 area and returns below 3,327.80 (as marked). Stop-loss: Above 3,332.04 (above trendline and EMA cross). Target: 3,292.74 (volume node + base of channel). Risk/Reward: >7.0 (based on current tool parameters shown in chart). This is a favorable setup if price respects current wedge resistance and fails to breakout convincingly. Conclusion: Gold is at a decisive point. The formation of a rising wedge in a prior downtrend signals potential bearish continuation, but a breakout above 3,339.2 could trigger a reversal short-term. Both bulls and bears need confirmation before entering. Monitor volume closely — rising volume on breakout/breakdown will validate either scenario.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
XAU/USD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, using a combination of trend lines, EMA, RSI, and price structure. --- Technical Breakdown: 1. Price Structure: Gold is forming a rising channel (black trend lines) within a short-term uptrend, but this is happening below the 200 EMA, which generally indicates bearish momentum. A resistance zone is highlighted near the top of the channel, suggesting sellers might defend this level. 2. Key Level: Resistance Level: Around 3,330–3,335 zone. Target Point: Price is expected to break down from the channel and reach support levels near 3,284.35 and 3,282.51. 3. Moving Average (EMA 200): Current price is below the 200 EMA (3,348.42), reinforcing a bearish bias. 4. RSI (14): RSI is near 52.58, indicating neutral-to-slightly-overbought territory. No strong divergence is visible, but RSI is not confirming a bullish trend either. 5. Projection (Hand-drawn Path): The drawn path shows a potential breakdown from the channel with a bearish impulse targeting lower support zones. Mr SMC Trading point --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bearish Confirmation Needed: Break below channel support Entry Zone: Near the resistance of the rising channel (~3,330–3,335) Target Zone: 3,284.35 – 3,282.51 Invalidation: Sustained break above 3,348 (above EMA 200) plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
XUA/USD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, targeting a move toward the $3,310–$3,315 support zone. Here's the full breakdown: --- Technical Analysis – Gold (1H) 1. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Supply Zones Two FVG supply zones are marked where price previously dropped sharply: Upper FVG zone near $3,385.49 (with red arrow: expected rejection point) Lower FVG zone near $3,352.47 Price is expected to reject from either zone, resuming the bearish move. 2. Market Structure: Lower Highs, Lower Lows The chart shows a clear bearish structure, with consistent lower highs and lower lows. The current price action suggests a potential pullback into FVG, followed by another leg down. 3. Key Support Zone (Target Area) The yellow box between $3,315.22–$3,310.99 represents a strong demand/support zone and is marked as the target point. This level has acted as a prior accumulation zone and is likely to attract buying interest again. 4. EMA 200 Resistance Price is trading below the 200 EMA (currently at $3,365.87) — indicating a bearish bias. EMA also aligns near the lower FVG zone, reinforcing the area as a potential reversal point. 5. RSI Indicator RSI at 35.38 is nearing oversold territory but still shows downward pressure. No divergence or reversal signal yet — supports the continuation view. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary Bias: Bearish Current Price: $3,337.02 Supply Zones (FVG): $3,385.49 (stronger supply) $3,352.47 (minor supply) Support Target: $3,315.22–$3,310.99 Structure: Bearish (LL-LH formation) EMA: 200 EMA acting as dynamic resistance RSI: 35.38 – still bearish momentum --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
10
Gold - Sell around 3345, target 3320-3301Gold Market Analysis： Gold has been in a correction over the past two days, with repeated ups and downs, generally trending towards a low and then a rebound. Yesterday, we insisted on selling at 3320, 3326, and 3328, but the profits weren't significant. The daily chart doesn't clearly indicate stabilization or a reversal of trend. Looking at the longer-term trend, I still insist on buying if 3345 breaks. If it doesn't break, we can hold on to the bearish trend. We previously mentioned that 3300 is support on the daily and weekly charts. A technical rebound and correction after selling below this level is inevitable and a normal technical correction. Furthermore, starting Wednesday, big data will be released one by one, and the market is waiting for the data to guide its direction. The weekly chart is also confused and directionless. We're just small investors; we need to follow, not speculate. The 5-day moving average on the daily chart has dipped below 3335, a level that has been retested multiple times in the Asian session. The current correction range is 3300-3335, with resistance around 3345-3343. The daily chart closed positive again, suggesting that the support below may be difficult to break in the short-term Asian session, and a significant decline is unlikely. We anticipate continued correction pending the ADP results. Support is 3311 and 3301, resistance is 3345, with minor resistance at 3335. The dividing line between strength and weakness is 3335. Fundamental Analysis: Today, focus on the ADP employment data and the EIA crude oil inventory data. The US interest rate results are the highlight, along with the speech. Trading Recommendation: Gold - Sell around 3345, target 3320-3301
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicolaZhu
Gold big data is here! Gold prices are igniting the market!Market News: Spot gold fluctuated narrowly in early Asian trading on Wednesday (July 30), currently trading around $3,325 per ounce. London gold prices recovered some of their losses on Tuesday after falling for the fourth consecutive day, as the US dollar gave up some of its earlier gains, boosting international demand for gold. Declining US Treasury yields and a weak US labor market report also prompted investors to buy gold. The gold market is currently at a critical turning point. Fundamental buying and selling factors are in fierce competition: on the one hand, easing global trade tensions are suppressing safe-haven demand; on the other hand, falling US Treasury yields and expectations of a possible Federal Reserve shift are providing support. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade negotiations, Trump's tough stance on Russia and the Middle East, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to add further uncertainty to the future of the gold market. Furthermore, attention will be paid to the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions, the US second-quarter GDP data and the July ADP employment data. Second-quarter GDP data from Germany and the Eurozone also warrant attention. Technical Review: Gold bottomed out and rebounded, stopping at the 3310 level before rising sharply above the 30 mark. The daily chart closed with a small positive candlestick pattern. The 10/7-day moving averages remain converging, suppressing the 57 level above. The RSI stopped below the 50-day moving average and adjusted downward, with the price trading below the middle Bollinger Band at 40. A four-hour chart golden cross formed and pointed upward. The hourly MACD momentum bar is above zero, while the RSI is flattening, indicating a neutral trend. Gold technically remains in a wide range of fluctuations. The trading strategy is to sell high and buy low. Plan to buy low at 3318/06 and sell high at 3346/58. The release of important data today will affect the original technical trend of gold and silver, increasing volatility. Be aware of market risks. Today's Analysis: Although gold rebounded yesterday, the momentum wasn't particularly strong, with the upward trend remaining erratic. Bullish volume remains insufficient. Today's key events will be the non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Pre-market activity is unlikely to see a significant upturn, so we'll have to wait for the data to provide direction. Expect volatility before the release! The slope of gold's 1-hour rebound doesn't necessarily indicate a deep V-shaped pattern. Gold hasn't yet reversed, and a second bottom is possible. Only if gold doesn't break a new low during this second bottoming out could a double bottom form. Gold is still expected to decline in the Asian session. If gold rebounds and comes under pressure, continue selling. A deep V-shaped reversal is only possible if gold breaks through and stabilizes at the 3345 level. Until then, continue selling at high prices. Trading strategy: Short-term gold: Buy at 3310-3313, stop loss at 3300, target at 3340-3360; Short-term gold: Sell at 3343-3346, stop loss at 3355, target at 3310-3300; Key points: First support level: 3310, Second support level: 3292, Third support level: 3284 First resistance level: 3338, Second resistance level: 3346, Third resistance level: 3358
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicolaZhu
XAU/USD(20250730) Today's AnalMarket News: According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump's approval rating has fallen to 40%, the lowest level since his second term. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 3322 Support and Resistance Levels: 3348 3338 3332 3312 3306 3296 Trading Strategy: If the market breaks above 3332, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price at 3338. If the market breaks below 3322, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price at 3312.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by NicolaZhu
BTC's latest trading strategy and analysis layout#BTCUSD BTC's current technical signals show a bull-bear tug-of-war situation.If a golden cross is formed near the zero axis, it may indicate a new wave of rise; if it falls below the zero axis, we need to be wary of a deep correction. There are certain opportunities for both bulls and bears in the current market, but global regulatory policies have not yet been unified. Policies such as the US "GENIUS Act" may affect BTC and require continued attention. BTC is currently facing significant buying support around 117,500, but the hourly chart shows that there is still potential for a continued pullback. The current trend has not yet finished. Pay attention to the support level of 116,000 below. If it falls below, it may fall into the consolidation range of 116,000-114,000. For aggressive traders, consider going long at 117,500-116,500, with a target of 118,500-119,500. A break above this level could lead to 120,000. 🚀 117500-116500 🚀 118500-119500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Halson_Winston
Gold price bottoming out?Market news: In early Asian trading on Tuesday (July 29), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $3,320 per ounce. The international gold price fell to a three-week low on Monday, mainly because the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement over the weekend, boosting the dollar and risk sentiment. In addition, Trump said that he would impose a "global tariff" of 15% to 20% on most countries, which was different from his statement last week. The dollar index rose to a one-week high, making gold relatively expensive for investors holding other currencies.The volatile downward trend of London gold prices was not only directly affected by the trade agreement reached between the United States and Europe, but also closely related to the strong rebound of the US dollar index, the recovery of global risk appetite and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. At the same time, the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, Trump's tough stance on Russia and the Middle East, and the continued tension in geopolitics still add more uncertainty to the future trend of the gold market.Gold is facing multiple tests: the three unfavorable factors of a strong dollar, a rebound in risk appetite, and a rise in real interest rates have formed a combined force. In addition, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July and the US JOLTs job vacancy data for June will also be released on this trading day, and investors need to pay attention to them. Technical Review: The further strengthening of the US dollar index has caused gold to continue to adjust close to the 3300 mark under pressure. As the price crosses below the short-term moving average, the current short-term moving average and other periodic indicators have begun to turn downward, and the Bollinger Bands as a whole are also intended to shrink. In addition, the macd indicator has a dead cross pattern again and has no upward intention, and it has a strong downward extension and obvious volume. Therefore, the daily line should continue to tend to sell. However, while selling, we should also pay attention to the strength of the rebound.The daily chart closed with a continuous negative structure, and the price was running in the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands and below the MA10 daily moving average of 3360. The short-term four-hour chart hourly chart Bollinger Bands opened downward, and the moving average opened downward. In addition, the macd indicator maintained a dead cross pattern, and the downward volume showed sufficient potential, so the 4-hour gold price can continue to participate in selling at a high level after a short-term rebound, assisting low-price buying! Today's analysis: Gold bears are galloping all the way, and gold buying has basically no rebound strength. Gold is still in a selling trend. Go with the trend, the trend is king, and continue to sell with the trend. As long as gold does not show an obvious buy reversal signal, then the rebound is to continue to sell gold to the end.The gold 1-hour moving average continues to form a dead cross selling arrangement. The selling strength of gold is still very strong, and gold selling will continue to exert its strength. Gold rebounded to 3318 yesterday, which is still a weak rebound. The watershed for buying and selling gold is now at 3330. Gold rebounds above 3330 in the Asian session, which is an opportunity to sell at highs. Operation ideas: Buy short-term gold at 3300-3302, stop loss at 3292, target at 3330-3350; Sell short-term gold at 3330-3333, stop loss at 3342, target at 3300-3290; Key points: First support level: 3308, second support level: 3293, third support level: 3284 First resistance level: 3330, second resistance level: 3346, third resistance level: 3360
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicolaZhu
XAU/USD(20250729) Today's AnalysisMarket news: After gold prices soared to an all-time high of more than $3,500 an ounce in April, the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that fund managers have increased their bullish bets to the highest level in 16 weeks. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 3320 Support and resistance levels: 3363 3347 3337 3303 3293 3277 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 3320, consider buying in, with the first target price of 3337 If the price breaks through 3303, consider selling in, with the first target price of 3293
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NicolaZhu
Gold Price Rally: Why Hedge Funds Are Making Their Biggest Bet Glimmer of Gold: Why Hedge Funds Are Making Their Biggest Bullish Bet in Months In the complex and often turbulent theater of global finance, the movements of so-called "smart money" are watched with an eagle's eye. When these sophisticated players, particularly hedge funds, move in concert, it often signals a fundamental shift in market sentiment. Recently, a powerful signal has emerged from the depths of the commodities market: hedge funds have dramatically increased their bullish bets on gold, pushing their net long positions to a 16-week high. This aggressive positioning is not a random fluctuation; it is a calculated response to a potent cocktail of persistent geopolitical instability, simmering trade tensions, and a growing conviction that the global economic landscape is tilting in favor of the ultimate safe-haven asset. The surge in bullish sentiment represents a significant vote of confidence in the yellow metal. It suggests that some of the world's most well-resourced and analytically driven investors are looking past the daily noise of equity markets and are instead positioning themselves for a future where security, stability, and tangible value take precedence. They are not merely dipping their toes in the water; they are making a decisive, leveraged bet that the forces buffeting the global economy will continue to drive capital towards gold's enduring allure. This move has sent ripples across the financial world, prompting investors of all stripes to ask a critical question: What does the smart money see that we should be paying attention to? Decoding the Data: A Sharp Turn Towards Bullishness To understand the magnitude of this shift, one must look to the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report provides a detailed breakdown of positions in the futures markets, separating traders into different categories, including "Managed Money." This category, which primarily consists of hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, is a key barometer for speculative sentiment. The latest data reveals a sharp and decisive increase in bullish conviction. Hedge funds significantly ramped up their gross long positions—outright bets that the price of gold will rise. Simultaneously, they have been closing out their short positions—bets that the price will fall. The combination of these two actions has a powerful magnifying effect on the "net long" position, which is the difference between the number of long and short contracts. Reaching a 16-week high is particularly noteworthy. It indicates a reversal of previous caution or bearishness and the establishment of a new, more aggressive bullish trend. For months, hedge funds may have been hesitant, weighing the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates against emerging geopolitical risks. The current data shows that the scales have tipped decisively. This isn't a gradual accumulation; it's a forceful pivot, suggesting a high degree of conviction in the upside potential for gold. This influx of speculative capital acts as a powerful tailwind for the gold price, creating upward pressure as more funds chase the emerging momentum. The Three Pillars of the Golden Thesis The coordinated move by hedge funds is not based on a single factor but on a confluence of three powerful, interlocking macro-economic and geopolitical narratives. Each pillar reinforces the others, creating a compelling case for holding gold. 1. The Unsettled World: Geopolitical Risk as a Prime Catalyst Gold has, for millennia, served as the ultimate barometer of fear. In times of peace and prosperity, its appeal can wane in favor of assets that offer growth and yield. But in an environment of escalating geopolitical tension, its value proposition becomes unparalleled. The current global landscape is rife with such tensions. Persistent conflicts in key regions continue to create uncertainty, threatening to disrupt energy supplies, shipping lanes, and international relations. The risk of these conflicts widening or drawing in other powers keeps a floor under the demand for haven assets. Beyond active conflicts, the world is witnessing a broader realignment of global power. The rise of multi-polarity and the challenging of the post-Cold War order create a backdrop of systemic instability. Furthermore, political uncertainty within major economies adds another layer of risk. Election cycles in dominant nations can lead to unpredictable policy shifts on everything from trade and taxation to international alliances. This policy uncertainty makes investors nervous, prompting them to allocate capital to assets that are insulated from the whims of any single government or political outcome. Gold, being a stateless monetary asset with no counterparty risk, is the natural recipient of these capital flows. Hedge funds are betting that these geopolitical undercurrents will not only persist but potentially intensify, making gold an essential portfolio hedge. 2. The Friction of Trade: A Drag on Global Growth The era of seamless globalization has given way to a period of strategic competition and trade friction. The ongoing trade disputes between the world's largest economic blocs, most notably the United States and China, have moved beyond mere rhetoric and are now an entrenched feature of the global economy. Tariffs, export controls, and national security-driven industrial policies are disrupting long-established supply chains and creating a more fragmented and less efficient global marketplace. This environment is a significant headwind for global economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy makes it difficult for businesses to make long-term investment decisions, dampening corporate spending and hiring. Slower global trade directly translates to slower economic growth, which in turn puts pressure on corporate earnings and equity valuations. In this context, gold shines. As an asset that does not rely on economic growth to generate returns, it acts as a valuable diversifier in a portfolio dominated by stocks and bonds. When growth falters, gold's role as a store of value becomes more pronounced. Hedge funds are positioning for a scenario where persistent trade tensions continue to weigh on the global economy, making riskier assets less attractive and defensive assets like gold more appealing. 3. The Central Bank Pivot: Anticipating Looser Money Perhaps the most powerful financial driver for gold is the outlook for monetary policy, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The price of gold has an inverse relationship with real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation). When real rates are high, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold is also high, as investors can earn a handsome, risk-free return in government bonds. Conversely, when real rates are low or falling, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, making it a more attractive investment. For the past couple of years, central banks have been in a fierce battle against inflation, raising interest rates at an aggressive pace. However, the market is now increasingly looking ahead to the next phase of the cycle: rate cuts. While the timing is still a matter of debate, the consensus is that the next major policy move from the Fed and other major central banks will be to lower rates to support a slowing economy. Hedge funds are front-running this anticipated pivot. They are accumulating gold now in expectation that falling interest rates in the future will provide a significant tailwind for its price. Even before the cuts materialize, the mere expectation of looser monetary policy is enough to fuel a rally. Furthermore, there is a persistent fear that central banks might make a policy error—either by keeping rates too high for too long and triggering a deep recession, or by cutting rates too soon and allowing inflation to become re-anchored. Either scenario is bullish for gold, which performs well during both economic downturns and periods of high inflation. This speculative demand from hedge funds is layered on top of a powerful, long-term structural trend: voracious buying from the world's central banks. For several years, central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, India, and Turkey, have been steadily diversifying their foreign reserves away from the U.S. dollar and into physical gold. This "de-dollarization" trend is a strategic move to reduce dependence on the U.S. financial system and to hold a neutral reserve asset in an increasingly fractured world. This consistent, price-insensitive buying from official institutions creates a strong and stable floor of demand for gold, providing hedge funds with the confidence to build their own large, speculative positions on top of it. Conclusion: A Resounding Vote for a Golden Future The sharp increase in bullish gold bets by hedge funds is more than just a statistic; it is a story about risk, fear, and the search for security in an uncertain world. It reflects a growing consensus among sophisticated investors that the confluence of geopolitical turmoil, economic friction, and an impending shift in monetary policy has created a uniquely favorable environment for the precious metal. These funds are acting as canaries in the coal mine, signaling a potential increase in market volatility and a flight to safety. Their aggressive positioning, backed by billions of dollars in capital, can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, driving prices higher and drawing in more waves of investors. As the world continues to grapple with deep-seated structural changes, the decision by the "smart money" to make its largest bullish wager on gold in months is a clear and resounding signal: in the quest for a safe harbor, all that glitters is, once again, gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
3300 may fall below, possibly setting a new low#XAUUSD From the daily chart perspective, gold has a tendency to form a converging triangle, and observing the technical indicators of the daily chart, the downward trend may have just begun📉. So, how should we plan for the evening?📊 Now there are certainly many outside buyers who will continue to increase their positions and try to recover their losses💰. So, should we continue to be long?📈 My opinion is to wait and see.👀 If the daily chart does not fall below 3300 points, it will consolidate between 3300 and 3350 points in the future. If it falls below 3300 points, we will next focus on the support level of 3295-3285 points, and then consider whether to go long🤔. If you are more aggressive, you can consider going long near 3305 points and exit after earning $10-20. All opinions have been informed and everyone can choose to adopt them according to their own circumstances.😄
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Halson_Winston
Monday market forecast and analysis ideas#XAUUSD There will be a lot of data next week, such as the 8.1 tariff deadline that I have repeatedly emphasized, the Federal Reserve decision, NFP data, etc. It can be said that it is relatively difficult to analyze purely from a technical perspective, because there is uncertainty in many data, the data results are often non-linearly correlated with market reactions (good news does not necessarily lead to a rise, and bad news does not necessarily lead to a fall), and large fluctuations can easily form oscillating K-lines with long upper and lower shadows. Therefore, the first arrangement for next week is to participate in trading with a light position and avoid letting emotions control your thinking. The closing price on Friday was near 3337, proving that the short-term judgment on the rebound momentum of gold is correct, so there are two possible situations on Monday. 1. The first thing we need to pay attention to is 3345-3350 to determine whether it constitutes a short-term pressure level. The weekly line closed with a negative cross star. Combined with the monthly line trend, in terms of support, focus on the trend line support near this week's low of 3325. If this position is not broken, the market is expected to usher in a wave of rebound; if it falls below 3325, the bottom may look to 3310 or even 3295 for support. 2. The rebound momentum of Friday continued on Monday, breaking through 3350 first, and then it is possible to reach the previous high resistance area of 3370-3380. If it encounters resistance here, gold will continue to fall and fluctuate, and the target may even be 3310. If the price remains strong and issues such as interest rate cuts and tariffs are imminent, it means that the short-term downward trend has ended and may even set a new high. The above content is only a forecast for Monday’s market. It will be greatly affected by data and news, and may be adjusted in real time next week based on intraday trends. You can refer to this, but remember not to be swayed by emotions. We will participate with a light position, and the specific trading strategy can wait for my trading signal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Halson_Winston