2 more reasons to buy gold? Israel is sending a delegation to Washington for strategic talks on Iran, while Trump has reportedly given Tehran a two-month deadline for a nuclear deal—so far, Iran isn’t engaging.
So, the question is: Are we headed towards military conflict or a significant wave of sanctions?
Meanwhile, protests erupted after Erdoğan’s main rival was arrested, triggering a sharp selloff in Turkish markets. The lira hit record lows, forcing the central bank to intervene with nearly $10 billion in currency sales.
Turkey’s inflation remains elevated at 39%, with interest rates at 42.5%. Continued lira weakness could push inflation higher, forcing further rate hikes and adding to the country’s economic instability.
Goldtrader
Best GOLD XAUUSD Consolidation Trading Strategy Explained
In article , you will learn how to identify and trade consolidation on Gold easily.
I will share with you my consolidation trading strategy and a lot of useful XAUUSD trading tips.
1. How to Identify Consolidation
In order to trade consolidation, you should learn to recognize that.
The best and reliable way to spot consolidation is to analyse a price action.
Consolidation is the state of the market when it STOPS updating higher highs & higher lows in a bullish trend OR lower lows & lower highs in a bearish trend.
In other words, it is the situation when the market IS NOT trending.
Most of the time, during such a period, the price forms a horizontal channel.
Above is a perfect example of a consolidation on Gold chart on a daily.
We see a horizontal parallel channel with multiple equal or almost equal highs and lows inside.
For a correct trading of a consolidation, you should correctly underline its boundaries.
Following the chart above, the upper boundary - the resistance, is based on the highest high and the highest candle close.
The lowest candle close and the lowest low compose the lower boundary - the support.
2. What Consolidation Means
Spotting the consolidating market, it is important to understand its meaning and the processes that happen inside.
Consolidation signifies that the market found a fair value.
Growth and bullish impulses occur because of the excess of demand on the market, while bearish moves happen because of the excess of supply.
When supply and demand find a balance, sideways movements start .
Look at the price movements on Gold above.
First, the market was rising because of a strong buying pressure.
Finally, the excess of buying interest was curbed by the sellers.
The market started to trade with a sideways range and found the equilibrium
At some moment, demand started to exceed the supply again and the consolidation was violated . The price updated the high and continued growth.
Usually, the violation of the consolidation happens because of some fundamental event that makes the market participants reassess the value of the asset.
At the same time, the institutional traders, the smart money accumulate their trading positions within the consolidation ranges. As the accumulation completes, they push the prices higher/lower, violating the consolidation.
3. How to Trade Consolidation
Once you identified a consolidation on Gold, there are 2 strategies to trade it.
The resistance of the consolidation provides a perfect zone to sell the market from. You simply put your stop loss above the resistance and your take profit should be the upper boundary of the support.
That is the example of a long trade from support of the consolidation on Gold.
The support of the sideways movement will be a safe zone to buy Gold from. Stop loss will lie below the support zone, take profit will be the lower boundary of the resistance.
AS the price reached a take profit level and tested a resistance, that is a short trade from that.
You can follow such a strategy till the price violates the consolidation and establishes a trend.
The market may stay a very extended period of time in sideways, providing a lot of profitable trading opportunities.
What I like about Gold consolidation trading is that the strategy is very straightforward and completely appropriate for beginners.
It works on any time frame and can be used for intraday, swing trading and scalping
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Why gold may—or may not—reach $3,060 next Gold is now up 15.57% in 2025 after gaining 27.2% in 2024.
If the current momentum continues, traders may target the upper parallel trendline near $3,060 and rising.
Safe-haven demand is a key driver of this rally, but what could disrupt it?
For one, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke for 90 minutes today, agreeing on steps toward a peace deal in Ukraine, including a pause on attacks on energy infrastructure. However, Putin declined to accept a broader 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. and Ukrainian officials.
Gold surges, just $17 away from $3,000 Gold is sprinting to new all-time highs and approaching the $3000 level. The price has just reached $2983 at the time of writing, just $17 away from the key $3000 level.
Alex Ebkarian from Allegiance Gold forecasts “prices to trade between $3,000 and $3,200 this year,”.
Momentum is currently being driven by uncertainty around Trump tariffs and stalled ceasefire talks with Vladimir Putin, who has outlined sweeping conditions for any potential truce.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday could also be influencing prices. While the central bank is expected to keep its rate at 4.25%-4.50% until at least June, with the current economic environment, a change in guidance from the Fed might be warranted. A delay in the anticipated June rate cut wouldn't be helpful for the gold price
4 reasons that Gold may have peaked: Gold can thrive on uncertainty, and for the past three years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a key driver. However, recent developments hopefully suggest a possible shift toward peace. While a complete resolution is uncertain, the beginning of peace talks, no matter how flawed they appear, could weaken gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Gold benefits from lower interest rates, as it competes with yield-bearing assets like bonds. Earlier in the year, markets expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively. However, recent economic data and Trump’s economic policies mean inflation could be a greater concern than initially thought. This has led to doubts about how quickly the Fed will ease policy. If rate cuts are delayed or scaled back, gold’s upside could be limited.
Gold and Bitcoin are seen as alternative stores of value. Bitcoin has recently fallen about 20% from its highs. This could suggest a broader shift in risk sentiment, potentially impacting gold if investors move back into the U.S. dollar or other assets.
Markets initially expected Trump to push aggressive tariffs, which would have fueled inflation and boosted gold. However, so far, his rhetoric has been more meandering than expected, with only a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. If markets believe that Trump’s trade policies will be less disruptive than previously thought, gold loses a key bullish narrative.
XAUUSDfinally over a year gold has rised 8600 pip which is incradibly insane, i see gold potentially trapping buyer at this high price my prediction is very simple it might may not be the same for sure.. as we still see how this month is going to close after all monthly 11 bullish candle and only 2 bearish candle has been performed, trade what you see, not what we think. happy weekend. what you think let me know in the comment.
Gold reacts to unserious peace talksThe United States and Russia recently held peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine’s participation. Russian officials did not mention offering any concessions and U.S. officials did not claim to have scored any in Tuesday's meeting.
Adding to the unseriousness of the talks, Donald Trump called Zelensky a “dictator,” and suggested that Ukraine is responsible for the war, echoing obvious Russian talking points.
Gold rose above $2,930 per ounce on Wednesday, just shy of last week’s record high of $2,940.
Technical indicators remain in extreme overbought territory, although extreme geopolitical uncertainty may call for extreme readings for longer. In the near term, the pullback appears corrective, with XAU/USD still holding above all key moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important Supports & Resistances to Watch
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Horizontal Structures
Support 1: 2869 - 2886 area
Support 2: 2770 - 2790 area
Resistance 1: 2941 - 2950 area
Resistance 2: 2998 - 3003 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan For Next Week Explained
Here is my price action analysis for Gold on a 4H.
The market is currently trading in a sideways after
an extended up movement that was completed 5th of February.
We see a horizontal parallel channel formation.
To confirm the next bullish wave, I suggest waiting for a breakout
of its resistance.
4H candle close above 2887 will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2900 then.
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the support of the channel
may trigger a correctional movement.
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XAUUSDwhat a greay weekend...gold is still pushing higher high finally made it to nearly 2900 , as weekly candle close strong bullish that seems like it might hit the cluster edge as predicted on the chart, i hope you all guys understand clean and clear, if not let me know in the comment.
looking for short from the edge of the cluster.
happy weekend.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold for next week.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Rising Trend Line
Vertical Resistance 1: Rising Trend Line
Horizontal Structures
Resistance 1: 2816 - 2820 area
Support 1: 2786 - 2790 area
Support 2: 2718 - 2732 area
Support 3: 2689 - 2698 area
Support 4: 2655 - 2663 area
Support 5: 2614 - 2635 area
Support 6: 2596 - 2605 area
Support 7: 2583 - 2585 area
Consider these structures for pulback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD3 strong rejaction on 2730 finally gold rejected 4th time as well, strong strong suply zone. weekly candle was closed bullish, kind of confusion but as techniclly i see a short from , if price din return in favore back to 2730 could be a double top.
everything depend on the market opning on monday.
what are your thought, let me know in the comment.
THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL COMPLETEDKOG first published this chart at the beginning of November prior to the US Election with our view of the movement expected and the trade plan for the month.
We highlighted the path with the Red arrows and added the green arrows with the actual movement. As you can see, we weren't too far off with the projection using it to then trade the levels intra-day and for the swings successfully. It's worked well and combined with our tools, indicators, algo and target activations we can honestly say it's been another great year in Camelot.
We will end this idea here and mark it as completed at the green arrow point above.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG