GBP/USD Weekly Plan – 8th to 12th July 2025The British Pound is testing the upper range of its recent rally, just below a high-liquidity supply zone near 1.37898. While short-term bullish momentum remains intact, both the technical structure and upcoming macro events point towards a potential midweek reversal.
📉 Technical Breakdown – H4 Chart
Price has completed a full impulsive leg and is approaching a key supply zone (1.37703–1.37898), aligning with weekly highs.
Previous CHoCH + BOS formations show buyer strength, but recent rejections indicate exhaustion.
Liquidity sits below at 1.35013 and 1.33927, making downside targets attractive for short setups.
🔁 Trade Setups
✅ SELL GBP/USD
Entry: 1.37703
Stop Loss: 1.38000
TP1: 1.37100
TP2: 1.36513
TP3: 1.35013
Rationale: Selling into weak high and potential liquidity trap. Expecting rejection from the top of the weekly range.
✅ BUY GBP/USD
Entry: 1.33927
Stop Loss: 1.33600
TP1: 1.34500
TP2: 1.35237
TP3: 1.36900
Rationale: Buying from a strong demand zone and order block with FVG confluence. Clean upside potential if market respects structure.
🧠 Macro Context – What to Watch
🇬🇧 GBP Drivers:
BOE Governor Bailey Speaks (Twice this week) – May offer clarity on future monetary stance.
🇺🇸 USD Drivers:
Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Markets watching for tone on rate path.
NFP Jobs Report (Friday) – Forecast: 147K. A strong figure could support USD.
Unemployment Claims / Rate – A key pair of metrics for short-term dollar moves.
🧩 A hawkish Fed tone + strong NFP = stronger USD → pressure on GBP/USD.
📊 Key Zones
Zone Role Notes
1.37898 Weekly High Strong resistance + sell-side liquidity trap
1.37703 Sell Entry Within supply zone
1.33927 Buy Entry Order block + FVG zone, ideal reversal zone
1.35013 Major Target Previous BOS zone and liquidity below structure
⚠️ Strategy Guidance
Wait for confirmations on H1–H4 (CHoCH / FVG rejection).
Avoid new positions 1 hour before or after red-folder events (e.g., NFP, Bailey speech).
Trailing SL recommended once TP1 is reached.
