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Harmonic Patterns

RIOT / 2hAccording to the prior analysis, NASDAQ:RIOT continued to sell off 6.8% today and closed the week with an 11% decline in total. Wave Analysis >> The rising leading diagonal in wave (1) ended with a diagonal as its 5th wave inside at 10.86. Its correction in the same-degree wave (2) has started its way down toward the origin of the ending diagonal >> 7.93. Trend Analysis >> The trend has turned to correcting down. It might be a relatively deep retracement that will take a few weeks to develop. The retracement targets >> 8.20 >> 7.93 >> 7.67 #CryptoStocks #RIOT #BTCMining #Bitcoin #BTC
NASDAQ:RIOT
by ElliottChart
BITCOINThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #bitcoin #dollar
Long
by Shavyfxhub
The FVG above isn’t the target. It’s the bait.This is a classic Smart Money sequence. Most are watching the imbalance at 106.5k–108.7k and expecting immediate delivery. But that’s not how this game works. The setup: Price broke down violently, then reversed with momentum — stopping right beneath the daily FVG block. That alone tells me it’s not ready. It’s gathering. Below? Multiple fib levels that haven’t been tested — 104.4k (0.236), 102.6k (0.0), and a volume-backed rejection wick that still holds weight. The market is likely to dip again — pull into deeper discount, reset the low timeframe narrative — and only then attack the FVG and upper sweep zones. What I expect: Sweep of 102.6k (final liquidity run) Reaction → reclaim 104.4k Push into the FVG toward 106.5k (0.5) and possibly 107.4k (0.618) No emotional reaction to the red candles — this is structure playing out, not weakness unfolding. Plan: Ideal Entry: 102.8k–103.2k range SL: Below 102.6k TP1: 105.6k TP2: 107.4k Final: 108.7k clean inefficiency fill Let it dip. Let it breathe. That’s where conviction is built. Final thought: “The real move starts when they convince you it’s done.”
by SmartFlowst
When the range compresses, the breakout doesn’t ask — it takesThis isn’t a chop. It’s a setup. AVAX just printed the kind of consolidation Smart Money wants to see before delivery. The setup: After the impulsive drop, price carved out a micro-range with well-defined boundaries — compression structure nested inside inefficiency. The FVG above (marked in purple) hasn’t been mitigated, and price is now pressing upward into that void with rising volume. But that’s not where the trade is. The real trade is in the retracement. I’m watching for one of two entries: Either we drive into the FVG first, then sweep back into the range floor to trap late longs Or we sweep range low one more time, then rip straight into the imbalance Either way, the invalidation is clean — below the swing low, under 18.66. Execution plan: Entry: 18.70–18.90 zone (post-sweep or reaction) TP1: 19.80 fill (FVG midpoint) TP2: 20.54 clean inefficiency clearance Nothing about this is forced. Price is telling the story. I’m just listening. Final thought: “The range isn’t random. It’s the disguise Smart Money uses before they move size.”
by SmartFlowst
GOLDThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Compression, rejection, and the trap belowPEPE isn’t random here — it’s in a calculated drawdown. Not a dump — a design. What looks like weakness is really compression into a reactive pocket. The logic: Price is descending inside a compression channel. But the real interest lies lower — specifically around the FVG and the untouched demand range down to 0.0000089. That’s the key. The 0.0000103 zone is a surface-level fib level (0.382), but the deeper intention is beneath it — where Smart Money will want to accumulate before running it back into inefficiency. Above us? There’s a massive void sitting between 0.0000115 and 0.0000126. That’s the draw — but not before a deeper sweep to fuel it. Two key paths: Ideal: Full sweep of 0.0000089 demand → strong reversal → drive back into the .5/.618 fib cluster near 0.0000115–0.0000126 If front-run: Hold near current level (0.0000103) and deliver into the FVG gap above Anything below 0.0000083? That’s your invalidation. Until then, compression is the setup. Final thought: “Smart Money doesn’t chase the wick. It sets the trap — then steps in with size.”
by SmartFlowst
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #gold #dollar
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
This retrace was never weakness — it was refinementDOGE delivered the exact narrative I’ve come to expect from algorithmic flow on the low timeframes. This wasn’t about volatility. This was about cleanup. The play: After the initial spike, price formed a visible FVG and retraced into the 0.5–0.618 fib zone. That’s not random — that’s rebalancing. Not only did we see a fade into the midpoint, but volume increased into the dip, not out of it. What this does is simple: it clears out early longs, taps deeper liquidity, and prepares for re-delivery — all while structure remains intact. Expectation: Two paths are mapped — both favoring upside: Ideal scenario: sweep 0.618 or 0.786 (down to 0.1726) → quick rejection → rally back into the FVG and above Conservative: hold above 0.1761 fib (0.5) and slowly grind into 0.1795 Final target remains the inefficiency fill near 0.1825 Risk profile: Entry: 0.174–0.176 zone Invalidation: below 0.169 TP1: 0.1795 TP2: 0.1825 I’m not interested in chasing. I’m interested in absorption. This is where smart entries are born — deep in discount, backed by displacement. Final word: “If you can’t see the intention behind the pullback, you’re not trading Smart Money — you’re reacting to it.”
CAPITALCOM:DOGEUSD
by SmartFlowst
GOLD The Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy: Key Data Points Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023. 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels. Fed Interpretation Improved Consumer Sentiment: The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data. The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth. Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations: The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons. This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral. Policy Implications: Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows. No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025. Market Reactions DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20. Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines. Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook. Conclusion The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends. #GOLD #DOLLAR
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Ethereum - This structure decides everything!Ethereum - CRYPTO:ETHUSD - trades at a key structure: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) After Ethereum retested the previous all time high in the end of 2024, we saw quite a harsh move lower. This move was followed by an expected recovery, however Ethereum is still trading below a key structure. Either move is still possible and will shape the future of Ethereum. Levels to watch: $2.500, $4.000 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by basictradingtv
11
AppLovin - the Shoulders – But Not the Breakdown!🟢 Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bearish) * The price action is forming a left shoulder , a higher peak (head) , and a right shoulder . * This classical pattern often signals a reversal from bullish to bearish. * The dotted orange neckline marks the potential support – if broken, it could trigger a sharper decline. 📉 Key Technical Zones * Neckline Support: Around $309 . A breakdown below this level may confirm the pattern. * Previous Support : In case of a breakdown, next strong support lies near $100–110 (long-term zone). * Upside Scenario : If neckline holds and bullish momentum resumes, the pattern could be invalidated with a breakout over $400 . 📊 MACD Divergence * MACD shows a bearish divergence (higher price highs vs. lower MACD highs), signaling momentum weakness . * The histogram is turning red again – a bearish sign. * A bearish crossover has already occurred, supporting a possible downtrend. 🔄 Possible Scenarios * Bearish : If neckline breaks → possible drop toward the $200s or lower. * Neutral : Consolidation between $310–$380. * Bullish : If price bounces before neckline and breaks above $400 → invalidates pattern.
NASDAQ:APPShort
by EmreSrn