BTC Long Outlook – Grand Supercycle Perspective (2025.05.21)Hello everyone,
This is SeoVereign, the operator of the SeoVereign team.
It's been nearly a month since I returned to TradingView and started posting ideas again.
During that time, I’ve frequently shared short-term ideas based on minute charts.
However, since real-time responses are crucial in short timeframes,
there are practical limitations in explaining all the reasoning behind our analysis in detail each time.
But when it comes to larger timeframes like the daily chart,
we have a bit more flexibility.
So I see this as a valuable opportunity to explain our thought process and key reasoning more thoroughly.
Now, let’s get into the Bitcoin daily chart briefing.
Please refer to the following link first.
This is a post I made on April 18, 2025:
🔗
At the time, I shared the view that the upward wave starting near 75K
had the potential to extend to 88K and even 96K.
However, it was difficult to determine exactly how far the wave would extend at that point.
Now, I want to make one thing very clear.
If someone uses wave theory to say something like
"Bitcoin will definitely go to X price,"
that person is either a scammer or someone who fundamentally misunderstands wave theory.
Elliott Wave Theory can be somewhat useful in anticipating short-term moves,
but it has clear limitations when applied to long-term predictions.
After many years of studying Elliott Wave Theory in depth,
I've come to a simple but important conclusion:
"You cannot predict the distant future with technical analysis alone."
That said, there is one exception:
very short-term movements — the immediate price action right in front of us —
can often be approached with some confidence using technical analysis.
Here’s an example.
If someone bought Bitcoin at 10K and says,
“I’m going to sell at 100K,”
while it hasn’t even broken past 50K,
that’s just reckless optimism.
But if Bitcoin has already approached 100K,
and several bearish signals are starting to emerge and become confirmed,
that’s when we can begin considering short positions.
The key is to make decisions based on the data right now — not based on hopes or assumptions.
That was a long introduction.
Now, let me explain why I believe Bitcoin could break to new all-time highs
and possibly reach as high as 130K.
As I mentioned in the April 18 post,
I believe an Ending Diagonal was completed around the 74K region,
and I anticipated an upward impulse wave to follow.
In my view, the current market structure clearly suggests we are in an uptrend.
Many of you have reached out via private messages asking,
“What kind of wave are we in right now?”
But in this case, that question doesn’t hold much value.
Whether this current move is part of an impulse wave or a corrective structure,
what matters is that the price is going up.
If, for instance, the A-wave has completed — as confirmed by Fibonacci —
then the B-wave would follow, and we can plan accordingly with long positions.
Or, if the ABC correction is already over,
then a new impulse wave could be starting.
Either way, the key takeaway is that we’re likely in an upward phase.
Back to the main point:
A Deep Crab harmonic pattern formed near 74K,
and that zone concluded with an Ending Diagonal,
which is now leading to a bullish reversal.
I've studied harmonic patterns for years,
and in the case of the Deep Crab,
the upper boundary of the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)
is typically around the 2.24 Fibonacci extension.
As long as this level is not broken,
the pattern remains valid.
And when a reversal happens near the 1.618 or 1.902 zones,
it’s often a highly reliable bullish signal.
So, what are our targets in this current rally?
🎯 SeoVereign’s Target Strategy
1st Target: 109,000
2nd Target: 118,600
3rd Target: 128,100
Right now, before the market enters a full-scale bullish breakout,
we’re seeing unusually high volatility.
In times like this, staying calm and grounded is more important than ever.
I sincerely wish all of you the best of luck in navigating this volatility,
and may a wave of growth come to your accounts as well.
🍀 I genuinely hope great fortune finds its way to all of you.
See you in the next daily briefing.
Thank you.
— SeoVereign
