XAUUSD $3500 Recovery? Reverse Heads and Shoulders? 🔎 STRUCTURE & TECHNICAL ELEMENTS
1. Pattern:
A falling wedge was formed and broken cleanly to the upside → bullish reversal structure.
Breakout was followed by a successful retest at prior structure lows (marked “Clear Breakout and Retest”).
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG 1D) Zone:
Currently being tested. This zone coincides with:
Minor support from prior consolidation
Fib retracement (0.5 level)
Potential demand area (watch for bullish reaction/candle structure here)
3. Volume Profile:
3,350 = POC (Point of Control) → heavy resistance.
3,300 = Secondary HVN → strong support below current price.
Low-volume nodes just under current price → if broken, price likely accelerates into the GP zone.
4. Fibonacci & Liquidity Confluence:
Golden Pocket (3287) just below 3,300 = ideal liquidity draw if FVG fails.
Target 1 / 2 / 3 above are Fibonacci-based projections + historical swing zones.
✅ SCENARIO 1: Bullish Case – FVG Holds
If price respects the FVG 1D zone, expect:
Continuation up toward Target One (~3,430)
Extension to Target Two (~3,470) and even Target Three (~3,540+) possible
Confirmation: Bullish engulfing / high-volume bounce / sweep of intraday lows without close below FVG
Bias: Bullish continuation as long as price holds above FVG/0.5 Fib
🚨 SCENARIO 2: Bearish Case – FVG Breaks Down
If price closes below FVG zone, particularly below 3,312:
High probability drop toward 3,300 (psych level)
Liquidity sweep and deeper correction into Golden Pocket (~3,287) likely
This area can act as a high-probability long re-entry zone
Bias: Short-term bearish if close below FVG + swing structure invalidation
⚖️ REFINED SUMMARY
Price rejects off FVG - we can expect target 1 and 2 tagged.
Price breaks & closes below FVG zone - we can expect it to drop/wick to 3,300
