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Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
AUD-CHF Pullback Ahead! Sell! Hello,Traders! AUD-CHF made a retest Of the strong wide horizontal Resistance around 0.5289 And we are already seeing a Local pullback so we are Locally bearish biased and We will be expecting a Further bearish move down On Monday Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
ETHUSD: Next Move Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse ETHUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 2,545.9 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 2,529.4..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
NATGAS Growth Ahead! Buy! Hello,Traders! NATGAS made a retest of The horizontal support level Of 3.450$ then established A double bottom pattern And a we are already Seeing some rebound so We are locally bullish biased And we will be expecting a Further bullish move up On Monday Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
EUR/USD Bulls in Control... But the Trap Is Set at 1.1600? 🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place. 🔍 Technical Analysis Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows. The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume. RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback. 🔁 Key Levels: Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area) Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support) Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base) 📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking. Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants. Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility. 🧭 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253. This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports. 📅 Seasonality – June Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June. The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior. This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally. 🎯 Trading Conclusion Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600 Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action Target: 1.1430–1.1300 Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270 📌 Summary The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Massive GBP/USD Reversal Ahead? Head & Shoulders FormationGBP/USD is at a critical technical juncture following a sharp bullish impulse that pushed the pair above the 1.34 handle, printing a strong weekly bullish engulfing candle and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone. This move unfolded in a macro context where the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness, with Non-Commercial net long positions dropping drastically—from around 20,000 to less than 5,000 contracts. This shift points to a fading speculative appetite for the dollar, historically a leading indicator of upcoming corrective phases or broader declines in the DXY. On the flip side, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British Pound reveals that Non-Commercials (typically hedge funds and asset managers) remain net long on GBP, with a slight increase week-over-week. However, Commercials (generally institutions and hedgers) have aggressively built up a significant net short position—levels that in the past preceded major reversals on the pair. This divergence between speculators and institutional hedgers suggests short-term bullish potential, but with rising risk of exhaustion near current resistance levels. Adding fuel to this outlook is the retail sentiment: approximately 63% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, with an average entry price around 1.3021. This kind of retail crowd positioning, typically inefficient from a historical perspective, adds contrarian support for further upside, as long as price holds above the 1.3340 structure. From a seasonality perspective, June tends to be a mildly bullish-to-sideways month for GBP/USD, especially when looking at the 10- and 15-year seasonal averages. While the seasonal bias is not particularly strong, there’s also no statistical downward pressure this time of year, leaving room for technically-driven moves influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than macro patterns alone. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a steep rally capped by a large green candle on Monday, breaking cleanly through the 1.34 resistance zone. The price is now hovering inside a key supply area between 1.3499 and 1.3550—a historically reactive zone that has triggered major rejections in previous months. How price reacts here will likely shape the next major swing. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above 1.3550 would open the door for an extension toward 1.37–1.3750. Conversely, a sharp rejection followed by a break below 1.3412—and especially under 1.3340—would set the stage for a deeper correction toward 1.3170. The RSI is currently showing early signs of momentum loss, although no strong bearish divergence has emerged yet. This implies that the pair could still fuel another push higher before running out of steam—possibly forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern if the rejection scenario plays out.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
GBPJPY At the Top? Massive Liquidity Grab📈 1. Price Action & Key Technical Levels (Daily Chart) Price reached a major supply zone between 196.0 and 197.0, showing clear rejection (weekly pin bar and a lower high structure relative to the previous peak). The long-term descending trendline acted as resistance again. A confirmed rising wedge pattern broke to the downside, with first target around 191.4, and extended target near 187.4 (key demand zone with historical confluence). Weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence vs price highs – an additional signal of bullish exhaustion. 📊 2. COT Data (as of June 3, 2025) GBP (British Pound) Net long positions increased by +30,371 contracts (Commercial + Non-Commercial). Non-Commercials: 103,672 long vs 68,457 short → net long +35,215 but the increase is relatively modest. Commercials are increasing both long and short positions, but the net delta supports medium-term GBP resilience. JPY (Japanese Yen) Net short worsened by -13,566 contracts. Non-Commercials are cutting longs and adding shorts → aggressive yen selling. Commercials remain heavily short (275,659 vs 100,151 long). ➡️ COT Conclusion: GBP remains structurally strong, but the JPY is now extremely oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical correction in favor of JPY (GBPJPY pullback). 📉 3. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short GBPJPY, with an average entry at 191.2. Current price is above 195.8 → a liquidity sweep above retail shorts may have already occurred. The order book shows a heavy sell cluster between 195.0–195.9 → potential zone of manipulation/liquidation. ➡️ Contrarian view: After sweeping liquidity above retail highs, we may now see downside pressure to clean out breakout longs. 📅 4. Seasonality June tends to be neutral to bearish: 5-year average: +0.45% (weak gain) 10- and 15-year averages: -1.24% and -1.30% Historically, the first 10 days of June often mark a local top, followed by a decline – consistent with the current price structure. 🧠 5. Macro-Technical Confluence The broader setup points to a distribution phase between 195.5–196.5, with high probability of a technical pullback toward 193.5–191.4 in the short-to-medium term. The yen's oversold conditions may ease temporarily, supporting a corrective GBPJPY retracement. Break below 193.5 would confirm the move toward 191.4 and eventually 187.4 – an area of institutional interest. 🔍 Trade Setup Summary (Bias: Bearish) Technical context: Short setup confirmed by structure break, divergence, and supply rejection. Macro/sentiment context: Supports a corrective pullback on the pair. Strategy: Look for intraday weakness below 195.0–194.5 → targeting 193.5, then 191.4. Invalidation: Daily/weekly close above 197.0.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure) The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone. We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with: Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200 A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal 🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3) Commercials (Smart Money): +4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion Non-Commercials (Speculators): –2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance 📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials. 📆 3. Seasonality June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg) 10Y average still leans bullish ⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes 📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3. 📰 4. Macro Calendar High-impact USD week: CPI – Wed, June 11 PPI – Thu, June 12 These will be critical to: Validate the disinflation narrative Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov 📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises. ⚙️ Operational Outlook ✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation): 🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure ❌ Invalid below 21,350 🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion): 🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200 🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone 🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
DXY: Local Bullish Bias! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 97.757 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 97.970.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FreeXauusdSignals