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XAUUSD H4 Outlook — 16 June 2025👋 Hello team, here’s where we stand before the upcoming key week: 🔎 The Narrative Gold remains in bullish control after weeks of controlled expansion. The clean breakout above previous major highs triggered liquidity resets that cleared significant weak-handed positions. Last week’s sweep into 3447 activated premium liquidity, trapping late buyers at the edge of impulsive highs. But the game is far from over — smart money continues to rotate liquidity at these extreme levels, using premium expansion to build further trap pockets both above and below. Behind this technical expansion, macro tensions continue to fuel underlying gold demand. Geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated with the Middle East escalation risk growing, while recent Fed positioning keeps rate path expectations flexible. The upcoming FOMC decision later this week will likely act as the true liquidity catalyst — until then, gold remains positioned for further inducement cycles as both buyers and sellers continue to get baited into traps. 🔼 Premium Supply Zones Price Zone Description 3447 – 3470 Weak high sweep — premium liquidity trap fully active 3500 – 3525 Main extension liquidity pocket — Fibonacci cluster (1.272 & 1.414 extensions) 3550 – 3570 Exhaustion inducement — full 1.618 premium extension stack 🔽 Demand Defense Zones Price Zone Description 3415 – 3395 Minor imbalance recalibration — short-term liquidity refill zone 3365 – 3345 Core breakout OB + FVG overlap — main recalibration zone if pullbacks extend 3285 – 3265 HTF bullish structure base — BOS origin + deep recalibration defense level 🎯 Where We Stand Right Now ✅ Smart money holds full control inside premium expansion. ✅ Inducement layers remain open both above and below current price. ✅ We expect short-term liquidity sweeps before any major expansion unfolds. ✅ No change in bias — bullish structure remains valid while 3285 holds. 🔐 The Mindset 👉 This is not the place for aggressive chasing. 👉 Liquidity will continue to hunt both sides into key events ahead. 👉 Our job is not to predict, but to position with discipline once liquidity confirms displacement inside the calibrated zones. 🚀 If this breakdown helps you stay locked: 💬 Drop a 🚀, leave your thoughts & follow for full sniper-level updates as we approach a volatile week ahead. Stay sharp — the trap is already in play. — GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
XAU/USD 4H Technical Analysis 13 June 2025Market Structure & Bias: On the 4H chart, gold has broken out of a recent sideways range and formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This “break of structure” (BOS) through the old swing high confirms a bullish bias. Price action respects key support zones (demand areas) on retracements, suggesting underlying buying interest. The overall bias is bullish, driven by risk‐off sentiment. Support and resistance act as natural pause/reversal zones For example, a demand zone/order block around ~3390–3400 (from the prior swing low) has been tested and held, fueling the recent rally. Likewise, an imbalance (fair value gap) left below 3400 could attract buyers if price returns. We also note that a change of character (CHOCH) would occur only if price breaks below a higher-low; so far that has not happened. In short, gold’s 4H market structure is bullish (higher highs/lows) and the trend looks set to continue upward unless a strong reversal forms. Key Levels (4H): We use classic pivot points to mark critical levels (using the last 4H high, low, close). Pivot points can project future support and resistance. Based on recent swings, key levels are: Pivot: 3424 (calculated from last bar’s H/L/C) Support 1: 3413 Support 2: 3399 Support 3: 3374 Resistance 1: 3438 Resistance 2: 3449 Resistance 3: 3474 Price currently hovers just below R1. These levels align with congestion zones and Fib retracements (50–61.8% of the last $3290–3427 upswing), so expect active bidding near S1–S2 and selling around R1–R2. Intraday 1H Trade Setups Buy Zone ~3395–3405 (Bullish OB/Demand): Entry: Long on dips into the order-block/demand area near 3395–3405 (just above S1). Stop: ~3385 (≈$10 below entry zone). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3438 (Resistance 1), TP2 ≈ 3450 (near R2). Reason: This zone aligns with a prior institutional order block/demand and a 61.8% Fib retrace of the recent rally. Price has shown bounce here before, so a bullish reaction is likely. Trigger: Look for a bullish reversal candle (e.g. bullish engulfing or pin bar) on 1H in this zone, or a market structure low (MSL) turning point. A break back above the high of that candle can serve as confirmation to enter. Sell Zone ~3435–3445 (Bearish Retrace): Entry: Short near resistance around 3435–3445 (just below R1–R2). Stop: ~3455 (≈$10 above entry zone). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3413 (Support 1), TP2 ≈ 3399 (Support 2). Reason: This area is the upper end of the recent range. It contains a minor supply zone and the R1–R2 pivots. A liquidity sweep (stop-hunt) may occur above recent highs. If price loses momentum here, expect a pullback. Trigger: Watch for a bearish price action signal (e.g. a bearish engulfing candle or a double-top swing) on 1H. A break of the immediate lower low (lower than the last minor swing) would confirm a short-term change of character and signal entry. Breakout Long ~3449+: Entry: Long on a sustained break above R2 (≈3450). Confirm entry when price closes above 3449 on 1H. Stop: ~3424 (just under the Pivot). Targets: TP1 ≈ 3474 (Resistance 3), TP2 ≈ 3495+ (new highs). Reason: A clean breakout of 3450 would indicate strong bullish order flow and trigger stop-run triggers. This would be a continuation trade in line with the 4H uptrend. Trigger: A bullish candle closing above 3449 (ideally with above-average size) or a 1H break of structure (higher high over 3449) would signal entry. Takeaway: Gold remains in a bullish 4H trend; focus on buying dips into demand zones and watch for clear candlestick triggers at support/resistance.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
Judas Swing Monday Recap – Sticking to the Plan Pays 09/06/2025In case you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy, here’s the strategy in a nutshell: It’s a classic price manipulation strategy where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), usually after the 00:00–08:30 EST window, before sharply reversing. This tactic is often used by smart money to trap retail traders around key highs/lows, followed by a reversal into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) for entry confirmation. We began Monday spotting a textbook Judas Swing on FX:EURUSD which was our first trade of the day. Price took out session lows, grabbing liquidity, then gave us a break of structure to the upside and a clean reversal into the FVG. We entered long with our stop loss below the manipulation low. The trade moved nicely into profit and came within points of our target but just as we were anticipating a clean 1:2, price stalled and reversed aggressively, stopping us out. Trade Outcome: Loss Risk-Reward: -1% Lesson: Even the most valid setups will sometimes fail The next Judas swing setup came on $GBPUSD. Price swept the low of the zone, then gave a break of structure, with price retracing into the FVG. We entered long, placing the stop loss 10 pips below entry price. The trade rallied hard post-entry, hitting our target with minimal drawdown Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% This is why we take every valid setup. The win here offset the earlier FX:EURUSD loss, keeping us net even on the day at this point The final Judas swing setup on Monday was on OANDA:AUDUSD , and it couldn’t have been cleaner. After a strong sweep of previous lows, price reversed and broke structure convincingly. An FVG formed and price retraced into it beautifully. We entered long, placing the stop below the liquidity sweep. Price then rallied steadily throughout the session, and retraced almost hitting our stop loss but turned around and hit our 1:2 target. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: +2% Despite starting the day with a loss, staying disciplined and trading all valid Judas setups left us with: 1 loss ( FX:EURUSD -1%) 2 wins ( FX:GBPUSD +2%, OANDA:AUDUSD +2%) Net Gain: +3R This is why a rules-based approach beats emotional trading. Stick to the process, and the edge takes care of the rest.
by CleoFinance
Decision Day: Flip or Fail?” — XAUUSD Sniper Battlefield Plan👋 Hello gold tacticians — we’ve entered a key battlefield. Price is hovering in a critical flip zone after a sweep of 3395, and with ADP Non-Farm + ISM Services PMI coming up, the market won’t stay neutral for long. This is not a time for random trades. Let’s lock in real zones and prepare for both traps and confirmations. 🎯 🟡 Neutral Bias Price is in a flip zone (3345–3352) → Not clearly bullish or bearish. We’ve seen both buying pressure from 3320s and strong rejection from 3395. Market is ranging between premium and discount — no confirmed trend. ⚠️ Bearish Weight (Slight Tilt) 3384–3395 sweep confirms liquidity trap. RSI divergence + price rejected from premium supply. FVG gap under price (3303–3289) remains unfilled — likely draw. Big news (ADP + ISM) may trigger stop hunts — downside has better structure for continuation. ✅ Conclusion: We are neutral, but leaning bearish unless price confirms a clean break and hold above 3395. You should follow structure shifts on M15/H1 after ADP before committing fully to either side. 🟡 Neutral Decision Zone – The Flip Battlefield 3345 – 3352 → Previously acted as resistance — now tested as support → This is neutral ground — confirmation will decide if we bounce or dump → Use only with clear M15 PA 🧠 Wait here — bulls and bears will fight it out. 🔻 SELL ZONES – Premium Traps Zone Key Levels Why it Matters 🔺 Main Rejection Block 3384 – 3395 Sweep + FVG + OB cluster — price was rejected here. If tapped again → watch for M15 bearish shift. 🔺 Flip Trap Extension 3368 – 3375 Previous broken high. If price fails to stay above → good place for fakeout sell. 🔺 Ultimate Premium Trap 3412 – 3422 Extreme liquidity grab if market spikes after ADP. Use only if FOMO buyers get trapped. 🟢 BUY ZONES – Smart Demand Levels Zone Key Levels Why it Matters 🟢 Active Rebound Zone 3330 – 3320 OB + FVG + current HL reaction. Great sniper long if price holds. 🟢 Reload Buy Pocket 3303 – 3289 Fresh NY FVG + EMA confluence + liquidity. If ADP gives downside wick, this is the reload zone. 🟢 Final Demand Block 3265 – 3278 Deep sweep zone from H4. If hit → expect strong reaction. HL or M15 BOS confirms. 🔍 Strategy Scenarios 📉 Sell Plan A → Spike into 3384–3395 → M15/M30 bearish shift → short to 3352 → then 3320 📉 Sell Plan B → Flip rejection from 3368–3375 → short scalp to 3330 📉 Sell Plan C → FOMO sweep into 3412+ → wait for reversal wick → high-RR short 📈 Buy Plan A → Bounce from 3330–3320 → confirm HL → long toward 3368 📈 Buy Plan B → Flush into 3303–3289 → watch for OB reaction + PA → long scalp toward 3345 📈 Buy Plan C → Extreme dip to 3265 → reversal PA → long to 3300+ ⚙️ Market Context EMA 5/21/50 bullish but stretched Price is compressing under a sweep — not trending ADP + ISM = volatility trap window RSI showing bearish divergence in premium 💬 Final Words from GoldFxMinds Gold is standing in the middle of a flip battlefield. It doesn’t matter if you’re bullish or bearish — what matters is structure and reaction. Let the market reveal its hand. 🎯 Stay out of noise. Wait for the trigger. Act with clarity. If this breakdown helped you today: ❤️ Drop a LIKE 🧠 Leave a COMMENT on what you’re watching 📌 And FOLLOW GoldFxMinds for clean, structured daily plans Let’s dominate June with patience and precision. — GoldFxMinds
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
USDCHF SELL IDEAUSDCHF is Ready to continue It's SELL Move to the higher time frame recent swing low of 0.803. SELL IDEA BREAKDOWN; Weekly is bearish and price is moving closer to the 0.803 swing low. Daily is also bearish, price is moving towards the weekly swing low. 4HR had a bearish break in market structure, followed by a retest of the recent swing low that was broken by price to give MSS. My entry was taken after the formation of a swing low and price is done retesting the old low. This is a continuation trade.
Short
by Elijahenoch7
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26-28/05/2025Incase you're new to the Judas Swing Strategy and want to know what the strategy is about, it is a classic price manipulation concept where the market fakes a move in one direction (the “Judas” move), only to reverse and trend in the opposite direction. It’s common during 00:00 - 08:30 EST openings, often used by smart money to trap retail traders. It’s especially powerful when paired with liquidity grabs above/below key highs or lows, followed by a reversal into a FVG confirmation On Monday, we identified a clean Judas Swing setup. Price spiked below previous lows, giving us a bias to look for potential buying setups after what looked like a classic liquidity grab. We got a break of structure and a reversal into the FVG created. However, after entry, price failed to reject meaningfully and instead continued lower only after taking out the low, hitting our stop loss before any major move up. We lost 1% on this trade and the lesson all traders need to learn here is that even valid setups will fail and you'll lose money at some point when trading. Fast forward to Wednesday We saw a similar manipulation as price spiked below recent Judas swing zones during NY session, grabbing sell-side liquidity before reversing sharply. We waited for confirmation a strong bullish engulfing and break of minor structure. Entry was taken long, with stop loss 10 pips below the liquidity grab and target at previous structure highs. The trade ran smoothly into profit, validating the setup and recovering the week's earlier loss. Trade Outcome: Win Risk-Reward: Clean 1:2 Notes traders need to take from this trade: - Perfect Judas Swing after liquidity sweep - Patience for confirmation paid off - Structure shift confirmed smart money reversal
by CleoFinance
Trading AUDUSD NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 20/05/2025We’re halfway through the week and already sitting on two clean setups, all rooted in the Judas Swing Strategy. After Monday gave us nothing worth trading, Tuesday served up textbook opportunities on OANDA:AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. In this breakdown, we’ll walk through two trades from Tuesday and highlight how they followed the exact Judas Swing playbook: manipulation first, then break of structure, retracement and execution AUDUSD: The Classic Fakeout Reversal Tuesday's OANDA:AUDUSD setup was as clean as they come. Price action leading into our session was heading downward. Liquidity had built up nicely above and below our zones giving us the bait we needed for the Judas Swing setup to trigger. As expected, our session opened with a sharp fake move to the downside, sweeping the sell-side liquidity and trapping breakout sellers. What came next was the real clue: a decisive break of structure to the upside, signaling that the manipulation was complete and the true direction was about to unfold. Price formed a Fair Value Gap (FVG) during the move up, and once it retraced into that imbalance, we executed our buy: Entry: 0.64007 Stop Loss: 0.63907 Take Profit: 0.64207 The result? We faced some drawdown and a clean move into target. It was a low-stress trade that respected the plan from entry to exit NZDUSD: Same Script If OANDA:AUDUSD was the blueprint, OANDA:NZDUSD mirrored it almost exactly since they are closely correlated pairs. Again, we started the session with a tight range. Liquidity had stacked nicely above and below the zone. Then, right on cue, the market delivered its Judas move, a fast pump below the pre-session lows, baiting in breakout shorts. This was followed by a swift rejection and a clear break of structure to the upside. Once that displacement printed a Fair Value Gap, we knew where our opportunity lay. Entry: 0.59002 Stop Loss: 0.58902 Take Profit: 0.59202 We entered on the retrace, and price moved smoothly in our favor. The difference here? We barely faced any drawdown on this trade as it moved straight to hit our TP putting us up 4% on the two trades These setups reinforce why the Judas Swing Strategy is so effective in manipulated markets: - We don’t chase breakouts we wait for the trap - We don’t force trades we wait for displacement and confirmation - We trust our backtested process even when we miss trades or price misses TP by a whisker Not every trade will close out perfectly, but this method is built around structured logic and patience
by CleoFinance
SUI - Leveraging Fibonacci & Elliott for Precision TradesSUI’s movement is rapid, sharp swings—both up and down. In volatile conditions like this, we aim 0.702–0.786 fib retracements (and occasionally 0.886 in harmonic contexts) for high‑probability entries. Below is a clear, Elliott-focused breakdown of the current setup and both long and short trade plans. Before diving into the charts, let’s cover the basics of Elliott Wave Theory. Elliott Wave Theory provides a roadmap for market psychology by dividing price action into two distinct phases: 1. Impulse Phase (Waves 1–5) Wave 1: The spark that ignites a new trend as early adopters push prices beyond the prior range. Wave 2: A corrective pullback that tests the strength of the emerging trend, often retracing 38–61.8%. Wave 3: The powerhouse wave—typically the longest and most dynamic—driven by broad market participation and often extending to key Fibonacci levels (1.618, 2.618). Wave 4: A consolidating correction that digests gains and builds the base for the final thrust; it must not overlap Wave 1 territory in a classic impulse. Wave 5: The final leg of the advance, often fueled by last bursts of optimism and weaker hands. 2. Corrective Phase (Waves A–B–C) Wave A: Initial counter-trend reaction as profit-taking begins. Wave B: A deceptive retracement back toward the trend, frequently trapping traders. Wave C: The concluding leg of the correction, which typically tests or breaks the low of Wave A before the next cycle begins. Key Points: Impulse waves showcase momentum and structural clarity, often aligning with Fibonacci extensions. Corrective waves follow Fibonacci retracements (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%), offering optimal entry points. Wave 3 is seldom the shortest; Wave 4’s complexity sets the stage for Wave 5’s final push. In the current SUI structure: Wave 1 ignited the initial rally. Wave 2 delivered a healthy retracement, a pullback close to the 0.618 fib, setting the stage for stronger momentum. Wave 3 roared to a powerful peak topped at the 2.618 extension ($3.875) Now, we’re deep into Wave 4, likely an ABC corrective pattern. This pause is critical—it gathers energy before the final push of Wave 5. Below is a clear breakdown of each wave, big-picture confluences, and trade setups. 🚀 Elliott Wave Overview 1. Wave 1 & Wave 2 Wave 1: Quick surge from $2.4175 → $2.75, setting initial momentum. Wave 2: Pulled back close to the 0.618 fib, creating a solid launchpad. 2. Wave 3: The Power Move Peak: Hit the 2.618 extension of Wave 1→2 and aligned with the –2 extension of Wave 1. Significance: In strong bull markets, a run to the 2.618 extension often precedes a meaningful pullback. Here, Wave 3’s exhaustion suggests a retrace toward the 38.2% Fib of that advance—our ideal Wave 4 entry zone. 3. Wave 4: The Correction All eyes on the $3.17 level—the projected 1:1 extension of A→B and 0.382 fib retracement of Wave 3. This confluence zone is yet to be tested and could offer an ideal Wave 4 entry. ABC Pattern: Currently working on Wave C. 4. Wave 5: The Finale Target Zone: $4.00–$4.35, with strong focus at $4.31 Extension Levels: 1.133 → $3.9695 aligns with the 0.618 fib retracement. 1.272 → $4.0683 is close to the weekly resistance level. 1.412 → $4.1678 alings with the 0.666 fib retracement. 1.618 → $4.3142 alings with the key swing high. 🔑 Key Confluence Levels Golden Pocket: $3.9739–$4.1492 (90-day retrace). Speed Fan 0.618: Support around $3.15. Fair Value Gap: Psychological: $3.00 major support. 📈 Long Trade Setup Entry Ladder: $3.25–$3.111 (stack orders to DCA) Stop‑Loss: $3.07 (just below the 0.786 Fib low) Profit Targets: Fib 1.133 at $3.9795 ($4 psychological & partial take‑profit) Fib 1.272 at $4.0683 Fib 1.412 at $4.1678 Fib 1.618 at $4.3142 Risk:Reward: ~6:1+ (average entry around $3.20 → SL at $3.07 → TP1 at $3.9795) 📉 Short Trade Setup Entry Zone: $4.00–$4.35 (sweet spot at weekly level/yearly open) Confirmation: Bearish reversal candle or volume spike down Stop‑Loss: Above $4.35 Target: $3.77 (near Wave 3 high turned support) Risk:Reward: ~2:1 (varies with DCA entry) ⚙️ Summary & Game Plan Primary Bias: Long in the $3.25–$3.111 zone—stack into the 0.382-0.412 fib retracement entries with tight SL, aiming for the $4.00–$4.30 upside zone. Alternate Bias: Short on a clear rejection within $4.00–$4.35, targeting $3.77 or lower. Risk Management: Keep stops tight to maximize R:R. Patience & Confirmation: Wait for price to reach these zones and show reversal signals (price action, volume, patterns) before committing. All set—now let SUI’s swings unveil the opportunities. Sit tight, follow your plan, and let patience pay its dividend. Happy Trading! ____________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Long
by SiDec
26
HOW To use Order Flow / Delta Volume Indicator to identify TrapOrder Flow / Delta Volume Indicator: Performance & Trap Identification Analysis ### Overview The Order Flow / Delta Volume Indicator analyzes real-time buying and selling imbalances , accurately capturing momentum shifts and highlighting potential market traps . This analysis clearly demonstrates the indicator’s effectiveness in pinpointing trend reversals, momentum shifts, and identifying price traps. Indicator Functionality - ** Order Flow Dynamics **: Tracks cumulative buy/sell volumes, indicating shifts in market sentiment. - ** Delta Volume Analysis* *: Highlights buyer-seller imbalances, pinpointing precise moments of significant market activity or divergences. - **Signal Logic**: - ** Buy Signals **: Generated when positive order flow aligns with positive delta, suggesting buying dominance. - ** Sell Signals **: Produced when negative order flow and negative delta indicate increased selling pressure. - ** Trap Identification **: Divergence between cumulative delta and price direction signals potential market traps . For instance, rising prices with declining cumulative delta suggest weakening buying pressure and possible bearish reversals (traps). Performance Insights (from chart) 1. **Bullish & Bearish Signal Accuracy** - Clear, timely bullish and bearish signals aligned precisely with genuine market momentum shifts. - Robust performance capturing sharp upward and downward price movements, validated by volume spikes. 2. **Effective Market Trap Identification** - Detected key divergences between cumulative delta and price movement, effectively highlighting potential market traps. - Example highlighted: recent market scenario where price rose while cumulative delta declined, signaling weakening bullish momentum and indicating a potential bearish reversal. 3. **Momentum Shift Reliability** - Successfully differentiated significant momentum changes from short-lived price movements. - Signals consistently matched subsequent market behavior, reinforcing the indicator’s reliability. Key Takeaways ✅ Accurate and timely identification of trend reversals and continuation. ✅ Effective in highlighting divergences, significantly aiding in identifying market traps. ✅ Clear volume-based signals, ensuring traders can easily interpret market conditions. ✅ Consistent performance across diverse market scenarios, demonstrating strong analytical capability. The Order Flow / Delta Volume Indicator remains an essential tool, reliably capturing crucial market turns and effectively highlighting potential traps through clear cumulative delta divergences.
by TradeTechanalysis
Trading GBPUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 25/03/2025We had a good trading session with the Judas Swing Strategy two weeks ago, as the strategy delivered 3 solid setups, 2 on FX:EURUSD and 1 on $GBPUSD. And guess what? All three hit their targets! That’s a massive 6% gain for the week! And with these impressive results we wanted to see how the strategy will perform last week. The strategy did not produce any setups on the currency pair we monitor ( FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ) on Monday 24th March and instead of forcing setups like other traders would we sat that day out. Why was this possible? we had backtested the strategy and had enough data to prove that when we stick to this strategy long term we'd be in putting ourselves in a profitable position. On Tuesday, we returned to the trading desk, scouting for setups, when we noticed a potential opportunity on $GBPUSD. The currency pair had swept liquidity at the high of our zone, signaling a possible shift in direction. We then shifted our focus to selling opportunities for the session. Our strategy required waiting for a break of structure to the downside, followed by a retracement into the FVG before executing a trade After waiting for an hour and 15 minutes, we finally got the break of structure to the downside. The only step left was a retrace into the FVG. After some patience, the retrace materialized, meeting all the criteria on our entry checklist. We executed the trade, risking 1% of our account with a target return of 2% Trade Details: Entry: 1.29513 Stop Loss: 1.29611 Take Profit: 1.29311 After entering the trade, price consolidated around our entry point for a while, showing no clear direction. However, we remained unfazed, trusting our well-backtested strategy, which has a 50% win rate. With a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, we know that consistently following our strategy will yield profits in the long run. Since we had risked only what we could afford to lose, the slow price movement didn’t shake our confidence Unfortunately, this trade didn’t go in our favor and ended up hitting our stop loss. This serves as a reminder that not every trade will reach take profit and that’s perfectly okay. Losses are an inevitable part of trading, but what truly matters is maintaining a solid risk management strategy, sticking to a proven system, and thinking long-term. As traders, our edge comes not from winning every trade, but from executing consistently and letting probabilities play out over time
by CleoFinance
How to Spot Market Turns using Order Flow & Delta Volume Ind.Overview The Order Flow / Delta Volume Indicator combines order flow dynamics with delta volume analysis , pinpointing market shifts by tracking buying and selling pressure . This chart analysis demonstrates how effectively the indicator identifies precise moments of market turns and shifts in momentum. How It Works Order Flow Dynamics Tracks cumulative buying and selling volumes. Identifies potential reversals by highlighting shifts in order flow direction. Delta Volume Analysis Measures the difference between buying and selling volume (delta). Pinpoints exact candles where buyer-seller imbalance occurs. Signal Generation Logic Buy signals emerge when order flow and delta volume confirm rising buying pressure. Sell signals appear when order flow combined with negative delta signals increased selling activity. Signal Confirmation (Magical part of this Indicator), Blue line inlines with trend to confirm the strength, else it's a trap move. Performance in This Case Study Market Reversal Precision Accurately highlighted buy signals at key reversal points where bullish order flow resumed. Provided timely sell signals precisely at points of bearish order flow dominance. Trend Confirmation Signals effectively filtered market noise, clearly distinguishing actual trend shifts from temporary price fluctuations. Consistent alignment of signals with subsequent price action confirmed robust indicator performance. Volume-Based Clarity (Blue Line) Delta volume effectively differentiated real momentum changes from false breakouts. Order flow dynamics reliably indicated market sentiment shifts, offering clarity in volatile conditions. Key Takeaways ✅ Order flow shifts clearly indicated genuine trend reversals. ✅ Delta volume accurately pinpointed moments of market imbalance. ✅ Signals reliably differentiated between temporary fluctuations and meaningful market movements. ✅ Indicator performance remained robust across varying market conditions. This indicator's precise alignment with market behavior underscores its practical utility in identifying and analyzing market turns.
by TradeTechanalysis
Trading GBPUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 18/03/2025Last week, the Judas Swing strategy only gave us 2 setups on FX:AUDUSD , but both hit their targets, locking in a solid 4% gain! Proof that patience and discipline always win in the long run. After these results, we were eager to see how the strategy would perform this week. And sure enough, a setup emerged on FX:GBPUSD on Tuesday! Let’s take you through how this trade played out On Monday, we scanned our usual currency pairs ( FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , FX:EURUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ) for potential setups, but none met our criteria so we stayed on the sidelines. Then came Tuesday, and a promising setup started taking shape on $GBPUSD. That got us excited and we were eager to see how this trade would unfold! After liquidity was swept from the lows of our range, our focus shifted to potential buying opportunities. To confirm our bias, we needed to see a break of structure to the upside before committing to the trade. Twenty-five minutes later, we got a break of structure to the upside, confirming our bias. This move left behind a Fair Value Gap (FVG), signaling an inefficiency in pricing. We now anticipate a retracement to fill this imbalance once that happens, we'll be ready to enter the trade The next five minute candle entered and closed in the imbalance which meant we could execute our trade using 1% of our trading account and aiming for a 2% return, ensuring our winners outweigh our losers. With this strategy maintaining a win rate of around 50%, sticking to it consistently positions us for long-term profitability After executing the trade, we faced a deep drawdown, a moment where many traders who over-leverage might panic as price edged closer to the stop loss. But we remained unfazed. Why? Because we only risked what we could afford to lose, staying disciplined and accepting whatever outcome the trade would bring—win or lose. Upon checking the trade once again, we noticed price had turned around and begun moving in our intended direction which was good to see but the objective had not been met so we had to be patient and wait for the final outcome of the trade After 3 hours and 15 minutes, our FX:GBPUSD trade finally hit take profit, securing a 2% gain so far this week, all from a well-managed 1% risk
by CleoFinance
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 07/03/2025Last week was a slow one for the Judas Swing strategy, with barely any setups presenting themselves. Throughout the week, we closely monitored the currency pairs we trade ( FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , OANDA:AUDUSD , and OANDA:NZDUSD ) scouting for setups with the Judas swing strategy. After days of waiting, a promising opportunity finally emerged on $AUDUSD. In this write-up, we’ll take you through the details of how this trade unfolded. We arrived at our trading desk five minutes before our trading session began and immediately started looking for potential setups. After 35 minutes, we saw a sweep of liquidity at the lows of $AUDUSD. The next requirement on our checklist was to wait for a break of structure (BOS) to the buy side to confirm our bias. An hour later, the BOS finally occurred, leaving us with just one last condition to fulfill before executing our trade. We saw a retrace into the Fair Value Gap (FVG), completing all the criteria on our entry checklist. With our conditions met, we executed the trade with the following parameters: Entry: 0.63024 Stop Loss (SL): 0.62822 Take Profit (TP): 0.83431 After executing the trade, we were in profit for a few minutes before price reversed, putting us in deep drawdown. But did this phase us? Not at all. Why? Because we had risked only 1% of our trading account an amount we were fully prepared to lose. This meant that regardless of the trade’s outcome, it wouldn’t affect us emotionally or disrupt our trading mindset. This is exactly how we want you, as traders, to approach the market. When you risk only what you can afford to lose, you protect yourself psychologically, avoid unnecessary emotional stress, and create the foundation for long term success. Trading with this mindset will allow you to stay disciplined, make rational decisions, and ultimately see better results When we checked on the trade again, we saw that we were back in profit. We didn’t let this affect our mindset because our objective for this trade had not yet been met. Instead of getting caught up in temporary gains, we remained patient and focused, waiting for the trade to play out fully Unfortunately, we had to hold this trade longer than expected as we waited for the final outcome. This time our patience didn’t pay off, and our OANDA:AUDUSD trade ended in a loss. Some of you may be wondering why did we hold for so long? Based on our backtesting data, the odds are in our favor when we take a set-and-forget approach rather than actively managing the trade by moving stops to breakeven after reaching 1R or taking partial profits. We have a system, and we followed it. Our data has shown that sticking to this strategy yields better results over time. As traders, we encourage you to remain disciplined and trust your system. No matter the outcome of a single trade, staying committed to your plan is a win in itself
by CleoFinance
Order Imbalance and Change Point Detection█ Order Imbalance and Change Point Detection Trading might sometimes seem like magic, but at its core, the market operates on simple principles, supply and demand, and the flow of information. Recent academic work shows that retail traders can gain an edge even without expensive data feeds by understanding some fundamental ideas, like order imbalance and change point detection. In this article, we break down key concepts such as order imbalance, sudden volume shifts, change point detection, and the CUSUM algorithm. We also explain how retail traders can apply these ideas to improve their strategies. █ What Is the Order Book and Order Imbalance? ⚪ The Order Book Every market has an order book, simply a list of all buy orders (bids) and sell orders (asks) for an asset. ⚪ Order Imbalance – A Key Indicator Order imbalance measures the difference between the total buying and selling orders for the order book. Definition: Order imbalance is the difference in volume between buy orders and sell orders. Why It Matters: A strong imbalance means one side (buyers or sellers) is dominating. For example, if there are significantly more buy orders than sell orders, the market may be gearing up for a price increase. ⚪ How It’s Detected in Research: Researchers calculate a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) across multiple price levels in the order book (typically the top 20 levels) and compare it to the mid-market price. A positive imbalance indicates aggressive buying, while a negative imbalance suggests selling pressure. █ Sudden Volume Shifts and Change Point Detection ⚪ Sudden Volume Shifts What It Means: Sometimes, there is an abrupt and noticeable change in the number of orders placed. This sudden shift in volume can signal a big move on the horizon. Example: In a trading context, this might be seen when volume bars spike unexpectedly on a price chart, often accompanying rapid price moves or breakouts. ⚪ Why They Are Crucial: Sudden volume increases often coincide with significant order flow events. For instance, if a large number of buy orders hit the market at once, this could indicate a rapid shift in trader sentiment and serve as a precursor to a sustained price move. █ Change Point Detection – Spotting the Shift Definition: Change point detection is a statistical technique used to identify the exact moment when the properties of a data series change significantly. Purpose: In trading, it helps distinguish meaningful shifts in market behavior from random noise. How It’s Used: Researchers apply this to order imbalance data to flag moments when the market’s buying or selling pressure changes abruptly. These flagged moments (or “change points”) can then be used to forecast short-term price movements. █ Meet CUSUM: The Cumulative Sum Algorithm CUSUM stands for Cumulative Sum. It’s a simple yet powerful algorithm that detects changes in a data series over time. ⚪ How CUSUM Works: Tracking Deviations: The algorithm continuously adds up minor differences (or deviations) from an expected value (like a running average). Signal for Change: When the cumulative sum exceeds a predetermined threshold, it signals that a significant change has occurred. In Trading: CUSUM can be applied to measure the order imbalance. When the cumulative deviation is high enough, it indicates a strong change in market pressure, an early warning signal for a potential price move. For example, a rising cumulative sum based on increasing buy-side pressure might indicate that the price will likely move upward. █ How Can Retail Traders Benefit Without Full LOB Data? Full access to the order book (all price levels and orders) can be expensive and is usually reserved for institutional traders. However, retail traders can still gain valuable insights by: ⚪ Using Proxies for Order Imbalance: Many trading platforms offer basic volume indicators. Look for volume spikes or unusual shifts in trading volume as a sign that order imbalance might occur. ⚪ Leveraging Simplified Change Detection: Even if you don’t have complex LOB data, you can set up simple alerts on your trading platform. For instance, you might create a custom indicator that watches for rapid increases in volume or price moves, similar to a basic version of the CUSUM algorithm. ⚪ Focusing on Key Price Levels: Even with limited data, monitor support and resistance levels. A sudden break (accompanied by high volume) can serve as a proxy for a change in market dynamics. ⚪ Adopting a Data-Driven Mindset: Integrate these concepts into your routine analysis. When you see a significant volume shift or a sudden spike in activity, consider it a potential “change point” and adjust your strategy accordingly. █ In Summary Order Imbalance measures the difference between buying and selling volumes in the order book, offering insights into market direction. Sudden Volume Shifts are significant changes in trading volume that can signal a shift in market sentiment. Change Point Detection helps identify the precise moments when these shifts occur, filtering out noise and highlighting actionable signals. CUSUM is a powerful tool that continuously tracks cumulative deviations in market data, alerting traders when the market undergoes a significant change. For retail traders, these methods underscore the importance of watching price and understanding the underlying order flow. While you might not have access to full-depth order book data, using volume indicators and setting up alert systems can help you capture the essence of these insights, providing a valuable edge in your trading decisions. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
2
USD/JPY Market Analysis – Potential Reversal or Continuation?This 15-minute chart of USD/JPY displays a clear bullish impulse following a Change of Character (ChoCh) and a Break of Structure (BoS) . Price action has reached a key resistance zone, and traders are now anticipating the next move based on market reactions. Key Observations : 1. Change of Character (ChoCh) : - This indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. - The market rejected lower prices and started forming higher highs and higher lows. 2. b]Break of Structure (BoS) : - This confirms bullish momentum as previous resistance levels are broken. - A strong bullish move suggests demand is dominating. 3. Current Price Action : - The price has approached a liquidity zone (previous high). - Potential rejection at this level suggests profit-taking or a shift in order flow. Possible Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Continuation : - If price retraces into the M15 demand zone (marked on the chart) and finds support, a continuation to the upside is likely. - A break above the current high could push price towards 149.950 or even 150.000. ❌ Bearish Reversal : - If price aggressively rejects the current high and breaks the M15 demand zone , we could see a bearish move towards **149.100 - 148.900**. - This would indicate a deeper correction or potential trend reversal. Trading Plan: - **Wait for confirmation at the M15 demand zone.** - **Look for bullish price action signals for continuation trades.** - **If demand fails, shift bias to bearish setups.** 📌 Conclusion : USD/JPY is at a critical decision point. The next move will depend on whether buyers defend the demand zone or if sellers step in to drive price lower. Stay patient and react to market structure shifts accordingly. 🚀📉
by BeaucoupPips
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 26/02/2025Last week the Judas Swing strategy had another action-packed week! As we took four trades across our selected currency pairs ( FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , FX:EURUSD , OANDA:NZDUSD ), securing two wins and two losses, but still closing the week with a solid 2% gain. Given the strategy’s consistency over the past few weeks and months, we were eager to see how it would perform this week. On Monday, we waited for a setup on FX:EURUSD , but it fell just a few pipettes short of meeting all the criteria on our checklist. Since one key requirement wasn’t met, we stayed disciplined and skipped the trade. Now, here’s the important part—although that trade ended up being a winner, it didn’t bother us. Why? Because it didn’t align with our strategy, and we don’t risk our hard-earned money on trades that don’t check all the boxes. If you find yourself entering random trades, it’s time to create a checklist and stick to it. Discipline is what separates consistent traders from gamblers. Fast forward to Wednesday, we spotted a promising setup on FX:AUDUSD and we were eager to see how the session would unfold. After a sweep of liquidity at the lows, our focus immediately shifted to potential buying opportunities. Once we got a break of structure to the upside, all that was left was a retrace into the FVG before executing the trade. But patience was key—we reminded ourselves of Monday’s setup, where a similar scenario played out, yet the retrace never came. That trade had to be left behind, and we weren’t about to force an entry this time either Finally, price retraced into the FVG, and as soon as that candle closed, we were ready to execute the trade. We risk 1% per trade with the goal of securing a 2% return ensuring our wins outweigh our losses over time. With this strategy’s win rate hovering around 50%, sticking to our rules keeps us on the path to long-term profitability After entering the trade, we experienced a slight drawdown for less than five minutes, dipping just 2 pips nothing out of the ordinary. Our entry candle had closed in our intended direction, so we stayed patient. Soon after, price moved decisively in our favor, hitting our target in just 1 hour and 10 minutes. Our patience paid off this time with a solid 2% return on a trade where we had only risked 1%.
by CleoFinance
Closing Auctions: How Order Imbalances Shape Market Prices█ The Final 15 Minutes: How Closing Auctions Determine Market Pricing Every trading day ends with one of the most crucial events in financial markets — the closing auction. While many traders focus on intraday price movements, understanding the dynamics of closing auctions can provide valuable insights and profitable trading opportunities. █ What Are Closing Auctions? Closing auctions are special trading sessions held at the end of the day across major and minor exchanges worldwide. They determine the official closing price of securities based on Market-on-Close (MOC) and Limit-on-Close (LOC) orders submitted before the market officially closes. These auctions are essential because institutions, index funds, and ETFs use the closing price for portfolio valuation, index tracking, and arbitrage strategies. In recent years, closing auction volumes have surged, now accounting for about 11% of total daily trading volume. █ Why Have Closing Auctions Grown in Importance? The increasing popularity of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is one major factor behind the growth of closing auctions. ETFs must ensure their prices align with the net asset value (NAV) of their holdings, and arbitrageurs use the closing auction to correct price imbalances. Additionally, large institutional investors prefer closing auctions to execute substantial trades with minimal market impact. These factors have led to a rise in order imbalances — where buy and sell orders significantly diverge — during the closing session. █ How Do Order Imbalances Affect Prices? Studies have found that stocks with large order imbalances tend to experience price distortions in the last 15 minutes of trading. Stocks with high buy imbalances typically outperform those with high sell imbalances during this period. However, about 83% of this price impact reverses over the next three to five days, suggesting a short-term trading opportunity. ⚪ Example: At 3:55 PM, the exchange releases imbalance data: Buy Imbalance: +500,000 shares (demand is high) Sell Imbalance: -200,000 shares (supply is lower) Since there are more buy orders than sell orders, buyers are forced to increase their bid prices to get filled. As a result, the price moves up sharply, reflecting the strong demand. This is exactly what we see in the chart—the buy-side midpoint jumps higher than the sell-side midpoint drops, confirming a buy-heavy imbalance in the closing auction. █ A Profitable Trading Strategy Based on Order Imbalances Based on historical data, traders can exploit these patterns using two different strategies: ⚪ Momentum Strategy (Short-Term): Buy stocks with the largest buy-side imbalances and short stocks with the largest sell-side imbalances 15 minutes before the market close. Close positions at the market close. ⚪ Reversal Strategy (Over Multiple Days): Do the opposite—short stocks with the highest buy imbalances and go long on stocks with the highest sell imbalances at the close, holding positions for about five days. Backtests of this strategy show that the momentum approach can yield approximately 32 basis points per trade, translating to an annualized return of 80% when executed systematically. However, traders must account for transaction costs and slippage. █ Real-World Example: NYSE Closing Auction Data for AAP (02/20/2025) To better understand how closing auction imbalances impact price movements, let's analyze the NYSE imbalance data for AAP on February 20, 2025. The data provides three key insights: Imbalance Trends: At 15:55 and 15:56, AAP had significant sell imbalances (-40,849 and -40,718, respectively). However, this shifted at 15:57, showing a smaller sell imbalance (-13,023), followed by a net buy imbalance at 15:58 (+11,403) and 15:59 (+6,764). The final imbalance before dissemination was -34,286. Paired Quantity Increase: The paired quantity, representing executed trades, consistently increased from 258,135 at 15:55 to 311,382 by the final dissemination, indicating heightened auction activity as the market prepared to close. Impact on Clearing Price: AAP's price began at $42.17 but surged to $44.66 by 15:58, aligning with buy imbalances. However, the price slightly retraced to $44.34 at final dissemination, reinforcing the tendency for short-term reversals after strong closing auction moves. This example highlights how traders can monitor closing auction imbalance data to anticipate price behavior in the final minutes of trading. For a more interactive exploration, check out the NYSE’s Closing Auction Imbalance Analysis Tool. █ What Does This Mean for Retail Traders? Pay Attention to the Closing Session: Many traders overlook the last 15 minutes of the market, but this period offers crucial insights into order flows and institutional activity. Watch for Order Imbalances: Exchanges like the NYSE release imbalance data at 3:45 PM, giving traders a window to react before the market close. Avoid Chasing Closing Prices: Since price reversals are common, buying into a strong closing auction rally may lead to short-term losses. Use Data & Tools to Your Advantage: Platforms like Polygon.io provide real-time and historical imbalance data, which can enhance trading decisions. █ Key Takeaways Closing auctions play a crucial role in determining end-of-day prices, affecting institutional strategies and index valuations. Order imbalances in the last 15 minutes of trading can create short-term price distortions, often reversing in the following days. Traders can capitalize on these imbalances using either a short-term momentum strategy or a multi-day reversal strategy. Understanding and leveraging closing auction dynamics can provide a significant trading edge. Closing auctions are more than just an end-of-day formality—they reveal important market sentiment and provide trading opportunities. Whether you are a day trader looking to capitalize on short-term price movements or a swing trader seeking to exploit reversals, understanding the role of order imbalances in closing auctions can give you an edge in the market. By incorporating these insights into your strategy, you can navigate the complexities of the market more effectively and make more informed trading decisions. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Zeiierman
1
Trading EURUSD and AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 18/02/2025The previous trading week wrapped up on a profitable note, delivering solid gains. We had the opportunity to take four trades on GBPUSD, NZDUSD, and AUDUSD, while EURUSD was the only pair that didn’t present any setups. Out of these four trades, three were winners, and only one resulted in a loss, allowing us to close the week with a 5% return. With such strong results, we were eager to see what opportunities this trading week would bring. By Tuesday, we had already taken two trades, and in this post, we’ll walk you through how they played out At 08:55 EST, both EURUSD and AUDUSD experienced a liquidity sweep, clearing out liquidity resting at the lows of their respective zones. This sweep on the lows directed our focus toward potential buying opportunities for the session on both pairs After patiently waiting, all our trade entry requirements aligned for both currency pairs, giving us the green light to execute. If you're wondering what our entry criteria are, here’s our checklist: 1. Break of structure to the upside 2. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) must be formed 3. Price must retrace into the FVG We don’t take trades unless all three conditions are met—no exceptions. Even if two out of three align, we stay on the sidelines. This disciplined approach helps us focus only on high-probability setups, increasing our edge in the market After execution, EURUSD wasted no time, hitting our take profit in just 1 hour and 25 minutes. AUDUSD had barely reached 1R within the same timeframe, signaling that this trade would require more patience. We were completely fine with this because we always risk only what we can afford to lose, which helps us stay detached from the outcome—win or lose. Plus, with EURUSD already securing a 2% gain, even a 1% loss on AUDUSD wouldn’t significantly impact our overall performance. Now, it’s just a matter of staying patient and letting the trade play out. This trade truly tested our patience. After a period of consolidation, it finally moved in our favor, allowing us to lock in a 2% gain after 15 hours and 15 minutes. Our total gain for the day reached 4%, making the session a solid success
by CleoFinance