XAUUSD : Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that the price continued its correction yesterday, dropping to as low as $3327. However, gold rebounded and is currently trading around the $3344 level.
The key condition for further bullish movement is a stable hold above $3338. If this level holds, the next potential upside targets are $3366 and $3399 respectively.
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J-GBPUSD
GBPUSD politics and the upcoming NFPFX_IDC:GBPUSD trading was influenced by politics in UK. The pair recovered half of the losses, but the downside risk still remains. NFP could be a trigger. Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:GBPUSD
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GBPUSD – Pound Stumbles on Political Risk and NFP FearGBPUSD – Pound Stumbles on Political Risk and NFP Fear: Reversal or Breakdown?
🧭 MACRO SNAPSHOT – All Eyes on UK Politics and US Jobs
The British Pound came under renewed pressure on Wednesday, losing nearly 0.8% intraday, driven largely by escalating political uncertainty in the UK. Concerns over early elections, party leadership instability, and fiscal doubts have weighed on GBP sentiment.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains supported ahead of the June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. With recent labor data showing signs of weakness (ADP: -33K), today’s NFP is expected to shape short-term Fed expectations. A weak report may cap USD gains and provide a rebound opportunity for GBP – but risk is two-sided.
📊 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – H4 Chart Insights:
Trend Channel: GBPUSD is still trading within an ascending channel, but recent rejection at 1.3769 raises caution.
EMA Signals: Price has broken below EMA 13 and 34, showing momentum loss. EMA 89 is the next possible support near 1.3570.
Fibonacci Zones:
0.382: 1.3543
0.5: 1.3466
0.618: 1.3390
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 1.3681 – 1.3769
Support: 1.3570 – 1.3450 (golden pocket)
The price is likely to test the midline or lower bound of the channel before resuming a move higher, assuming macro tailwinds don’t intensify GBP selling.
🎯 TRADE PLAN:
🔵 Buy Setup (Reversal from Demand Zone):
Entry: 1.3450 – 1.3460
SL: 1.3390
TP: 1.3570 → 1.3680 → 1.3760
Bias: Counter-trend rebound from golden pocket & ascending trendline
🔴 Sell Setup (Short-term pullback):
Entry: 1.3680 – 1.3700
SL: 1.3765
TP: 1.3570 → 1.3450
Bias: Fade weak bullish momentum near prior high resistance
📌 Risk Context:
Today’s US NFP report is high-impact – expect volatility spikes and spread widening. UK political headlines could cause gaps or sharp reversals. Traders are advised to reduce size or wait for clear rejection/confirmation candles before entry.
GBPUSD 1.3600 support retestThe GBPUSD currency pair continues to exhibit a bullish price action bias, supported by a sustained rising trend. Recent intraday movement reflects a sideways consolidation breakout, suggesting potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Level: 1.3600
This level marks the prior consolidation range and now acts as pivotal support. A corrective pullback toward 1.3600 followed by a bullish rejection would reinforce the bullish trend, targeting the next resistance levels at:
1.3825 – Near-term resistance
1.3865 – Minor swing high
1.3900 – Longer-term bullish objective
On the other hand, a decisive daily close below 1.3600 would invalidate the bullish setup, shifting the outlook to bearish in the short term. This could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
1.3550 – Initial support
1.3500 – Key downside target
Conclusion:
As long as 1.3600 holds as support, the technical outlook remains bullish, favoring long positions on dips. A confirmed break below this level would signal a shift in sentiment and open the door to a corrective pullback phase.
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GBP/USD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/USD pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is obviously rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 1.333 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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GBP/USD Slides with Fiscal WorriesGBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3625 in Asian trading, pressured by a sharp selloff in UK government bonds and growing fiscal concerns.
Gilts suffered their biggest drop since October 2022 after the government’s decision to cut welfare benefits and mounting doubts over the Chancellor’s political future.
Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC, noted: “The drop isn’t limited to the British Pound, UK gilts are also under heavy selling. It seems to be a broader crisis of confidence in the Labour government.”
Resistance is at 1.3675, while support holds at 1.3570.
DeGRAM | GBPUSD preparing for a correction📊 Technical Analysis
● Cable is pressing the rising-channel ceiling together with the March swing-high supply at 1.378-1.380; successive long-upper-wicks plus fading 4 h RSI signal bull exhaustion at this dual resistance.
● A tiny evening-star has formed inside the pink resistance band and price is slipping back under the broken inner trend-line; first objective is the former breakout shelf / median line near 1.360, with the lower rail and April pivot at 1.343 next in view.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● UK election blackout, soft retail-sales surprise and firmer month-end USD funding bids narrow the short-rate gap again, sapping fresh sterling demand.
✨ Summary
Short 1.374-1.380; sustain below 1.360 opens 1.343. Bear view void on a 4 h close above 1.380.
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Jobs vs politics: GBPUSD caught in crossfire Two major stories are developing on either side of the Atlantic.
ADP reported a 33 k fall in June private payrolls (consensus +95 k). It is the third straight miss and sets the tone for Thursday’s early Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, brought forward because of the 4 July holiday.
In the UK, speculation is growing around the position of Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in Parliament. Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to confirm whether she would remain in the role, sparking questions over the government’s fiscal direction.
The political uncertainty helped accelerate the sell-off in GBPUSD, which has fallen sharply from recent highs near 1.38. The latest candles show a long lower wick around 1.3600, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend the area. If this support fails to hold, the next downside target lies near 1.3485–1.3500, which acted as a base for the late-June rally.
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3681
1st Support: 1.3595
1st Resistance: 1.3746
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bouce off major support?GBP/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Pivot: 1.3609
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3534
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3750
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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GBP/USD Made A Double Top Pattern , Short After Breakout ? Here is my opinion on GBP/USD 4H Chart , we have a reversal pattern ( Double Top ) but until now we have not a closure below neckline ,so i`m waiting for 4H Closure below it to confirm the pattern and hen we can sell it , if we have not a closure below then this idea will not be valid .
GBPUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.370.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.378 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 2, 2025 GBPUSDOn Wednesday, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair is trading unchanged at around 1.37450. However, dovish statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and growing concerns about the budget may put pressure on the dollar in the near term. Investors are awaiting the ADP report on US employment for June, which will be released later on Wednesday, in the hope of new momentum.
Powell said on Tuesday that the US central bank would be patient about further interest rate cuts, but did not rule out a rate cut at its July meeting, although the decision would depend on incoming data. According to the CME FedWatch tool, short-term interest rate futures now price in the probability of a rate cut in July at almost 1 in 4, up from less than 1 in 5 previously.
Investors are concerned about US President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending bill, which could increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion. The bill will return to the House of Representatives for final approval. Fiscal concerns could dampen optimism and contribute to a decline in the US dollar.
As for the pound sterling, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that there are currently signs of a weakening UK labor market and stressed that interest rates are likely to continue to fall. The UK central bank is expected to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, bringing them to 3.5% to combat sluggish economic growth and a weakening labor market. Rate cuts are expected in August, September, and November 2025, with possible quarterly reductions.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.37450, SL 1.37900, TP 1.36750
Bearish drop?The Cable (GBP/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3749
1st Support: 1.3684
1st Resistance: 1.3788
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPUSD's strong uptrend continuesGBPUSD is in a strong uptrend, Price has just broken the resistance zone of 1.37500.
All the bullish momentum is heading towards the resistance zone of 1.388.
If there is a close of the h4 candle below the resistance zone of 1.375, there will likely be a Pullback to 1.363 to find more buying momentum towards the target at the resistance zone of 1.388
📈 Key Levels
Support: 1.375-1.363
Resistance: 1.388
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY GBPUSD 1.375-1.373 Stoploss 1.37000
BUY GBPUSD 1.363-1.361 Stoploss 1.35800
SELL GBPUSD 1.388-1.390 Stoploss 1.39300