Gold (XAUUSD) – July 4: Structure Shift & Short BiasYesterday’s price action (July 3) delivered a crucial structure break that changes our short-term trading outlook.
We were expecting a bullish continuation with a clean break above the 3365 M15 swing high .
Price reached as high as 3364, but failed to break the high — showing early signs of exhaustion.
Then came the PMI news release, triggering a sharp drop that broke the M15 Higher Low and shifted structure.
🔻 Structure Has Shifted
As of today, July 4, the intraday market structure has flipped from bullish to bearish.
✅ M15 trend: Now in a confirmed downtrend
✅ H4 trend: Entering a pullback phase
❌ Previous bullish continuation setup is invalidated
We now adjust our approach to align with the new structure — not the old expectation.
📉 Updated Bias: Short
With M15 and H4 now aligned in pullback, our active bias is bearish.
This means:
• We are not planning any long trades until structure shifts back
• Focus shifts to short setups only, executed with discipline
🔍 Intraday Short Setup Plan – July 4
We are watching for price to retrace into valid M15 POI zones before resuming the downtrend.
🔸 First zone to watch:
• 3348–3352 → M15 POI with strong probability for rejection
🔹 Execution Rule:
→ If price enters this zone
→ And we see M1 confirmation (ChoCh + micro BoS)
→ We will plan a short entry, with structure-based SL and minimum 1:3 RR
🎯 Downside Levels Ahead:
If bearish momentum continues, the next potential reversal/support zone is:
📍 3280–3285
→ This will be a key area to observe for signs of exhaustion or base formation
→ Until then, trend remains valid to the downside
🧭 Final Thoughts:
This shift from bullish to bearish bias is a textbook example of why we follow structure — not predictions .
The market gave a clean BoS at 3358, but failed to follow through.
Instead of forcing the long, we’ve now flipped bias in line with the chart’s reflection.
📖 Let the chart guide your thinking.
Structure reveals the direction.
Confirmation controls the execution.
The chart is the mirror.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Author of The Chart Is the Mirror: Mastering Gold with Structure, Stillness, and Price Action
