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Lumber and 30 year MortgageLumber and 30 year Mortgage – weekly scale: FRED 30 year rates lag most mortgage rates already above 5%. It has been since 2018 since rates were above 5% and lumber was sub 300.00. High priced lumber (any high priced commodity) will eventually correct itself. High prices cure high prices. Now the pinch is on and rates are reacting. Cost of money is no longer viewed as cheap. This could/should accelerate the cause and effect of high prices cure high prices. Support for lumber is the 800-820 area. Below look for the trend to remain down with continued support at 600 and the 460 area. Risk is 360-380
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by mtb1980
OECD Leading Indicator vs. Market Cycles - Updated 122022 Today's post is inspired by the work of @CMT_Association here on @TradingView, and is designed to give some insight into financial market vs. business cycle timing: We will be comparing various assets to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for the 🇺🇸. Keep in mind that readings above 100 (green dotted line) suggest economic expansion to come while readings below 100 suggests broader economic weakness, and likely economic recession based on history. Given the the index is currently trading below 100 , and possibly continuing to fall — what does this mean for the economic outlook going forward, specifically as it compares to S&P 500 (SPY ES1! SPX), DXY (U.S. Dollar), Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS), 2/10 Yield Curve Inversion (US02Y US10Y), U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY), U.S. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Crude Oil (CL1! USOIL), Lumber Futures (LBS1!), Gold (GOLD), Silver (SILVER), U.S. Mortgage Rates (USALOLITONOSTSAM), and possible timing of the financial market(s) recovery? Let's have a look at some of the charts as they highlight that real economic weakness is likely into H1/23', paired with the potential beginning of a financial asset recovery as the business cycle works through its bottoming process. Chart Key for Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): 📊🗝 Green Dotted Line (Horizontal): >100 = Economic Expansion Orange Dotted Line (Horizontal): Current Reading Red Dotted Line (Horizontal): Historic Danger Zone Black Dashed Lines (Vertical): Pre-Recession OECD Leading Indicator Peak If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 tradingview.sweetlogin.com S&P 500 SPX 1991-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2006-2017 (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): S&P 500 SPX 2016-Present (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Dollar DXY (Black Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y Treasury (Black Link) vs. Federal Reserve Fed Funds Rate FEDFUNDS (Blue Line) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): US02Y/US10Y Yield Curve Inversion (Baseline >0%, <0% Curve Inverted = Trouble in Markets) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Inflation Rate YoY (USIRYY) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Crude Oil USOIL CL1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Lumber LBS1! (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): GOLD (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): SILVER (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): U.S. Mortgage Rates (Black Link) vs. OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Here is the updated release schedule for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) for 2023: 🗓 data.oecd.org Learn more about the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (USALOLITONOSTSAM) using the link below: 💡 data.oecd.org What is your takeaway(s) from these charts? 👇🏼
TVC:US10Y
by kylemusserco
LBS1!10. 19. 22 As you know, I spend a lot of time looking add more than one time frame, but you have to do more than just look. While there would have been a profitable trade for me, and it would have a good reward for the risk, sometimes you have to step back a little bit because there are times when you should probably stay longer because of the profit potential, even though you could end up being stopped out of the market. If you Had two contracts, you might have made 10 to $14,000 on each contract, and you might close out of one and hold the other contract and let it run for a while. It can be a struggle doing this, but this is 10, 20 or more baggers which can be immensely profitable. There is nothing better been getting into a trade, it goes significantly in your Direction.... and then keeps on going. BUT You might have to keep the stop near your entry price. You certainly do not always have to do this, but sure are some trades like this that can give you a phenomenal reward.... and have dramatically more probability of happening then playing a lotto. If you enter this market and each contract went up $14,000 Tom and you scale out of one of the contracts, and you let you're stopped when the remaining contract A break even stop... this is the kind of marketing could give you a Six-figure return without too much trouble... with a break even stop. The one thing I like about this market is that its support line is still holding up. If this market starts moving higher, there may be a lot of sellers still hanging on who will have their stops trigger, and will be buyers to close their shorts.... driving the market higher. There are never guarantees. However, if you only want open dollar draw downs and then you're out.... this isn't going to work. These kinds of trades need to have room, not clothes trailing stops.
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by ScottBogatin
The Fed Conundrum and the Housing Market CollapseThe Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem. Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop. After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell. Post-pandemic (COVID), the CPI is 97% correlated to the Fed balance sheet. Looking historically, in 1980's, the Fed Rate was ~19% (real rate was 8%). Compared to today, the Fed Rate is under 3% and Real Fed Rate is at -6%. Folks already crying about a 3% Fed Rate. A colossal policy error in the making, or is everything going "according to plan"?
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by shri30389
4
LBS1! and Lumber4.10.22 PA1! and Lumber : I was really surprised when my students sent me an email showing a huge margin requirement for Palladium. I was a little embarrassed to not realize how high the margin requirements were, so I made some excuses for something I missed, and I gave my perspective on how I would look at this and what it means from a practical point of view. There is a difference between high margin requirements versus realistic risk in your trading account. Personally, I will trade palladium when everything set up and ready to go. If you can't afford palladium because you don't meet the margin requirements, this is no big deal because there are other commodity accounts that require much less margin, and can make you very nice returns with appropriate risk. However this market in palladium is so important because of its clarity in terms of market dynamics, pattern behaviors, and its intrinsic volatility, you still want to follow this because you may very well find yourself trading markets like this when you are more consistently profitable in your trading and have accumulated more capital.
NYMEX:PA1!
by ScottBogatin
LBS1!4.6.22 LBS1!: This video was a little shorter than normal, and I spent my whole time looking to be a buyer in a market that still might be a little too bearish for me to find a signal. However, what I neglected to say is that if the market does find a buy signal, whether or not I decide to take a long trade, if the market does start going higher today and doesn't close today's gap,AND it starts moving lower, I would be concerned that that failure to close the gap in addition to a price far this moving lower might indicate that the market will make new lows today.
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by ScottBogatin
LBS1!3.21.22 Lumber : learning something about this market with a lower timeframe. This is a market that will appeal to some traders, will not appeal to others, and probably is not a good Buy-and-hold market for others...but you can make a lot of money with this market. It moves fast, it gaps and reveres ...you have to think fast and be alert...and work for you money...but you probably won't have to wait long. Might be a good market to paper trade to practice your stop and revers skills with fast markets. You don't have to take every trade...but track it and track if this kind of market works well for you.
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by ScottBogatin
1
OIL LBS1!11.20.21 OIL LUMBER : This is about market dynamics and looking at more subtle behavior when it is likely to favor both buyers AND sellers in a fairly narrow range...but can managed if we take the time and effort to do the analysis. A clarification is need on Lumber: It is going to trade to the 382 most likely, BUT the market has been gapping higher this week ( bullish ) but it can correct lower because there is not a lot of supporting structure...so if you are not in the market...you may find an opportunity at a lower price. Bobby's Homework Assignment.
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by ScottBogatin