LUNAUSD is at its very best now and targeting $130.00 mid-termTerra is having a very impressive 1 week bullish streak, rising more than +80% since February 20. The price action since December 2021 is very similar with that of March - July 2021. This time it is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting, while in March - July it was the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). Even the RSI on the two was a Falling Wedge pattern.
In August 19 2021, LUNAUSD reached the 1.236 Fibonacci extension initially before in a time-span of 3 months it slowly hit the 1.382 and the 1.5 Fib extensions successively. Currently the 1.236 Fib ext is exactly at $130.00 and that stands out as a realistic medium-term target for buyers.
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Lunasignals
LUNA Bullish formations emerging. 2022 outlook.I have posted a LUNAUSD analysis earlier this month (Dec 02) but due to the latest market volatility, it is a good time to update it:
As you see that pattern above played out almost exactly as planned as the price initially broke out then pulled-back to the 1.0 Fib and rallied strongly above $100.00 up until the last few days. The obvious dominant pattern is the (green) Channel Up, which currently uses the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA100 (green trend-line) zone as its Support. However I see the potential for a diverging Channel Up (black lines) if LUNA finds support around the current levels today or tomorrow. The main reason for this emergence is the 1D CCI indicator which being on a Double Top (red arrows) while supported on Higher Lows, resembles the diverging Channels of June - July 2021 and November - December 2020, both of which initiated strong rallies once the broke upwards.
As shown on the chart, Terra targets the +0.5 Fibonacci intervals and when it breaks them, it later tests them as Supports. The 1.5 Fib extension has already been tested as Support so the next target is technically the 2.0 Fib ext (roughly $148.00) followed by the 2.5 (roughly $373.00). My thesis is that it is not late to invest in LUNA.
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LUNAUSD Worst case scenario = $130LUNA is having a strong rebound in the past week or so but based on this long-term pattern, not as strong as the one that is about to come.
According to this, the worst case scenario for LUNAUSD is to be trading within a (green) Channel Up, which on its more modest outcome in August 2020, it made a rally and peaked just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. That means a price target of at least $130 on the short-term. If on the other hand it follows the more optimistic scenario of January 2021, then the rally that is about to start may take a huge parabolic turn but of course that would suggest a market cap for LUNA that many in the market would deem unrealistic at this stage. In either case, our exit signal should be when we see the 1D RSI forming a Lower Highs bearish divergence similar to July - August 2020 and February - March 2021.
Which of the two paths do you think it will follow?
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