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BTC analysis, supports 116k, targets 122k, caution below 115.9k__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes (1D to 1H). Key supports: 115,960 / 117,423 / 117,700. Main resistances: 119,573–119,800–122,318. Volumes overall normal to moderately high, no climax. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy signal for all higher TFs, neutral on 30m/15m (momentary exhaustion). ISPD DIV neutral across all frames, no extreme or behavioral signals. MTFTI trend: up / strong up across the board. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish, high-range maintained between 116k–122k. Opportunities: buy on validated pullbacks between 116k–117.7k, take partial profits under 119.5k–122k. Risk areas: sharp downside below 115,960 with potential extension to 112k/110k. Macro catalysts: PCE (slightly above consensus), Fed on hold, moderate volatility. No negative crypto catalyst in sight. Action plan: Tactical stop-loss below 115,960, defensive management within range. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D – Support: 115,960 (Pivot Low), Resistance: 119,573–122,318. Strong momentum, resistance clusters. 12H/6H/4H – Bullish structure, moderate volume participation, consolidation under major resistance, pullbacks defended. 2H/1H – Compression between pivots, patience before breakout or support retest. 30m/15m – Tight consolidation, Up momentum but neutral behavioral signals, compression pre-move. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong buy on all TFs except intraday, neutrality on 30m/15m (temporary stall). ISPD DIV : No euphoria/fear, median persistent zone. Volumes slightly above average, healthy structure. Summary: Technical and fundamental confluence, upper range maintained, no reversal signals present. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary and Strategic Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: confirmed bullish on all frames, but increased caution above 122k. Plan: tactical buy only on validated pullback/price action, defensive profit-taking near resistance. Stop-loss below 115,960. Major invalidation under this threshold (low liquidity area). Monitor reactions to upcoming macro events (PCE/Fed) and any escalation in geopolitics. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro/Fundamentals & On-chain __________________________________________________________________________________ US Macro: PCE YoY above forecast (2.6% vs 2.5%), Fed on hold, USD under pressure. No systemic negative crypto alerts. IMF to classify BTC as “national wealth” from 2026. On-chain: Large liquidity test absorbed, 97% of BTC supply in profit, network consolidation in 117k–122k. Specific risk on break <115k: potential acceleration towards 110k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary: BTC/USDT is in a structural range 116k–122k with a dominant bullish bias, supported by technicals, strong macro and on-chain content. Accumulating at supports and defensive sells near resistance remain optimal until confirmation of a directional breakout. Suggested stop-loss: <115,960. Moderate risk until the next major macro/event catalysts. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Facing Macro Volatility: Key Supports Hold Firm__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Dominant bullish bias on higher timeframes (1D to 2H). Key Supports/Resistances: Key pivot zone at 114.7K–115.8K defended across all timeframes; major resistances at 119.7K, upside extension to 122.3K. Volume: Peaks on breakout, normal to high volumes depending on TF, no signs of seller capitulation. Behavioral Indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains strong on all strategic TFs; ISPD DIV neutral except for a defensive buy signal on 1H. Multi-timeframe summary: Broad horizontal consolidation, no panic or euphoria detected. Major supports overlap, confirming structural strength amid macro volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish above 114.7K; neutral/slightly bearish below this key level. Opportunities: Longs via scalping/range trading on reactions at 114.7–115.8K; swing accumulation on daily/4H stabilization above 115K. Risk: Break below <114.7K, macro volatility around NFP/PMI, false breakouts. Macro catalysts: Expanded US tariffs (Trump), NFP, PMI, Fed status. Action plan: Reactivity on pivots, reduce exposure during macro events, hard stops <114.5K H4. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Working the 114723 pivot support. Bullish momentum, no excessive selling, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “STRONG BUY”. 12H-6H: Building a bottom on the daily base; sustained volumes during sell-off, no panic, technical buy signals emerging. 4H-1H: Vigorous support defense, 1H ISPD DIV “buy” signal. Healthy range pattern; volumes up during rebound attempts. 30min-15min: Slow recovery after high-volume drop, no euphoria or capitulation. No “trap” or imminent squeeze, favorable for tactical trades. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Higher TFs (1W/1D/12H/4H) show strong bullish signals, boosting risk confidence. Decorrelation with lower TFs allows flexible management, controlled accumulation, tight stops at 114.7K. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & BTC Context Summary (Twitter) __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: US tariff shock, max volatility likely, amplified moves in equities and crypto. Bitcoin: Sharp correction post-record close, but solid supports remain, no sign of trend end. Integration: Technical status quo; favor defensive accumulation, caution on NFP/PMI. __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis: Plan & Risk Management __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategies: Longs/scalp >114.7K; swing/accumulate post daily/4H confirmation; partial TPs near 119.7K/122.3K. Risk Zones: Hard stop <114.5K. Tight monitoring around NFP for volatility spikes. Reward: Risk-to-reward >2 if buying lower range with strict stops. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Macro Events to Watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-08-01: US NFP, unemployment, hourly wages – High volatility expected, possible swings 2025-08-01: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Short-term trend confirmation or invalidation 2025-07-30: FED conference – Range-bound / Moderate volatility US Tariffs (Trump) – Global risk-off, caution BTC & tech __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC consolidates steadily between 114.7K–122.3K despite macro shocks Daily/H4 supports robust, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strong on higher TFs Accumulation/scalping favored as long as supports defended Main risk = break of 114.7K, imminent macro volatility
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
BTC – Pre-FOMC consolidation, bullish momentum, key zones__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Primary uptrend confirmed on all swing timeframes (daily to 1H). Active consolidation below major resistance (119650–120247), no capitulation or massive selling signals at this stage. Major Supports / Resistances : Main Supports: 116950, then 114732. Structural invalidation if daily close below 114K or low <110K. Key Resistances: 119650–120247 (recent block), then 123218. Clean breakout >125K targets next stat zone at 141K. Volumes : Transactional flows remain healthy, no anomalies or distribution events; normal volumes with a few impulsive bursts. No panic or selling climax detected. Multi-timeframe behavior : Uptrend alignment from 1D to 2H; short-term divergence (MTFTI “Down” on 30m/15m/5m) indicates only breath/consolidation pre-macro event (FOMC). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Medium/long-term bullish bias, confirmed, with no behavioral excess or visible structural weakness. Opportunities : Pullbacks to major supports (116950–114732) offer strategic accumulation. Potential for adding exposure on clear breakout above 125K with volume confirmation. Risk Areas : Post-FOMC flushes, anticipated high volatility until Thursday morning, $115–123K range still active. Tactical stop loss below 114.5K, structural recalibration <110K. Macro Catalysts : FOMC tonight (20:00 Paris): status quo expected, but markets highly sensitive to Powell’s statement. Widened spreads, max volatility expected within the following 2 hours. Action Plan : Favor patience on breakout, accumulate on retracement, keep stops disciplined. Avoid aggressive scalping until post-FOMC volatility peak fades. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily): Uptrend confirmed up to dense resistance zone 119800–123200. Solid momentum, no excess on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator or volume. Key Supports: 116950, 114732. 12H/6H/4H: Structured consolidation below 120247–119650. No behavioral warnings; markets strong, healthy liquidity. Accumulation-distribution rhythm without extremes. 2H/1H: Sideways, no sell-off or euphoria; potential consolidation before breakout. Major supports unchanged. 30min/15min: Noticeable short-term divergence (“Down”). Micro bearish setup, possible loss of short-term momentum before FOMC. Summary: Broadly bullish swing trend with consolidation below resistance, reinforcement possible on breakout; short term fragile until macro moves (Fed) are digested. Patience is key ahead of FOMC: prioritize accumulation on major pullback, keep stops disciplined, and avoid intraday over-trading unless clear exhaustion signals emerge. __________________________________________________________________________________ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy from 1D to 1H, intact sector support, positive structural bias. ISPD DIV: Neutral across all timeframes: no excess, no behavioral climax. On-chain/macro: 97% of holders still in profit; market absorbed stress test ($9B sell-off); only moderate euphoria, consistent with late bull phase but not exhausted. Swing validation if >125K. Tactical stop <114.5K; full capitulation <110K. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Multi-timeframe analysis, strong momentum, FOMC risk/reward plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong momentum and bullish consensus confirmed across all timeframes. Key support/resistance : 114k–116k (critical support), 123k (major pivot). Healthy organic volume , no extreme peaks except isolated moments (30min/15min). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Dominant bullish signal, neutral only on 15min. Multi-timeframe structure : Perfect alignment daily/4H/2H/1H, caution on 15/30min (slight inflection but no abnormal divergence). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias : Structural bull market, intact dynamic. Opportunities : Tactical buys on pullbacks (114–116k), swing on breakout 123k. Risk areas : Below 114k = risk of invalidation, targets 111k–105k. Macro catalysts : FOMC imminent (high volatility expected), watch geopolitical tensions. Action plan : Favor swing/cautious trading ahead of FOMC, dynamic stops, act on first post-Powell trigger. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Active range 114k–123k; strong supports, momentum maintained; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strongly bullish. 12H/6H/4H : Clean bullish structure, no excesses or divergence; price sits within major horizontal clusters. 2H/1H : Healthy impulse/correction phases; key intermediate supports 114.6k, 117.5k to watch. 30min/15min : Slightly weaker momentum but constructive microstructure, no immediate sell threat; localized volume spikes on support reactions. ISPD DIV : No behavioral stress observed throughout. Cross-timeframe summary : Bullish confluence dominant; caution on short-term reversals tied to FOMC and on-chain volatility spikes. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-timeframe Cross Analysis & Decisional Rationale __________________________________________________________________________________ As long as BTC > 114k = bullish bias, buying pullbacks, swing target 123k. Active management post-FOMC strongly advised (enter/reduce after first H4 close). Increased volatility risk in case of Fed/geopolitical shock; mandatory stops. Sector momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) and volume underpin the bullish case unless exogenous alert. Invalidation below 114k = prudent, neutral, or tactical shorts towards 111k–105k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro, On-chain & Economic Calendar __________________________________________________________________________________ FOMC July 29th : pivotal event, any surprise = strong intraday move (BTC sensitive to Powell speech). US Macro: strong fundamentals but caution on trade war, inflation "contained." On-chain : realized cap BTC >$1T, high open interest in derivatives = leveraged risk, beware speculative altcoin excess. Global risk : market remains buyer until bearish Fed/geopolitical shock; swing trading favored, tight stops recommended. __________________________________________________________________________________ Action plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Favor buying/reloading on pullbacks to 114.6k–116k (stop <114k). Break above 123k = bull confirmation, further extension likely to 126–128k depending on FOMC outcome. Prioritize strict risk management; monitor liquidity/supports on macro/on-chain volatility peaks. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Strategic Multi-Swing Analysis – Pivots and Post-FOMC Outlook__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Sustained bullish momentum on BTCUSDT across all swing timeframes. ➤ Key supports: 116400–117400 (likely rebound), major supports: 105047–114674. ➤ Main resistances: 119000–120000 (short term), major ceiling at 123240 (1D/12H). ➤ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: "Strong Buy" signal – tech sector leadership confirmed. ➤ Volumes normal to moderately elevated, no excess or behavioral anomaly (ISPD "Neutral"). ➤ No euphoria or capitulation flags; general wait-and-see attitude, FOMC event ahead. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Strategic bullish bias remains as long as 116400/117400 supports hold. ➤ Opportunity window: buy pullbacks towards 117400–116400 with tight stops; clear invalidation below 115900. ➤ Risks: FOMC-induced volatility, increased leverage on alts, potential capitulation if key support breaks. ➤ Catalysts: FOMC communication, geopolitical context (no immediate threat), background risk-off climate not yet triggered. ➤ Action plan: Prioritize post-event reaction over anticipation; maintain strict technical protection. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D: Uptrend confirmed. Price above all major supports. Strong resistance at 123240, key support at 105047, normal volumes, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator "Strong Buy", ISPD "Neutral". 12H: Bullish bias. Resistance cluster 120002–123240. Intermediate supports 114674/111949. Momentum/volume supported, no excesses. 6H: Bullish near range top, supports at 114674/111949, ceiling at 120002–123240. Solid Risk On / Risk Off Indicator. 4H–2H: Up momentum, resistance 119003–120002–123240, supports 116474/117800. Moderate/normal volumes. 1H: Strong uptrend, thick resistance at 119000–120000, immediate supports 117800/116474. Slight volume uptick ahead of FOMC. 30min–15min: Resistance 119003–120000 (~H4 pivot). Intraday support 117400–117800/118200. Both Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and ISPD neutral, normal volumes, bullish as long as 116474 holds. SYNTHESIS: Broad bullish confluence on MTFTI from 1H to 1D/W. Supports at 116474/117400 are key pivots for maintaining bullish swing view. No behavioral alerts or extreme volumes. Consolidation/waiting likely before FOMC release – monitor reactions at pivot zones. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & macro Opportunities: Swing bullish scenario favored as long as key supports hold, buy strategic pullbacks, reverse on clear break. Main risk: FOMC volatility, altcoin excesses, possible post-announcement fake moves. Active monitoring essential. Macro/on-chain: No excess, BTC realized cap > $1T; aggressive rotation into alts, high open interest. No capitulation. Major on-chain & technical support aligned at 114500–118000. Action plan: Favor reactivity (post-FOMC), tight stops, progressive take profits at 119500–123240 resistance. No aggressive pre-positioning. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro catalysts overview FOMC expected: status quo, market sensitive to any Powell tone shift. Global macro: latent risk-off, geopolitical drivers closely watched. BTC stable, no technical disruptor in the immediate term. __________________________________________________________________________________ Final Decision Summary Robust technical setup with a clear bullish bias. Optimal entries on 117400-116400 pullbacks, stops below support, active management needed during FOMC. No on-chain excess; constructive background unless exogenous shock or resistance failure (119000–123240). Stay alert for breakout/reject pivot. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin vs Global M2: Can Liquidity Predict the future?This chart compares Bitcoin’s price (daily) with a Global M2 indicator that includes the monetary supply of major economies like the U.S., Eurozone, China, and Japan. It’s not a perfect global measure — but it gives us a reliable macro signal of what global liquidity is doing. And when it comes to Bitcoin, liquidity is everything. Why this matters: Bitcoin is often seen as volatile or unpredictable. But when we zoom out and overlay it with liquidity flows (like M2), a powerful pattern emerges: Bitcoin tends to follow global M2 with a ~10-week lag. When M2 rises, Bitcoin often rallies weeks later. When M2 contracts, Bitcoin loses momentum. This makes M2 a powerful leading indicator — not for predicting exact price levels, but for catching the direction of trend and regime shifts. What this chart tells us: M2 leads, Bitcoin follows. The curves won’t align perfectly — but the macro structure is there. Big expansions in M2 create a friendlier environment for risk assets like BTC. This is the same logic used by macro strategists like Raoul Pal: liquidity drives everything. Important disclaimer: This doesn’t mean M2 tells you where price will be on a specific date. But it can help identify turning points — and confirm whether we’re in a reflationary vs contractionary environment. Think of it as a weather forecast, not a GPS pin. In other words: This chart doesn't show the price. It shows the future.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by JoseCeppi
3
Bitcoin Bullish Structure Holds: Focus on Support Entries & Brea__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Uptrend synchronization on all timeframes (MTFTI Strong Up). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy on larger TF, neutral intraday. Supports/resistances: Main HTF supports well below current price (115,736–117,000, 111,980). Key resistances to break: 120,998.7 and 122,318. Volumes: Normal to moderate, no climax, no distribution detected. Multi-TF behaviour: No behavioural excess, no sell signal, intraday phases are consolidative just below resistance, which is normal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Strong bullish, no end-of-trend alert. Buying retracement towards the Pivot Lows is preferred. Opportunities: Entries on dips to 115,700–117,000 (2H/4H); breakout above 120,250/122,300. Risk zones: Return below 115,700 or 111,980 = structural alert. Increased vigilance for macro releases (ECB/PMI/Jobless Claims). Macro drivers: Fed in focus (no move expected), volatility risk around July 29–30 (FOMC). Action plan: Entry on retracement, dynamic management. Stop-loss under 115,736 then 111,980. Partial exits on excess or confirmed breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Resistances 122,318, 120,998.7; supports 115,736.9, 105,100.2. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy, all synchronized bullish, no exhaustion. Daily bias: robust uptrend. 12H/6H/4H: Bullish confluence. Strong momentum, stable volume, validated supports. No ISPD excess, sectoral strength intact. 2H/1H: Consolidation below resistance; healthy structure. Supports to be favored for swing/intraday positioning. Minor intraday hesitation, no reversal. 30min/15min: Behavioural neutrality, lateral movement. Volume normal to mildly elevated, no overheating. Structural risk absent. Additional indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy up to 2H; neutral on short TF. ISPD DIV: Neutral, healthy market, no excess detected. Volume: No climax or distribution, multi-TF structural support. Cross-timeframe synthesis: Multi-timeframe bullish alignment, no structural weakness. Opportunities on retracement, breakout plays above all-time highs. __________________________________________________________________________________ Synthesis & Strategic Bias __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC trend and momentum remain aligned, sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) intact. Strong HTF support, major resistances must break for extension. External risk: macroeconomic catalysts (Fed, ECB, US PMI). Premium opportunities on dips to supports, dynamic management essential around macro events. Final bias: as long as supports and indicator alignment hold, bull run continues. Partial exit at resistance; stops below validated pivots.
Long
by Ox_kali
USD/JPY: A Bullish Thesis for Trend ContinuationThis analysis outlines a data-driven, bullish thesis for USD/JPY, identifying a strategic long entry within an established market trend. The setup is supported by a combination of fundamental catalysts and a clear technical structure. 📰 The Fundamental Picture The primary driver for this trade will be the high-impact US economic data scheduled for release. This release is expected to inject significant volatility into the market. Fundamentally, this trade is a play on the deep policy differences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the Fed's future steps are a topic of debate, the Bank of Japan's policy remains one of the most accommodative in the world, creating a long-term headwind for the Japanese Yen. This dynamic provides a strong fundamental basis for relative US Dollar strength against the Yen. 📊 The Technical Structure Chart analysis reveals that USD/JPY is in a confirmed and healthy uptrend. The current price action indicates a constructive pullback, presenting a strategic opportunity to join the dominant trend at a favorable price. The proposed entry point is positioned at a key technical level that offers a low-risk entry. Technical indicators support the continuation of the trend, suggesting that momentum remains with the bulls. ✅ The Trade Plan This trade is structured with a clear and favorable risk-to-reward profile, aiming to capitalize on the established trend. 👉 Entry: 146.343 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 145.233 🎯 Take Profit: 148.560 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
AUD/JPY: Capitalizing on the RBA-BoJ Monetary Policy GapThis analysis outlines a compelling short opportunity in AUD/JPY, driven by a powerful confluence of fundamental and technical factors. The trade is strategically positioned ahead of a key catalyst that could unlock significant downside potential. 1️⃣ The Core Thesis: A Clear Policy Divergence The primary driver behind this trade is the stark and widening gap in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The RBA is signaling a clear dovish pivot amid a weakening labor market, making an interest rate cut imminent. Conversely, the BoJ is in a tightening phase, creating a fundamental headwind for the AUD relative to the JPY. This divergence underpins the strategic bearish bias. 2️⃣ The Confirmation: Technical Alignment This fundamental view is supported by a clear technical picture. The pair is in a well-defined downtrend and is currently testing a critical support level. This alignment of fundamental and technical factors presents a clear short opportunity, with the entry positioned for a breakdown below this key juncture. 3️⃣ The Catalyst: The RBA Bulletin The immediate catalyst for this trade is the upcoming RBA Bulletin on July 24, 2025. Any dovish language from the RBA concerning Australia's economic outlook will likely reinforce expectations for a rate cut and accelerate the downward move in AUD/JPY. The Trade Setup ✅ Here is the recommended trade setup: 📉 Trade: SHORT AUD/JPY 👉 Entry: 96.56200 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 96.96386 🎯 Take Profit: 95.49900 🧠 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.65 This setup offers a compelling risk-reward profile, capitalizing on a clear and powerful macroeconomic theme. The trade is designed to perform should the expected catalyst confirm the underlying bearish fundamentals.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
Bitcoin Bullish Momentum, Swing Setups on Support Pre-ECB__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish momentum confirmed on all timeframes >1H; structure Up. Major supports: 105100, 111980, 115736; main resistance: 122318 (ATH). Volumes normal at all timeframes except 30min (very high at lows, institutional absorption). No behavioral anomaly signals (ISPD DIV neutral, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" everywhere except 15m/30m). Multi-timeframe alignment, only 15m/30m in minor divergence (Down, no structural impact). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish swing/mid-term bias confirmed: Optimal opportunities on pullbacks 117900–116467. Risk/stop zone: below 115736 USDT (key multi-frame pivot). Catalysts: ECB (24/07, volatility expected); strict monitoring post-announcement. Plan: swing entries on pullback, strict risk management, reduce exposure before macro events. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ Daily (1D) : Consolidation after ATH, strong supports (105100, 111980). Strong momentum, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at "STRONG BUY," ISPD neutral. Normal volumes. 12H/6H : Price oscillating near upper pivots (115736, 116467). Buyers in control. "STRONG BUY" generalized. 4H/2H : Range 116467–119676, Up momentum. Swing setups/favorable to buyers on weakness. 1H : Full confirmation of the bullish bias. 116.5–117K area = key support for scalp/swing. 30min/15min : Minor short-term bearish divergence, increasing volumes, no structural warning. Possible scalping on bullish reaction 117800–116467. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator = "STRONG BUY" on all timeframes (>1H). Only micro-risk: "Down" divergence on 15/30min, to be watched. Main risk: $130K area (Glassnode major statistical resistance), possible capitulation below 115736 (swing invalidation). Targets: 122–130k. Macro: Reduce exposure before 24/07 (ECB), adjust stops if extreme volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-Chain Summary (Glassnode, July 22, 2025) __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC in price discovery, all holder cohorts in profit (>95% STH). Profit-taking rising but no climax detected; market is "breathing". Major support: $110K; major resistance: $130K. Attractive risk/reward outside euphoria zones. Stop advised <115736. No immediate disruptive macro catalyst. Watch for volatility spikes at ECB decision (24/07). __________________________________________________________________________________ Actionable Synthesis & Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ "Swing long" favored on pullback 117900–116467 / stop below 115736. Scalping weaknesses 117800–116467 on bullish reaction, monitor post-ECB confirmation. Reduce leverage/exposure ahead of ECB. R/R ratio >2 on bullish swing scenario; strict stop-loss. Robust bullish context, valid technical structure. Active approach required short term: seize pullbacks, protect stops, adjust post macro-news.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Inflation vs. Growth : Is the Fed Behind or Ahead of the Curve?CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT:ZN1! Fed Policy recap: There is an interesting and unusual theme to keep an eye on this week. The Fed is in a ‘blackout period’ until the FOMC meeting- this is a customary quiet period ahead of an FOMC policy meeting. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to give a public talk on Tuesday. Although his address will be focused on the capital framework of the large banks, this appearance will be closely watched for any subtle signals on the FOMC policy stance. Especially given that last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller made a speech, “The Case for Cutting Now” with a purpose as he stated to explain why the FOMC should reduce rate by 25 bps at the July 30th, 2025 meeting. His stated reasons were: 1. Tariffs create one-off price level increases with transitory inflation effects, not sustained inflation momentum. 2. He argued that much of economic data points towards interest rates should be lowered to FOMC’s participants' median neutral rate, i.e, 3%. 3. His third stated reason notes that while the state of the labor market looks resilient on the surface, accounting for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth has peaked, with more data suggesting increased downside risks. His speech further explains: • Growth has decelerated sharply: Real GDP rose only ~1% annualized in 1H25, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in 2H24, and well below long-run potential. • Consumer spending is weakening, with real PCE growth falling to ~1%, and June retail sales showing soft underlying momentum. • Broader labor market indicators, including the Beige Book and JOLTS data, show declining labor demand and hiring caution, suggesting increasing downside risks to employment. • Inflation is slightly above target (PCE ~2.5%) but driven primarily by temporary, one-off tariff effects. Core inflation ex-tariffs is likely near 2%, and expectations remain anchored. • Current fed funds range (4.25%–4.50%) is well above neutral (3%), implying excessive restraint. • With inflation risks subdued and macro conditions deteriorating, a preemptive rate cut now provides optionality and avoids falling behind the curve if the slowdown deepens. Further cuts may be warranted if trends persist. • The tax bill contains pro-growth provisions, but its economic impact is expected to be minimal in 2025. Source: Federal Reserve Speech, The Case for Cutting Now Governor Waller Inflation Analysis: Let’s compare this with what we have previously mentioned regarding inflation. CPI index stood at 257.971 points in January 2020. Projecting this at a 2% Fed target, June 2025 inflation should be around 287.655 points. However, June 2025 inflation is currently at 322.56 index points, 12.2% higher above 2% the inflation trend. Effectively, this means annualized inflation since January 2020 is roughly 4.15%. The Fed is in a real dilemma whether cutting rates given the inflation trend in the last 5 years and risks to inflation outlook justify cutting rates. Key Questions to ask Markets are forward looking. Investors and participants want to know: • How will the rates impact the cost of debt service? Currently the third largest government expenditure, over $1.03 trillion. • Will the tariff rate offset the tax revenue losses by extending tax cuts? • Is the fiscal path sustainable? • What happens to the long end of the yield-curve? • Will the Fed monetize the debt issuance imbalance? • Is this simply Governor Waller positioning himself for the next appointment of Fed Chair when Fed Chair Powell’s term expires in May 2026? It seems there is a huge conflict between longer term implications vs quick short term fixes that align with US administration objectives. The Week ahead: It is a relatively light economic calendar in the US. Flash PMI readings and housing data on the docket. The primary focus as it has been for most weeks since President Trump took office, will be on the developments in trade policy and any further comments on Fed and Chair Powell. The threat of renewed tariffs starting August 1st, is also key to monitor and whether these protectionist measures will force US’s trading partners to make further concessions to negotiate trade deals. The earnings season is off to a good start with major US banks reporting higher EPS and revenue than expectations. This week investors will be looking at Q2 earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft from the Mag 7 and Tesla.
ECONOMICS:USCPI
by EdgeClear
Bullish Multi-Timeframe Alignment, Macro Risks & Key Levels__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strong bullish trend across all timeframes. Major Supports: 115796/117277 (720/240 Pivot Low). Key Resistances: 119000–123200 (240/D Pivot High), watch for potential extension or profit-taking. Volume: Healthy participation, no marked anomalies. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong sector momentum except 15min (neutral), risk appetite confirmed. Multi-TF Behavior Synthesis: No "behavioral sell" warning, ISPD DIV neutral, no climax. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias: Clearly bullish, all timeframes aligned, no notable technical divergences. Opportunities: Buy on pullback (HTF support) or on breakout/consolidation above 123200 with increasing bullish volume. Risk Zones: Drop below 115796 invalidates scenario; watch for “sell” behavioral signals (ISPD red/extreme volumes) or persistent sector divergence. Macro Catalysts: Next Fed meeting (July 21st), ongoing geopolitical tensions. Action Plan: Closely monitor supports/resistances, strict stops below 115796, dynamic adjustment to upcoming macro volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Bullish breakout, leading tech/growth sector, stable volume. 12H: Bullish signal, price held above all key HTF pivots. 6H: Consolidation below key resistance 123218, no distribution, strength intact. 4H: Sideways just below resistance, controlled pause, possible push upwards. 2H: Stalling under resistance yet bullish momentum still present. 1H: Supports defended, rising volume on rebounds, no excess. 30min: Intraday momentum positive; no signs of reversal, strong indicator consensus. 15min: Testing pivots, slight momentum decline, neutral on Risk On / Risk Off Indicator. __________________________________________________________________________________ Technical confluence: All timeframes aligned upward, strong sector momentum, controlled volumes, no behavioral excess. Watch for resolution near the 119000–123200 resistance zone (potential supply), and monitor for alert signals on behavioral/volume side. Macro: anticipate volatility around July 21 (Fed). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Decision Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ News / Macro: Upcoming Fed meeting = caution period, expected volatility spike. Geopolitics: Middle East/Europe tensions, no Asian shock. On-chain: BTC in price discovery, initial STH profit-taking, everyone in latent profit (interim top risk if overheated, reward up to $130k possible). Actionable checklist: Optimal entry: Pullback on 115796–117277 or strong breakout above 123200 with confirmed volume Stop-loss: Below 115796 (major pivot); intraday swings below 117277 Imperative risk management, avoid leveraged trades ahead of macro event __________________________________________________________________________________ Final Conclusion __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is structurally bullish, supported by perfect multi-timeframe alignment, strong sector leadership (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator), and positive on-chain signals. However, proximity to historical resistances and looming volatility call for strict, active risk management. Targets: $123k/$130k; stops below 115796.
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin at 120,000: Decisive Breakout or Renewed Consolidation?__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strongly bullish on H1 and above; healthy consolidation below ATH. Supports/Resistances: 120,000 USDT (pivot resistance), 116,400–117,000 (major support), 104,000–110,000 (long-term support). Volumes: Normal, no anomaly nor climax detected. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy signal on all timeframes except very short term. Sectoral health confirmed. Multi-timeframe: Short-term bearish divergence on 15/30min, but robust technical structure above H1-D1. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias: Confirmed bullish across all timeframes; no major break detected. Opportunities: Strategic buys between 116,400–117,000 (pullback); confirmed breakout above 120,000 (target 130,000). Risk zones: Below 116,000 (potential correction to 112,000–104,000), false breakout at the top. Macro catalysts: Monitor Fed (next FOMC July 29-30), volatility on risk assets, geopolitical tensions. Action plan: Prioritize stop management, stay reactive ahead of macro events. Main scenario: buy confirmed pullback or validated breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D / 12H: Bullish structure intact but facing historical resistance (120k), strong supports in place (104–107k). 6H / 4H / 2H: Consolidation below resistance, no signs of exhaustion, tactical supports at 116,000–117,000. 1H / 30min / 15min: Weakness on shorter timeframes (sellers at top), confirmation of range polarization. No emotional excesses (ISPD DIV neutral), standard volumes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong buy except for very short-term fatigue. Summary: Multi-horizon bullish bias, technical and sectoral confluence for upside extension if clear breakout >120,000. Key support to hold at 116,400–117,000. Buy dips, ride breakout up to 130,000. Focus on risk management, flexibility advised as macro (Fed) nears. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key macro events to watch __________________________________________________________________________________ 2025-07-18: Fed rate/volatility debate (Equity, Bonds, BTC). 2025-07-29: FOMC (potential pivot for risk assets). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic decision & final summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Main bias: Bullish, to be validated at key levels, favor buying dips/breakouts. Risk management: Stop below 116,000, scale out progressively after 125k, reinforced protection ahead of FOMC. Opportunities: Pullback 116,400–117,000 (RR >3); H4/D breakout >120,000 targeting 130,000 (RR >2). Monitoring: Macro (Fed, geopolitics), dynamic management according to market response to news. Conclusion: A validated move above 120,000 projects target to 130,000 (next statistical/on-chain extension). Deep dips can be bought above 104,000. Do not loosen risk management as Fed date approaches.
Long
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Swing Reinforcement, Strategic Stops Below 115k__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Strong bullish trend on all timeframes above 1h (MTFTI dark/gray, “Strong Up” confirmed). Supports/Resistances : Key supports: $104,000–$110,000 (HTF), $116,000–$118,000 (STF). Strategic resistances: $120,000–$122,000 (HTF), ATH $125,000. Volumes : No excess, healthy and regular flows. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong BUY across all higher timeframes, US tech sector momentum is bullish. ISPD DIV : Neutral across all TFs, no extreme behavioral signals. Multi-TF behavior : Bullish confirmation down to 1H; neutral/profit-taking mood on 15min–5min. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias : Strong bullish as long as the $116,000 zone holds. Opportunities : Swing entries on pullbacks $116,000–$118,000; first take-profits at $122,000–$125,000. Potential extension up to $130,000 if on-chain momentum persists. Risk zones : Below $115,000 = invalidation, structural downside risk (swing closure recommended). Macro catalysts : No imminent major macro event, structurally mild volatility. Geopolitical hand neutral for now. Risk management : Mandatory stop $114,800–$115,000, current risk/reward >2:1 on the bounce zone. Action plan : Buy on clean retracement above 116k–118k, actively track STH profit-taking, reactively adjust if major S/R clusters break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Supports 104k–110k, major resistance 120k–125k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator STRONG BUY. ISPD DIV neutral, volumes regular. MTFTI Strong Up. 12H : S/R 117.5k–119.3k, strong support 115k–116k. Risk-on sectorial momentum active. Volumes unaltered, confirmed uptrend. 6H : Resistance 119.3k, support 116k. Still strong buy, healthy flows, technical uptrend confirmed. Bounce ops 116k–117k. 4H : Support 117.5k–118.2k. Resistance 120k–121k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator only buy, general up. No abnormal volume. 2H : Support 118k/116k, resistance 120k. Sectorial momentum intact, uptrend solid, best scalping/retest at 118k. 1H : Support 118k, res. at 119.5k then 120k. Sectorial momentum strong, no volume/ISPD excess. 30min : Support 118k, resistance 119k/119.8k. Slight momentum drop, context healthy. Fast entries on rebounds. 15min : Support 118.2k, resistance 119.3k. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral. MTFTI micro-volatile. Volumes steady. __________________________________________________________________________________ Decision Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Confluences : Bullish alignment across HTFs, strong sector momentum, healthy volumes, no behavioral excess. Divergences : Slight short-term fading on lower TFs. Adjustment signal, not a trend reversal. On-chain : All holders in profit, early STH profit-taking but no structural top. Potential extension 122–130k$ before local exhaustion zone. Risks : Drop below 115k would invalidate the swing dynamic. Geopolitical stress to be monitored, but little short-term transmission. Strategy : Buyers to reinforce between 116k–118k, secure partials above 122k. Strict stop below 115k. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
$GTLB undervalued, Potential 2X, AI assisted coding tailwind- NASDAQ:GTLB is likely one of the play for Agentic AI. When other companies like Windsurf, Codium, Cursor are in a goldrush. NASDAQ:GTLB is selling shovels. - AI assisted coding is now a theme and is happening at a fast pace. I'm certain NASDAQ:GTLB will be a beneficiary of this trend. - NASDAQ:GTLB has launched various AI based features on its platform which will get adoption and it will be easier for the company to upsell these features. - P/S for NASDAQ:GTLB is depressed. If they even execute on their fiscal goals, re-rating should lift the stock up. - NASDAQ:GTLB should be a 2X in less than 3 years in my opinion given secular shift and macro as a tailwind. Fair value for NASDAQ:GTLB as of now is $68-72
NASDAQ:GTLBLong
by bigbull037
Bullish momentum holding, accumulation zones in focus__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Strong bullish momentum across all timeframes. ➤ Key supports: 104–110k$ and 110–115k$; pivot resistance: 124k$. ➤ Normal volumes, no panic or exhaustion phases detected. ➤ The Risk On / Risk Off Indicator consistently supports the bullish trend, with minor short-term slowing. ➤ No behavioral alerts (ISPD DIV), multi-timeframe structure fully aligned. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Structurally bullish bias as long as supports above 104–110k$ hold. ➤ Tactically seek long entries on retracements to 110–115k$ (preferred swing bias). ➤ Fast profit-taking zone above 124k$ or on loss of key support clusters. ➤ Macro environment neutral to slightly positive, no urgent negative catalysts. ➤ Action: prioritize long trades on pullback, strict stops below 104k$, reduce sizing before major news releases. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D: - Strong 124k$ resistance, major supports at 104.5k$ & 108–110k$ (technical and on-chain clusters). - Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: strong buy, balanced volumes. - Buy zone = pullback to 108–110k$; rapid profit-taking on break of 124k$ without macro confirmation. 12H: - Distribution below 124k$ resistance, optimal support at 110–115k$. - Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish, clear bullish confluence. - Wait for confirmed break to extend; buy dips. 6H / 4H: - Failed breakout at 124k$, solid supports at 110–115k$. - Momentum intact, stable volumes, healthy structure. - Dip accumulation recommended as long as supports hold. 2H / 1H: - Active defense of 110–115k$ support and pivots at 115–118k$. - Risk On / Risk Off Indicator very favorable (swing pullback entries). - Stable volumes, no exuberance. 30min / 15min: - Moderated momentum, micro-range below 120k$. - Treat every dip as an opportunity to join the main trend. Cross-summary: As long as >110k$ holds, each pullback is an accumulation opportunity. Only a persistent break below 104k$ invalidates the bias. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-chain Analysis Macro: US CPI above expectations, no Fed rate cut expected, neutral to risk-on environment. No immediate negative news, volatility under control. Calendar: increase caution before key macro releases, reduce swing exposure ahead of FOMC/high-vol days. On-chain: major accumulation supports 104–110k$; watch for loss of STH in profit momentum. Strong coherence between technical and on-chain clusters, but remain watchful for euphoric tops >124–130k$. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic conclusion and action plan Trend: Bullish unless crash below 104k$. Action: Prioritize buying pullbacks at 110–115k$, strict stops under key pivots. Swing window possible up to 130k$ if no on-chain/macro overheating. Increase prudence if break >124k$ occurs without macro/sector momentum. As long as the multi-timeframe structure holds and on-chain support clusters are respected, every pullback to 110–115k$ should be seen as a buy opportunity. Key watch: breakouts above 124k$ without macro confirmation and on-chain STH/profit stress signals. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Key 116800 Support Tested, US CPI as Decisive Catalyst__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points ➤ Bullish momentum maintained across all major timeframes (1D to 1H). Key supports held at 116800-117200. Very high volume on low timeframes, indicating distribution/recharging. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shows Buy across major TFs, micro-buy opportunity signaled on 15min. No extreme behavioral signals, except short-term positive micro-signal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary ➤ Cautious bullish swing bias as long as 116800-117200 holds. Monitor strong tech sector momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator). Heightened risk zone if support breaks (downward targets: 111000/110500/107200). Main catalyst: US CPI release—active trading management advised before/after. Tactical approach necessary: stop below 116200, TP 119000/120000. Closely watch low timeframe volumes and ISP signals. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis ➤ 1D: Bullish, multiple supports at 10510/107200/11050-11190, resistance at 123000/119000-120000. Strong Risk On / Risk Off Indicator acquisition, normal volumes, no behavioral overheating. 12H: Momentum intact, 116800-117200 key area. Volume normal, stable mature market, no emotional excess. 6H: Bullish retest validated on 116800, rising volume but no dramatic spikes, key moment for trend. 4H: Dynamic support at 116800, resistance 119000-120000. Uptrend, healthy as long as support holds. 2H: Very high volume amid consolidation/reloading, increased volatility around 116800. 1H: Still Up, but extreme volume, increased caution. Possible stop hunting. 30min: Slowdown, volume still very high, micro-correction or local exhaustion. 15min: Micro-correction but ISP buy triggered; potential short-term bounce. Key alignments: All TFs 1D–1H Up, supports held. 30min/15min correction on volume excess. Major confluence: 116800-117200 = absolute pivot: break = correction, bounce = further up. Divergences: Extreme volume not confirmed by ISP, except 15min. Technical zone of action: Bullish scenario confirmed if bounce on 116800; invalidation on breakdown. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & Fundamental Analysis ➤ No major macro event in the very near term ➤ Sole catalyst ahead: US CPI release, watch for possible whipsaws ➤ Institutional flows (ETF AUM record highs); on-chain stability, visible accumulation ➤ Volatility tightly compressed, coiling for next breakout on impulsive move ➤ Geopolitical noise present but limited direct impact in short term To watch: post-CPI reactions, low timeframe volumes, defense/break of 116800-117200 cluster, micro ISP 15min signal, volatility & ETF institutional flows. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary & Action Plan ➤ Preferred scenario: Cautious swing long if 116800-117200 support cluster holds, stop <116200, TP 119000-120000+ ➤ Invalidation: Prolonged breakdown of 116800: exit, wait for signal resynchronization. ➤ Catalysts: US CPI, watch for whipsaws (<1h pre/post-release). ➤ Risk management: Avoid adding if extreme volumes persist without ISP buy on short TFs (30m/1H), close monitoring ahead of data. ➤ On-chain context: Record volatility compression—major move likely soon; spot supply clustered—expect amplified reactions. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin facing breakout, active management recommended__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points Strong bullish momentum across all timeframes (MTFTI “Strong Up”). Key supports: 110,483–111,949. Major resistances: 118,689–119,499. Volumes normal to slightly elevated. No anomaly or climax. Behaviour: early caution signals on ISPD DIV (4H–2H), sector “sell” trigger on the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator (15min). __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary Overall bullish bias on all timeframes. Structural uptrend confirmed, but early behavioural/sector divergence at short term. Buy zones: pullback to 110,483–111,949. Stop/alert below 110,483 H4/H6 close. Opportunities: tight trailing above 118,689 to capture extension. Partial take profit advised in upper range (118,689–119,499) if divergences persist. Risks: geopolitical risk-off catalysts, start of selling extension, or loss of support. Plan: active management required, avoid overexposure, plan for key break levels, readiness to exploit imminent breakout. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis 1D : Price above all pivots, strong momentum. Key resistance in play (119,499), supports at 110,483/105,054. Volumes normal, bullish alignment. 12H : Confluence of resistances (119,499–115,495), structure intact, buy opportunity on retrace. No major alert. 6H : Strong buying extension, pure momentum. No excess signals. 4H : First divergence (ISPD DIV “sell”). Consolidation on resistance, consider partial profit-taking. 2H : Bullish momentum but ISPD DIV “sell” and moderately high volumes. Localized euphoria risk. 1H : No excess, post-breakout consolidation. 30min : Extreme consolidation, decelerating volumes, possible fatigue. 15min : Sector “sell” trigger (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Sell”). Trend remains up, but caution is advised. Multi-tf summary: Bullish alignment across all horizons. Short-term behavioural caution, but trend remains unchallenged as long as above 110,483–111,949. __________________________________________________________________________________ Synthesis & Strategic Bias Multi-timeframe momentum confirmed, watch supports at 110,483–111,949. Buy on valid retrace, take profit at highs if behaviour diverges. Break below 110,483 (H4/H6 close) = invalidation signal. Key triggers: geopolitical news, broken supports, selling spikes. Base scenario: likely imminent directional breakout (volatility). Watch for spikes on major headlines. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamentals and Macro News Uncertain backdrop (Fed, US inflation, bonds & FX), no major macro trigger in 48h but latent volatility. Crypto: Bitcoin stable, general accumulation, no violent distribution detected. Geopolitics: rising tensions (Iran, Ukraine). Can prompt sharp risk-off if escalation occurs. No major macroeconomic event scheduled (empty calendar). __________________________________________________________________________________ On-chain Analysis Accumulation phase for all holders, >19k BTC/month absorbed. Extreme volatility compression (coiling). Realized & implied volatility is exceptionally low, setting up violent move. ETF (IBIT BlackRock): record accumulation. Downside break could trigger psychological stress. Baseline: technical & on-chain setup disfavors bears. Any exogenous shock accelerates volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Recap & Action Plan Bullish bias validated, risk of market fatigue on short-term signals. Buy on controlled pullback, tight trailing at highs, partial profit-taking in 118,689–119,499 band. Swing stop below 110,000 (H4); total invalidation if daily support fails. Expect directional move + volatility on next impulse (8–48h). __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion BTC remains in a primary bullish trend, supported by on-chain accumulation and extreme structural compression. Only active management (profit, leverage, stops) optimizes R/R and prepares to respond to an imminent, directional volatility event. Stay proactive and plan! __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals: The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967. Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA). Fundamentals: The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays. A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations. Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs. Current narrative: The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency. Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mr_Anonymous_Investor
1
BTC Multi-TF Analysis: Bull Bias Holds, All Eyes on Resistance__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Very strong bullish bias across all major timeframes. No selling signal detected; slight micro-pause on 15min. Key Supports / Resistances: Immediate resistance at 111,000–112,500. Critical supports: 108,000–109,000, then 105,000. Any lasting break below 107,500 is a key alert. Volume: Healthy, balanced volumes. Some moderate surges on 1H/2H, but no climax. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy across all TFs except 15min (partial pause). Multi-TF behavior: Complete convergence. No sign of distribution. ISPD DIV neutral overall. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Dominant bias: Bullish, confirmed by both technical and on-chain context. Opportunities: Add on retracements to major supports (108k–109k, potentially 105k). Target breakout >112.5k for extension or further swing adds. Risk/Alert Zones: Breakdown <107.5k (especially with high volume/macro event). Congestion zone at 111–112.5k: monitor reactions and volumes closely. Macro catalysts: FOMC, Jobless Claims, Bond Auction (see economic calendar). Adjust sizing before and after. Action plan: Gradual buys on major supports; heightened monitoring pre-US announcements (avoid overexposure during high-volatility). Structural stop below 107.5k; for swing, <105k ideal. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Structurally solid market above key supports. No divergence or selling signals. Resistances: 111,500–112,500. Main support: 105,050. 12H: Dominant buyer pressure. Key support at 107,500–108,000. No speculative excess. 6H: Marked accumulation. Multi-TF resistance at 111,000–111,500. 4H: All trends aligned; focus on resistance 111–112k. 2H: Ongoing momentum. Moderate volume. Watch 107,400–108,000 for dips. 1H: Reinforced bullish bias; no short-term weakness. 30min: Opportunities on any pullback to supports (110,400, 109,000). 15min: Micro-pause on sector momentum. Potential consolidation below 111k–111,500. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong Buy on all TFs except 15min (neutral, no sell). ISPD DIV: Neutral across the curve, no behavioral excess detected. __________________________________________________________________________________ Cross Analysis & Executive Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Confluences: Major bullish bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in Strong Buy (except 15min). Balanced volumes. ISPD DIV neutral. Dissonances: Micro-pause on 15min momentum under resistance (possible very short-term consolidation). Opportunities: Pullbacks to 108k–109k or even 105k, clear breakout above 112.5k. Risks: Break below 107,500 (key alert), high volume+rejection under 111–112.5k (possible profit-taking). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-chain Focus __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro: Awaiting FOMC (late July), key US macro data (Jobless Claims, 30Y Bond Auction). Neutral to potentially high volatility environment around economic catalysts. On-chain: Long-term holder supply at ATH. US ETF inflows positive. Healthy on-chain: little short-term top risk. Key on-chain threshold at 98.3k (Short-Term Holder Cost Basis). Institutional: No panic, ongoing “disciplined accumulation”, no excess euphoria. __________________________________________________________________________________ Operational Action Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Closely monitor 111–112.5k resistance: reactively adapt based on price/volume. Gradual re-entries on major supports if no behavioral anomaly or excessive selling volume. Structural stop <107.5k, swing invalidation <105k. Swing opportunity window post-FOMC if dovish or calm. Adjust exposure and risk management around key macro dates. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
EUR/NZD – Macro Outlook & Why It’s a Conviction LongMacro Thesis: EUR/NZD presents one of the clearest long opportunities this week, supported by a sharp divergence in macro fundamentals, a favorable positioning landscape, and confirmation across sentiment and structural models. 🔍 Key Drivers: 1. Macro Fundamentals (ENDO): The euro area maintains a relatively stable inflationary outlook with moderate growth, while the ECB remains cautious but not overly dovish. In contrast, New Zealand is showing consistent deflationary pressure – inflation data is softening, M2 growth is stagnant, and real activity (PMI, Retail Sales, NFP) continues to cool. This creates a clean fundamental divergence in favor of the euro. 2. COT Positioning: There is no excessive long build-up on the EUR side, and NZD remains weak across institutional positioning metrics. This opens the door for further upside without the risk of crowded positioning. 3. Z-Score (Positioning Extremes): Z-Score data highlights NZD as sitting at an extreme negative reading (Z_Long < –1.7), suggesting it is fundamentally oversold and under institutional pressure. EUR, by contrast, is neutral. This imbalance further validates the long EUR/NZD setup, particularly from a flow and momentum continuation standpoint. 4. EXO Models (Score, RR_w, Interest Rate Bias): The pair scores well in weekly RR analysis, supported by strong ENDO/EXO bias convergence. NZD continues to lose monetary support (dovish IR & Overnight trends), while EUR stays relatively neutral. From a structural model perspective, the bias is clearly long. 5. Sentiment Environment: The global risk-on tone continues, but it’s paired with relative softness in commodity currencies like NZD. That dynamic adds additional fuel to the long side of EUR/NZD, especially while EUR remains resilient and stable. ✅ Summary & Trading Plan: Bias: Long EUR/NZD Conviction Level: High (9/10 – multi-layer confirmation) Holding Horizon: 1–3 weeks Invalidation: Exit on reversal of NZD macro tone or shift to risk-off globally Why This Pair? EUR/NZD offers one of the clearest expressions of fundamental divergence in the current macro environment. You have stable inflation and steady growth in Europe versus a weakening macro pulse in New Zealand. There are no major positioning risks, sentiment supports the setup, and structurally the pair aligns with the broader market tone. Clean macro. Clean structure. No crosswinds.
Long
by Idealadvantage
Bitcoin Analysis: Risk under 108k, aiming 111k+ in continuation__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Strong uptrend across all major timeframes (MTFTI “up”). Buyers remain in control; daily/4H/1H structure robust. Key supports: 108,239.1 (720min Pivot, critical transversal support), 105,054.7 (240min Pivot), 99,581 (240min Pivot). Active defense seen on 108,239.1 at all timeframes. Main resistances: 110,630.1 (1D), 110,483.1 (240min), 111,949 (W). The 110–111k area acts as the short-term ceiling. Volume: Moderate activity, no spikes or climaxes, slight intensification noted on the 30min during key tests. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: “STRONG BUY” signal on all Tfs ≥30min, contributing to marked bullish momentum. Minor short-term divergence only on 15min. Multi-TF behavior: ISPD DIV and Investor Satisfaction are neutral, no extreme behavioral stress; psychology is balanced, neither panic nor euphoria. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias: Bullish, synchronized multi-timeframes, dominant bullish liquidity. Opportunities: Optimal long entries on validated pullback to 108,239.1, add on breakout of 110,630–111,949. Gradual partial take profit recommended in the 111k area. Risk zones: Invalidation below 108,239.1 (confirmed H2 close), risk of further correction toward 105k then 99.5k; suggested swing stop under 108,000. Macro catalysts: No major event, global markets stable. Geopolitical tensions monitored, low short-term impact. Action plan: Prioritize “buy the dip” on pivots, active monitoring for any breakout/failure. Dynamic stop management, partial profit-taking on extension. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Very strong daily structure, high momentum, intermediate supports near 98k/100.5k. Watch for major resistances at 108–111k. 12H/6H/4H: Ranging below 110–111k resistance, no fragility. Supports 108,239.1 and 105,054.7 holding, no selling pressure detected. Watch for breakout/impulse. 2H/1H: Buy zone if maintained >108,239.1, risk of sell-off below this pivot toward 105k. Price is ranging, momentum remains positive. 30min/15min: Consolidation on supports. 15min: temporary divergence on the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator but bullish structure intact unless a clean break below 108,239.1. Risk On / Risk Off summaries: Dominant “strong buy” tone, synchronized momentum, only weak short-term divergence. No behavioral stress (ISPD DIV neutral everywhere). __________________________________________________________________________________ Cross-analysis and recommendations __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: Bullish environment sustained as long as >108,239.1. Continued upside bias if breakout above 110–111k is confirmed. Risks: No major vulnerabilities detected. Very low probability of a local top, except in the case of exogenous macro shock. Macro & On-chain: Stable newsflow, no distribution from HODLers or significant new inflows. Preferred strategy: swing trading in trend direction, tight stop under the main pivot. __________________________________________________________________________________ Decision summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Preferred scenario: Hold long >108,239.1, add on validated pullback, look for breakout with volume extension to 111k+. Risk management: Stop under 108,000, partial profit-taking in the 110,630–111,949 area. No immediate macro constraints: Use this calm window to ride the trend. Monitoring: Resilience of the main support, any sudden geopolitical shocks. BTC/USDT keeps a clear bullish bias, favoring swing or trend-following strategies as long as key pivots hold. Buy the dips remains optimal while technical structure holds; strict stop management is advised pending any “breakout fail”.
by Ox_kali
Bitcoin Robust Bullish Structure, Key Entries at 105k & 100k__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish momentum confirmed across all timeframes : Structure remains healthy, no behavioral anomalies detected. Key supports: Main HTF pivot around $98,000–$100,000; first intermediate support zone at $105,000. Major resistances: Critical area between $109,000 and $112,000, dense pivot and volume profile confluence. Volumes: Normal to very high depending on TF, no speculative excess; gradual rise hints at possible expansion phase. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong Buy from daily to 1H, shifting to neutral on shorter timeframes (30min–15min). ISPD DIV/Mason's line: Predominantly neutral histogram, no overheat or capitulation detected. Multi-timeframe behavior: Robust underlying structure, increased volatility but no massive selling stress. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global bias: Bullish dominance as long as $98k–$100k holds. Opportunity zones: Buy on pullback to $105k, swing confirm above $111k with volume/ISPD validation. Risk / Invalidation: Stop loss below $98k; extra caution on macro/Fed events. Macro catalysts: Fed/NFP-US (July 2–4), monitor behavior via ISPD DIV (blue to red). Action plan: Structured and tactical long bias, “no trade” zone before major US releases, immediate stop on support break. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D: Bullish momentum, no overheat. Pivot 98–100k = strategic fallback. 12H–6H: Signs remain bullish, no anomalies, intermediate supports at 105–107k. 4H–2H: Positive consolidation, rising volumes; possible accumulation on 105k dips. 1H–30min: Multiple resistances under 110–112k, very high volumes, maintain vigilance for sudden spikes. 15min: Extreme volatility, but no clear seller excess; watch for “trap” formation. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong Buy on main timeframes, shifting to neutral/buy on 30min/15min (breather zone). ISPD DIV/Mason's line: No buyer capitulation, overall neutral histogram. Summary: Bullish cross-timeframe alignment, only macro events may trigger a break. Key economic calendar - 07/02: Powell speech – Potential added risk-on boost. - 07/02: US tariff updates – Possible volatility. - 07/04: NFP, ISM... High expected volatility. Action : Heightened caution pre-announcements, validate through volume/ISPD. On-chain: Dominant HODLing, no dumping, stable institutional volume. Macro: Fed, inflation, geopolitics under watch. Tactical: Spot any warning via ISPD or volume cluster. __________________________________________________________________________________ Conclusion & risk management __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish bias as long as $98k–$100k holds . Optimal buy on $105k/$100k dips, swing confirm on $111k break . Outside of US events: strict tactical discipline required . Absolute invalidation zone: break below $98k (HTF + STH cost-basis) . Remain vigilant for ISPD red + volume spike / macro headlines . __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali