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Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly TF 2025Overview This analysis outlines the structural Fibonacci confluences, scenario planning, and macro-aligned projections for Gold (XAUUSD) on the weekly timeframe. It integrates multi-layered Fibonacci extensions and retracements, mapping out key support and resistance levels, and proposes a nuanced primary scenario that includes both intermediate rallies and corrective movements. Primary Scenario – Multi-Stage Movement Hypothesis We anticipate that gold may initially extend higher from the current level (~$3,325) to test the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $3,435, with the possibility of a further intermediate peak near $3,500. This level marks a psychological and technical resistance zone and could act as a temporary top. Following this local peak, a corrective phase may unfold. This pullback could evolve into one of the two outlined correction scenarios: 1 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,950 Basis: 100% Fib extension confluence and prior resistance turned support Expected Outcome: Price stabilizes at this level and resumes upward momentum 2 TP Correction Scenario Support Target: ~$2,650 Basis: Strong historical structure + 100% Fib confluence from a broader cycle Expected Outcome: This zone acts as a long-term demand accumulation area Upon completion of the corrective structure, we expect gold to reinitiate its primary bullish trend. Bullish Continuation Targets TP1: ~$4,050 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) TP2: ~$4,319 (261.8% Fibonacci extension) These targets align with macroeconomic conditions, central bank accumulation trends, and long-term structural cycles. Supporting Technicals RSI: Holding above 50, indicating preserved bullish momentum MACD: Positive crossover with widening histogram on weekly timeframe Price Action: Strong support zone between $3,280–$3,300 aligning with 161.8% Fib retracement of the recent minor wave Macro Fundamentals & Correlations Central Bank Gold Demand: Sustained net buying by BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, supports the structural bid on gold Fed Policy: Market anticipates a prolonged pause or gradual rate cuts, favoring non-yielding assets like gold DXY & US10Y Yields: Any further decline in DXY or softening yields would add tailwinds to gold Crypto Correlation: During inflationary hedging or systemic risk periods, gold and crypto may correlate positively, especially with weakening USD Intermarket Relationships: Gold, DXY, and TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold vs. DXY (US Dollar Index) Gold historically maintains an inverse correlation with DXY. A rising DXY tends to apply downward pressure on gold prices, while a falling DXY enhances gold's upside momentum. Scenario Interactions: If DXY breaks below 98, this could validate the bullish scenario for gold toward $3,435–$4,050. If DXY rallies back above 100, it could trigger the correction scenarios ($2,950 or $2,650) in gold. Gold vs. TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) Gold and TOTAL may show positive correlation during periods of USD weakening and global liquidity expansion. Scenario Interactions: If gold rallies toward $3,500 and TOTAL also breaks key resistance (e.g., $1.8T–$2T), this signals synchronized bullish risk appetite. If gold corrects while TOTAL continues to rise, it could indicate rotation of liquidity from defensive to risk-on assets. A simultaneous correction in both may occur if DXY strengthens aggressively or if macro shocks reduce global liquidity. These intermarket relationships should be monitored continuously to assess the evolving macro context and validate the chosen scenario. In the case of a gold correction toward $2,950 or $2,650, the impact on altcoins will hinge on the prevailing macroeconomic backdrop. If the correction stems from a healthy, technical rebalancing within a risk-on environment—without a concurrent surge in the U.S. dollar—it could signal a shift in capital from defensive assets like gold into more speculative plays, including altcoins. This type of capital rotation often benefits the crypto market, particularly if TOTAL (crypto market cap) holds or advances structurally. However, if the correction is caused by rising dollar strength, tightening financial conditions, or broader risk-off sentiment, altcoins may instead suffer alongside gold, as liquidity is withdrawn across the board. Therefore, the context and drivers behind gold’s correction are crucial in assessing its downstream effects on altcoin performance. From a philosophical lens, gold's cyclical ascent and retreat mirrors the rhythm of nature and human experience—expansion, contraction, and renewal. Just as rivers carve valleys before surging toward the ocean, the market too must surrender gains to gather force. A correction in gold is not merely a financial event, but a moment of recalibration—an inhale before the next exhale of momentum. It invites reflection: whether wealth seeks refuge or ventures into risk, whether fear contracts or ambition expands. In this interplay, altcoins may inherit the restless spirit of capital in search of yield, as gold, the ancient anchor of value, briefly pauses in its timeless journey. Conclusion We present a multi-phased path for gold where: An initial bullish breakout toward $3,435–$3,500 forms a short- to mid-term peak A subsequent correction brings gold to either $2,950 or $2,650, depending on macro triggers A renewed bull rally drives gold toward $4,050 and potentially $4,319 and beyond This scenario reflects both the cyclical nature of market structure and the macro-fundamental backing that continues to support long-term gold strength.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BitonGroup
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
Macro Outlook: Trade War Jitters, Deficit, NFP FridayAlthough there is a headline fatigue and markets have been stabilizing with the worst of trade war story behind us, the fact is that uncertainty still looms. President Trump announced over the weekend that he will double down on US steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% effective June 4th. Highlight this week is US Jobs data this Friday. A key point to determine the resilience of the US labor market. With FED Chair Powell speaking today and FED speakers scheduled throughout the week, it will be key to watch how they shape markets' probability of rate cuts? As we previously explained, ongoing uncertainty and dragging trade concerns present more risks until resolved. Here are some key points to consider: It remains to be seen whether the trade deficit will continue to worsen or begin to reverse. April trade data, along with any policy shifts such as a reversal on reciprocal tariffs, will be important to monitor. These indicators will provide insight into how businesses are interpreting ongoing trade uncertainty. The key question is whether they will continue front-loading inventory in anticipation of future disruptions, or if the focus will shift toward restructuring supply chains and reining in spending as part of a longer-term strategic adjustment. At the same time, consumer spending remains resilient, supporting overall demand. However, pressure may be building on business balance sheets, particularly businesses with poor cash flow to manage front loading inventory spending as the trade environment remains volatile. If consumer spending begins to weaken, businesses may be forced to cut costs, scale back investment, or offer steep discounts to clear excess inventory. This could lead to a cycle of margin compression, especially if firms attempt to pass higher costs onto price-sensitive consumers, potentially suppressing demand further. Conversely, if businesses choose to absorb rising costs to maintain competitive pricing, they face deteriorating margins but may be betting on continued strength in consumer credit, household savings buffers as evident. Consumer confidence, despite being low, is not an accurate indicator in times of uncertainty. Here, we should watch what consumers do and not the sentiment. In this scenario, firms may delay cost-cutting in the hope that continued strength in consumer spending will support revenues through the rest of the year. A central tension remains: businesses must navigate a delicate balance between protecting margins and preserving demand. Meanwhile, persistent trade uncertainty and tighter financial conditions may slow capital investment and hiring, further complicating the outlook. Whether firms shift from defensive postures like front-loading toward long-term structural changes in supply chains will hinge on how durable current consumer strength proves to be and how responsive trade policy becomes in the months ahead. Ongoing front-loading has caused ripples as the trade deficit has further widened. Will this reverse as businesses focus on sales and revenue instead of front-loading inventory? In our analysis, trade imports, trade balance, consumer spending and corporate profits will be key to monitor despite being lagging indicators. On the other hand, equally important to watch and monitor goods exports, durable goods to assess and evaluate the other side of the equation. However, our focus is on imports as manufacturing jobs are at their lowest in US history. Once the dust has settled and trade deals are locked in, it will be important to note if Exports by Country experience any significant shifts. What does all this mean for the stock market and futures? In simple terms, the yearly pivot and last month’s high is a major resistance area for index futures. Until this is cleared, we may see a range bound market and two way trade. There is a lot of weak structure to revisit lower. Markets may perhaps retest this before resuming higher. What we would want to see is, last month’s low holding support and this month’s price action trading inside previous month’s range or resuming higher. If we revisit May Monthly Lows, we may see increased selling pressure come in.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by EdgeClear
EURUSD CRACK!I first turned bullish on the EUR back in November 2024 after the disastrous election results. I have always felt the 105 area was a good area to go long, fundamentally going back all the way to 2017. Here is an example. After 17 years of data, we can all agree that the 105 area was a great value to get long the EUR. Now we see a major CRACK! in the chart with the fundamentals to back it up. Again, I remind you I am a MACRO Trader. So my trades hold for a long, long time unless the facts change. I don't do 3 pips and i am out crap! Let this be a WARNING! To the dollar bulls! Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets, too. ))
Long
by RealMacro
1
US Gov Spending to Tax Revenues & Debt to GDPUS government spending is exceeding tax revenues by over 2:1, reaching extreme levels compared to historical norms and worsening rapidly More alarmingly, unlike past decades, the US government's total debt-to-GDP ratio is also rising sharply with no end in sight, accelerating in the wrong direction. For this reason, bond investors are currently demanding higher interest rates. Trump's tariffs, undermining trust in Gov, the economy, and markets, are creating conditions for a global currency crisis coupled with an economic recession or depression. If you think this information has no impact on your trading/investing, you are making a grave and possibly an expensive mistake. Click Boost, follow, and subscribe for more. Let's get to 5,000 followers. ))
FRED:FGEXPND
by RealMacro
4
Deposits All Commercial Banks & US DebtWhen a politician and their buddy start spouting nonsense about the US debt spiraling out of control, but then insist that tax cuts are great because they’ll create jobs, and all that money will somehow trickle down to the rest of us, magically boosting tax revenue to "make up" for the lost funds. Especially when that same politician was re-elected bc inflation & the economy were just so horrible, promising he would come in and save the day bringing prices down again with more tax cuts because they worked so great the first time around. That's the extreme right. What about the extreme left #MMT? #MMT is just as bad as MAGAs! They will tell you deficits are great! Deficits add to our savings! Deficits make us all richer! It's accounting, they say! it has to be that way! Except for the little fact that it's not based on empirical evidence. So the next time some B.S. Artist tells you their little version of a fictional money story, you will know what reality is since 2018. You will have seen this chart with your own eyes and cannot unsee it! No matter what you do, no matter what side you lean politically, it's irrelevant. Public debt since the tax cuts have grown exponentially, while the private sector deposits have lagged to the point they have stagnated completely since 2021. Barely rising 6%. Defunding CIA, FBI, USAID, Dept of Education etc.. will do absolutely nothing to make up for all the lost tax revenue since 2018 and the next tax cuts to follow. In fact, when we enter a recession, the deficits will explode even higher as tax revenues collapse and social and economic stabilizers (if there are any left) kick in. Then what? Don't shoot the messenger!
FRED:DPSACBW027SBOGLong
by RealMacro
2
Taiwan Dollar Weakens Past 30 per USD Amid Trade Rumors and CentThe Taiwanese dollar weakened past 30 per USD on Tuesday, reversing a two-day rally and retreating from its strongest level in nearly three years. 📉 Recent gains in Asian currencies like the TWD and MYR were fueled by speculation over regional support for U.S. trade talks. However, Taiwan’s central bank denied any such coordination, stating the U.S. made no formal request. President Lai Ching-te also warned against spreading misinformation. 🔧 As a key player in global chip production, Taiwan remains highly exposed to shifts in trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.
IG:TAIWAN
by ChartMage
DEFENSE EU vs USEU defense massively outperforming the US up 50% from the lows. Lockheed Martin is forced to console American allies, convincing them not to abandon the US Defense industry as Trump completely destroys it with his pro-Russia behavior. I don't see any way back to NATO normal. Trump has weaponized the US defense industry against our (former allies?) allies and that is unacceptable. The US defense industry mostly sells $107 billion annually to NATO, EU nations. This win-win EU-US relationship between our allies has made it possible for the US to develope and sustain military technology we would otherwise not have been able to afford alone. So America first? Not really. More like America last! At any rate, should a downturn occur and need to be long. #EUAD is a good place to be.
CBOE:EUADLong
by RealMacro
8
USOIL CAUTION! BREAK - TEST - GO!This is my new updated chart of Oil. Trump's "Drill baby Drill" interfering with the free market is the absolute worst thing he could do. His ridiculous tariffs will put us in an economic depression! Oil prices are driven by demand! As I have mentioned here on TV so many times before! Increasing supply while heading into a recession is the dumbest thing possible! You never want to consume your own oil when you can consume others first! Simultaneously, F your own nation's oil company's profit margins and gov tax revenue! This is why we shouldn't put toddlers as POTUS! Anyway!!! This is a break test go! setup! If you haven't seen it before, here is an example I recently posted with AAPL. Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets too. ))
TVC:USOILShort
by RealMacro
2
USDJPY Long Setup – Fundamental + Sentiment AlignmentAfter a full macro, COT, and sentiment analysis for this week, USDJPY stands out as the cleanest opportunity. ✅ Strong USD support: solid economic growth, persistent inflation, and elevated Treasury yields. ✅ Extremely weak JPY: Bank of Japan remains dovish, with low inflation and no sign of tightening policy. ✅ Risk sentiment: Stable to positive, favoring continuation of USD strength. Bias: Long USDJPY Risk: Unexpected shifts in US data or global risk-off shocks. 🔔 If you like this type of detailed analysis combining fundamentals, positioning, and sentiment — make sure to follow me for weekly setups and insights. Let's trade smarter, not harder. 🚀
Long
by Idealadvantage
DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong.... Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower. What a difference 2 months can make! Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring. CAUTION is in order!! Target not reached! Forced on me. As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen. As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression! WARNING!
TVC:DXYShort
by RealMacro
4
Long EURNZD – Seasonal, Fundamentals & Technical ConfluenceWe are entering a long position on EURNZD, capitalizing on a powerful confluence of: Seasonal EUR strength + NZD weakness (April 10 – May 15) A clear bullish market structure (CHoCH, HH/HL) A clean Fibonacci retracement entry at 0.5 Strong macro divergence, with NZD exogenous conditions deteriorating Macro & Seasonal Context EUR enters a strong seasonal uptrend from April 10 to end of month NZD shows seasonal weakness from April 15 onward NZD’s exogenous model score worsened to -12 in April While NZD LEI and endo improved, it remains structurally weak Timing Best execution: on pullback to 1.9373 zone, ideally between April 10–15, aligned with seasonal entry window.
Long
by wajahatarif
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much. As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy. The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this. My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020. WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TVC:US30YShort
by RealMacro
6
EUROPE VS US Stock Dramatic Moves CAUTION!Zelenskyy Oval office ambush did much more than ambush and betray an ally in support of a dictator like Putin. Betraying an ally destroyed the trust in the U.S. government. Without trust in the government, democracy cannot be, leaving only a dictatorship capable of surviving. Markets have spoken very loudly with trillions of dollars, not words out of people's mouths. Superpowers are only as strong as their allies. Isolationism doesn't work. Ask N. Korea, The Soviets etc.. why that is. Trust can not be granted nor taken, it may only be lost. CAUTION IS IN ORDER!
AMEX:VGKLong
by RealMacro
7
All Federal Employees To US PopulationI think it is important for people to full understand that the 172,000 job cuts from the Federal Government is more about showmanship than logic. The federal gov employees as a % of the population has been falling for decades through the growth of the population and the economy. This is the absolute best way to reduce gov. Debt, deficits, etc.. through growth, NOT cutting and causing a heart attack! Slow mythological, calculated cuts if/when they are required are fine. chaotic, reactive, for the sake of showmanship is NOT! This will not end well. There will be consequences, people have yet to realize and appreciate the severity of these actions. These actions taken by the current administration will be felt in the markets.
FRED:CES9091000001
by RealMacro
16
Why I Believe Brent Crude Oil is Headed to $125 by 2026tradingview.sweetlogin.com 1. Supply Constraints: Geopolitics & Trade Wars One of the biggest drivers of higher oil prices is geopolitical instability and trade policy shifts. We're already seeing major disruptions that could tighten supply further: Middle East Tensions – The ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea, Iran, and Israel continue to create uncertainty. Attacks on shipping routes and production facilities raise the cost of transporting oil and increase the risk of supply disruptions. Russia-Ukraine War – With Russian oil facing sanctions and restrictions, global supply chains have had to adjust, making energy markets more fragile. OPEC+ Output Cuts – OPEC has repeatedly restricted production to keep prices elevated, and there’s no indication they’ll reverse course anytime soon. U.S.-China Trade War & Tariffs – With Trump leading in the 2024 election polls, there’s a growing possibility that tariffs on China will return. If this happens, energy trade flows could be further disrupted, and retaliatory tariffs could add to price pressures. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Depletion – The U.S. used a huge portion of its SPR to lower oil prices in 2022-2023, but refilling those reserves will create additional demand, pushing prices even higher. With these factors at play, supply is becoming more constrained, making it easier for prices to rise with even small increases in demand. 2. Demand Boom: AI, Bitcoin Mining, and Agriculture While supply is tightening, demand for energy is skyrocketing in unexpected ways. AI Data Centers & Industrial Demand AI computing is extremely energy-intensive, and as companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to expand cloud computing infrastructure, demand for electricity is surging. Many data centers still rely on fossil fuels for backup power and cooling systems, meaning oil and gas usage will continue to increase. Bitcoin (BTC) Mining Bitcoin mining requires massive amounts of electricity, and as BTC prices rise, mining activity expands in energy-dependent regions. With the 2024 BTC halving, miners will have to run at full efficiency, which translates to higher global energy consumption. Agriculture & Food Production The world’s growing population and extreme weather events (like El Niño) are driving higher food production needs. Fertilizer production, transportation, and machinery all require oil, meaning agricultural commodities are directly contributing to higher energy demand. Together, these factors suggest that demand for oil is only going to increase, making it harder for supply to keep up. 3. Oil Price vs. Stock Market: The $100 Warning Zone Historically, when oil prices get too high, the stock market struggles. Some key examples: 2008 Recession: Oil peaked at $147 per barrel, right before the financial crisis. 2018 Market Drop: When oil hit $80+, stocks sold off sharply. 2022 Inflation Shock: Oil reached $120+, leading to Fed rate hikes and market turmoil. Why $100+ Oil is a Warning Sign for Stocks Higher oil prices = higher inflation. This forces central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high, making borrowing more expensive. Energy costs impact corporate profits. Companies across multiple sectors will see shrinking profit margins as transportation and production costs rise. Consumer spending takes a hit. Gasoline prices cut into disposable income, which weakens overall economic growth. If Brent crude pushes above $100, expect increased market volatility and a potential selloff in equities. 4. Brent Crude Technicals: Price Targets for 2026 Current Setup Price Holding Key Support (~$70-$74) – Brent is respecting major trendlines, signaling strong demand in this area. Breakout Zone Around $80-$82 – If price moves above this level, it could trigger a rally to $100+. Fibonacci Levels Align with $125 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at $106 → First major resistance. 0.786 Fib extension at $119 → Likely next target. 1.272 Fib extension near $125 → Final upside target for 2026. This technical setup aligns with macro fundamentals and historical oil cycles, making a move to $125 increasingly probable. 5. Investment & Trading Strategy Long-Term Bullish Strategy Accumulation Zone: $70-$74 (solid support). Upside Targets: $106, $119, $125. Stop Loss Consideration: Below $68 (invalidates thesis). Hedging Against Market Risk SPX Put Options / VIX Calls – If oil rises toward $100+, consider hedging against an equity downturn. Energy Stocks (XLE, Exxon, Chevron) – These stocks tend to outperform during oil bull markets. Gold & Commodities – Hard assets often rally when energy prices increase. Conclusion: The Path to $125 Brent Oil Geopolitical instability + supply cuts = higher prices. AI, Bitcoin, and food production = rising demand. If oil approaches $100, watch for an equities pullback. While no forecast is perfect, all signs point to oil prices rising into 2026. If this trend plays out, investors should be prepared for higher inflation, tighter Fed policy, and increased market volatility. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you think oil will hit $125, or are we headed lower? 🚀📊
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by JavierXBT
Prepere yourself for buying opportunities ... So there we are ... CPI little bit higher than exceptating , powel clearly talks about monetary policy and Trump goin wild with tarrifs ... what to except in this macro&political economic driven environment ? I don't think it will grow to extreme values ​​now. Rather, there will be some more carving and from a short-term perspective an opportunity to buy at a good price ... Well, it is very important, at least for me in this environment of a trade war combined with a period when historically the Fed has raised rates and not lowered them as many expect. It is important to take profits and hold losses short and uncompromisingly exit losing positions. The year 2025 will be full of opportunities, which goes hand in hand with pain. What is heaven for one guy is hell for another guy. I am a fan of everyone who tries to make money in this environment and I hope to rob you of your money. Because that is what the market is about. Good luck and enjoy your game
TVC:VIX
by STLMfx
1
All Employees to Population Flashing CAUTION!As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how much output an economy can generate. Reciprocating tariffs certainly won't help exporters grow profit or create jobs. Caution is in order!
FRED:PAYEMSShort
by RealMacro
Sell off across U.S. Equity into Monday U.S. openU.S. equity indicies failed to register new highs at the close of inauguration week on the heels of famed Trump 'tariff talk' and the initiation of mass immigration reform. Friday 1/24/2025 we saw the bulls slightly outnumbered by bearish interest before the 'full weight' of the move was felt coming towards the close of Sydney/open of London session into today Monday, January 27 of 2025. The dollar is weak, the price of metals is subdued as of writing and bonds have sky-rocketed across the board in a clear display of a flight to safety (guaranteed interest during a time of uncertainty in RISK-assets). Due to a clear risk off sentiment reflected in the flight to safety in the bond market, I'm calling U.S. equity indicies to be in a sell-off for monday 1/27/2025 across the board. We have MAGS and FAANG earnings reporting this week in addition to an FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday - While the price action might become a blood-bath for a while, it may or may not be part of an over-due correction of a broader sequence.
CBOT:ZT1!Short
by AngelCPeel-Salazar