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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Global Banks Profit from Tariff Volatility Major banks like JPMorgan, BofA, and Citigroup are expected to see ~10% growth in trading revenue in Q2, fueled by volatility from President Trump’s tariff policy shifts. Treasury trading volumes hit record highs as markets priced in policy swings 📈 S&P 500 Nears Lull Amid Bull Market Strains Despite record highs in 2025, investors are warning that the rally may be reaching its limit. Bullish sentiment is strong, but analysts caution that sluggish consumer spending, rising inflation from tariffs, and few rate-cut signals from the Fed could cap downside momentum 🐻 Bear Case Gains Ground Stifel’s Barry Bannister projected a potential ~12% correction in the second half of 2025. Key risks include slowing consumer spending, weak capital investment under tariff uncertainty, and persistent core inflation above 3%, negatively impacting earnings and growth outlooks ⚖️ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Could Add Trillions in Debt The new fiscal package signed July 4 will add $3–4 trillion to national debt over the next decade while extending tax cuts and revising EV incentives. Bond market and Fed policy implications may become more pronounced if growth fails to keep pace 📊 Stocks vs Bonds: Diverging Signals While equities climb and megacaps extend gains, Treasury yields have risen five days straight—signaling growing caution over real growth prospects. The yield curve steepening hints at mixed signals: growth optimism in stocks, but bond market signaling economic risk ahead 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Thursday, July 10: No major scheduled economic releases. Markets remain driven by tariff headlines, bank earnings reactions, and evolving Fed signals. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #marketvolatility #tariffs #banks #Fed #debt #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 Tariff Pause Extended to August 1 President Trump delayed the July 9 tariff deadline, pushing negotiations into early August. Markets reacted with muted volatility, suggesting growing comfort that deals will be struck—yet widespread uncertainty remains 💵 Junk Bonds Rally Amid Tariff Tangling Despite ongoing tariff risks, investors are doubling down on U.S. high-yield (junk) bonds. They anticipate the Fed may refrain from tightening further—favoring spread-tightening to around 7–8% yields—reflecting confidence in credit quality 🏦 Fed Faces Tough Call on Rate Path New business surveys show conflicting signals: mixed revenue outlooks, cautious spending, and ongoing tariff pressures. The Fed must weigh slower growth against inflationary risks—keeping the door open to rate cuts in the autumn but unlikely before September 📊 Equities Firm Amid Tariff Uncertainty Stocks showed resilience—S&P 500 and futures held position—after Monday’s tariff-triggered dip. Dip-buying and expectations of extended trade talks kept markets steady despite policy noise 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 9: All Day – Ongoing U.S.–tariff negotiations; markets focused on any progress toward formal deal-making or extension terms. Midday – Watch for headlines on tariff letters to 14 countries and any movement in trade discussions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #Fed #fixedincome #credit #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Macro Moves & Market Reversals: BTC-Metals-Tech-Dollar & more! 🤖📊 Macro Moves & Market Reversals: Bitcoin, Metals, Tech, Dollar & DAX Breakdown 🔥💹 Hey beautiful people, FXPROFESSOR here with a massive market update to kick off the week. This one’s for my serious traders—those of you ready to read the market like a pro 📚💡 We’re in a critical transition. The Trump–Powell standoff, rate cut games, tariff escalations, and a surprising shift in risk appetite across bonds, metals, and equities are reshaping the entire trading landscape. Let’s get into the full breakdown 👇 🧠 MACRO FIRST – THE FUNDAMENTAL PULSE 🟢 Interest Rates: The Fed is keeping rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing strong jobs data. 147K jobs added, unemployment at 4.1%. The market wanted bad news for rate cuts... didn’t get it. 🗓 September remains the most likely cut, but the Fed isn’t rushing. Strong labor = slow policy change. ⚠️ Tariffs Heating Up: Trump just slapped 25–40% tariffs on imports from Japan, Korea, and others – effective August 1. ➡️ If no political resolution by July 9, prepare for a volatility wave. Tariffs = supply chain risks + cost-push inflation. 💣 Geopolitics: Middle East tensions remain background noise, but no major disruptions for now. Still, oil remains sensitive. 📈 Risk Appetite (Bonds): U.S. Treasuries still lagging, but junk bonds and quality credit (LQD) have pumped. That’s a big clue: risk appetite is returning, even without a Fed pivot. 📉 DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – "THE YEAR OF THE NORMALIZED DOLLAR" We’ve followed this dollar short all year. 🔻 From rejection at 100.965, DXY dropped straight into our long-term 94–95 target zone. 📌 Now what? This level is MAJOR. A bounce could trap dollar bears. 🧭 No new short from me unless we re-tag 100+. The juice is squeezed. Key takeaway: The dollar already priced in rate cuts, and we didn’t even get them. That’s telling me the next macro move might not be so predictable. 💰 BITCOIN – STILL THE KING 📍 BTC at $115K resistance – a level I’ve charted for years, not weeks. Three hits: 1️⃣ First rejection 2️⃣ Second rejection 3️⃣ And now... a decisive moment 🚨 Break 115K → BTC flies. 📉 Fail here → we could revisit $64K, yes, seriously. I’m ready for both outcomes. This is not the time for hopium. It’s 50/50. 🪙 BTC DOMINANCE – THE ALTCOIN SWITCH BTC.D is now above 65%. That means: ✔️ Capital flowing back into BTC ❌ Altcoins not ready yet We don’t chase alts until BTC.D hits 71.3–72.9%. That’s the real “altseason trigger zone.” 🔒 I’m personally turned off from alts for now—too much noise, too many memes, not enough macro support. 🔩 PRECIOUS METALS – SHINING BRIGHT 💛 Gold (XAU/USD): Reached near $3,500 highs Now stalling 🛑 Taking profits here – caution warranted. 🤍 Silver (XAG/USD): 13-year high Holding $36+ well Potential breakout pending global inflation data 💿 Platinum (the sleeper): +47% YTD Beautiful long setup played out exactly as planned Still bullish above $1,400 if supply squeeze continues 💡 ETFs in metals are seeing inflows – more institutions hedging as dollar weakens. 🚗🔌 TECH STOCKS – NVDA, TSLA & THE NASDAQ 📈 NVIDIA (NVDA) Best trade of the year for me Clean re-entry, now hitting ATH levels AI demand + tight supply = rocket fuel ⚡ Tesla (TSLA) Bounce off 4H trendline Still lagging slightly – political tensions (Trump vs. Musk) not helping But levels are working like a charm 📊 NASDAQ (QQQ) Hit our “max pain” zone perfectly Rebounded with textbook precision Momentum intact – watching for new highs 🇩🇪 DAX INDEX – CHARTS DON’T LIE All-time high. Boom. Called it weeks ago. Despite: No Russian energy Industrial drag ECB policy constraints 📌 But what worked? ➡️ Simple chart structure. ➡️ Market psychology. ➡️ Pure TA. Now at resistance again. Watch carefully – support below is clearly defined. 🧾 FINAL THOUGHTS – THE PROFESSOR'S NOTES 🔹 The market’s narrative can change fast, especially with Trump in the mix. He’s Mr. Volatility. 🔹 Powell holds the real power – and right now, he’s not flinching. 🔹 Risk appetite is back – but not evenly. Bitcoin is leading, altcoins are lagging, metals are maturing. 🔹 If rate cuts materialize in September, expect massive rotation across all risk assets. 💭 Until then, I’m playing level-to-level. No FOMO. Just charts and logic. That’s how we survive, and thrive. Let me know which chart you want next – and thank you for staying sharp 💪📚 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TVC:DXY
by FX_Professor
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Stocks Slip on New Tariff Threats President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar starting August 1, reigniting trade jitters. The Dow fell ~0.9%, the S&P 500 dropped ~0.8%, and the Nasdaq slid ~0.9% on the news, while bond futures rallied and the dollar strengthened ⚖️ Tariff Pause Deadline Looms Markets are focused on the July 9 deadline for the current tariff pause, which now hinges on imminent trade negotiations. Investors are balancing the risk of reimposition against progress with agreements involving the U.K., Vietnam, and Canada 💵 Consumer Credit Moderates June’s consumer credit increase slowed to $10.60 billion vs. April’s $17.87 billion—still strong, but a cooling sign in household borrowing patterns. This tempered the dollar’s rise amid mixed signals on consumer resilience. 🛢️ Oil Drops on Rising OPEC+ Supply Oil prices fell, with Brent dipping to ~$68.00/barrel and WTI to ~$65.30, after confirmation of OPEC+’s August supply hike—adding to bearish cues for energy stocks . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 8: 3:00 PM ET – Consumer Credit (June) Moderation in borrowing signals possible easing in consumer-driven growth. 4:30 PM ET – API Weekly Crude Inventories A key indicator for energy markets; lower inventories lift oil prices, while builds push them down. Throughout the Day – Tariff Pause Deadline Market stability hinges on whether trade agreements materialize before the break expires. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #consumercredit #oil #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 7–11, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 7–11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 📈 From Panic to "Goldilocks" Rally The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs, surging ~20% from April lows. Markets rallied on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, the 90‑day tariff pause, a new fiscal bill in Washington, and strong June jobs data. Still, strategists caution that optimism may be ahead of fundamentals, especially if trade volatility returns 💱 Dollar Weakness & Bond Market Watch The U.S. dollar remains near 3.5‑year lows amid rate‑cut speculation and trade progress. Treasury yields are volatile this week, impacted by concerns over escalating debt issuance, upcoming tariff deadlines (July 9), and the Federal Reserve’s stance . 🏢 Tech Leadership Shifts With the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks near heights, growth is spreading: cyclical sectors, small‑caps, and industrials are gaining momentum. AI remains the primary engine, but resilience across a broader stock base is signaling a potentially sustainable rally ⚠️ Tariff Truce Deadline Looms (July 9) The April tariff pause expires mid‑week. U.S. plans to extend exemptions via trade talks with partners like UK, Vietnam, and Canada—yet any delay or failure may shock markets. Watch for headlines that may trigger spillover effects . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, July 7: Independence Day markets resume. Light trading expected ahead of data and tariff deadline. 📅 Tuesday, July 8: 10:00 AM ET – Consumer Credit (June) Gauges borrowing trends—an indicator of household health in a low‑rate environment. 📅 Wednesday, July 9: EIA Crude Oil Inventories & MBA Mortgage Apps & Wholesale Inventories Key mid‑week data points; oil builds may pressure energy stocks. Tariff Pause Deadline – Expect market volatility on news of extension or reimposition. 📅 Thursday, July 10: 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET – Natural Gas Inventories Markets focus on labor health and energy trends. 📅 Friday, July 11: 10:00 AM ET – Treasury Budget Statement Details on government borrowing and fiscal outlook—markets sensitive to deficit risks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: These insights are for educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investing decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #tariffs #Fed #AI #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - Daily Price Uptrend, Resistance Breakout TestBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been in a recent Daily price Uptrend, rallying up from the $100,000 price support level. A SMA Golden Cross printed on May 21st, 2025. Bitcoin price is attempting a resistance zone test and has yet to breakout and hold above the $111,000 to $112,000 price zone. Resistance levels: $110,000 , $112,000 , $117,000 , $121,000. Support levels: $108,000 , $107,000 , $105,000 , $104,000 , $100,000. Recent crypto industry, government legislation news, and institutional crypto purchases have helped to keep Bitcoin price above $100,000 support. Stock market correlation volatility could also affect the crypto market and prices for the next 30 to 45 days.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by NoFomoCharts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 U.S. Private Payrolls Surround Weakness The ADP report showed a drop of 33,000 private-sector jobs in June, the first decline in over two years, reflecting businesses holding back hiring amid trade uncertainty. However, layoffs remain low, signaling no acute stress yet 📊 Markets Braced for NFP Caution Markets are wary ahead of this morning’s Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) release—currently projected at +115,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment—based on indications of labor-market cooling from weak ADP numbers 💵 Canadian Dollar Strengthens The loonie jumped 0.4% as investors adjust expectations for broader central-bank dovishness, driven by the weak U.S. jobs signals and optimism over a revived U.S.–Canada trade dialogue 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, July 3: 8:30 AM ET – Non‑Farm Payrolls (June): Forecast: +115,000; Previous: +139,000 (May). Watching for signs of sustained job-growth slowdown. 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.3%, up from 4.2% in May. A rise may increase odds of rate cuts. 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Forecast: +0.3%; prior: +0.4%. Cooling wages would ease inflation pressures. 8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: Track week-to-week stability or worsening of labor-market conditions. 9:45 AM ET – Services PMI (June, flash): Monitor for signs of slowing in U.S. service-sector activity. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June, flash): Forecast: 50.8. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in services. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #labor #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Is Japan's Economic Future at a Tariff Crossroads?The Nikkei 225, Japan's benchmark stock index, stands at a critical juncture, facing significant pressure from potential US tariffs of up to 35% on Japanese imports. This assertive stance by US President Donald Trump has already triggered a notable decline in Japanese equities, with the Nikkei 225 experiencing a 1.1% drop and the broader Topix Index falling 0.6% on Wednesday, marking consecutive days of losses. This immediate market reaction, characterized by a broad-based selloff across all sectors, underscores profound investor concern and a pre-emptive pricing-in of negative outcomes, particularly for the highly vulnerable automotive and agricultural sectors. The looming July 9 deadline for a trade agreement is pivotal, with President Trump explicitly stating his intention not to extend the current tariff pause. These proposed tariffs would far exceed previous rates, adding substantial financial burdens to industries already facing existing levies. Japan's economy, already struggling with a recent contraction in GDP and persistent declines in real wages, is particularly susceptible to such external shocks. This pre-existing economic fragility implies that the tariffs could amplify existing weaknesses, pushing the nation closer to recession and intensifying domestic discontent. Beyond immediate trade concerns, Washington appears to be leveraging the tariff threat to compel allies like Japan to increase military spending, aiming for 5% of GDP amidst rising geopolitical tensions. This demand strains the "ironclad" US-Japan military alliance, as evidenced by diplomatic setbacks and Japan's internal political challenges in meeting such ambitious defense targets. The unpredictable nature of US trade policy, coupled with these geopolitical undercurrents, creates a complex environment where Japan's economic stability and strategic autonomy are simultaneously challenged, necessitating significant strategic adjustments in its international relationships.
INDEX:NKYShort
by UDIS_View
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏭 U.S. Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure The ISM Manufacturing PMI for June rose slightly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May—still in contraction territory. Tariff-induced uncertainty and rising input costs continue to weigh on factory activity, with new orders still weak and employment contracting 📈 Global Factory Rebound Led by India & Europe While U.S. factories struggle, India hit a 14-month high in its manufacturing PMI at 58.4, and euro‑zone factory orders stabilized at 49.5—the first sign of recovery in over three years. Asia-Europe divergence may shift global capital flows . 🏦 Powell Says Tariffs Are Delaying Rate Cuts Fed Chair Powell warned at the ECB forum in Sintra that elevated inflation—driven in part by Trump-era tariffs—has postponed the timeline for U.S. rate cuts. The Fed’s dot-plot now indicates only two cuts for 2025, with markets adjusting accordingly 💵 Dollar Nears 3½-Year Lows The U.S. dollar weakened further, trading near a three-and-a-half-year low amid soft PMI data, a dovish Fed tilt, and renewed optimism over U.S.–Canada trade talks 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 2: (No major scheduled U.S. economic data) Market focus shifts to upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3, Powell's remarks, and trade-talk headlines. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #manufacturing #Fed #inflation #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
S&P 500 Outlook. Best Quarter Since 2023… But What Next?The S&P 500 just logged its best quarterly performance since Q4 2023 , surging on optimism around global trade negotiations and growing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting rates as early as September. US futures are green this morning, thanks to developments like Canada backing off digital taxes, ongoing dialogues with China ahead of the July 9 deadline, and risk-on sentiment is pushing yields and the dollar lower. But as traders, we need to ask: Are we witnessing a genuine economic inflection point? Or is this just a liquidity-driven rally that’s pricing in a best-case scenario? Technical View Support Zone: 6,150 was just broken through. And 6000, the round number level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and previous swing level. Resistance Levels: 6,235 is the next critical ceiling, a clean breakout could see price reach the extension level of 6,415. Momentum Indicators: RSI remains elevated and is creeping toward the overbought. While momentum is strong, watch out for the possible development of a divergence. Possible Scenarios The 'Soft Landing’ Is Now the Base Case Markets are trading as if the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. But that’s now fully priced in, and historically, the most dangerous trades are the ones everyone agrees on. If trade talks stall, inflation re-accelerates, or earnings disappoint, the reversal could be brutal and fast. Risk-on Sentiment Without Volume Is a Yellow Flag Despite the price strength, volume has been tapering off. The S&P’s recent leg up occurred on lighter-than-average participation, suggesting institutions may be watching, not chasing. That’s often the case in low-volatility summers, but it also implies that any negative catalyst could cause outsized downside moves. Macro-Fundamentals May Not Justify Valuation Expansion Yes, inflation is slowing, and the Fed might cut. But if they do, it’s likely because growth is weakening, not because the economy is roaring. So the very condition that triggers rate cuts could also cap earnings growth! Projection Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 6,280 could carry us toward 6,400–6,500 by mid-Q3, especially if the trade deals progress, July inflation comes in soft, and the Fed signals accommodation. Bearish Risk: If price fails to hold above 6,120, especially if trade optimism fades, or inflation growth spikes or Fed rhetoric shifts hawkish again, this could then open a quick pullback toward 6,000 or lower, which also aligns with the 50-day SMA. Key Events to Watch July 9 Trade Talks Deadline: Any sign of stalling could bring volatility back fast. June CPI Print (July 10): Crucial for confirming the Fed's next move. Earnings Season Kickoff (mid-July): Tech-heavy expectations may not be easy to beat after such a strong run. Conclusion A record-setting quarter is impressive but not necessarily predictive. This quarter’s rally has been built more on relief and expectations than hard data. When expectations (not earnings) are doing the heavy lifting, any misstep from central banks or geopolitics could unravel gains rapidly. A rate cut might be delayed, or inflation re-accelerates, or trade talks stall; any of these could leave equities hanging. Remember: the higher the climb without real earnings growth, the harder the fall when sentiment shifts. It's not just about the chart. It is about the narrative behind the price. What’s your bias for Q3? Are you buying this breakout or fading the optimism? Drop your thoughts below.
SP:SPX
by JinDao_Tai
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Core Inflation Edges Higher May’s core inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.6%, casting uncertainty over the Fed’s timeline for rate cuts. While headline CPI sits at 2.3%, the resilience in underlying prices complicates policymakers’ projections for later this year 💵 Weak Dollar, Rising Rate-Cut Bets Markets are reacting to “summertime data”—like the core CPI uptick—with renewed optimism. Traders now see up to 75 bps in Fed rate cuts later this year, while the dollar remains near 3½-year lows on concerns about Powell’s independence and trade developments 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Resume Trade talks between the U.S. and Canada restarted today, following Ottawa’s suspension of its digital-services tax. Progress toward a broader agreement could reduce tariff risk and offer further relief to risk assets 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 1: All Day – U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Markets will watch for updates on tariff resolution and broader trade deals. Any breakthrough could notably boost equities and improve trade sentiment. 10:00 AM ET – ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) A below-50 reading again would reinforce the narrative of industrial weakness. A rebound could support equities and temper recession concerns 10:00 AM ET – JOLTS Job Openings (May) Still at elevated levels (~7.39 million in April), this metric assesses labor-market resilience. A decline could shift rate-cut expectations. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC/USD Technical Analysis – Weekly Elliott Wave StructureIn this video, we analyze the weekly chart of Bitcoin ( BYBIT:BTCUSDT ) using Elliott Wave theory. The current structure suggests the beginning of a new bullish impulse (waves 0, 1, and 2) following a clearly completed and technically correct corrective phase. We explore potential impulsive scenarios starting from wave 2, using Fibonacci extensions to project possible targets and identifying key support zones and invalidation levels. This analysis aims to provide a macro perspective based on price action, helpful for traders and investors following BTC from a medium- to long-term technical view. 🛑 Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Each user is responsible for their own trading decisions.
Long
by Zky17
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause 💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks 🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures 🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks ⚠️ July Risks Loom The coming week will spotlight: July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3 Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 30 9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity 📅 Tuesday, July 1 U.S. markets open, watch trade developments 📅 Wednesday, July 2 Global PMI readings released 📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day) 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June) 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June) 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June) These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion: If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier? Answer (VX Algo System perspective): In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles: Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points. Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure). When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context. How to tell which prevails: Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal. Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail. Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift. Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DiYWALLST
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline. Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure. But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching. Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino. Here’s where things stand: - OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns) - BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos) - BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream) - CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex. Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 Global Markets Bet on Dovish Fed Pivot Markets are pricing in more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts—approximately 125 bps by end-2026—due to speculation that President Trump may replace Chair Powell with a dovish successor. Investors caution excessive political influence could jeopardize Fed independence 🏦 Fed Governor Warns of Tariff Risks Fed’s Michael Barr emphasized that tariffs could trigger inflation and unemployment, reinforcing the Fed’s wait‑and‑see approach. Expect modest rate cuts later this year, contingent on economic signals 📉 Q1 GDP Revised Sharply Lower First-quarter U.S. GDP was downgraded to an annualized contraction of 0.5%, a deeper fall than previously reported. The revision underscores drag from weak consumer spending and trade disruptions 📃 Trade Deficit Widens in May U.S. goods trade deficit expanded 11% to $96.6 billion, driven by a $9.7 billion drop in exports. Trade gap dynamics remain a headwind for growth projections 🐘 JPMorgan Sees Stagflation Risks JPMorgan revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to 1.3%, warning that tariff-related “stagflationary impulse” is complicating growth and inflation outlooks—and making recession risks more real 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, June 27: 8:30 AM ET – U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June (Prelim.) Expected to reflect growing economic caution. The index fell in May; traders will watch for further weakness. 10:00 AM ET – Fed Stress Test Results Fed to release annual bank stress-test outcomes. Strong results support financial stability, while weak spots could unsettle markets ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #macro #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam, Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June  26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 💱 Dollar Mounts Decline on Fed Credibility Concerns The U.S. dollar dropped to a 3½-year low against the euro after reports that President Trump is considering replacing Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. The move fueled market concern about the Fed’s independence and prompted traders to raise the likelihood of a July rate cut to 25%, with nearly 64 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end 📉 Markets Stay Cautious Ahead of Powell’s Testimony Traders remain on edge as Fed Chair Powell’s Capitol Hill testimony continues. He reiterated caution, noting inflation risks tied to tariffs despite growing calls for easing, keeping interest-rate expectations in limbo . 📈 S&P 500 Nears All-Time Highs in Second-Biggest Bi‑Monthly Rally The S&P 500 has notched its second-largest May–June rally on record (6.2% in May, further gains in June), bolstered by cooling inflation, easing Middle East tensions, and strong AI earnings momentum led by Nvidia. Bull-case scenarios could push the index to fresh highs 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, June 26: (No major U.S. economic release—markets are focused on Powell’s remaining testimony and global risk dynamics.) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #inflation #geopolitics #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Most see rejection. I see a launchpadWhat looks like a failed breakout is actually SOL setting up for a higher timeframe reversal, right at a refined zone of inefficiency and Smart Money interest. The narrative isn’t over — it’s just beginning. Technical Breakdown: Current Price: ~$143.30 Context: Price tagged the Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the daily and showed reaction — a sign of algorithmic awareness Volume profile suggests thin liquidity above, ripe for expansion if momentum kicks in Key Levels: FVG (1D) zone: just under current price (~140.19) Order Block (OB): ultimate demand zone near 137.23 — strong structural support Downtrend Line: recently broken, retest in motion Major Upside Target: 168.36 — a clean liquidity magnet Strategic Thesis: Price dipped into FVG but held above the OB — a classic Smart Money accumulation setup The dashed projection shows potential higher lows forming, giving fuel for a push through prior highs FVG + OB form the discount zone, where risk/reward is maximized before the next impulse move Execution Plan: Entry zone: $140.00–137.50 → Expect small shakeouts before confirmation Invalidation: Daily close below $136 kills the bullish case Target: Primary: $168.36 Stretch Goal: $172–176 if momentum is sustained into August
by SmartFlowsI
Everyone sees consolidation. I see positioningETH is holding just above a key fib cluster, showing signs of controlled distribution, not weakness. Smart Money doesn’t chase — they build positions while the crowd second-guesses. The Structure: Current Price: ~2,419 Local High (Premium): 2,482.09 Fib Retracements: 0.236 → 2,394.72 (mild correction) 0.382 → 2,340.68 (initial re-entry zone) 0.5 → 2,296.99 (ideal discount) 0.618 → 2,253.31 (deep entry, high confluence) 0.786 → 2,191.11 (structure last line) Key Zones: FVG already filled during the move up — imbalance mitigated Order block (OB) at 2,191.11: high-probability reaction zone Strategy Outlook: Scenario A (Shallow pullback): ETH tests 2,394 → 2,340, then continues the push to 2,482 → Aggressive buyers step in early Scenario B (Deeper sweep): A drop to 2,296 → 2,253 opens the door for reaccumulation → Classic Smart Money trap before the next rally Invalidation: A break below 2,191 (and OB failure) kills this bullish narrative Execution Logic: Accumulation Zones: Light: 2,340–2,296 Strong: 2,253–2,191 (discount reload) Target: 2,482 Extension optional if momentum builds above recent highs
by SmartFlowsI
Premium zone tagged — now we watch how the Smart Money reactsBitcoin just tapped into the 108,151 level — the top of a measured premium range and a likely area where profit-taking begins and fresh distribution footprints form. This run-up wasn’t random. Price surged from inefficiency, cleanly filled the fair value gap (FVG), and is now flirting with a key liquidity pocket. Here's what the structure says: Premium reached: 108,151 (0% fib) If rejection holds, Smart Money looks to discount entries: 0.236: 106,136 0.382: 104,889 0.5: 103,882 Deep retracement zone: 0.618 at 102,874 Final defense for bulls? The unmitigated FVG block between 101,440 → 99,613 Possible Playbook Scenarios: Quick retrace → higher high: Bounce off 104,889 or 103,882 before attacking 108,967+ Deeper sweep: Into 102,874 (0.618) before Smart Money steps in again Invalidation: Break below 99,613 closes this bullish narrative and confirms a structural break TL;DR Execution Logic: Wait for retracement into 0.5–0.618 fibs Look for bullish reaction (engulfing or SFP) Upside targets: 108,151 (retest) 108,967 (liquidity sweep) Further upside if momentum sustains
by SmartFlowsI
UNEXPECTED RISK CRASH FREE FALL AFTER TREND DATA FOR TH NEXT 48HDepending on our study, BTC has a high chance of a new crash below 100K. The next 48 hours are important for the trend change of BTC, which can allow the trend to free-fall below 100K BTC is at a top, and it did recovery always recovered on the M volume top., We are now again on the same trend. BTC can return below 100K as this update shows, with the possibility of targeting the main target 85K - This is the trend zone for new interest. The reason for this crash is that BTC has not confirmed the cycle, which means the end of the cycle. There is always possibility that the market can act green, but we expect it can show an unexpected breakdown.
Short
by SatochiTrader
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