Market
MARKETFollowing last week's analysis of 4 important indices in the markets, as we can see in the daily chart of these indices, in the last two days of the last week, gold, which had lost its support, is pulling back to it, but the American stock indices have their key daily supports with The members of the Federal Reserve paid attention to the contractionary talks, and most interestingly, Bitcoin did not have a strong seller, and apparently, risk aversion in crypto is less than that of reliable assets such as gold and stocks, which is probably the reason for the decentralized nature of this asset compared to others. .
However, the reopening of the markets in this trading week is very vital and it should be seen that Bitcoin and consequently the crypto market can be supported against other assets or it will lose daily support following them and in order to confirm the weekly analysis. And monthly, which has not yet received a return signal, will continue to fall to the lower areas.
Total Double BottomThe total market cap has double bottomed on the daily reflecting a possible change in long term trend. Currently the index is within a falling wedge and will probably breakout upward.
The RSI paints heavy bullish divergence and is uptrending.
Upward break of falling wedge will raise the market cap to 1.05 trillion.
Arrows indicate possible target if bull trend is maintained.
A real double bottom will bring the index to 2 trillion, the same level as the start of April. The price of BTC at the start of April was 48.5k.
S&P Monthly Chart Breakdown 🐻The S&P 500 index has seen a decline of over 20% now officially stating a Bear-Market over the widely followed indices.
Today we are diving specifically in to the Monthly Chart for some Technicals Breakdown on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
The Monthly Momentum in this case we're using TTM_Squeeze (similar to MACD etc.) is signaling a flip to bearish momentum on the Monthly Time Frame. This is signifying possibly a big move down in the coming months, to continue the trend of the Bearish Momentum.
Last time we saw a real momentum switch with the TTM_SQUEEZE on the MONTHLY Chart was back in the 2008 Financial Crisis. Both scenarios are different in fundamentals, but even Technicals... SO I will not dive in to comparing the two much, as we were not as overbought then as we are now, and we have sold off already more now compared to when the monthly momentum switched then.
Nonetheless, this is not a good sign in the mid-long term of the Stock Market.
Technicals are showing months of decline, though this could include some dead-cat bounces, and bear-market relief rallies, we are starting to see a shift down in the markets.
Bond Yields Rising, Dollar Soaring, Interest Rates Rising, Home Prices Dropping, and Inflation still on the move... Currently there is not much to look forward to on this current Economy until it sorts out of course.
The bottom may be sooner than many think, or later. This idea was just to put this monthly timeframe in mind for your investing.
Thesis : Market may suffer for few more months to come, but nothing is sure and fundamentals could switch sharply & swiftly with lower CPI numbers, and a more Dovish Fed. This may take a while, or not... Averaging in on investments in a Bear Market is never a bad idea in my opinion.
📌 BITCOIN - Make or Break! Are You Ready?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
BTC has been stuck inside a range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle (in red)
Bitcoin has to make a decision soon! Especially with US500 also sitting around a support zone.
📌 Bullish Scenario: (Right Chart)
For the bulls to take over, we need a break above the symmetrical triangle AND the 20k level upward.
📌 Bearish Scenario: (Left Chart)
For the bears to remain in control, we need a break below the symmetrical triangle AND the 18k level downward.
🥇 * As you noticed, a break below or above the symmetrical triangle would only be an early alert to prepare for the real break. and might result in a fake breakout.
So for extra confirmation, I am waiting for a break above 20k or below 18k
🥈 ** By break, I mean a Momentum Daily Candle Close.
🥉 *** I know many of you would criticize my analysis: " oh it can either go up or down " right but you forgot the "IF" statement.
As a conservative trader, that's my style, and it is working for me. I don't predict, I react.
It can go up or down, but I am only in looking for longs above 20k and shorts below 18k. for now, I wait :)
As traders, we only take action 10% of the time. the other 90% would be waiting and waiting.
1- wait for the asset to approach a certain rejection zone
2- then wait for a setup to form
3- then wait for the break / trigger
4- then wait for the result
Which scenario do you think is more probable and why?
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Just freedom do matter right now, but EURUSD is consolidating! I apologize to all who were expecting just a financial analysis.
EURUSD may consolidate between two zones, LONG positions is suggested over the red zone and SHORT ones under the green zone.
Taking advantage of ranging markets is possible in LTF.
Internet is not reliable in Iran, I'm not sure if I even post in near future again.
Also, I can't be in office and checking markets while my compatriots are being killed on streets! If your news sources telling you this is a protest against "morality police", they are right but they are not telling you all the story. This is even more than a revolution, This is a war for women rights, basic human rights, freedom and democracy.
one another point.
3 years ago, IRGC and other criminals in uniform killed at least 1500 Iranian who were just defending their basic rights with bare hands. Every day the world forgets more than yesterday what goes us through our peaceful protests. This is a war against a dangerous dictator who support terrorism. World recognized neither ISIS nor the Taliban but the IR president who have ordered execution of thousands in his 20s, did give a speech in UN! He is not our president.
DO some thing for IRAN.
U.S. markets up from here? Percent of stocks >200ma is rising.The vertical lines match $SPX lows with times when only 15-20% of stocks traded over their 200ma. The light blue line is a 10-week moving average and you can see that once it turns up it keeps rising (2008-09 was an exception). According to this broad market indicator, stocks have been performing better since early July.
This is a big picture view, not to be used for short term trading. This index is a useful way to evaluate overall market condition, especially for active investing decisions.
Considering this index is closer to 20 than to 50, it is possible that even if stocks are broadly sold again, there will soon enough be a substantial rise in stock prices. The exception to all of this - if "this time is different" is true. If all the Covid-induced money printing has damaged the system so much that worse extremes will be needed to make amends, then the usual historical patterns may all go out the window.
BTC Possible bounce at fib level then C wave to 23kBTC can now touch the fib levels below and then bounce to the upside, if the fib levels don't hold, then price may again retest our support down at 19k-18k region, which would be a sign of weakness and the trend may continue to the downside, entering the 17k-16k area. Main targets are 15k-14k, but not excluding even further possible downside to around 10k region which has a slightly lower likelyhood.
Bitcoin Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 68Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
68 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich