Why Did I Lose XAUUSD During NFP Time .... Waiting for a Miracle
Why Did I Lose XAUUSD During NFP Time 😢 While I Was Waiting for a Miracle 😉… and Everyone Else Cashed In? 🤑
Alright, champ. Let’s break down why you lost your short trade around $3,348 per ounce, while the whole world seemed to be printing money. This one’s for the smartest and slickest trader on Egyptian soil—but explained like someone who actually understands market behavior, not someone blindly quoting a textbook. Grab a pen and paper. Let’s dig in.
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🔥 Part 1: “You Faced NFP Like You’re Superman”
❌ What Happened:
• Price shot up hard after the NFP release.
• You said, “That’s too much—it must come down.”
• You went short from the top (around 3,305).
😵💫 Where You Went Wrong:
• NFP isn’t just any move—it’s nuclear fuel for the market.
• The move that follows it is usually an impulse wave—it continues, it doesn’t pull back.
• The market doesn’t drop just because it went up a lot. It drops when:
• Volume dries up.
• Buyers get bored.
• You spot negative delta or divergence.
⚠️ None of that was present when you shorted.
✅ The Smarter Mindset:
“During major news events like NFP, the market doesn’t pull back—it follows through.”
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🔥 Part 2: “Volume Was Screaming in Your Face: I’m Not Done Yet!”
📊 What You Saw:
• Positive delta.
• Increasing volume.
• Big lot sizes hitting the ask side.
❌ What You Ignored:
• No divergence between effort and result.
• Buyers were still strong—no weakness.
• Price wasn’t reacting to resistance; it was smashing through it.
💡 Big Difference Between:
• Absorption = buyers easing the price up slowly.
• Rejection = buyers failing and price slapping back.
You mistook absorption for rejection—classic rookie mistake.
✅ The Real Lesson:
“As long as volume is pushing price, stick with the trend.”
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🔥 Part 3: “You Misused Fibonacci Like a Hammer on a Screw”
❌ What You Did:
• You shorted at the 125%-150% Fibonacci extensions.
• You said, “Price must reverse here.”
📏 What You Should’ve Known:
These levels (138.2%, 150%, 161.8%, 200%) are not sell zones.
They are target zones for buyers, not resistance levels.
✅ The Correct Use:
• Use 125% or 138.2% as breakout buy zones.
• Take profit at 161.8% or 200%.
These are where bulls take profits—not where you blindly short just because “it went up a lot.”
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🎯 Why You Can’t Just Sell There:
Because those zones are:
• Where buying continues.
• Not where it stops—unless momentum fades.
That only happens when:
• Volume drops.
• Delta turns negative.
• Rejection wicks appear.
But what did you do?
You shorted into momentum—while buying was on fire—thinking, “It must stop here!”
⚠️ Nope, bro. That train was still moving—you just stepped in front of it.
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🔥 Part 4: “You Forgot Market Psychology”
🤔 What That Means:
• After NFP:
• Smart money enters early.
• Retail traders wait and watch.
• When price breaks up, retail chases → market moves more.
• Smart money sells into their faces and takes profit.
❌ Your Mistake:
• You tried to be clever and beat the market.
• You didn’t ask:
• Who’s on the market’s side?
• Who’s chasing?
• What will the crowd do next?
When retail feels FOMO, they chase → and that’s what drives continuation.
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🧠 Pro Playbook for NFP-Driven Impulse Moves
✅ Ideal NFP Trade Setup:
1. News release: NFP
2. Price action: Big breakout from range.
3. Confirmation:
• Increasing volume
• Positive delta
• No rejection wicks
4. Entry: Buy Stop above 125% or 138.2%
5. Stop Loss: Below the breakout candle
6. Targets:
• TP1: 161.8%
• TP2: 200%
Now that’s how you use Fibonacci properly, not like people randomly dragging lines around.
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🎯 Where to Draw the Fib Levels From?
✅ The Rule:
From the start of the explosive move to the first clear top right after the news.
🧨 For NFP:
• From: the low of the NFP candle (or the first strong move after the news).
• To: the first visible high with:
• A pause in upward momentum
• A doji candle
• Rejection wick
• Or minor resistance before the move continues
Example:
• Low: around 3,291.50
• Temporary high: around 3,316.00
Draw your Fib from:
• Bottom = 3,291.50
• Top = 3,316.00
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✳️ How to Use the Levels After That:
• 100% = Move ends at the high
• 125% = First extension
• 138.2% = Real ignition point
• 161.8% = Golden target
• 200% = Full wave target
💡 Why Use Buy Stops Above 125%-138.2%?
Because:
• Price breaks above previous highs (lots of traders sell there).
• It creates fake sell traps.
• You enter after the stop-hunt, when the market wipes out sellers and goes higher.
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🔥 How That Looks in Practice:
1. Draw Fib from the start of the NFP impulse move.
2. Wait for price to reach 125% or 138.2%.
3. Place a Buy Stop just above that.
4. Aim for 161.8% or 200% as targets.
