Mid-Week Outlook Update: US CPI- Trade TalksCPI day today. Scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM CT.
CME:6E1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1!
ES futures edged slightly higher after positive commentary from US-China trade talks. The delegations from both sides agreed on a framework to move forward with negotiations.
It is important to note that Trade War 1.0 took about two years to formalize and finalize. However, given the previous experience and the current agreement on the framework, our opinion (which is not the consensus) is that the trade deal between China and the US may be closer than what most analysts and investors might otherwise predict.
Like any negotiations, China and the US have previously discussed these difficult issues and have found a way to resolve them. Although the concerns have shifted towards niche sectors, we still view baseline tariffs with some sectors seeing increased tariffs as likely.
TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) acronym traders will see a tougher stance from Trump to resolve the overarching trade deficit issue with China, particularly the dumping of Chinese goods.
AI, defense technology, chips, and rare earth minerals are at the center of these discussions. There will be targeted controls on exports of chips from the US and exports of rare earth minerals on the Chinese side, despite the current framework and deals agreed. In our view, these controls will be phased out until agreements are finalized, to maintain leverage and show TACO acronym backers that Trump is not “chickening out,” but rather maintaining a strong stance while negotiating trade deals with China and other countries.
In our analysis, despite positive headlines, the overhanging uncertainty has not dissipated. In fact, there is clarity that President Trump is willing to take the difficult road to negotiate from an apparent position of strength. Would this result in extension of trade deadlines or temporary increase in tariffs followed by an extension of deadlines? This remains to be seen!
If May CPI comes in lower than expectations, this will be a nudge in the direction that tariffs are not translating into higher inflation. We may see a rally in index futures.
On the contrary, any increase in CPI above the previous 2.3% YoY increase will be seen as tariff-induced inflation.
In our analysis, given lower energy prices, rent inflation stabilizing at levels last seen in late 2021, and services inflation in the US trending lower from the peak in January 2023, we are seeing embedded inflation in the prior two months and this may remain sticky in today’s release. However, any stability with lower energy prices seen in the prior month will point to a lower inflation print overall.
Comment with your favorite trade idea from our past trade ideas and what you would like to see more of.
