Gold on the edge: Will 3,270 break as Fed pressure builds?Hello traders, what’s your view on XAUUSD?
Yesterday, gold remained under pressure as a series of fresh U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, and gold came under renewed selling pressure. Currently, XAUUSD is trading around 3,288 USD, down 0.04% on the day.
From a technical standpoint, gold is clearly trading within a well-defined downward-sloping channel, confirming the dominance of bearish momentum. Moreover, both the EMA34 and EMA89 are acting as dynamic resistance levels, repeatedly rejecting any short-term recovery attempts—highlighting the strength of the current downtrend.
If a pullback occurs before the next leg lower, the confluence of resistance and the EMA zone will be crucial to watch. It could offer ideal conditions for potential short setups in line with the trend.
Looking ahead, the next key support lies at 3,270 USD. A break below this level could open the door for a deeper move toward the 32XX area.
What do you think? Will gold continue to drop further?
Good luck and trade safe!
Metals
Potential bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 3,306.31
1st Support: 3,239.07
1st Resistance: 3,357.09
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The rebound is weak, short orders intervene#XAUUSD
After two consecutive trading days of volatility, gold finally began to fall under pressure near 3335. After breaking through the 3300 mark, the price of gold accelerated its decline, reaching a low of around 3268, and yesterday's daily line closed with a large negative line. 📊
Today's rebound is more likely to be based on the buffering performance of the impact of news. The ATR data also shows that the bullish momentum is slowly weakening in the short term. 🐻After digesting the impact of yesterday's news through rebound during the day, it may fall again in the future.📉
📎The primary focus today is 3305 above, which was also the high point of yesterday's pullback correction. If the gold price rebounds to 3305-3320 and encounters resistance and pressure,📉 you can consider shorting and look towards 3290-3270.🎯
If the short-term gold rebound momentum is strong and breaks through the 3305-3320 resistance area, it will be necessary to stop loss in time. Gold may be expected to touch yesterday's high resistance of 3330-3335, which is the second point to consider shorting during the day.💡
🚀 SELL 3305-3320
🚀 TP 3290-3270
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 1, 2025
Yesterday's trading session, gold prices recovered to the 3315 area and then continued to decrease to the 3281 area. Currently, gold prices are fluctuating quite unpredictably due to the impact of tariff news and investor confidence.
Basic news: The Federal Reserve FED continues to maintain the federal funds benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with policy since 2025. Chairman Powell did not give any signal about the next interest rate cut on September 16 - 17.
Technical analysis: After falling sharply to the 3269 area, gold prices are showing signs of recovery. In the current downtrend channel, there has been a higher bottom than the bottom at H1. We can see that if the bullish pattern at H1 is confirmed, combined with the reversal candlestick appearing at H4, the possibility of gold bouncing back to reach the resistance area of 3330, even 3350 is completely possible. In the weekend trading session, we will wait at the support zones to trade.
Important price zones today: 3280 - 3285 and 3269 - 3274.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3283 - 3285
SL 3280
TP 3288 - 3300 - 3310 - 3330.
Plan 2: BUY XAUSD zone 3269 - 3271
SL 3266
TP 3274 - 3284 - 3300 - 3320.
Wish you a safe, favorable and profitable trading day.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
Gold price analysis July 31XAUUSD – Bearish pressure still prevails, watch for SELL in the direction of the trend
Yesterday's session witnessed a strong decline when the D1 candle closed with selling pressure up to 60 prices, forming a key candle that shapes the trend. When the market forms a main candle, the 25% and 50% candle body areas are often important price areas to continue trading in the direction of the main trend.
In the current context, the priority strategy will be to sell in the direction of the downtrend when the price rebounds to the resistance areas and there is a rejection signal.
🔹 Important resistance areas:
3301 – 3312 – 3333
🔸 Target support areas:
3285 – 3270 – 3250
🎯 Trading strategy:
Prioritize SELLing at the resistance area of 3301–3312 when there is a price reaction (rejection).
Target: 3250
BUY only considered when 3313 area is broken decisively.
Staying disciplined and sticking to the reaction price zone will be key in the context of the market moving in a clear trend.
Gold consolidates near key support – What's next for?1. Market Overview
On the 15-minute chart, XAUUSD is trading around 3,290–3,292 USD, hovering just above a critical intraday support zone at 3,287–3,289 USD (highlighted in blue). This area has repeatedly provided a bounce in recent sessions, indicating persistent buying interest.
The current price action reflects sideways movement within a narrow range (3,287–3,296 USD), and notably, declining volatility, as shown by reduced candle range and trading volume.
2. Technical Breakdown
EMA: Price is moving around the EMA20 and EMA50, reflecting indecision and lack of directional momentum.
RSI (inferred): Likely hovering near the neutral 50–55 zone, confirming a balanced market.
Trendline: A descending series of lower highs from the 3,312 peak suggests bearish pressure, though buyers still defend key support.
Fibonacci: The 3,287 USD zone aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, reinforcing its strength as a bounce area.
3. Key Levels to Watch
3,287–3,289: Support - Repeated reactions here – key demand zone
3,296: Immediate resistance - Needs breakout to confirm bullish move
3,302: Next resistance - Breakout target – short-term top
3,275: Deeper support - Retest level if support breaks
4. Trading Strategy Scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 – Long setup at support
Entry: 3,287–3,289 (wait for bullish reaction like pin bar or engulfing)
Stop Loss: Below 3,284
TP1: 3,296 | TP2: 3,302
🔹 Scenario 2 – Short setup on breakdown
Entry: Below 3,284 (after clear bearish candle close)
Stop Loss: 3,288
TP1: 3,275 | TP2: 3,268
5. Conclusion
Gold is in a tug-of-war at a sensitive support zone. Whether bulls defend or bears break below will set the tone for the rest of the session. Focus on price reaction around 3,287 to determine direction – avoid blind predictions.
Make sure to follow for more live strategies as the New York session unfolds – and save this post if you find it helpful!
What’s your view on this support zone? Let’s discuss below!
Gold: final pullback or bull trap?On the 1H chart, gold (GOLD) is forming a bullish flag after a sharp decline, which may just be a corrective move within a broader downtrend. The price is now approaching the key resistance zone around $3313–$3317 - this area holds the POC, broken trendline, and the 0.705–0.79 Fibonacci retracement from the last drop. This is the decision-making zone.
If bulls fail to push above it, we expect a move down toward $3268 - the next strong support and potential buy zone, also confirmed by Fibonacci and local demand. Stochastic divergence and slowing volume suggest a possible rebound from that level. However, if the price breaks and holds above $3317, this would indicate a local trend reversal, with targets at $3333 and $3374.
Watch the $3317 zone closely - bulls have yet to prove this is more than just a bounce.
Gold (XAU/USD) 30-Min Chart Analysis – August 1, 2025Structure Summary:
CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed after price broke the previous lower high, signaling a potential trend reversal.
Price has since formed a bullish falling wedge (blue trendlines), a classic continuation pattern after CHoCH.
Volume spikes during reversal attempts suggest accumulation.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Breakout above wedge resistance.
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low near 3280 area (red zone).
Target: Around 3315–3320 zone (blue box), aligned with previous demand-turned-supply area.
📌 Outlook:
Bullish breakout expected if momentum sustains.
Watch for confirmation candle with volume above the wedge.
Clean R:R setup with tight SL and wide TP potential.
📊 Technical Bias: Bullish
❗Risk Management: Adjust position size based on lot exposure and account size.
Gold Daily Bias – Bulls Have the Ball, But Watch the TrapGold Daily Chart – August Outlook
Bias is still bullish for August.
Price is holding well above the big 3M FVG ($2,900–$3,100).
Strong bounce from Weekly Low ($3,331) heading toward Weekly High ($3,416).
Above $3,416 we’ve got $3,451 (M-H) and ATH ($3,508) as liquidity targets .
Seasonal tailwinds could help push us higher into Q4.
Blind spots to watch:
Still range-bound between $3,330–$3,450 for months — no clean break yet.
Unfilled FVG near $3,210 could be a draw if we reject from resistance.
August liquidity is thin — spikes can reverse fast.
Triple-top risk if we reject near $3,450 again.
Game plan:
Bullish if we get a daily close above $3,416 (confirmation) and ideally above $3,451 to aim for ATH.
If breakout fails, I’ll target range play back toward $3,290–$3,210.
Bias = bullish, but I’m staying nimble.
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 37.036 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 36.788..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 3,363.50 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3,383.45 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Silver The Week AheadKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 3756
Resistance Level 2: 3855
Resistance Level 3: 3915
Support Level 1: 3600
Support Level 2: 3544
Support Level 3: 3480
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SILVER WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅SILVER is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 37,60$
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 36,69$
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,353.10 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,335.20..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Possible Gold Reaction Scenarios to Today's Jobs ReportMarket expectations for today's nonfarm payrolls change to be 104k, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. The divergence between payroll growth and the unemployment rate is mainly due to the birth-death model used in payroll calculations and expectations for either a halt or rebound in the labor force participation rate.
Fed Chair Powell recently stated that the "main number to watch" is the unemployment rate, which raises its importance in today’s data release. If the participation rate rises sharply, the unemployment rate could even increase to 4.3%, which may put a cap on the recent rally in the dollar index.
There is also a risk that a very strong payrolls number could be released alongside a rise in the unemployment rate. This combination may trigger a volatile and uncertain market reaction with multiple direction changes.
In similar past scenarios, markets typically reacted first to the payrolls data, then shifted focus to the unemployment rate shortly after.
For gold, look for 3310 and 3288 as pivot levels that could open the door to 3342 on the bullish case and 3270 on the bearish case.
Nonfarm Pay Attention Zone✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD is recovering and increasing towards the resistance zone of yesterday's US session. The 3315 zone is considered a strategic zone for Nonfarm today. A sweep up and then collapse to the liquidity zone of 3250 will be scenario 1 for Nonfarm today. If this important price zone is broken, we will not implement SELL strategies but wait for retests to BUY. It is very possible that when breaking 3315, it will create a DOW wave with the continuation of wave 3 when breaking the peak of wave 1.
📉 Key Levels
SELL trigger: Reject resistance 3315.
Target 3250
BUY Trigger: Break out and retest resistance 3315
Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
Gold Price Consolidates in Symmetrical Triangle, Breakout Ahead?Gold shows a clear bearish trend within a well-defined downward channel. Price action continues to form lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the ongoing downtrend. The recent rejection from $3,312 suggests that bulls are struggling to regain control, and the market remains pressured by selling momentum. The price is currently hovering near $3,287 just above horizontal support zone.
📉 Potential Scenarios
- Bearish Continuation (Most Likely)
- If price continues to stay below $3,300 and breaks below $3,281, it may aim for $3,261 and $3,249.
- A close below $3,281 would confirm further bearish pressure and signal downside continuation toward the $3,240s range.
- Short-Term Bullish Retracement
- If price holds above $3,281 and breaks above $3,300–$3,312, a relief rally may occur at first resistance: $3,306 and second resistance: $3,312.
- However, unless gold breaks above $3,332 (previous swing high), this would still be considered a bear market rally.
- Range-bound Movement
- A third scenario is sideways price action between $3,281 and $3,312, where neither bulls nor bears take control immediately. This would represent market indecision or awaiting external catalysts (e.g., economic data, Fed policy).
🔍 Trend Outlook
- Short-Term Trend: Bearish
- Medium-Term Trend: Bearish, unless price breaks and sustains above $3,312
- Long-Term Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, as long as price holds above the macro support zone near $3,240
1D Chart Long Term Possible Scenario
The price is currently trading around $3,285, sitting just above the triangle’s ascending trendline support and within a key horizontal demand zone around $3,250–$3,300, which has held multiple times in the past.
If bulls manage to push the price above $3,360–$3,400, it could confirm a breakout and open the door toward the next major resistance at $3,450. However, if price fails to hold above the current ascending trendline, a breakdown could retest the base support near $3,248 or even lower toward $3,150
Gold is currently in a neutral consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle, with both bullish and bearish breakout scenarios possible. The breakout direction from this pattern—expected in the coming weeks, will likely set the tone for gold's medium-term trend.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
renderwithme ||| XAU/USD Monthly Analysis (August 2025 Outlook) #Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Based on recent data:Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25–4.50% in July 2025, with a hawkish tilt, has strengthened the US dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. A stronger USD typically reduces gold’s appeal as it’s priced in dollars. However, expectations of a potential rate cut in September could support gold if signaled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Watch for updates in the FOMC statement or Powell’s comments for clues on future policy.
#Economic Indicators:
Strong US economic data, such as a robust labor market (jobless claims at a 3-month low) and rising consumer confidence (Conference Board’s Index at 97.2 in July), suggest increased economic activity, which could bolster the USD and limit gold’s upside. Upcoming data like the US PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in early August will be critical for gauging inflation and labor market trends, impacting gold’s trajectory.
Geopolitical and Safe-Haven Demand: Reduced safe-haven demand due to de-escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical stability has capped gold’s gains. However, any escalation in conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine or Middle East) or renewed trade disputes could drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Central Bank Demand: Continued central bank gold purchases could provide long-term support, but a slowdown in buying might weigh on prices.
# Inflation and Currency Dynamics:
Persistent US inflation supports the USD, limiting gold’s attractiveness. Conversely, a recovering Chinese economy or global policy easing could boost gold demand.
#Technical Analysis
Recent technical data suggests a mixed outlook for XAU/USD on the monthly timeframe:Price Levels and Trends: As of late July 2025, XAU/USD is trading around $3,291–$3,337, consolidating after retreating from a high of $3,440. The monthly chart shows a medium-term uptrend channel that began in early 2025, with support around $3,285–$3,300 and resistance at $3,355–$3,430. A decisive break above $3,355 could signal bullish momentum toward $3,500 or higher, while a break below $3,285 might target $3,130 or lower.
Indicators: The 14-day RSI at 46.10 suggests neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with 15 bearish and 11 bullish signals as of July 28, 2025, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
Key Levels: Support: $3,275–$3,225 (major demand zone), $3,130 (potential deeper pullback).
Resistance: $3,355, $3,430, $3,500 (psychological level).
A bearish descending channel on shorter timeframes (e.g., 1H, 3H) suggests potential downside unless $3,320 is breached.
Monthly ForecastBearish Scenario: If the USD remains strong due to hawkish Fed signals, persistent inflation, or robust US economic data, XAU/USD could test support at $3,275–$3,225. A break below this zone might lead to $3,130 or even $2,900 in a deeper correction, especially if safe-haven demand weakens further.
Bullish Scenario: A Fed signal of rate cuts, renewed geopolitical tensions, or increased central bank buying could push gold above $3,355, targeting $3,430 or $3,500. A breakout above $3,430 could aim for $3,830, as suggested by some analysts.
Expected Range: For August 2025, XAU/USD is likely to trade between $3,225 and $3,430, with volatility driven by US economic data and Fed policy updates. A monthly close above $3,430 would strengthen the bullish case, while a close below $3,225 would favor bears.
Trading ConsiderationsRisk Management: Given the mixed signals, use tight stop-losses. For bullish trades, consider entries near $3,275–$3,300 with stops below $3,225. For bearish trades, enter near $3,320 with stops above $3,355.
Key Events to Watch: Monitor the US PCE Price Index, NFP report, and Fed statements in early August for directional cues. Geopolitical developments could also trigger sudden moves.
Volatility: The 30-day volatility is low at 0.91%, suggesting consolidation, but upcoming data releases could spark sharper moves.
# Chart for the reference will give u better idea to take decisions
in my views top has been made
~~ Disclaimer ~~
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational \ educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
# Boost and comment will be highly appreciated.
Close out the Week STRONGLooks like price has found its bottom and is ready to push from here. We are looking for a strong forceful break out from this zone so we can go for the higher levels. Everything looks right from here and value keeps shifting up. I know we should get a solid entry but waiting for it to line up with time.
Gold Next Move (Read description). Hello, Traders.
As you saw we have achieved our target at last ideas.
This week gold is running in down trend, today it has touched the price 3268 and then gold pumped.
As you see guys, gold has breakout the last support area and its support became resistance.
Gold has changed the character according to H1 and there is break of structure (BOS).
The trend is bearish, so gold needs to fall, it can fall till 3351.
Comment positive feedbacks, Thanks.