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MNQ1!

Potential Head and Shoulders PatternHow to identify head and shoulders patterns? We’ll use the current example from the Nasdaq or the US markets. We can quite clearly observe that a potential head and shoulders formation is developing. This means that if the price breaks below the neckline, we may see a deeper correction from the April low. I will go through the rules on how to identify a head and shoulders formation. We will also cover how to recognize when the pattern is invalid — meaning the market may continue pushing above its all-time high. Finally, we’ll discuss how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Let’s first go through the rules of identifying head and shoulders with rules stated. Next, how to recognize when the pattern is invalid, the market continues pushing above its all-time high. The key is in the closing price above the all-time high. Lastly, how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Of course, we can wait for the break to come as a confirmation, but usually I would like to be a little more active than being passive. So this is just for your reference. It may not be for everyone. This is where I always get into its micro view by first acknowledging where is the macro is, which we had just discussed. Please refer to the following video: So what do you think that the market likely or unlikely to fulfill this head and shoulders set-up? I’d like to hear your thoughts on this. Micro Nikkei Futures Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
Mid-Week Outlook Update: US CPI- Trade TalksCPI day today. Scheduled to be released at 7:30 AM CT. CME:6E1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! COMEX:GC1! CBOT:ZN1! ES futures edged slightly higher after positive commentary from US-China trade talks. The delegations from both sides agreed on a framework to move forward with negotiations. It is important to note that Trade War 1.0 took about two years to formalize and finalize. However, given the previous experience and the current agreement on the framework, our opinion (which is not the consensus) is that the trade deal between China and the US may be closer than what most analysts and investors might otherwise predict. Like any negotiations, China and the US have previously discussed these difficult issues and have found a way to resolve them. Although the concerns have shifted towards niche sectors, we still view baseline tariffs with some sectors seeing increased tariffs as likely. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) acronym traders will see a tougher stance from Trump to resolve the overarching trade deficit issue with China, particularly the dumping of Chinese goods. AI, defense technology, chips, and rare earth minerals are at the center of these discussions. There will be targeted controls on exports of chips from the US and exports of rare earth minerals on the Chinese side, despite the current framework and deals agreed. In our view, these controls will be phased out until agreements are finalized, to maintain leverage and show TACO acronym backers that Trump is not “chickening out,” but rather maintaining a strong stance while negotiating trade deals with China and other countries. In our analysis, despite positive headlines, the overhanging uncertainty has not dissipated. In fact, there is clarity that President Trump is willing to take the difficult road to negotiate from an apparent position of strength. Would this result in extension of trade deadlines or temporary increase in tariffs followed by an extension of deadlines? This remains to be seen! If May CPI comes in lower than expectations, this will be a nudge in the direction that tariffs are not translating into higher inflation. We may see a rally in index futures. On the contrary, any increase in CPI above the previous 2.3% YoY increase will be seen as tariff-induced inflation. In our analysis, given lower energy prices, rent inflation stabilizing at levels last seen in late 2021, and services inflation in the US trending lower from the peak in January 2023, we are seeing embedded inflation in the prior two months and this may remain sticky in today’s release. However, any stability with lower energy prices seen in the prior month will point to a lower inflation print overall. Comment with your favorite trade idea from our past trade ideas and what you would like to see more of.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by EdgeClear
ES Trade Idea and Upcoming NFP ReportCME_MINI:ES1! • What has the market done? ES futures are lagging compared to tech heavy index NQ futures. ES futures are still below yearly open. Yearly open has been a strong area of resistance since the rally of April 6th Lows in futures complex. • What is it trying to do? ES futures are in consolidation mode, building value higher. VPOC has shifted higher since the gap up from May 11th open. VPOC and 0.786 fib level provide a base for a continuation higher. • How good of a job is it doing? Markets seem to be slowing its rally. After such a strong rebound, participants are wary of any pull-backs. Although a strong trend higher, consolidation or a pullback is not illogical at these levels. • What is more likely to happen from here? o Scenario 1: Hold steady and NFP provides needed boost for markets to get across yearly open resistance and climb higher. o Scenario 2: A mixed NFP report may point towards further consolidation. Key level 5873 as support on move lower before reverting higher. o Scenario 3: A hawkish NFP report that signals higher for longer rates, may be interpreted by market participants as less monetary stimulus and dwindling rate cut bets for this year. We anticipate a sell-off towards 0.618 fib level in this scenario, moving to the lower edge of micro composite volume profile. In all the above scenarios, there is a clear LIS at yearly open. Other key levels are defined cleanly on the higher time frame. Important thing for traders to note here is to trade what you see and not what you think. Having an alignment between fundamentals and technicals is sound but the markets do what they do, and price moves where it should. Painting narrative to any move may sound fancy but it gets less important at intraday time frames in our opinion. Hence why we view all this considering auction markets and volume profile. Glossary: ES - emini-S&P 500 Futures NQ - emini-NASDAQ 100 Futures VPOC - Volume Point of Control: The most traded price by volume in a given range. Represents acceptance or consensus NFP - Non-Farm Payroll: Released by the US Department of Labor around the 1st Friday of every month. It reports on Unemployment, Productivity and other key metrics. Key economic release LIS - Line In the Sand: A key zone that might tip buyers or sellers to act to cover risk and might change the overall bias of our analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
How to Identify Head and Shoulders?How to identify head and shoulders patterns? We’ll use the current example from the Nasdaq or the US markets. We can quite clearly observe that a potential head and shoulders formation is developing. This means that if the price breaks below the neckline, we may see a deeper correction from the April low. I will go through the rules on how to identify a head and shoulders formation. We will also cover how to recognize when the pattern is invalid — meaning the market may continue pushing above its all-time high. Finally, we’ll discuss how we can position ourselves early, before waiting for a break below the neckline for confirmation. Micro Nikkei Futures Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
Nvidia Earnings Boost, Trade Tariffs Legitimacy, NQ trade ideaCME_MINI:NQ1! Big Picture Context: . NQ futures rallied after NVIDIA posted an earnings beat and after the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade blocked President Trump's Liberation Day tariffs. Goldman Sachs noted that the ruling on Liberation Day tariffs gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection, but does not affect sectoral tariffs. The administration can still impose across-the-board and country-specific tariffs under other legal authorities. Jobless claims and continuing claims have come in higher. What has the market done? The rally faded in the overnight session. However, the catalysts provided energy for prices to move higher. Currently, price is trading above the prior week’s high, yesterday’s high, and it is also trading above the yearly open, and 2025 VPOC and mcVPOC for the last 3 weeks. What is it trying to do? The market is negating the recent bear market territory sell-off and negating a bear market rally. It is propelling higher. How good of a job is it doing? The market has created good structure and micro composites, despite some gaps left open, and it has created higher lows since last Friday. What is more likely to happen from here? Scenario 1: Long Continuation In this scenario, we are looking for NQ to turn at the immediate 2025 LVN support area. If it edges higher, we will be looking for potential long opportunities above the 21710–21720 area, targeting overnight highs and potentially the next HVN. Scenario 2: Gap Close and Reversal In this scenario, we are looking for a pullback, testing pHi and pWk-Hi. We will look for a rounded base that consolidates here on a lower timeframe, such as the 5-minute timeframe, and look for a reversal back towards the 21710–21720 level. pWk-Hi: prior Week's High pHi: prior Day's High HVN: High Volume Node LNV: Low Volume Node VPOC: Volume Point of Control C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear
Divergence Since 2020 - What Happens When Bonds Continue?When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean? We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling? Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure? A healthy, three-way interdependent relationship occurs when the economy, bonds, and stocks move in the same direction. When investors have confidence in the U.S. economy, they tend to invest in long-term bonds, which it usually will benefits the stock market. This alignment was evident between 2000 and 2020, during which bonds and stocks moved largely in tandem. However, from 2020 onward, bonds began declining—signaling a loss of investor confidence in the economy. Technically, this should exert downward pressure on stocks as well. Yet, we are witnessing a divergence: Where U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen while stocks have continued to rise. When such a divergence surfaces, it signals the need for caution in our approach in the stock markets. What could be the other reasons why US T-bond has peaked in 2020 and depreciated by 44% since then? Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.sweetlogin.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
2
MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025 📈 19840 19900 19965 📉 19779 19717 19655 Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support! Please like and share for more ES/NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by J3Trad3s
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/17/2025 📈18594 18670 18740 📉18440 18365 18290 Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support! Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by J3Trad3s
1
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/11/2025 (Just because 😏) 📈18670 18820 📉18220 18060 Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support! Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰 *These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by J3Trad3s
2