Is MRNA revealing major upside opportunity? BULL or BEAR? Today we're looking at MRNA aka Moderna, the darling biotech that might be the savior of us all should they produce an mRNA vaccine that could be more easily produced and distributed at scale than a traditional vaccine candidate.
Reading into this story I've been intrigued, especially with the nice patterns forming in this chart with an easy to identify Impulse wave and a correction pattern currently forming. Unfortunately, this is always the riskier proposition and we must consider our Bull and Bear cases objectively so that we have a plan.
As you'll see, we recently bounced off the 0.5 fib retracement from the all-time high of $95 all the way back to $53. Looks like a healthy bounce off that level. But we should almost always expect it. There is nothing to get excited about until we see a more convincing bounce with volume.
While I love the long term pattern being set up in this chart with that hopeful bull target of $136.99, there's a lot of work to make up and resistance to overcome before we get anywhere close. The declining volume is something to watch out for. If you zoom in you'll see the upward channel off the bounce paired with the declining volume. This would indicate that short term we'll retest the low, and if we're lucky we can get a buying opportunity off that low and off the 0.618 at $43.50.
Set your ladders appropriately and always calculate your stop loss according to risk preference fo % loss below average calculated cost. If you plan your buy levels and amount in advance you can easily calculate the average buy price and then subtract 20% for example to reach a reasonable stop loss which shields you from setting a stop loss too high and missing the following run, or setting it too low and losing more than you are willing to.
Meanwhile, looking at the long term trend, we'll have some trading potential on the stock, but need to look for some volatility within the current correction pattern. Given the sharp increase and resulting decrease, one can assume we might see similar moves again in the future, though there's nothing to indicate exactly when at the moment until we see a better channel or a convincing wedge reveal itself.
The longer-term trend bodes well for your everyday investor who's willing to take some loss for a very large potential gain. Should Moderna create their mRNA based vaccine in time and be successful with distribution, the value of this company would quickly skyrocket. I'm willing to bet on an optimistic future and I'm definitely keeping an eye on this opportunity with the buy ladders I've mentioned indicated.
What's your Bull and Bear case on Moderna? How would you play this in the short and long term?
