Long trade
Trade Overview: DOGEUSDT Long Position
Entry Price: 0.15701
Profit Target: 0.16355 (+2.95%)
Stop Loss: 0.15520 (–1.16%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.54
🕒 Entry Time: 7:15 PM
📅 Date: Monday, 21st April 2025
🌏 Session: Tokyo PM
The 5-minute timeframe showed a bullish internal structure shift, suggesting a short-term reversal. Additionally, the lower wick rejection indicated buy-stop liquidity being cleared, likely squeezing out early long positions before the true move began.
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Long From Support Explained
There is a high chance that WTI Crude Oil will go up
from the underlined key daily support.
As a confirmation, the price violated both a neckline of an inverted
head & shoulders pattern and a resistance line of a falling wedge
on an hourly time frame.
Goals: 63.780 / 64.275
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GBP/USD London Session
📌 Timeframe:1H
📌 Bias: Bullish
📌 Key Levels:
- Sell-side Liquidity Target: 1H SIBI at 1.33930
- Bullish Entry Zone: Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance
- Final Target: 1.34300
Market Context & Analysis
- Asian Session Recap: Price opened and traded higher, leaving behind a **1H SIBI**, which was later tapped into.
- Liquidity Sweep: Price made a higher high before pulling back, now targeting sell-side liquidity at 1.33930.
- Bullish Setup Plan: Expecting price to sweep the **sell-side liquidity**, tap into the Consequent Encroachment of the imbalance, and confirm bullish momentum.
- Final Target: Anticipating a rally toward 1.34300, which aligns with a strong resistance level.
Execution Strategy
1. Wait for Price Action Confirmation
- Look for bullish rejection wicks or strong engulfing candles at the Consequent Encroachment zone.
- Avoid early entries; wait for liquidity grab and clear directional shift.
2. Entry & Stop-Loss Considerations
- Ideal Entry: Once bullish confirmations are observed post-liquidity sweep.
- Stop-Loss: Below the recent **liquidity sweep low** to ensure risk protection.
3. Risk-to-Reward & Position Management
- Aim for R:R ratio of at least 1:3, securing partial profits as price approaches 1.34300
- Monitor market conditions and adjust if necessary based on order flow dynamics.
GOLD (XAU/USD) : Finally time for a correction Technical Analysis:
1.) Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse is complete.
2.) RSI is overbought (typically >70 on most platforms) — this often signals a momentum slowdown and coming reversal.
Thus,
The Market is likely about to shift into corrective mode → A-B-C pullback, as you’ve sketched.
Market Psychology:
At Wave (5) + Overbought RSI, the psychology is typically:
Retail traders rush to buy the top.
Smart money prepares to exit or short.
Trigger events (fundamental catalysts) are only needed for acceleration, not for reversal to start.
Long trade
15min overview
Trade Overview: SOLUSDT Long Position
Entry Price: 138.794
Profit Target: 141.053 (+1.63%)
Stop Loss: 138.510 (–0.20%)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 7.95
🕐 Entry Time: 1:00 AM (Tue, 22nd April 2025)
🗺 Session: Late NY Session / Tokyo AM Session
⏱ Observed Timeframe entry: 5-Minute TF
Trade Reasoning
Buy-Side Liquidity Targeted: Entry followed a liquidity sweep beneath a short-term low, triggering buy-side momentum from resting orders.
US30 bearish play setting upThe hourly chart is in a downtrend, and we are at that trend line.
On the 15m chart, the momentum of buyers has slowed down to the point where sellers hit it hard as shown by the black arrow.
We want to see the "Last strong buyer" failing to make a new high (or creating a fake high), retesting the horizontal and price falling out of bed.
Waiting for the retest is best but price might not retest before dropping.
USDJPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 146.500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.99
Entry 110%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
NZDCAD SHORT Market Structure bearish on HTFs DW
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure point
Around Psychological Level 0.82500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 5.31
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Gold or Bitcoin - Which is the better hedge for 2024?Short answer: Bitcoin
By the year end Bitcoin shall enjoy stronger gains. That is despite the 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle now currently printing on Bitcoin, which makes you wonder… what heinous price action awaits gold bugs?
On the above 3-day chart a ratio of Gold/Bitcoin is shown. If this ratio is downtrending (it is), Bitcoin will be worth more than Gold with each passing week and vice versa.
A Death Cross has now printed on the above 3-day chart after broken market structure. Expect the ratio to climb to confirm past support as resistance.
The 3-day death cross is significant. Look left. The last 3-day death cross printed on March 2016 (below). Gold lost 99% of its value against Bitcoin from that time. Now I’m not saying that is going to repeat, however the point would be that a 3-day death cross is not something you ignore.
Ww
3-day Death cross March 2016
Last year (2023) and the years before the same question:
Which is the better hold for preserving ones wealth?
In 2023, it was Bitcoin.
2023 idea
In 2022, it was Gold. Idea below. Bitcoin correction throughout 2022 made Gold the only option during the bear market.
2022 Idea
XAUUSD - When will the gold trend reverse?!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range.
The global gold market has experienced notable shifts in trade flows following the removal of retaliatory tariffs on metals imposed by the Trump administration. According to data, a significant portion of gold that had been moved to New York since December is now being returned to Switzerland, its original destination.
Swiss customs data reveals that gold imports from the United States surged to 25.5 metric tons in March—the highest level in 13 months—up from just 12.1 tons in February. In contrast, gold exports from Switzerland to the U.S. dropped by 32%, falling to 103.2 tons.
For the first time in over 14 months, Comex-approved warehouses, part of the CME Group, have recorded consistent outflows of gold. These outflows indicate a reduction in U.S. futures premiums and a decline in trader anxiety following the removal of tariffs.
Switzerland has once again emerged as the primary destination for gold leaving American vaults, reaffirming its central role in global gold refining and logistics. Nevertheless, a portion of the gold stored in U.S. warehouses continues to serve as a hedge against market uncertainties.
In an average year, the U.S.consumes around 115 metric tons of gold in the form of physical coins and bars. Current data suggests that kilobar inventories held in CME warehouses are sufficient to meet this demand for nearly 12 years.
The gold market remains heavily influenced by geopolitical and economic factors. These developments highlight Switzerland’s importance in refining and transportation, as well as the United States’ significant role in gold storage and resource management.
Meanwhile, a growing number of economic forecasts are warning that the U.S. may be entering a period of “stagflation”—a situation characterized by stagnating economic growth coupled with persistently high inflation. Tariffs have the potential to drive up consumer prices while simultaneously slowing growth, placing financial pressure on households, particularly if the labor market deteriorates.
Central banks face serious challenges in responding to stagflation through monetary policy, as efforts to address one side of the issue often exacerbate the other. Even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession triggered by tariffs, many economists foresee rising risks of a painful stagflationary period.
While economic experts remain divided on whether former President Trump’s trade wars will ultimately tip the economy into recession, a large number of recent forecasts underscore the increasing threat of prolonged inflation combined with sluggish growth. Numerous analysts, including Federal Reserve officials, argue that tariffs are likely to hamper economic expansion and weaken the labor market, all while elevating consumer prices.
However, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial, is among those who believe the labor market and consumers remain resilient enough to help the economy steer clear of a full-blown recession—assuming recently announced tariffs are eventually scaled back.
CHFJPY: Back to the Trend?! 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY looks bullish after a test of a key daily horizontal support.
It looks like the correction that we currently see on intraday time frames is over.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag
pattern on an hourly time frame.
Goal - 175.62
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NAS100 - Will the stock market go bullish?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for the next Nasdaq long positions with a good risk-reward ratio.
Economists remain divided over whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are weakening the economy enough to trigger a recession. Some believe the possibility of a recession is significant, citing the rising costs of tariffs that are burdening both businesses and consumers. Others argue that the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the trade war without falling into recession, pointing to resilient employment levels and consumer spending.
Forecasting experts also express differing views regarding the risk that Trump’s tariff campaign could tip the economy into a downturn. A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in April among 57 economists revealed that, on average, participants estimated a 45% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months—up from just 20% in the January survey.
The economic outlook took a notable downturn in February, when Trump began announcing tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters, who had expected a “soft landing” from post-pandemic inflation, are now preparing for a possible recession, as these tariffs and other economic barriers are forcing both households and businesses to tighten spending.
A separate survey of financial professionals working with businesses found that many companies have recently faced greater difficulty in collecting payments from clients, indicating growing financial strain among key economic players. The Credit Managers’ Index, overseen by the National Association of Credit Management and monitored by economist Chris Kuehl, still showed growth in March, though at a slower pace than before.
On the more optimistic side is Allen Sinai from Decision Economics, who assigns only a 20% probability to a recession within the next year. Although this is an increase from his January estimate of 10%, he still considers it an unlikely scenario.
Sinai’s primary reason for optimism is the strength of the labor market, which has remained stable since recovering from the massive layoffs during the COVID-19 lockdowns. March’s unemployment rate was 4.2%—close to historic lows—and not indicative of an economy in recession.
One major point of disagreement between recession pessimists and optimists lies in the interpretation of consumer sentiment data. Surveys have shown that people are increasingly worried about inflation, the job market, and their personal finances. If such concerns lead to more cautious consumer spending, it could weigh heavily on the overall economy.
The upcoming week is expected to begin quietly in terms of economic data releases, particularly due to global markets being closed on Monday in observance of Easter. However, midweek brings key reports that could significantly influence market expectations. On Wednesday, the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index for April and March new home sales figures are due. Thursday will feature a packed slate of indicators, including durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
Alongside the data releases, investors will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Following Jerome Powell’s firm stance last week, upcoming speeches by Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Harker could shape or reinforce market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path.
Meanwhile, Apple is grappling with mounting challenges in the global marketplace. In China, the company has lost a significant portion of its market share, with sales declining by 9%, while Huawei’s sales have grown by 10%, and Xiaomi now holds the top spot with an 18.6% market share. These shifts reflect a notable pivot in Chinese consumer preferences toward domestic brands. Furthermore, U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods have put additional pressure on Apple’s profit margins in its home market, placing the company in a tough position.