NAS100 - WHAT THE F*** IS GOING ON? (KEY LEVELS)Hey Traders, yesterday’s market shake-up wasn’t just about the Fed's chess moves. A trifecta of less-than-stellar employment data, lukewarm tech earnings, and regional bank jitters sent the NAS100 on a rollercoaster, underscoring the fragile nature of our current economic landscape.
The Fed's stance was the talk of the town, maintaining a rate plateau between 5.25% and 5.5%. But here's the kicker: the Fed's not just playing hard to get with rate cuts—they want to be absolutely sure inflation is well-tamed before making a move. The puzzle? Inflation's at a tame 1.9%, yet they're still holding out for a clearer sign.
Powell's cool-headed presser post-meeting hinted at a 'wait and see' approach, calming fears of economic overheating or cooling. The good news? Inflation's behaving, and growth is chugging along. But the markets are twitchy, and the odds of a March rate cut have edged down from 'likely' to 'let's talk later.'
Now, let's bring in New York Community Bancorp’s plunge into the mix. Was it a one-off, or a canary in the coal mine for the banking sector? Concerns over credit quality and margins are in the air, with all eyes on whether this spells broader banking woes or just a case of merger indigestion.
As we gear up for our NAS100 price action analysis, these economic plot twists are crucial. They're the backdrop to every candlestick and trend line we're about to dissect. Stay tuned as we unravel the price story against this economic saga.
Based on the provided chart of the US 100 index and considering the backdrop of the latest economic news, here is an analysis that blends market sentiment with price action analysis:
What is on the chart? (key levels to look out for)
1) We have our retracement levels + the 4 hour FVG and BOS level. This area is a key resistance zone.
2) The order block that might provide us with a temporary (or permanent) bottom. You can consider it as a support level and it will determine the next step in our price action story.
3) Key daily level that is a great support area. You have the FVG + BOS level (previous ATH so significant) + discounted area.
4) This is a significant sellside level that I doubt will be broken with the current outlook which is more uncertain than bearish but still important to outline.
CONCLUSIVE SENTIMENT: Given the current economic context where the Fed is cautiously optimistic yet not ready to lower rates, the failure to break the ATH in the index could reflect a market that is wary of overextension and preparing for a period of consolidation or retracement. Investors may be taking a more defensive posture, awaiting further economic indicators before committing to a direction.
In essence, the sentiment appears to be one of caution, as reflected in the index's price behaviour and recent economic developments. Traders are advised to watch the key technical levels and stay informed on economic updates, as these could significantly impact market direction in the near term.
As always, stay cold headed and keep your money close! HAPPY TRADING!!!!
