Market Review: Full Higher Time Frame Review of NASDAQ bear runI hope this get's featured 🎯
The simplest macroeconomic review of NASDAQ you may see this year.
It's all a fib retracement. That's all I have to say for now 🔪 Share this with someone looking for a good review 💰
**Video was cut short by a minute or two but the general idea was complete
Nasdaq
NASDAQ New Week Gap will tell you everything you need to knowIf you watched my idea update from Friday, I was saying that the sellside monthly lows as well as the 2023 yearly high are being targeted.
Low and behold, we hit all targets on the weekly gap drop. Let's see how price approaches the new week opening gap mid level (dashed white). It will definitely hit that level before the end of the week.
If it does not, that means we have super easy sellside targets to hit after a clear rejection back below tested highs as always.
Share this with someone needing easy targets 🎯
SPX500 & Nasdaq: Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!With consumer confidence off at circuit breaking levels, the market, technically, has reached extreme levels of support. Let's look at it:
Technicals:
(1) Horizontal Levels of support
(2) 50%/61.8% fib confluence
(3) exDiv1
(4) extreme indicators
(5) Chikou span testing cloud support
(6) 28% drop is SPX
All of these levels are lining up around the same location. And just like in real estate "Location! Location! Location!" is the adage; in markets, "Confluence! Confluence! Confluence!" is the adage!
When will NASDAQ stop melting? You can't say I didn't warn you!I hate to say I told you but I warned about this crash at my analysis back at September 2024 for NQ1! (you can see it at related ideas below), anticipating market moves based on structure well before the narrative around election and tariffs even began circulating.
We often see markets engineer these kinds of dramatic dives below obvious lows. This projection towards the 4.0-5.0 zone looks characteristic of such a liquidity hunt, designed to clear out sell-side stops and shake out traders before a potential major move higher – a dynamic not unlike what we anticipated previously.
While the projected sharp drop on NQ1! below key levels like the Monthly Order Block near 3.0 and the AG (actual gap) level near 3.5 might look aggressively bearish, I'm viewing this as a potential setup for a significant buy opportunity.
My attention is focused on that "Possible reversal level 1" between 4.0 and 5.0. If price stabilizes and shows rejection signs within this zone, it could signal the start of a powerful rally, potentially targeting levels back up towards the 1.75 area or even revisiting prior highs.
Remember, these market structure plays can take time to fully develop, just as previous setups did. We could see NQ consolidate or even briefly dip lower within that 4.0-5.0 zone before the anticipated upward reversal truly gains traction.
Thanks for reading, boost and follow to stay liquid and not become liquidity.
Wish you safe and informed trading decisions.
___________
CME_MINI:NQ1! TVC:VIX
Weekly Market Forecast: Short Term Buys, Then Sells! In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures for the week of April 7 - 11th.
The Stock Market Indices may find support at current levels for a Bear Market Rally. Wait for the market structure shift to the upside before taking any buys. Let the market confirm it's intended direction first, then look for valid buy setups for a short term countertrend play.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P 500 Records Largest Weekly Decline Since 2020The S&P 500 Index has suffered its steepest two-day drop since the pandemic crash in March 2020. On April 4th, 2025, the benchmark index closed at 5,074.08, down 322.44 points (5.97%). This marks a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value across just two sessions.
The sell-off followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He warned that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could lead to persistently higher inflation. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the red. Only 14 stocks remained positive as Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla dropped 10%.
The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 6.1%, confirming a bear market after losing over 20% from its February peak. The rapid decline mirrors the speed seen during the 2020 COVID crash and the 2000 dot-com bust.
President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday. These include a 10% general tariff and higher rates on dozens of countries. China responded by imposing a 34% levy on American goods. The tit-for-tat measures triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war.
Global markets reacted sharply. Investors pulled out of stocks and moved into safer assets like government bonds. The two-day loss of $5 trillion on the S&P 500 set a new record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion loss during March 2020.
Rick Meckler, of Cherry Lane Investments, said the escalation is now deeper than many investors expected. The initial belief that tariffs were a negotiation tactic has now given way to serious market concerns.
Technical Analysis: Price Approaching Key Support Zones. Will They Hold?
The S&P 500 has shown a bearish trend since early 2025. Several weekly candles have closed bearish, confirming a strong downtrend. Currently, the index is trading lower toward a key ascending trendline near $4,930.
The $4,930 support level may offer short-term support. A bounce from here could see a brief recovery. However, the sentiment remains bearish without strong economic data or policy changes.
Further Downside Risk If Support Fails
Another horizontal support sits at $4,780. If both support levels fail, the index may fall toward the $4,500 psychological zone. This level is crucial as it marks a long-term support and potential reversal point.
At present, bearish momentum dominates, with much strength coming from trade war fears. Unless data shifts investor sentiment, the downtrend may persist.
SPX500: The trendline show a bottom in Sept 2025 at 4700 We're being magnetically pulled toward the trendline bottom around 4700.
Based on the current MACD and RSI signals, the bearish scenario could continue until September–October 2025. This correction is very similar to the one from 2022.
There will be some dead cats bounces, but do not be fooled, the MACD is reseting hard.
Stay sharp. Be ready.
DYOR.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
Market Update: NASDAQ 100 Analysis📈 The NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 18,075.00, which represents a -22.6% decline from the all-time high of 22,425.75 . This marks a significant drop from its peak, entering into what could be classified as a bear market by traditional standards.
📊The previous decline from the high of 16,800.00 in November 2021 saw a decline of 37.47% , eventually bottoming out at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (10,514.25), from which it staged a significant recovery to reach the all-time high of 22,425.75.
📊Current Demand Zones & Fibonacci Levels:
These zones represent potential reversal areas where buyers could regain control. The Fibonacci retracement levels align well with historical price action, reinforcing their significance as support zones.
DZ-1 (17,539.00-16,334.85): Approximately the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bull rally
DZ-2 (16,334.85-15,384.25): Approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - Historically a strong support level
DZ-3 (15,384.25-14,557.00): Critical structural level with prior buyer interest
DZ-4 (14,557.00-14,140.25): Deep support level - key psychological zone
📈 Recovery Potential
To regain the all-time high of 22,425.7 5, the market would need to achieve the following percentage gains from each demand zone:
From DZ-1 (Top: 17,539.00, Base: 16,334.85): 📈 +37.3% to all-time high
From DZ-2 (Top: 16,334.85, Base: 15,384.25): 📈 +45.8% to all-time high
From DZ-3 (Top: 15,384.25, Base: 14,557.00): 📈 +54.0% to all-time high
From DZ-4 (Top: 14,557.00, Base: 14,140.25): 📈 +58.6% to all-time high
The DZ-2 to DZ-3 range provides the most likely region for a significant reversal based on confluence between historical support levels and Fibonacci retracements. While DZ-4 aligns with the 37% historical decline.
🔑 Key Takeaways
The NASDAQ 100 s is in a significant correction phase, down -22.6% from its peak.
Price is approaching critical Demand/support zones (DZ-1 to DZ-4), which may act as reversal points.
A return to all-time highs would require substantial gains, particularly if the market reaches the deeper demand zones.
Investors should closely monitor price action around the DZ-2 to DZ-3 range (15,384.25 - 14,557.00) for signs of a potential reversal.
Additionally, staying updated on developments related to the new tariffs is essential, as they may heavily influence market dynamics in the coming months.
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners.
As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate.
Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured.
According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market.
Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support
Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support.
A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves.
Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone.
In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
Combined US Indexes - Lower High Lower Low checked; What next...As previously expected, a lower low has been achieved.
What was not expected was the speed, magnitude and extent of the fallout.
Next up, since it is about 3.5 Standard Deviations out, we can start looking for a consolidation, although there might be slightly more downside and we need a higher low in the expected range within box. Having said that, it is possible to see it overextend downwards briefly.
There is a long term support, Fibonacci downside target zone just below.
So expecting a short term bounce between Monday to Wednesday at the earliest, and following that a consolidation area formation.
Understanding the ICT Venom ModelIn this video I break down the ICT Venom Model as recently described by the man himself on his YouTube channel. I am sure he has more details on the model he has not released, but I basically attempt to give my two cents on NQ and the model itself.
I hope you find the video useful in your endeavours regarding learning ICT concepts as well as trading in general.
- R2F Trading
NAS100 Turn of the Month Strategy Meets Market Volatility!In this video, we dive into the Turn of the Month Strategy and explore how it could play out in the current market environment. Historically, mutual funds rebalance their portfolios at the end of the month, creating buying pressure that often leads to higher stock prices into the new month. Additionally, recurring financial inflows, such as monthly salary payments and pension contributions, tend to boost market demand during this period.
However, this month presents a unique challenge. The NASDAQ 100 has capitulated into the end of the month, driven by heightened volatility and uncertainty fueled by Donald Trump's rhetoric. With the market currently trading into a significant support zone and liquidity pool, we analyze whether the Turn of the Month effect can counteract the recent bearish momentum.
📊 Key Highlights in the Video:
Price Action Analysis: The NASDAQ 100 is deeply overextended, trading into a critical liquidity pool.
Trade Idea: A potential counter-trend rally could emerge as the market seeks to correct and rebalance.
Strategy: Look for a short-term rally into resistance, followed by a possible shorting opportunity as the market resumes its downward trend.
This video is perfect for traders looking to combine price action trading with seasonal strategies like the Turn of the Month effect. Will the market rally into the new month, or will bearish momentum prevail? Watch now to find out! 🚀
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000.
Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.'
Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index.
his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next.
📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation?
One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages:
🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA)
These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum.
The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure.
Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand.
🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA)
The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends.
In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it.
This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure.
🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA)
The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends.
Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market.
The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control.
➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal.
Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure
We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower.
Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge.
🔥 What’s Next?
If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally.
If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets.
Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery.
Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
NASDAQ tanking! Do the right thing and CUT RATES NOW Jerome!The market is collapsing, China is retaliating with 34% tariffs and Powell is making jokes!
Well that pretty much sums up the market news since yesterday, with Nasdaq / US100 having the worst day since the COVID crash 5 years ago while President Trump shouting 'the market is going to boom'.
Today China imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on imports of U.S. goods and the worst of all.. Jerome Powell on his speech a little earlier was making jokes about his purple tie, avoiding to address the elephant in the room and take action!
Nasdaq is testing the August 5th 2024 Low, having crossed even under the 1week MA100 for the first time since May 15th 2023! At the same time the 1week RSI just got oversold at 30.00.
Reminds you of something? Yes that's right the last time Nasdaq broke under its 1week MA100 that fast and got oversold on its 1week RSI was on the week of March 16th 2020: YES the COVID crash.
What happened then? Well dear old Fed stepped up, did what they HAD to and cut rates to near zero (0.25%).
Even President Trump tweeted just a few hours ago that Powell should cut rates now and stop playing politics!
Tariffs are in place and they will pay off very well in the long term. On the shorter term, it is in Powell's hands save the economy.
-- Do the right thing and finally CUT THE RATES Jerome! --
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Short-Term Gamble on a NASDAQ Bounce Using TQQQIn this quick update, I’m taking a speculative short-term trade on a possible NASDAQ recovery after a steep sell-off. Was the market oversold—at least for a day? Maybe. Do I think the pain is over for the longer term? Probably not.
I’m using NASDAQ:TQQQ , a 3x leveraged ETF that tracks the NASDAQ-100 (the top 100 non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ). This means if the index moves up 2%, TQQQ should theoretically gain roughly 6%, and vice versa on the downside. Leveraged ETFs like this are high-risk, time-sensitive instruments—they’re designed for short-term trades, not buy-and-hold investing.
The idea here is that after a sharp drop, institutions might step in to scoop up oversold tech stocks, creating a brief rebound. If that happens, TQQQ could give me amplified upside. But this is purely a gamble—I’m under no illusion that the market has bottomed. In fact, I expect more downside ahead.
I entered in the after-hours session once some of the heavy bearish volume faded, and I’ve set a tight 5% stop-loss to manage risk. Yes, I could get shaken out by an early dip before any rebound, but the stop is there to protect me if the sell-off continues.
This is a high-risk, short-term trade—buyer beware. If you’re considering TQQQ, understand the risks: decay from daily resetting leverage, extreme volatility, and the potential for rapid losses.
I’ll update on how this plays out. Wish me luck in the comments below 😁
Real question is where to take profit...
Agape ATP's $24 Billion Breakthrough! In a market landscape clouded by macroeconomic uncertainty and weakening sentiment, Agape ATP Corporation (NASDAQ: ATPC) has emerged as a countercyclical outlier with its recent announcement of two landmark Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) worth approximately USD 24 billion. Signed with Swiss One Oil & Gas AG, these agreements mark a bold step forward for ATPC, setting the stage for an ambitious entry into the refined fuels distribution market on a global scale.
The SPAs follow a successful Initial Corporate Purchase Order (ICPO) completed in February 2025, which served as a proving ground for initial trial shipments. Under the terms of the agreements, ATPC will initially supply 200,000 metric tonnes of EN590 10PPM diesel and 2 million barrels of Jet Fuel A1 in March 2025. Following successful execution of this validation phase, the contracts are structured to scale rapidly to weekly deliveries of 500,000 metric tonnes of diesel and 2 million barrels of Jet Fuel A1 — an exponential increase that underscores the strategic ambition of both parties.
All deliveries will be conducted using Free on Board (FOB) procedures at major international ports, with product quality certified by SGS or equivalent agencies in accordance with ASTM/IP standards. This not only enhances transparency and credibility but also signals ATPC's commitment to international compliance and operational rigour.
What makes this deal truly transformative is the sheer scale of the undertaking. If executed to full potential, weekly deliveries of 2 million barrels of jet fuel would translate into an annual supply of roughly 104 million barrels — equivalent to around 2% of total annual U.S. jet fuel consumption. Such volume would position ATPC as a serious contender within the global energy trade ecosystem, shifting its profile from a relatively obscure player to a recognisable force in refined fuel logistics and supply.
The structural staging of the agreement — trial, validation, then full-scale execution — reveals a commercially astute strategy. It reduces upfront risk and capital exposure while providing room for operational ramp-up and systems optimisation. However, the magnitude of the weekly delivery requirements suggests that ATPC must urgently enhance its logistical capabilities, secure dependable supply sources, and establish robust quality assurance and compliance frameworks.
From a financial standpoint, the implications are staggering. The USD 24 billion value of the agreements stands in stark contrast to ATPC's current market capitalisation of just USD 5.17 million — a disconnect representing a multiple of over 4,600 times. While such disparity is not uncommon in early-stage high-growth stories, it highlights the importance of scrutinising the company’s readiness to scale operationally and financially.
Under FOB terms, ATPC will bear the cost of acquiring and transporting the fuel to the port of loading, thereby requiring significant working capital. Timely financing and cash flow management will be paramount, especially as delivery volume scales. Questions surrounding margin structure, procurement reliability, and commodity price hedging strategies will need to be addressed to fully appreciate the risk-return profile of this venture.
Yet, amid broader market softness and investor caution, ATPC’s bold strategic execution stands out. If the company successfully navigates the complex logistics, financial demands, and operational scale-up, this agreement has the potential to redefine its financial trajectory and long-term shareholder value.
In an era where execution is everything, Agape ATP’s audacious move could very well prove prescient. Investors will be watching closely — not just for signs of progress, but for proof of delivery.
Article inspired by Stock Titan.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed sharply lower due to the aftermath of tariff impositions. Following a significant gap-down, the index broke below the lower Bollinger Band, intensifying selling pressure. Yesterday’s bearish candlestick confirmed a sell signal, leading to an expanded third wave of selling. The index has now reached the previous support zone near 18,500, with additional volatility expected due to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
On the monthly chart, the Nasdaq is forming a lower shadow around the 20-month moving average. Given the sharp decline, if further selling occurs, oversold conditions may trigger a strong rebound, making it risky to chase shorts at this stage. The 240-minute chart also shows a sell signal, with heavy selling pressure continuing. However, this is a risky zone to enter new short positions, so it's advisable to monitor short-term price movements before making a move.
Regardless of whether you take long or short positions, due to high volatility, make sure to set stop-loss levels and adjust leverage to a manageable risk level.
Additionally, the VIX surged, forming a large bullish candle and reaching its March 11 high. With the VIX in an uptrend and a buy signal appearing, further volatility expansion is likely. However, since it has reached a key resistance zone, a short-term pullback in the VIX could allow for a Nasdaq rebound. For the VIX to break above its previous high, a period of consolidation may be necessary. Given the strong buying momentum on both the weekly and monthly charts, this should be taken into consideration when forming a trading strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil plunged following the OPEC meeting, where supply increases became a key issue. While oversupply concerns are a factor, the economic slowdown fears from tariffs have also played a major role in the decline. Previously, $68 was considered a strong support level, but oil collapsed from $72 in a steep decline. The final key support lies around $66.
On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are converging near the zero line, suggesting that once a new wave begins, it could lead to a strong trend movement. Depending on today's session and Monday’s market, oil could see an aggressive breakout in either direction. Current candlestick patterns indicate that the weekly chart remains bearish, meaning holding long positions over the weekend carries significant risk.
The 240-minute chart also confirms a strong sell signal, with MACD plummeting. Oil may form a temporary sideways range near the $66 support, but if this level breaks, selling pressure could intensify. Ensure you manage stop-loss risks carefully in case of further downside.
Gold
Gold declined, reacting to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar's value. The price failed to hold above $3,200 and dropped below the 5-day moving average. Gold has been in a one-way trend, so a bullish approach remains valid unless it breaks below the 10-day MA. However, it has now entered a range-bound phase, and MACD on the daily chart is nearing the signal line, suggesting potential downside risks. The MACD failed to break its February highs, increasing the likelihood of divergence, which could trigger a strong correction if selling intensifies. With rising market volatility and today's NFP release, further wild swings in gold prices are expected.
The 240-minute chart has shown a sell signal, leading to a sharp decline. However, the price has found support near a key resistance-turned-support zone. Since the MACD and signal line remain above the zero line, gold may continue trading within a range in the short term. On shorter timeframes, candlestick volatility is high, so reducing leverage and widening stop ranges would be a prudent strategy.
During periods of extreme market volatility, technical analysis may become less effective, as market sentiment often overrides chart patterns. As always, trade only within your manageable volatility range. The market is always open, so even if you incur losses, there will always be opportunities to recover. Manage risk wisely, and best of luck with your trades today!
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Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?
S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis;
This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally.
Let me explain now;
5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear.
In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’.
From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation.
Now comes the week of 1 May.
- FED's interest rate decision,
- Trump's budget plan,
- And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced.
While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’.
Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons .
I would also like to ask you here;
What will greet the market when this date comes?
Harsh interest rate rhetoric?
Trump's aggressive economic agenda?
Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
NQ - Nasdaq's potential to reboundThe Median or Centerline:
The Median (Centerline) Line is the central element of the Pitchfork and acts as the equilibrium point. Price tends to oscillate around this line, and it often serves as a strong reference for potential reversals or price targets. A price move back toward the Median Line is common after significant moves away from it.
Pitchfork (Red):
The red Pitchfork, drawn through significant price points, provides the overall trend direction and shows the potential path to the downside. The red line indicates a bearish bias in the current setup, as it has been guiding the price lower.
Green Circles and Arrows:
These represent key areas of support.
The lower green circle and green arrows indicate price has found solid support in this region. The price has been bouncing from this support level, showing that it is reacting to the [ower boundary of the Pitchfork. This behavior aligns with the rule that the price tends to respect these boundaries, creating a foundation for a potential move back toward the Median Line.
Price Action Analysis:
The price recently tested the lower green circle and green arrows, bouncing off this support level, which is a typical reaction in a Pitchfork setup.
According to the Median Line theory , when the price moves too far away from the Median Line, it often returns toward it. Therefore, the bounce off the lower boundary suggests that price may now be setting up for a bullish reversal toward the RED Median Line .
Bottom Line:
The price action is following the general Pitchfork playbook . The bounce from the lower green circle suggests that the price is setting up for a potential bullish reversal toward the RED Median Line .
The next major test will be the upper resistance in the red Pitchfork , after the break of the Centerline. If the price can break through this resistance, a strong move higher is likely.
Keep an eye on this critical point!