NAS100 - Will the Stock Market Reach Its Previous High?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the trend line is broken, I expect corrective moves, but if the index corrects towards the demand zone, we can look for further buying positions in Nasdaq with a risk-reward ratio. Maintaining this trend line will lead to a continuation of the Nasdaq upward trend.
The strong rally in U.S. equities that had pushed the S&P 500 close to record highs for 2025 came to a halt on Friday, following the release of disappointing consumer sentiment data. A report from the University of Michigan revealed a drop in consumer confidence and a surge in inflation expectations to levels not seen in decades—factors that have amplified concerns about the economy’s outlook.
Despite this, some analysts remain hopeful that robust corporate earnings and the temporary suspension of tariffs could provide needed support for the market. Meanwhile, rating agency Moody’s warned that U.S. federal debt is projected to climb to 134% of GDP by 2035, up from 98% in 2024.
Moody’s noted that while the U.S. economy and financial system remain strong, the weakening of certain fiscal indicators has diminished the ability of these strengths to offset negative effects. According to their analysis, trade tariffs will not significantly impact long-term U.S. economic growth, and substantial changes in mandatory spending are unlikely in the near future.
Although the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded, the country’s long-term domestic and foreign credit ceilings remain at AAA. However, Moody’s has revised the overall credit rating for the U.S. down from AAA to Aa1.
One noteworthy detail is that since April 21, the index has seen only one negative trading day—May 9, which experienced only a slight decline. Falling Treasury yields have reduced some market risks, while Donald Trump’s trip to the Middle East has also helped ease political tensions at home. The market clearly reflects growing investor appetite for risk, though the possibility of a correction at these levels remains real.
Looking ahead to this week, traders will closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for May on Thursday. They will also pay attention to speeches from several Federal Reserve officials to gauge whether the Fed remains focused on economic growth or has shifted more attention to inflation, especially in light of recent U.S.-China trade agreements.
A rise in PMI figures may suggest that business sentiment has improved since tensions eased between the U.S. and China, but investors are also eager for clear guidance on the Fed’s next policy steps. Key speakers include John Williams (New York Fed), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), and Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed). If these officials continue to express concerns about elevated inflation risks, the U.S. dollar could continue to strengthen, as markets may price in fewer rate cuts ahead.
As for the equity markets, their reaction remains uncertain. Recently, equities have risen even as expectations for rate cuts have diminished—primarily due to a reduced fear of recession following tariff adjustments. However, with recession fears now less pronounced and a growing narrative around sustained higher rates due to sticky inflation, Wall Street may pull back if Fed officials emphasize upside inflation risks.
In related news, President Donald Trump harshly criticized Walmart’s pricing strategy, stating that the company should absorb the cost of tariffs rather than passing them onto consumers. In a public statement, Trump pointed out that Walmart made billions in profit last year and argued that American shoppers should not bear the burden of higher prices caused by trade tariffs.
Trump also implicated China in the issue, stating that either Walmart or China should take responsibility for these added costs. He warned that both he and consumers are closely watching how Walmart handles the situation.
