Strong Support & Favorable Risk-Reward in Natural GasI'm bullish in the short-term and through 2020.
- Natural Gas ($2.327) is currently sitting below the 20d ($2.37), 50d ($2.56), and 200d ($2.8) MAs.
- The recent retest of the 13-year falling trendline (orange) should also strengthen bull cases. In 2016 the trendline changed from resistance to support. And most recently in August, Natural Gas bounced off this trendline with gusto.
- Several converging support levels. There is minimal downside in Natural Gas Versus upside.
Over the short-term, 2-4 weeks, I think $2.55 will be achieved. From there $3.0 will potentially be next. I believe the support at $2.1 and $2.2 will hold over the near-term. I believe $3.8 may be achieved at some point in 2020.
Of course, there does exist risk in Natural Gas. There is a bear case. We could see a sell-off towards the lowest support levels. That would come in around $1.3. If that selloff does come, the signals will be the price action between 2.2-1.9 and a breaching of the white & orange trendlines lower. If this selloff does occur, I expect these lower prices to get bought up very quickly, thus making this scenario a strategic buying opportunity.
I welcome this selloff but I am not waiting for it. I expect the white support lines to be respected and for 3.0 to be achieved in the next couple months.
