NatGas Needs Solid Reason(s) To RallyOverall it's easy to see from fundamentals and technixals, that the bears are pushing this hard. I think an aim for them is at $2 which may see after summer season, but if production keeps up, and there's no on going heat waves, is a possibility.
At the moment NatGas needs simultaneous bullish news - possibly this Thursday EIA report below 5 year avg + high demand from further heat waves + possible supply disruptions
With another heat wave hitting Europe, there's still a good chance same is going strike US after this week's cooling off.
The recent fib level if holds offers support otherwise back to $2.20 and below
I am long though wondering what downside can happen at the moment unless highly bearish news - but if price gets to $2.50, unless some other news comes out, would look at short from there and close long.
That said, if weather in August offers week on week heat, looking 100 Fahrenheit over larger population centres, could see a short squeeze, and melt up to even possibly $2.70 but I think this would be an exception.
At the moment I think risk is to downside in very short term, even if EIA report is another bullish injection may not be enough. Am personally long though, as I get a financing credit, and give a 20% chance (jut based on opinion) of after this week mild weather, of some sort of extended heat over mid August - September.
Overall I am long, but there's a big risk to downside and setting up a new $2 - $2.30 trading range, then another drop below $2 once any chance of summer heat gone and into September.
