Nifty Not sustaining above mid channel support not a good omenNifty Not sustaining above mid channel support not a good omen for the Bull run. Somehow Nifty has to make a comeback in next 2 or maximum 3 days and sustain above Mid channel line which is around 18413 mark.
Right now Nifty als faced a trend line resistance which emancipates from previous top. The zone was too hot for Nifty to handle and it leaped back towards the support of 18323.
Supports for Nifty Will be at: 18323, 18275, 18206 and finally 18068 to 18040 zone. (Major buffer Support). Below 18K Bears start to loose control.
Resistances for Nifty: 18413, 18455, 18525 and finally 18601 (Major Resistance).
Niftyanalysis
Bearish divergence explained in NIFTY & BANK NIFTY.DIVERGENCE is when the price of a scrip is moving in opposite direction of an indicator, usually an oscillator. It acts as a warning that the price trend may be getting weaker. It does not necessarily mean that the trend will reverse. It could signal an exhaustion of the current trend, the beginning of a period of consolidation or a medium to long term reversal.
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Divergences are classified according to their levels of strength. Type A divergences are the strongest, Type B divergences show lesser strength and Type C divergences are the weakest. Type A divergences usually present the best trading opportunities, whereas Type B and Type C mostly lead to choppy price movement or consolidation.
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TYPE A: Type A bearish divergences occur when price rises to a new high but the oscillator is only able to rise to a high that is lower than the previous high of the oscillator. The divergences of this type often indicate a reversal towards a downtrend.
TYPE B: Type B bearish divergences are formed when the price makes two equal highs or a double top and the oscillator makes a lower second top.
TYPE C: Type C bearish divergences occur when price rises to a new high but the indicator stops at the same level it reached during the previous rally.
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Divergences are important signals which can be used to book profits on existing positions or pulling up your trailing stop losses. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both, are displaying bearish divergences on the daily timeframe.
Which type of bearish divergence do you see in NIFTY?
Comment below.
Nifty Flowing confidently in the 30 minute channel. Nifty on a 30-minute chart is looking very confident of staying in the upper half of the channel in which it is travelling. On last 3 occasions Nifty has jumped upon reaching the mid channel support of the mid channel line. Indicating that strength of the rally is intact so far.
However, on the last 4 occasions when Nifty tried to cross the Channel top it was made to retreat indicating a strong channel top resistance.
Nifty Resistances going further will be: 18455 and 18500.
Nifty Supports going further will be at: 18384, 18284, 18267 (Very Strong Support).
Nifty 15May23 to 19May23 ST,MT & LT-Chart Cleaned for VisibilityNifty 15 May 23 to 19 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 18314 ( 18069) and touched low of 18100.
Nifty touched high of 18389.
Mainly followed the band resistance provided for last two weeks ( as mentioned below) and 3-4 days the resistance acted as support.
Nifty support at 18111/18204/18274 ( Prev Highs Shown in thick red , blue and green horizontal lines)
RSI ,MACD and Stochastic are at 69%, 210 and 92%
KN Election results will play small setback in the indices, might drop to the the support level provided in the coming week in initial trading sessions.
However after small consolidation it will again try to attempt to surpass 18465/ 18600 /18900 in the Medium term.
Nifty- short term is Neutral to Long.
Need to decisively close above 18274 to reach targets ext target at 18437/18465 ( fibonacci resitances) .
Nifty support at 18111/18204/18274
Buy on Dip
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18274 to reach next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement)/ 18640/ followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty have multiple support for Medium Term - 17865/17741 ( Previous Highs) and 17560 ( April Low)
Below that 17387- 17340/ 17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
17208/17180//17000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT (Buy on dip)
Nifty 15 May 23 to 19 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 15 May 23 to 19 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 18314 ( 18069) and touched low of 18100.
Nifty touched high of 18389.
Mainly followed the band resistance provided for last two weeks ( as mentioned below) and 3-4 days the resistance acted as support.
Nifty support at 18111/18204/18274 ( Prev Highs Shown in thick red , blue and green horizontal lines)
RSI ,MACD and Stochastic are at 69%, 210 and 92%
KN Election results will play small setback in the indices, might drop to the the support level provided in the coming week in initial trading sessions.
However after small consolidation it will again try to attempt to surpass 18465/ 18600 /18900 in the Medium term.
Nifty- short term is Neutral to Long.
Need to decisively close above 18274 to reach targets ext target at 18437/18465 ( fibonacci resitances) .
Nifty support at 18111/18204/18274
Buy on Dip
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18274 to reach next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement)/ 18640/ followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty have multiple support for Medium Term - 17865/17741 ( Previous Highs) and 17560 ( April Low)
Below that 17387- 17340/ 17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
17208/17180//17000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT (Buy on dip)
Nifty Short Term Outlook NIFTY is approximately 3% away from the top. Question on minds of most investors is: When will Nifty make a new high by crossing this Crossing this 3% hurdle. Crossing this 3% hurdle will not be easy in my opinion, unless all FII, DII and Retail investors participate in the ongoing rally. Rally has hit the resistance zone now.
It was a good week but going ahead Nifty will have to conquer 4 major resistances. These 4 Resistances are at 18393, 18474, 18609 and 18715. In case these resistances are not crossed there are chances of rally to fizzle out with supports at 18185 and 18053. 18053 is a major support.
Below 18053 bears will start calling shots. If we get a weekly closing below 18053 the next support zone will be between 17793 and 17529 (Final Major support). Below 17529 bears will be in full control again.
Nifty Facing Resistance Zones.Nifty had a fantastic rally which might hit couple of hurdles in the form of upcoming resistance zones.
Resistance Zone R1 which is between 18283 and 18427. If this major hurdle is crossed there is another Resistance Zone R2 to be crossed which is between 18608 and 18715.
Support for Nifty will be at 18130, 18049, 17966, 17848 and finally 17794.
Nifty 08 May 23 to 12 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 08 May 23 to 12 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty closed at 18069 ( 18090) and touched low of 18042
Nifty touched high of 1827.
Mainly followed the band resistance provided last week ( as mentioned below) due to awaiting of FED decision and followed by drop on last day due to HDFC stocks.
Nifty small Resistances at 18111/18204/18274 ( Prev Highs Shown in thick red , blue and green horizontal lines)
RSI ,MACD and Stochastic are at 62% fall from 75%
So far Q4 have mixed results.
Nifty- short term is Neutral to Long.
Need to decisively close above 18274 to reach targets ext target at 184372/18465 ( fibonacci resitances) .
Nifty small Resistances at 18111/18204/18274
Nifty support at 17869/177741 ( Previous Highs) and 17570/17530 (Inclined two trend line)
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18274 , next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement) followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty Support at 17387- 17340/ 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT ( Buy on dip)
Will Reverse Head & Shoulders Breakout be a success? Market Outlook:
Nifty is on a roll and taking all the negative news under it’s wings and rising like a phoenix. The Mother of all bi-monthly economic events FOMC meet and decision on US Federal Reserve rate hike/Pause and US Fed chief Powell’s comments about the future rate decisions awaits to test its resolve. A positive looking Reverse Head & Shoulder like structure is formed on Nifty Chart as you can see below. We will know later this week if the Reverse Head and Shoulder Breakout is successful or not.
One thing is for sure that corrections are temporary but Indian economy, it’s strength remains intact. It may take time but Indian Indices do bounce back. Long Term Investors should trust the story of India and continue to invest for long term irrespective of whether the current Breakout or current rally sustains or not.
Nifty Supports From Current Level: 18124, 17966, 17888 and 17632.
Nifty Resistances from Current Level: 18180, 18252 and 18441.
Nifty 02 May 23 to 5 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 02 May 23 to 5 May 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 18090 ( 17865) and touched low of 17610
Nifty closed at 18065 (Prev Close 17627).
Nifty crossed the key 17867 Resistance last week ( as mentioned in last week analysis) and touched above 18000, which shows a positive sign.
RSI ,MACD and Stochastic are above 75% and green zone.
Q4 results are being announced and many companies posted good results.
As expected Banks and NBFCs are posting good results. Can be bought for Medium term. Nifty Bank already gave good returns ( +7%) in the last 1 month as mentioned in previous reports.
Nifty- short term is Long.
Nifty small Resistances at 18111/18204/18274 ( Prev Highs Shown in thick red , blue and green horizontal lines)
Above these resistances next target at 184372/18465 ( fibonacci resitances)
Nifty support at 17570/17530 (Inclined two trend line)
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18274 , next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement) followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty Support at 17387- 17340/ 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT ( Buy on dip)
Strength of the rally to be tested next week.After the much awaited break out of Nifty which was playing in the range between 17900 and 16900 it is the time for the strength of the rally to be tested. Nifty has to battle some important resistance next week to sail further upwards. All eyes will also be on FOMC meet of US Federal Reserves on 2nd May 2023. I don't want to sound pessimistic but everyone should note that this event has potential to become a party spoiler. (Looks less likely though as rally has crossed some important resistances but you can never really decouple your economy from what happens globally).
Important Supports For The next week: 17973, 17878, 17779 and finally the strong buffer zone of 17473 to 17687. (This buffer zone has multiple supports including 50 Weeks EMA, 50 and 200 days EMA in addition to some other supports).
Important Resistances: 18140, 18268, 18397 and 18481.
WHY NIFTY WENT UPWARDS TODAY, HERE'S WHY - 26/04/23 Nifty took support from the support line tested by previous day support & day before yesterday's strong resistance after the opening of the day and consequently went upwards a lot due to the support line being very strong due to presence of multiple support & resistances on the last 2 days
After that it took resistance from a previous day resistance line and consolidated a lot in the second half
But the resistance line being weak due to the presence of only one earlier resistance it was breached during the end of the day and nifty went upwards again
Precision of the chart. Look at the yellow circle. The blue line is exactly where the Nifty stopped. That is a strong resistance crossing this resistance we may face next resistance at 17863. Supports on the lower side are the same are 17552 and 17532. If 17532 is broken we may see the levels of 17467 and 17198. For Now everything looks good. Above 17863 we will see resistance near 18092 and 18360. (View remains the same). Nifty following this chart.
Morning Mantra - 25th April 2023Dear All,
It was an amazing day yesterday . Wherein, we had observed that after a gap up opening of 17707, Nifty had made a day’s low of 17612 and had thereafter made a sharp recovery from that level.
Overall on the hourly chart of Nifty, we can now observe a head & shoulder formation . Wherein, the level of 17800 can be considered as its neckline . Above this level of 17800, we can see Nifty for the level 18134 approx in the near term.
Until the time we witness a closing of above 17800, we are still with our words to keep following the Cherry-picking strategy with the stop loss of 17300 , as of now.
Besides, the conservative players can go for fresh accumulation only after witnessing a beautiful and a strong closing of above 17800 .
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty 24 Apr 23 to 02 May 23 ST,MT, LT reviewNifty 24 Apr 23 to 2 Mayr 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17865 just below the resistance mentioned last week ( 17867) and touched low of 17577
Nifty closed at 17624 (Prev Close 17828).
RSI, 66 % and dropped to 55%. MACD is above MACD signal and Stochastic touched 100% and dipped to 75% from last week.
Nifty- short term is PNeutral.
Nifty small Resistances at 17859 ( Fibonacci 50% retracement)/17867 ( Inclined Trend Line Resistances )
Above these resistances next target at 18000/18100
Nifty support at 17570/17530/17387- 17340 for the week ( Inclined two trend line)
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18217 , next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement) followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty Support at 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT
Nifty at a critical support. 50 and 200 days EMA have been providing a critical support to Nifty all throughout the week. 50 and 200 days EMA stand at 17544 and 17530 respectively. This zone has provided support to the Nifty almost on all days of the week proving that it is the most critical support. If this support is broken Next support for Nifty will be only at 17406 and further down at 17204 levels. However if Nifty is assured of its support the chances are that it can rise from here. The resistances that it can meet on the way up are near 17805, 17869, 18092 and 18261 levels.
Nifty with positive bias poised just below 50 Hours EMA. With the result from Big Daddy of Index Reliance tomorrow Nifty is again staring at the cross roads but with a positive bias. Reliance has a weightage of 10.54% in the index and a good result can make the day or week for the Nifty or break it. Nifty is poised just below 50 hours EMA which is 17630 so the line will act as a resistance. If we get a gap up opening above it and the gap sustains it will be a perfect scenario for the rally to go forward. Resistances at 17630, 17691 and 17772. Supports for Nifty are at 17593 and 17578. Below this level Nifty can fall to 17488 levels. (This should be a major support). If this is broken the current rally may fizzle out.
Channel Breakout of the trend is being tested. Recently Nifty on 10th April gave a channel Breakout. Since the negative channel upper limit was respected in last 4 months or so this breakout was a major first step towards up trend. Since it was a major breakout Nifty is trying to look back and test it's support zone before it can fly ahead. Major supports zones from where Nifty can re start the up trend again are:
Support Zone 1: 17618 (current level) to 17528.
Support Zone 2: 17424 to 17267. (A close below 17267 will make this current Channel Break out that Nifty saw on 10th April 2023 a failure).
Resistance Zone 1: 17690 to 17856.
Resistance Zone 2: 17856 to 18004.
Nifty 17 Apr 23 to 21 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 17 Apr 23 to 21 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17638 and low of 17610.
Nifty closed at 17828 (Prev Close 17601).
Nifty Crossed crucial resistance of 17690 last week.
Medium Term call for buy on dips worked well
Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty 50 increased by 5% from low. Especially Nifty bank surpassed ( 7.5%) other indices.
Buy call was given for all the above indices a month back on dips.
RSI, stochastic and MACD in near top zone.
Nifty- short term is Positive.
Nifty small Resistances at 17859 ( Fibonacci 50% retracement)/17867 ( Inclined Trend Line Resistances )
Above these resistances next target at 18000/18100
Nifty firm support at 17500-17457
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above first target 18217 , next target of 18437 ( Fibonacci 0.786 Retracement) followed by prev high 18890.
Nifty Support at 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Need to decisively close above 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High) to reach targets of 19000/19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT
Nifty Facing Key Resistance Zone of 17700 to 17797 Nifty has reached the zone where the strength of current rally will be tested. The zone between 17700 and 17797 will be strong resistance zones for Nifty. Only if the rally has genuine strength it can cross this zone. If this resistance zone is crossed the next resistances will be at 17923, 18038 and 18137. Supports for Nifty remain at the levels of 17597, 17533, 17460. The strongest supports for the current rally will be and 17414 and 17363 which are 50 and 200 hours EMA. Below 17363 bears will snatch back the control of the market.
Nifty 10 Apr 23 to 13 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long TermNifty 10 Apr 23 to 13 Apr 23 Short ,Medium and Long Term
Nifty touched a high of 17638 and low of 17310.
Nifty closed at 17599 (Prev Close 17359).
Global Economy is reversing but lot of agencies have given cautious & weakest growth % of 2-3% for next 5 years.
Interest rate are at peak and signs of reversal and inflation are reducing.
But Threat of Geopolitical Tension still there.
Markets have raised last week above the initial resistances, moved past MA 200 & MA 50.
Medium Term buy on Dip worked well
Nifty Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty 50 increased by 2-5% from low. Especially bank surpassed other indices.
RSI, stochastic and MACD recovered & crossed above 50% the MA and moving up.
Nifty (16945) short term is Positive.
Nifty Resistance at 17699/17650 (Shown in Green Color Declining Trend Line Resistances )
Above these resistances next resistance are at 17818/17860( Fibonacci Resistances )
Nifty immediate support at 17500-17457
Nifty Medium Term -
Nifty need to break decisively above 17860 ( Fibonacci Retracement) to move past 18000/18205.
There is a chance of reversal from the peak, depends on the global situation.
Nifty Support at 17180/17200/17252
Long term-
Above 18265 Target Nifty 18890 ( Previous Dec22 High)
Need to decisively close above 18890 to reach targets of 19500/20000
long term support at 16746 ( Sep22 Low)
In case if it falls below then next major support at 16300, then market may go down to 15900.
Long term Investors can accumulate following Mutual Funds
NIFTY 50 Equal weight
Bank Nifty
Nifty IT
just a normal correction and a shakeout there is no reason to panic as of now it is just a normal correction after a big move nifty can easily take support at 18150/18100 levels and a bigger but normal correction will take it to 17600/ 17800 levels easily however if the fall is not a sharp one the overall market may remain good that is that the small cap and midcaps will keep on going strong as they have been punished too much in the near past it will be much better for the bulls that nifty takes support from 18150 levels lets see how it unfolds however the short term outlook for the index is not very bullish until it take support from a point and then shows strength most positive outlook in my view is it takes support from 18150 levels and make bullish move from there