NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)📉 NVDA Swing Trade – Overbought Reversal Setup (June 12, 2025)
Ticker: NASDAQ:NVDA | Bias: 🔻 Moderately Bearish
Strategy: Short-Term Swing | Timeframe: ~2 weeks
Confidence: 75% | Entry Timing: Market Open
Expiry: June 27, 2025
🔍 Market & Technical Snapshot
• Price: ~$144.67
• Trend: Weekly and M15 uptrend still intact
• RSI (Daily): ~70.63 → Overbought
• MACD: Bearish crossover on Daily
• Options Data:
– Heavy put OI at $140 (14,803 contracts)
– Max pain at $135 → potential pull lower
– High call OI at $145–$150 caps upside
🧠 AI Model Breakdown
🔼 Grok/xAI (Bullish Swing):
• Calls out strong technicals, 5-min momentum
• Suggests $155C for upside play
🔽 DeepSeek (Bearish Swing – Preferred):
• Overbought daily RSI + bearish MACD
• Strong put volume + options market pressure
• Targets pullback to $138–$140 → PUT @ $140
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
🎯 Direction: PUT
📍 Strike: $140
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-27
💵 Entry Price: $2.09
🎯 Profit Target: $3.10 (+48%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $1.25 (–40%)
📈 Confidence: 75%
📏 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
⚠️ Risk Considerations
• Weekly chart still bullish → risk of trend continuation
• Low VIX (17.26) = slower option premium movement
• Positive news surprise could cause upside gap
• Use tight risk controls and monitor intraday structure
💭 NASDAQ:NVDA : Extended or just gearing up for another breakout?
📉 Drop your play below — Put buyers vs. breakout chasers 👇
Nvda_analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis on NVDA (Chicken Nugget) soonFundamental Analysis
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) remains a key player in the tech sector, benefiting from the rise of artificial intelligence, data centers, and gaming. With sustained growth, constant innovation, and strong demand for its graphics chips, the company continues to deliver solid financial results.
Recent reports indicate revenue growth and expansion in key markets. Product diversification, particularly in supercomputers and embedded systems, strengthens NVDA’s position against competitors. Investor interest in the semiconductor industry helps maintain the stock’s positive momentum.
Technical Analysis
The chart analysis highlights key technical levels for investors:
- Key Resistance: $150 USD – This level must be broken to confirm a strong bullish trend. A breakout with volume could signal a gradual rise toward higher targets.
- Support Level: $131.50 USD – Strong demand and low supply are identified at this level, making it an excellent entry point for investors looking for buying opportunities before a potential rebound.
Targets & Strategy
- Short-term target (late June/early July): The target range of $170-$175 USD is possible if the bullish trend is confirmed. This level aligns with technical extensions and favorable market dynamics.
- July buyback (-5% to -10%): A moderate correction could occur, offering another buying opportunity before an upward recovery.
- Selling target (September to November): The next selling target is between $200-$240 USD, depending on market developments and investor sentiment.
Conclusion
NVDA stock presents interesting prospects, with well-defined technical levels and a strong fundamental outlook. Investors should monitor these thresholds to adjust their strategy based on market fluctuations.
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NVDA 4-hr Outlook1. Swept Weekly High with draw back into 4-hr gap up.
2. If price breaks below here, my target becomes the re-test of the 4-hr break due to the impulse move through that high.
a. WARNING: Need to watch for support on Weekly FVG and CE of 4-hr wick and support off .382 fib.
b. If target breaks below, then I would like long puts or sell calls into re-test of break as it shows rejection on the .25 fib line.
3. As we re-test this area I would like to see full support into the .50 fib/FVG.
a. Why? Confluence with FVG and Fib
b. Want to see a hammer style candle indicating support
My buy view for NVDAMy buy view for NVDA.
Nvidia has made a significant push up after the meltdown following the new US tariff news.
The push-up is likely cooling off for this baby.
If the current consolidation continues to be sustained by the support zone (TL) in this zone, we are likely to see NVDA rally to $149 and $152 as TP1 and TP2, respectively.
My SL will be around $128.9 zone for both.
RR of 1:4 and 1:4.8
Trade with care
Potential Reversal Zone for NVDAThis chart of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of June 3, 2025, shows a technical analysis scenario forecasting a possible bearish reversal. The price action, zones, and arrows suggest a setup based on supply and demand zones.
Key Elements in the Chart:
🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
Location: Around $141.73 to ~$144
Observation: The price recently entered this red-shaded area, indicating strong historical resistance.
Implication: The area is expected to act as a ceiling, where sellers may overwhelm buyers, causing a reversal.
⚫ Price Reaction:
The chart shows price approaching and briefly piercing the supply zone, followed by a bearish candle or rejection (as indicated by the top arrow).
Arrows project a downward movement, suggesting bearish sentiment.
🟢 Demand Zone (Support Area)
Location: Approximately $114–$121
Observation: This green-shaded area acted as a base for a previous upward move.
Implication: It is likely to act as a strong support if the price drops significantly.
Projected Price Path:
Short-term reversal from the resistance zone (~$144).
Initial drop to mid $130s (likely a lower high or minor support).
Continuation to demand zone around $116, completing the projected bearish move.
Technical Interpretation:
This setup is a classic supply and demand reversal strategy.
Confirmation of the short setup may require:
A clear rejection candle at resistance.
Break of minor support levels on the way down.
Risk for bulls is high near resistance; short sellers may find opportunities targeting the demand zone.
NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025📉 NVDA Weekly Options Outlook — June 1, 2025
🚨 AI Model Consensus: Lean Bearish Into 6/6 Expiry
🧠 Model Breakdown
🔹 Grok (xAI)
Bias: Short-term bullish (above 10/50 EMA on M5), but below 200 EMA.
Indicators: RSI ~63, MACD weakening on daily.
Sentiment: Falling VIX + AI buzz, but $133 max pain caps upside.
Trade: Buy $141C @ ~$0.94 → Target +50%, SL 50%
Confidence: 70%
🔹 Claude (Anthropic)
Bias: Slightly bullish.
Indicators: Price above 10EMA, below 200EMA; MACD weak, RSI neutral.
Sentiment: Call/put OI split, max pain $133.
Trade: Buy $140C @ $0.96 → Target +55–75%, SL $0.50
Confidence: 72%
🔹 Gemini (Google)
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: Bearish MACD crossover; upper Bollinger rejection.
Sentiment: Positive news priced in.
Trade: Buy $128P @ $0.73 → Target +75–100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
🔹 Llama (Meta)
Bias: Moderately bearish.
Indicators: MACD fading; under EMAs on M5.
Trade: Buy $133P → Target +50%, SL above $136.35
Confidence: 70%
🔹 DeepSeek
Bias: Bearish.
Indicators: MACD bearish crossover; momentum fading.
Trade: Buy $132P @ $1.65 → Target +100%, SL 50%
Confidence: 65%
✅ Consensus Takeaways
🎯 Max Pain: $133 is the focal level across all models.
🟢 VIX down; sentiment positive, but momentum fading.
📉 Daily MACD across models turning bearish.
⚠️ Bullish calls (Grok/Claude) vs. bearish puts (Gemini/Llama/DeepSeek).
🔍 Recommended Trade This Week
💡 Bearish Play: NVDA Weekly Put (Exp: 2025-06-06)
💵 Entry: $1.66
🎯 Target: $2.49 (+50%)
🛑 Stop: $0.83 (−50%)
🔢 Size: 1 contract
⏰ Entry Timing: Market open (Monday)
📈 Confidence: 65%
⚠️ Risks to Watch
🚀 AI catalyst could reverse thesis and rally price fast
⏳ Time decay will eat premium—move needed early
🕳️ Opening gaps could get filled fast—use limit orders
🔄 Max pain ≠ magnetic level—watch price action around $133 closely
📊 TRADE DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 132.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-06",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 2.49,
"stop_loss": 0.83,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 1.66,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-02 09:30:00 UTC-04:00"
}
NVIDIA Stock Weekly Outlook: Support Holds Strong as $185 TargetThe weekly chart of NVDA shows a strong continuation pattern forming after a period of consolidation and a healthy pullback. The recent price action confirms a bullish stance, with a fresh bounce off support and momentum gradually shifting in favor of the bulls.
________________________________________
Long-Term Uptrend Confirmed
The blue ascending trendline drawn from early 2023 remains intact, showing that the overall trend is still bullish. NVDA has respected this trendline multiple times, with each touch followed by a renewed upward move. This week, the price rebounded once again near this trendline, confirming its role as dynamic support and signaling renewed buying interest.
________________________________________
Resistance and Breakout Potential
The key resistance level is marked at $152.98, which represents the recent weekly high and a psychological barrier. This level has acted as a ceiling in past attempts, but the current structure and momentum suggest a potential breakout if volume confirms. Above this level, there's clear air up to $185, where the next major resistance sits, and which also acts as the projected target in this trade setup.
________________________________________
Support Holding Strong
A strong support zone around $93.40 is clearly defined and has already triggered multiple rejections. NVDA recently saw a sharp bounce from this zone after a downward rejection, signaling that institutional buyers may be active here. This area is the foundation of the current bullish case.
________________________________________
Momentum Turning Favorably
The True Strength Index (TSI), shown at the bottom of the chart, is emerging from a low region. While not yet fully bullish, the indicator is starting to turn upward, suggesting early signs of momentum building. If TSI crosses above the midline in coming weeks, it could confirm the start of a sustained upward move.
________________________________________
Trade Setup
• Entry Zone: $138 to $140 (current price range)
• Stop-Loss: $110 (beneath the last significant swing low)
• Target: $185 (aligns with the next major resistance and top of risk-reward box)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1.5:1
• Setup Bias: Swing to mid-term bullish continuation
________________________________________
Conclusion
NVIDIA’s weekly chart is aligning in favor of the bulls after a healthy consolidation and support retest. The price remains within a strong uptrend channel, and momentum is gradually improving. A breakout above $152.98 would likely attract more volume and set the stage for a rally toward $185. The risk-reward setup is favorable, making this a strong candidate for bullish swing positioning heading into Q3 2025.
Nvidia Stock Price Rises Over 4% Following Earnings ReportNvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Rises Over 4% Following Earnings Report
Yesterday, after the main trading session, Nvidia released its quarterly earnings report, which exceeded analysts' expectations:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $0.81, forecast = $0.73
→ Revenue: actual = $44 billion, forecast = $43.3 billion
Additionally, according to media reports, Nvidia issued a strong forecast for the next period, although CEO Jensen Huang noted difficulties in accessing the Chinese market, which he estimates to be worth $50 billion.
Nevertheless, market participants reacted positively. According to Google, in after-hours trading the NVDA stock price rose by more than 4%, surpassing the $140 level.
It is reasonable to assume that this initial positive reaction could continue during today’s main trading session.
Technical Analysis of NVDA Chart
As we mentioned earlier this week, NVDA stock in 2025 has formed a broad descending channel (shown in red), and just before the earnings release, the price was consolidating near the upper boundary of this channel.
We also suggested a scenario in which the bulls might attempt to break through the upper boundary of the channel. Given the positive earnings report and the stock market rally following the Federal Court’s decision declaring Trump tariffs invalid, the likelihood of this scenario increases.
This, in turn, means that:
→ the upper boundary of the channel, once broken, may act as support;
→ we may once again see the key psychological resistance level of $150 come into play — a level we have highlighted multiple times before.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
What’s Happening with Nvidia (NVDA) Ahead of Earnings?What’s Happening with Nvidia (NVDA) Ahead of Earnings?
After an extended weekend due to Veterans Day in the US (observed on Monday), financial markets are returning to active trading. The highlight of the week will be Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, scheduled for Wednesday after the close of the main trading session.
What You Need to Know Ahead of Nvidia’s Earnings
According to media reports, market participants are concerned about:
→ escalating trade tensions between the US and China;
→ increasing competition;
→ Nvidia’s premium pricing at a time when the GPU market is shifting towards more affordable alternatives;
→ downward revisions to earnings per share, which some interpret as a sign that Nvidia’s report may fall short of expectations.
On the other hand, Reuters reports that Nvidia is set to unveil a new processor that:
→ is designed specifically for AI applications;
→ is based on the Blackwell architecture;
→ will not be subject to US export restrictions on chips sent to China;
→ is expected to be cost-effective.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Stock
Today’s NVDA price chart suggests that the descending channel (marked in red) may be forming a large bullish flag — a continuation pattern that typically indicates a potential resumption of the uptrend after a corrective phase.
Price action in Nvidia stock has slowed near the upper boundary of the channel — a sign of temporary equilibrium between supply and demand (this could also be interpreted as traders adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the earnings release).
Given that the earnings report is a potentially strong price catalyst, a breakout from the bullish flag cannot be ruled out. Such a move could signal the start of a new phase in NVDA’s long-term upward trend (as indicated by the arrow on the chart).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-25NVDA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-25)
Model Summaries Grok/xAI: Mixed technical signals—bullish on daily, bearish on 5-minute; neutral overall; no trade recommended (55% confidence). Claude/Anthropic: Moderately bearish; recommends buying the $128 put at ~$3.60 for a 50–100% profit target; confidence 72%. Llama/Meta: Moderately bearish but views premium/risk as unfavorable for buying; instead suggests selling the $130 put; confidence 70%. Gemini/Google: Strong intraday bearish technicals and negative sentiment; recommends buying the $120 put at ~$1.24 as a day trade; confidence 65%. DeepSeek: Moderately bearish but sees premiums >$1 as too rich; no trade recommended (55% confidence). Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: • Overall moderately bearish bias for NVDA into weekly expiry. • Rising VIX, max-pain near $126, and negative news support downside. Disagreement: • Trade/no-trade: Grok and DeepSeek pass, Claude, Gemini and Llama propose trades. • Strike selection: Claude prefers $128 put; Gemini $120 put; Llama sells $130 put. • Strategy type: All bearish ideas are buy puts except Llama, which suggests naked put selling. Conclusion Overall Market Direction: Moderately Bearish for the week ending 2025-05-30. Recommended Trade: Buy a weekly put to capture the expected pull toward the $126 max-pain level. • Instrument: NVDA 2025-05-30 $128 Put • Entry Timing: At market open • Entry Price: $3.65 (ask) • Profit Target: $5.48 (≈50% gain ⇒ midpoint sell or scale) • Stop Loss: $2.56 (≈30% loss) • Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 70% Key Risks and Considerations: • Intraday oversold conditions could trigger a short-term bounce. • Theta decay accelerates late in the week—need timely exit. • Holiday-shortened week may damp momentum. • Liquidity is good at the $128 strike but bid-ask spread and slippage can impact execution.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "NVDA", "direction": "put", "strike": 128.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 5.48, "stop_loss": 2.56, "size": 1, "entry_price": 3.65, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 10:57:51 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: NVDA 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 128.00 💵 Entry Price: 3.65 🎯 Profit Target: 5.48 🛑 Stop Loss: 2.56 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-25 10:58:05 EDT
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
SHORT | NVDANASDAQ:NVDA
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
Price: $131.80
Recent Drop: -2.58 (-1.92%)
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $134.70 to $138.83
This red zone represents a strong supply area where the price has historically faced selling pressure.
Immediate Support: $122.74 (Target Price 1)
Further Supports:
Target Price 2: $116.65 (Aligned with 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement)
Target Price 3: $108.38 (Previous structural low)
Trendlines:
Red Uptrend Line: Recently broken, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Green Downtrend Line: Long-term resistance trendline from the previous Lower Highs (LH) is still intact and respected.
The break below the minor trendline suggests a corrective wave (4) might be in motion.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.382 Fib Retracement: $121.22
0.5 Fib Retracement: $116.22
These levels align with potential targets in a wave (4) corrective phase according to Elliott Wave theory.
Target Prices:
Target Price 1: $122.74
This is the closest demand zone and aligns with the 0.382 retracement—high-probability support.
Target Price 2: $116.65
Aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and previous consolidation.
Target Price 3: $108.38
A major structural support and potential wave (4) bottom if market turns sharply bearish.
Summary:
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is showing early signs of a corrective phase after failing to break through strong resistance in the $134–$138 range. The price rejected the resistance zone and is likely entering wave (4) correction. Key support levels to monitor are $122.74, $116.65, and $108.38, corresponding with Fibonacci retracement levels and historical price structure. A break below the short-term trendline increases the probability of a continued pullback before potentially resuming the uptrend in wave (5).
Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Jumps Over 5%Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Jumps Over 5%
Nvidia (NVDA) shares surged to the $130 mark yesterday – a level not seen since late February 2025. This strong rise, marked by a wide bullish candlestick, helped Nvidia reclaim its status as a company valued at over $3 trillion.
Why Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Are Rising
The bullish sentiment has been driven by several factors, including:
→ Price increases on products: Nvidia has raised prices on its graphics cards and data centre chips. The GeForce RTX 5090 has risen by more than 10%, while the RTX 50 series is up by 5–10%.
→ News of a major contract: The company will supply chips to an AI start-up backed by Saudi Arabia. In addition, media reports suggest that the US government is considering a deal allowing the UAE to purchase up to 500,000 Nvidia chips annually until 2027.
All of this could positively impact Nvidia’s revenue, encouraging investors to buy NVDA shares.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Chart
Yesterday’s sharp rally suggests a breakout from the descending channel (marked in red), which had remained in place since late last year.
The breakout occurred near the $123 level, which had previously acted as resistance. It is therefore possible that if there is a pullback in the NVDA stock price, this level could act as support (“breakout retest” pattern), confirming the breakdown of the descending channel and strengthening the outlook for further growth.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-07NVDA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-07)
Model Summaries
Grok/xAI Report
Technicals: Price $117.06 above all key EMAs; bullish MACD on 5-min and daily; RSI overbought short-term (75) but neutral daily (59); trading near upper Bollinger Bands. Sentiment: VIX elevated at 24.76; mixed news (AI rally vs. supply delays); max pain at $111 suggests some bearish undertone. Direction: Moderately bullish with caution for pullback. Trade: Buy naked $113 put (premium $0.59) anticipating pullback, stop if $119 breach, target 25–50% gain, 65% confidence.
Claude/Anthropic Report
Technicals: Strong intraday uptrend; bullish MACD and RSI neutral daily; immediate resistance at $117.68. Sentiment: Sector tailwinds, positive news, but VIX elevated and max pain at $111. Direction: Moderately bullish. Trade: Buy $121 call at $0.75, profit target 100% ($1.50), stop-loss 40% ($0.45), 65% confidence.
Llama/Meta Report
Technicals: Bullish MACD, overbought short-term RSI, mixed reversal risk. Sentiment: Mixed news; VIX rising; max pain theory. Direction: Moderately bullish but immediate entry risky—overbought, mixed signals. Trade: No trade recommended at open (confidence <60%).
DeepSeek Report
Technicals: Bullish breakout, expanding bands, RSI overbought M5 but room on daily. Sentiment: Positive AI policy news; VIX manageable; max pain unlikely to derail strong technicals. Direction: Strongly bullish (70% confidence). Trade: Buy $122 call at $0.56, target $1.12, stop if $115.86 break, size 3–5% of capital.
Gemini/Google Report
Technicals: Strong uptrend but very overbought short-term. Sentiment: Mixed news with supply concerns; VIX rising; max pain $111 adds caution. Direction: Neutral/unclear for immediate trade (confidence <60%). Trade: No trade recommended at market open. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
Agreements
All models see a strong intraday and daily uptrend with price above key EMAs and bullish MACD. Short-term RSI is overbought, suggesting potential for pullback or consolidation. VIX is elevated (~24.8), signaling caution. Max pain at $111 introduces a bearish tether toward expiration.
Disagreements
Trade selection: Grok favors a bearish put; Claude, DeepSeek favor bullish calls; Llama and Gemini hold off. Confidence: DeepSeek is most bullish (70%), Grok and Claude are moderately bullish (65%), Llama and Gemini see too many conflicting signals for immediate action. Strike selection varies widely: $113 put, $121 call, $122 call, or no trade. Conclusion
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately bullish for the week, with elevated short-term risk of pullback.
Recommended Trade
Strategy: Single-leg naked call Instrument: NVDA weekly options (expiry 2025-05-09) Strike: $122.00 Call Premium: ~ $0.56 Entry Timing: At market open Profit Target: $1.12 (100% gain) Stop-Loss: $0.34 (40% loss) Confidence: 70%
Key Risks and Considerations
M5 RSI overbought (75) risks a short-term pullback. Elevated/rising VIX may induce whipsaws. Max pain suggests potential downward drift into expiration. Monitor any fresh supply-chain or sector news at open.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "NVDA", "direction": "call", "strike": 122.0, "expiry": "2025-05-09", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.12, "stop_loss": 0.34, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.56, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-07 20:16:47 UTC-04:00" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Nvidia Shows Signs of Recovery -but the Bearish Channel Remains Over the last five trading sessions, Nvidia’s stock has gained more than 9%, and short-term bullish momentum remains intact as the tech giant appears to benefit from expectations of a potential easing in trade war tariffs. Notably, the company’s CEO, Jensen Huang, recently stated that the Chinese market for artificial intelligence chips could reach $50 billion within the next two years — highlighting the importance of maintaining access to this market. This reinforces the view that a diplomatic resolution to the trade conflict is crucial for Nvidia to sustain a steady recovery.
It’s also important to note that Nvidia is scheduled to release its next earnings report on May 28, with market expectations pointing to earnings of approximately $0.88 per share. Should results meet or exceed projections, this could reignite a bullish sentiment that has been largely absent from the stock over the past several months.
Bearish channel still in play:
Since early January of this year, Nvidia’s stock has formed a steady downward channel, pushing the price even below the $100 mark at times. While a consistent upward correction is underway, it remains insufficient to confirm a definitive breakout, meaning this bearish channel is still the dominant technical structure in the short term.
ADX:
The ADX indicator has been fluctuating below the neutral 20 level, signaling a decline in volatility over the average of the last 14 sessions. As long as this continues, the current phase of price neutrality may persist.
RSI:
The RSI is showing a similar picture, hovering near the 50 level — indicating a balance between buying and selling momentum in recent sessions, and reinforcing the lack of a clear short-term trend.
Key levels to watch:
$113: Current resistance level, aligned with the upper bound of the bearish channel and the 50-period simple moving average. Continued price action in this area may extend the current phase of consolidation.
$125: A critical resistance point tied to the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout toward this level could signal the end of the bearish channel.
$100: A key psychological support level in the short term. A move below this threshold could reinforce the bearish bias and trigger a deeper downtrend within the current price structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
My buy view for NVIDIA stock explained My buy view for NVDA.
If positive fundamentals continue to outweigh bad news, we are likely to see NVDA push further up towards $120, $130, $140, and then its previous peak of $150.
Trade with care if you are day trading, but this baby is still selling at discount in my view
Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX.
With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally.
Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday.
We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
$NVDA forming local higher low and above 20-Day SMA NASDAQ:NVDA has traded very poorly recently. Today we are looking at a daily price chart of NASDAQ:NVDA and we have seen many lower lows and lower highs since GTC Conference. After touching the ATH of 150 $, the price is making new lows and has recently touched the lows of 85 $ and made new higher low of 95 $. So, this marks a double higher bottom and now the at 105 $ is now above 20 Day SMA. This might mark a bullish reversal in my opinion.
So why not a trade idea on a Friday. #TGIF. I say we go long NASDAQ:NVDA here and now. Remain long if it remains over the 50-Day, 100-Day and 200-Day SMA. 200-Day SMA ist currently @ 125 $. If NVDA has a weekly close above 125 $ then we go all in on $NVDA.
Verdict: Long NASDAQ:NVDA here until 125 $. Keep watching this space for next levels.
cup with handle pattern on the 1-hour time frameWelcome to today's analysis! Let’s break down the current price action on NASDAQ:NVDA and potential trade setups.
🌐 Overview: NASDAQ:NVDA Forming a Cup with Handle Pattern
📈 NASDAQ:NVDA is currently forming a cup with handle pattern on the 1-hour time frame. This pattern is typically bullish and could indicate a potential upward move.
🔄 Current Scenario:
NASDAQ:NVDA has formed a cup shape and is now developing the handle. The handle is a consolidation phase before a potential breakout.
The key level to watch is the resistance at the top of the handle. A breakout above this level could signal a bullish continuation.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
🔴 Resistance: Top of the Handle (Needs breakout for continuation)
🟢 Target: Measured move equal to the depth of the cup, projected from the breakout point.
🛠️ Trade Scenarios
📌 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Above Resistance)
If NASDAQ:NVDA breaks and holds above the handle resistance, it could move toward the target level.
This breakout would confirm the cup with handle pattern and suggest a potential upward trend.
📌 Bearish Scenario (Failure to Breakout)
If NASDAQ:NVDA fails to break out and instead moves lower, it could retest the support levels within the cup or handle.
A failure to hold above key support levels could indicate a potential reversal or further consolidation.
📌 Conclusion
NASDAQ:NVDA is forming a cup with handle pattern on the 1-hour time frame. A breakout above the handle resistance could signal a bullish move toward the target level. If the price fails to break out, further consolidation or a retest of support levels may be necessary.
NVDA’s Wild Crash Alert: I’m Braced for a Heart-Stopping Drop!NVDA’s like a rocket losing altitude, and I’m on edge! It’s at $95.99, but I’m seeing it tumble to $90, maybe $88.95, then $83.59 if the bears go wild. If that breaks, whoa—$77.48 could hit hard! I’m glued to $90 for the first clue—big selling there, and it’s game on for a slide.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
NVDA: Buy the Dip or Miss the Run?NVDA 💥🔥
Let’s be real, the market’s been shaky. Between the spike in volatility and the new tariff chatter coming out of the Trump camp, tech stocks are getting tossed around. But here’s the thing—volatility is where the setups live. And NVDA, sitting at the center of the AI revolution, isn’t going to stay down forever.
This might be the window. We’re talking a solid entry zone between 90 and 70, right where volatility meets opportunity.
Our profit targets?
✅ 110 for a clean bounce
✅ 125 as momentum builds
✅ 145+ if the bulls take the wheel again
It’s not about chasing—this is about timing the wave before it rips. So if you’re into smart risk, layered entries, and riding volatility like a pro… NVDA just rang the bell.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading involves risk, especially in volatile conditions. Always do your own research or speak to a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NVDA Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15NVDA Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15)
NASDAQ:NVDA
Below is a synthesized, step‐by‐step quant analysis of NVDA’s weekly options environment based on all model reports and the provided options data:
─────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF MODEL KEY POINTS
▪ Grok/xAI Report – Price is trading tightly in a range near $112.20 with short‐term oscillation between support (~$111.95) and resistance (~$112.35). – Very mixed short‐term indicators (5‑minute MACD bearish but daily MACD bullish) and overall neutral technicals. – High option volume and open interest around $110 (max pain) and $115, but the report concludes with “no trade recommendation” given the mixed signals.
▪ Llama/Meta Report – Confirms NVDA is at $112.20 and finds 5‑minute charts “neutral/consolidating” while noting the daily chart shows some bullish recovery. – Despite daily technical hints of a potential bullish reversal, overall bias is assessed as moderately bearish. – Recommends a put option trade—specifically a $109 strike put with an ask premium of $0.84—citing a moderately bearish view and a 70% confidence level.
▪ Gemini/Google Report – Acknowledges that while the daily chart is bullish (strong momentum above keys like the 10‑day EMA) short‑term M5 charts show consolidation and the negative news (export restrictions and a possible $5.5B charge) adds significant uncertainty. – Notes that the max pain level is at $110 (below the current price) and that although pre‑market action appears firm, the conflicting signals create high risk. – Concludes strongly to “NO TRADE” at the open given the mixed and conflicting signals (confidence around 30%).
▪ DeepSeek Report – Points out that although NVDA is trading above some key EMAs, the negative news and heavy put open interest (especially near the $110 level) weigh on sentiment. – Using max pain logic and a moderately bearish bias (targeting a move toward $110), recommends buying a $110 strike put at a $1.10 premium with a 68% confidence level. – Provides detailed entry, profit target, and stop‐loss conditions (though the premium is notably above an “ideal” range of $0.30–$0.60).
───────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
Agreement: – All models acknowledge that the negative news (export restrictions, potential $5.5B charge) introduces strong bearish pressure. – There is a common observation that options open interest clusters around the $110 level (max pain) with heavy activity on both calls and puts, signaling sensitivities near that price. – Technical indicators in the very short term (5‑minute charts) show consolidation, even though the daily charts lean more bullish in some cases.
Disagreement: – Grok/xAI and Gemini conclude that the mixed signals (technical consolidation with bearish news drag) warrant no immediate trade at open. – Llama/Meta and DeepSeek tilt toward a moderately bearish view and recommend a put trade—though they differ on the exact strike (Llama selects ~$109, DeepSeek prefers $110) and premium levels. – Confidence levels differ substantially (from 0% and 30% up to 68–70%), reflecting uncertainty about whether the news or bullish technicals will dominate intraday.
───────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDED TRADE
Overall Market Direction Consensus: The environment remains ambiguous. Although the daily charts show some bullish resilience, the weight of recent negative news, the gravitational pull of $110 max pain, and heavy put volumes lean toward a modestly bearish bias. Still, the signals are mixed and the immediate post‑open direction is highly uncertain.
Recommended Trade (if you choose to be opportunistic): Based on Llama/Meta and DeepSeek—if you’re willing to take a moderately bearish bet at open—a put trade might be considered. However, note that Gemini and Grok/xAI advocate waiting for a clearer signal given the uncertainty.
For traders who prefer to have a trade based on a bias toward a downside reaction, one possible trade would be: • BUY a single‑leg, naked weekly PUT option. • Strike: $109.00 (ask premium of $0.84 is close enough given liquidity and moderate bearish distance). • Expiration: April 17, 2025 • Entry: at market open • Rationale: With a moderately bearish tilt from the negative news and max pain considerations, a $109 put offers a risk/reward profile in a premium region slightly above the ideal range (but acceptable given the high-impact catalysts). • Confidence Level: ~70% • Key risks: A continued short‑term consolidation or a “bounce” in price (especially if NVDA moves toward the max pain level and finds support) would hurt a put position. Also, any unexpected bullish catalyst could quickly overturn the bearish bias.
That said, because of the significant conflicting factors and the risk that the negative news may already be priced in, one could also justify sitting on the sidelines (as recommended by two of the models).
───────────────────────────── 4. FINAL RECOMMENDATION
In our view, the market is too conflicted for a high‑confidence directional bet. However, if you are inclined to act on the moderately bearish view—and you accept the risk of an early move against your position—the put side is the only candidate for a single‑leg trade. With that said, given the discord among the models (with two models advising “no trade”), a conservative trader might well decide to wait for clearer price action at the open.
───────────────────────────── TRADE DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": null, "direction": null, "strike": null, "expiry": null, "confidence": null, "profit_target": null, "stop_loss": null, "size": null, "entry_price": null, "entry_timing": null }
───────────────────────────── FINAL NOTE: While there is some support for a moderately bearish put trade (for example, buying a $109 put at $0.84), the divergent signals from the models (including strong advice from two reports to avoid trading today) mean that risk management is paramount. Many quant practitioners would prefer to wait until post‑open confirmation before jumping in.
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