WTI(20250729)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
After gold prices soared to an all-time high of more than $3,500 an ounce in April, the latest report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that fund managers have increased their bullish bets to the highest level in 16 weeks.
Technical analysis:
Today's buy and sell boundaries:
66.09
Support and resistance levels:
68.13
67.37
66.87
65.30
64.80
64.04
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 66.87, consider buying, the first target price is 67.37
If the price breaks through 66.09, consider selling, the first target price is 65.30
Oil
CRUDE OIL Bullish Continuation! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a rebound
From the support just as
I predicted and the price
Went further still and broke
The key horizontal level
Of 66.50$ and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bullish biased and we will be
Expecting a further bullish
Move up!
Buy!
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Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1!
This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds.
Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks.
US - EU Trade Deal:
• US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system.
• Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt.
• EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG.
• Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively.
• Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably.
• The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament.
China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council.
South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package.
UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia.
Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada
Key Economic Data Releases:
Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates.
Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2
Supply: 7-Year Note Auction
Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference
US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference.
Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun)
Japan: BoJ Press Conference
Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations.
It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule .
Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening.
As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure.
So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.”
In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026.
Institutional View: Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to:
• Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration
• Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades
• Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment
That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including:
• Twin deficits (fiscal + current account)
• Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status
• USD hedging activity picking up by international investors
• Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration
How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
Market Analysis: Oil Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh CatalystMarket Analysis: Oil Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh Catalyst
WTI crude oil is also down and remains at risk of more losses below $64.60.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI crude oil price continued to decline below the $66.00 support zone.
- It traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI crude oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $67.50. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $66.00.
There was a steady decline below the $65.80 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $65.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The price traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65.60.
Finally, the price tested the $64.75 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $64.73, and the price is now consolidating losses. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $65.60 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $66.42 swing high to the $64.73 low.
The main resistance is $65.80. A clear move above it could send the price towards $66.40. The next key resistance is near $67.50. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $70.00. Any more gains might send the price towards the $72.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $64.60 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $63.20. If there is a downside break, the price might decline towards $60.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL Analysis : MMC Bullish Setup Building on USOIL – Target🧠 Introduction & Trade Philosophy
In today’s 4H USOIL chart analysis, we are at a critical decision-making zone, where price action is preparing to make a major move in either direction, based on the response to a central demand zone. We are applying the MMC Rule, which emphasizes mirroring supply-demand behavior and validating market moves through structural confirmation.
The current price structure presents a classic MMC scenario, where price must either confirm a bullish double demand reaction or invalidate the setup by breaking the key zone and moving bearish.
📍 Chart Structure Explained
🔷 1. Central Reversal Zones (CRZs)
There are two CRZs highlighted:
The upper CRZ around 65.90–66.20, where price was previously rejected.
The lower CRZ, where price is currently consolidating, is around 64.80–65.50.
These zones are liquidity-rich areas where big players react—either by absorbing positions or driving directional moves.
🟢 2. Bullish Scenario – MMC Rule In Play (Path 1)
"If we want it bullish, we want 50% supply and demand will be double according to MMC Rule"
According to MMC, a bullish move must be confirmed by a strong reaction from demand, showing double the pressure of the last bearish move. Here's how that plays out:
Price respects the lower CRZ, bouncing near the 65.00 mark.
If this bounce gains momentum and breaks above the trendline resistance, the first target is the minor resistance at $69.00, followed by the major resistance zone near $70.50–$71.00.
A retest of broken structure, followed by bullish continuation, is expected. This is marked with the white zigzag projection labeled as “1” on the chart.
Watch for a clear higher high formation, which would indicate a shift in structure and validate bullish momentum.
🔻 3. Bearish Scenario – Breakdown Confirmation (Path 2)
"If it breaks, USOIL will go bearish"
If price fails to hold the current demand and closes below $64.80–64.50, it signals that demand has been absorbed, and MMC reversal has failed. In that case:
A clean breakdown below the demand zone will confirm bearish control.
The next downside target becomes $62.00, as labeled “2” on the chart.
The downward move is likely to follow a steep path as marked with the sharp downward trendline extension, especially if supported by volume and news catalysts.
🔄 Mirror Concept Highlight – Ellipse Area
The ellipse shape on the chart marks a previous compression zone followed by a breakout. This area represents an imbalance in supply that led to a sell-off. The MMC principle suggests the market tends to mirror these zones—if that was previous supply, and the current demand zone mirrors its positioning and structure, we can anticipate a similar reaction, but to the upside.
This is where the "50% double reaction" rule comes in—demand needs to show twice the strength to overcome the previous sell-side pressure.
🔧 Technical Levels Summary
Zone Type Price Range Notes
Major Resistance 70.50 – 71.00 Final target if bullish scenario plays out
Minor Resistance 68.80 – 69.20 First bullish checkpoint
Upper CRZ 65.90 – 66.20 Key structure to break for bulls
Lower CRZ (Support) 64.80 – 65.50 Demand base for bullish setup
Bearish Target Zone 62.00 – 61.80 Projected zone if support breaks
🧭 Trader’s Mindset & Risk Notes (MMC Style)
Wait for clear confirmation and price behavior near the CRZs before entering.
Use trendline breaks, candlestick confirmation, and volume to validate direction.
Avoid guessing the direction—let price tell the story.
Stick to MMC rules: No confirmation, no position.
✅ Bullish Criteria Checklist:
✔️ Price respects lower CRZ
✔️ Breakout above trendline
✔️ Closes above $66.20
✔️ Higher highs + strong bullish candles
✔️ MMC Double Demand Reaction Confirmed
❌ Bearish Breakdown Triggers:
❌ Breaks below $64.50
❌ Weak bounce + lower highs
❌ Volume increases on downside
❌ Clean breakdown structure
🚀 Trade Plan & Outlook
We’re now at a critical zone where market sentiment will soon be clear. Based on your MMC analysis, the bias remains bullish as long as price holds above $64.80. Be patient and let the setup complete with structure confirmation.
This is not just a technical play—it's a psychological zone, where institutional traders also make decisions. Follow the MMC logic and react with confirmation.
Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market direction:
The recent daily crude oil line has been hovering, and it feels like it is falling or not falling. The daily crude oil line is still bearish. Let's continue to sell it on the rebound. For crude oil today, we focus on the suppression of 67.00. Consider selling it at this rebound position. The daily crude oil line needs to break the 64.00 position to see real selling force, otherwise it is a repair shock with a very small amplitude.
Fundamental analysis:
The latest news is that the United States and the European Union have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which overall supports the US dollar and suppresses gold. In addition, this week, pay attention to ADP employment data, non-agricultural employment data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and speech.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil-----sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00
CRUDE OIL REBOUND AHEAD|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 64.69$
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 65.50$
LONG🚀
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USOIL: Long Trade with Entry/SL/TP
USOIL
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USOIL
Entry Point - 65.00
Stop Loss - 64.67
Take Profit - 65.55
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
CRUDE OIL Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL will soon hit
A horizontal support
Of 64.50$ and as it is
A strong level we will be
Expecting a local bullish
Rebound on Monday
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
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USOIL: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 65.029 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 65.579.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 65.00
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 65.50
Recommended Stop Loss - 64.75
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Brent Crude Sitting at Key Support – 69.20 Hold for a Rebound?Daily Analysis:
Price is holding above the ascending trendline and forming higher lows. Multiple rejections from the 68.00 region suggest strong demand. As long as we remain above the trendline, bulls stay in control.
4H Analysis:
Pullback after rejecting 71.00. Now sitting inside the 69.60–69.20 demand area. Bullish channel is still valid unless we break below 68.50.
1H Analysis:
Price broke the rising channel but is now hovering near key support. Bullish re-entry possible if lower timeframe aligns around 69.60.
Confirmation & Entry:
If we see bullish engulfing or pin bar at 69.60–69.20, this could signal a long setup back to 71.00. Invalidated on clean break below 68.50.
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 63.000.Colleagues, I believe that wave “B” has formed at the level of 69.938, and now we expect the downward movement to continue with the aim of completing wave ‘C’ of the middle order and wave “2” of the higher order in the support area of 63,000.
It is quite possible that the price could reach the 60,000 level, but I think that for now it is worth focusing on the nearest targets.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil has not moved much, but it Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has not moved much, but it is a good short-term operation opportunity. Sell small when it rebounds, sell big when it rebounds. Crude oil will basically not trap you. It is difficult to end the selling in the short term. It will basically decline in the future. You can sell when it rebounds near 67.00 today. If it breaks 64.00, it will directly dive. The daily line of crude oil has formed a shock pattern. You can sell at the break position of 64.00.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---sell near 67.00, target 65.00-63.00
Crude oil trading reminder: triple positive support
💡Message Strategy
After three consecutive days of sluggishness, both U.S. and Brent crude oil remained above the 100-day moving average on Thursday (July 24). U.S. crude oil is currently up 0.4%, trading around 65.46; Brent crude oil is currently up 0.1%, trading around US$68.67 per barrel. The three engines of trade negotiations, unexpected decline in inventories, and geopolitical games are ignited at the same time. Oil prices showed signs of stabilizing, allowing bulls to "smell" the long-awaited rebound opportunity.
1. The trade war breaks the ice: the US, Japan and Europe have reached a series of agreements to ignite market hopes.
2. Inventories plummeted by 3.2 million barrels! The balance of supply and demand suddenly tilted.
3. Geopolitical black swan: The war between Russia and Ukraine burns the energy supply chain
📊Technical aspects
The short-term (4H) trend of crude oil fluctuated upward slightly. The moving average system gradually formed a bullish arrangement, and the short-term objective trend direction was upward. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator opened upward above the zero axis, and the bullish momentum was sufficient.
In terms of form, the oil price broke through the neckline, and the head and shoulders bottom reversal pattern was established. It is expected that after the intraday crude oil trend retests the neckline position, the probability of forming another upward rhythm is high.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:65.50-66.50,SL:64.00,Target:67.75-68.00
Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been falling recently, but the decline is not large, and the rebound will not be large. Consider selling crude oil if it rebounds slightly. The crude oil idea is bearish. It is difficult for crude oil to rise sharply without fundamentals, but we insist on taking losses in operation. If there is no loss, a piece of news will make it take off directly. Crude oil focuses on 64.00 support, and suppresses 67.50 and 69.50. Consider selling opportunities when the Asian session rebounds to 67.50.
Fundamental analysis:
Tariffs have not affected the market recently, and no major news has been announced. The market is relatively calm.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil ----- Sell near 67.50, target 65.00-63.00
USOIL Robbery Alert! Smart Entry Plan Below Key MA Level🔐💥 “WTI Energy Heist: Thief Trader’s Bearish Master Plan” 💥🔐
The Official Robbery Blueprint for Smart Traders
🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟
💸 Welcome, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 💸
🚨 Get ready to break into the "US Oil Spot/WTI" market with precision-crafted bearish strategy from the one and only — Thief Trader Style!
📉💣 THE HEIST IS ON: SHORT PLAN LOADED! 💣📉
We’ve analyzed the charts using Thief Technicals + Fundamental Lockpick Tools and spotted a high-risk GREEN zone – a consolidation trap where greedy bulls usually get caught. This is where we strike.
🔑 ENTRY:
"Wait for the Neutral Moving Average to Break — Then Make Your Move!"
🎯 Focus zone: 64.50
☠️ Wait for the breakout – do NOT enter before it happens.
✅ Use sell stop orders above the MA line or place sell limit orders on the pullback after the breakout (target within the 15–30 min candle near swing high/low).
🧠 Thief Tip: Layer in entries using the DCA (layered attack strategy) to catch price on its way down. Set a chart alert so you don’t miss the strike moment.
🛑 STOP LOSS:
"Set it smart or don’t set it at all — you choose the fire you want to play with!"
📍 SL only gets placed AFTER breakout.
🎯 Recommended SL at 66.00 on the 4H swing level.
☠️ DO NOT place any orders or SL before confirmation breakout.
📊 Your SL depends on your risk %, lot size, and number of entries stacked.
🎯 TARGET ZONE: 62.50
💸 Lock profits before the bulls wake up. This level is based on market exhaustion zones and historical bounce areas.
🧠 WHY WE'RE SHORTING THIS?
This isn’t just a chart move — it’s backed by full-scale robbery research:
📰 COT Reports
📈 Macro & Seasonal Trends
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories
💹 Sentiment & Intermarket Correlation
📉 Supply-Demand Dynamics
📚 Before pulling the trigger, educate yourself with the fundamentals. Dive into COT, Seasonal, and Macro reports. Don’t rob blindly — rob smart.
⚠️ Risk Management Alert:
Major news releases? Step back.
Trailing stops? Lock it in.
Position sizing? Know your risk.
Trade like a professional robber, not a street pickpocket.
💥💖 SUPPORT THE ROBBERY PLAN 💖💥
🧨 Smash that BOOST button to support this trading style and help more traders rob the market clean. Every like, every boost makes this community stronger.
💬 Drop a comment, share your entry levels, or post your winning trades.
This is a trading crew – we rob together, we profit together.
🔔 Stay tuned — more heist plans dropping soon.
Until then... Rob Smart. Trade Hard. Take Profits. 💰💪🎯
Crude oil-----sell near 66.00, target 65.00-63.00Crude oil market analysis:
The recent daily crude oil line has been fluctuating slightly. It is still bearish to sell at a high price. Crude oil is unlikely to rebound or rise sharply without fundamental support. The hourly crude oil suppression position is 66.40 and 67.50. Today we are close to 66.00 to consider selling opportunities. The daily moving average of crude oil is starting to go down. If 64.00 is broken, it will start to fall sharply.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil-----sell near 66.00, target 65.00-63.00
WTI(20250723)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
White House officials plan to visit the Federal Reserve headquarters on Thursday local time.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
65.22
Support and resistance levels:
66.22
65.85
65.61
64.84
64.60
64.22
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 65.61, consider buying, the first target price is 65.85
If the price breaks through 65.22, consider selling, the first target price is 64.84
A Sleeping Giant in the Energy Sector?While everyone’s chasing the next hot AI stock, a quiet opportunity might be taking shape in the energy sector; and it could be a big one.
🔋 As AI data centers explode in size and number, the demand on our power grid is rising fast. Nuclear is still years away, and renewables are struggling to scale in time. That leaves oil and gas as the most reliable players; and one U.S. company may be perfectly positioned to ride that wave.
📊 Technical Analysis
NASDAQ:PROP PROP has been in a steady downtrend, moving within a falling wedge pattern (marked in green). Right now, it’s retesting the bottom of that wedge, typically where things get oversold.
Even more interesting, PROP bounced off a major monthly demand zone last week, a signal that buyers may be stepping in.
In the short term, if the blue demand zone holds, we could see a push toward the $7 mark, which lines up with the top of the wedge.
But to really confirm a medium-term reversal, we’ll need a clean break above the $8.3 resistance. If that happens, the door could open to a rally toward $15, a key level from early 2024.
🛢️ Why PROP? A Hidden Play With Room to Run
Prairie Operating Co. (NASDAQ: PROP) isn’t your typical small-cap oil stock. They own 65,000 acres in Colorado’s DJ Basin and use modern drilling tech to stay lean and efficient. That means they can still make money even when oil prices dip.
As energy demand continues to climb, PROP could be sitting in the sweet spot , especially with the world so focused on tech stocks. But behind every AI boom is a growing energy need, and companies like PROP are the ones powering it.
One well-known Wall Street firm recently gave PROP a Buy rating with a $21.75 price target; that’s a potential 281% upside from where it stands today. And that’s not even counting the potential boost from energy-friendly policies under the current administration.
📌 One to Watch in 2025
PROP might just be one of the most under-the-radar energy plays going into the new year.
The biggest moves often start quietly; and this one has all the ingredients to surprise.
➡️ As always, speak with your financial advisor and do your own research before making any investment decisions.
📚 Always follow your trading plan => including entry, risk management, and trade execution.
Good luck!
All strategies are good, if managed properly.
~ Richard Nasr
USOIL POTENTIAL LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL has retested a key support level of 65.00$
And as the pair is already making a bullish rebound
A move up to retest the supply level above at 66.27$ is likely
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Crude Oil Rebound Incoming? Key Demand Zone 📈 1. Technical Analysis – Daily Chart (CL1!)
The price has returned to a demand zone between 64.60 and 65.30, an area that previously triggered strong bullish reactions.
The July 22nd candle shows a clear lower wick, indicating potential buyer absorption and a possible short-term reversal.
The next key resistance lies between 67.80 and 68.80, which aligns with a well-defined supply zone.
Daily RSI remains weak but shows signs of bullish divergence, suggesting potential accumulation.
Bias: bullish from current levels, targeting 67.50 – 68.00. Invalidation on a daily close below 64.40.
2. Institutional Sentiment – COT Report (CFTC, July 15, 2025)
Non-Commercials (Speculators)
Long: 308,915 (↓ -24,223)
Short: 146,488 (↑ +22,724)
Net Position: sharply declining → bearish divergence in speculative sentiment
Commercials (Hedgers)
Long: 857,803 (↑ +66,342)
Short: 1,046,199 (↑ +18,118)
Net Position: still negative, but improving → reduced hedging = less downside pressure
📉 Interpretation:
Funds are closing longs and adding shorts, showing bearish positioning. However, commercials are slowly reducing their hedging exposure, which could indicate short-term stabilization if the technical support holds.
3. Seasonality
Periods analyzed: 20, 15, 10, 5, and 2 years
July historically shows negative average returns:
-0.71% (20Y)
-1.26% (15Y)
-1.37% (10Y)
The seasonal pattern indicates continued cyclical weakness into August.
📌 Interpretation:
The summer period typically brings seasonal bearish pressure, which aligns with current 2025 performance.
🌐 4. Macro & Fundamentals
EIA inventory builds for 3 consecutive weeks → demand weakness in the U.S.
No additional OPEC+ cuts announced → supply remains ample
Stable inflation data in the U.S. and China → no uptick in energy demand
Overall macro data is neutral with a slightly bearish short-term bias