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CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025 🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures) 📉 Strategy: Short Swing 📅 Entry Timing: Market Open 📈 Confidence: 68% 🔍 Model Insights Recap 🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs 🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength 📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias 🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility ⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus 📉 Consensus Takeaway While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to: 🔼 Overbought RSI readings 📈 Price extended well above key moving averages 🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74 ✅ Recommended Trade Setup Metric Value 🔀 Direction Short 🎯 Entry Price $72.65 🛑 Stop Loss $74.20 🎯 Take Profit $68.80 📏 Size 1 contract 📈 Confidence 68% ⏰ Timing Market Open ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations 🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges 📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis 📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20 🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) json Copy Edit { "instrument": "CL", "direction": "short", "entry_price": 72.65, "stop_loss": 74.20, "take_profit": 68.80, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.68, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantsignals
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold. A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400. At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event. Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
4
USOUL:Go long near 65.5 USOIL:Crude oil broke through the watershed 64.85 after the emergence of strong unilateral bulls, daily cycle relying on short-term average to go even Yang form, rising space has opened, pay attention to the strong will continue at least a few trading days, short-term relying on 65 defense needs to be more, pay attention to 65.5 near the long, see 66.7-67 Trading Strategy: BUY@65.5 TP: 66.7-67 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
TVC:USOILLong
by Boooob_
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down needing to fill its top. Bullish.WTI Crude Oil turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.137, MACD = 0.740, ADX = 26.844), having completed a very strong 1W candle last week. This is the continuation of the May 5th bottom rebound. All prior such rebounds have filled at least the 1W MA50, having touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 1W RSI LH trendline gives a good sense of where to sell, but since the 0.618 Fib is the guide, the target is TP = 71.15. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis: Crude oil is still bearish, and we will continue to sell on rebounds. If it does not break 65.00, it will fluctuate. The general trend is bearish. If it breaks, we will adjust our thinking. Today's crude oil is the key. Will it start to take off before the data? The previous crude oil inventory data did not allow crude oil to break the position. The crude oil fluctuation range is 60.00-65.00. If it breaks this range, we will adjust our thinking on fluctuations. Operational suggestions Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis: Yesterday's crude oil still failed to rise. The buying price still failed to stand above 65.00 and was still fluctuating. Today, we continue to look at the range wave. We still consider selling it when it is close to 64. The crude oil inventory data does not give us much room for imagination. In addition, the recent fundamentals of crude oil are not strong, and they do not support the long position of crude oil, which has caused crude oil to fluctuate and hover. The current fluctuation range we see is 65.00-60.00. Operation suggestions: Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by NuggetsWarriors
USOIL:Go long Crude oil prices rose due to ongoing tariff uncertainty as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. From the chart, the K line has repeatedly appeared long lower shadow small solid positive line, indicating that the lower buying long support is strong. Expected intraday crude oil short - term trend still exists a wave of upward space. Trading Strategy: BUY@62.5-62.6 TP: 63.5-64 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here ↗↗↗ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" ↗↗↗
TVC:USOILLong
by Boooob_
WTI CRUDE OIL: Repeated rejections on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.483, MACD = -0.530, ADX = 16.270) as it is trading sideways for the past 2 weeks, unable however to cross above the 1D MA50, which along with the LH trendline, keep the trend bearish. Sell and aim for thr S1 level (TP = 56.00). Emerging Bearish Cross also on the 1D MACD. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand. To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system. Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity. This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows. It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower. Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher." The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region. Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil. However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists. The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement. Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer. The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies. In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOIL:Long at 61.3-61.5 Last week's long target has been completed, the current decline is mainly due to concerns that global supply growth may exceed demand growth, from the technical trend, the objective trend of the middle line downward, short term long and short frequently alternate, pay attention to the support point of 60.3-60.5 within the day. Considering that it has been around this point of shock and not broken, short - term trading to do more. So the trading strategy :BUY@61.3-61.5 TP@62.5-62.7 ↓↓↓ More detailed strategies and trading will be notified here →→→ ↓↓↓ Keep updated, come to "get" →→→
TVC:USOILLong
by Boooob_
USOIL:Go long first Crude oil short-term trend to maintain weak shock upward rhythm, K line closed long lower shadow line, there are signs of rebound. Short - term moving average system gradually long arrangement, relying on oil prices, short - term objective trend direction to upward. It is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to extend upward, hitting around 62.8-63 Recommended Trading Strategies: 61-61.2 range to be long, short-term target to see 62, break through the target to see 62.8-63 ↓↓↓ The detailed strategy club will have tips, updated daily, come and get them →→→
TVC:USOILLong
by Boooob_
WTI CRUDE OIL: Mirror pattern calls for a sell.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.222, MACD = -0.370, ADX = 25.154) as the price is just under the 1D MA50, where it got rejected last Tuesday. In the meantime, it has the support of the 4H MA50, hence stuck inside a neutral range. This pattern is however identical to April, after which the price declined aggressively to the S1 level. Sell, TP = 56.00. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 59.97 1st Support: 57.60 1st Resistance: 63.27 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1