15 Companies that have organic growth of financial resultsIt is good options to buy when the market is at the bottom (we think it is summer 2023, you can see our macro scenario here )
Type: growth stock
1. Okta – operates in the Identity Management market (identification protocols). It sells its products to individual companies and as part of integration with the other industry leaders (Zscaler). Organic growth is expected due to a low penetration of Identity Management in corporate environment (20% now). The market could reach the value of 70 bln, according to McKinsey. We anticipate revenue to expand by ~30% over the next few years.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
2. Twilio – operates in the CPaaS market. The valuation already reflects negative expectations from the slowdown of the CPaaS market amid shrinking advertising budgets (weak consumer). We expect revenue to expand by 25%+ over the next few years, which is also reflected in the company’s long-term valuation.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing. The emergence of various solutions in the market that are powered by GPT-3 (a neural network), which generates human-like responses based on the learning of the target audience. These solutions are less costly for companies; however, major companies aren’t bent on integrating it just yet. I believe that Twilio could integrate it in its own product, as GPT-3 has an open source code.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
3. Zscaler. The company operates in the narrowly specialized SSE market. Industry leader. Organic growth is expected due to the current low penetration in corporate solutions (around 3%). We anticipate the company will practically double its cash flow every year over the next 2 years + it’s profitable
4. Paypal. In the third quarter PayPal demonstrated again that the company’s strategy is bearing fruit even as the global economy is slowing down.
The multipronged development of PayPal’s services remains key for its organic growth. What used to be a fairly narrow-focused service to pay for goods and services is adding ever more new functions: PayPal continues to cooperate with Apple and is expanding the opportunities for contactless payment, while also working to increase engagement with the audience through the Braintree payment system. Therefore, even in the middle of an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and faced with declining consumption in the cyclical sectors, the company is seizing ever more market share.
Upside: the management plans to boost operating margin by about 100 bps next year by developing infrastructure and reducing transaction costs.
5. Tesla. Tesla publishes fairly strong reports: Revenue and operating profit grow by 50-60% y/y. unlike other players, Tesla also improves its business margins.
When China ends lockdowns, the issue of downtime at Tesla’s Chinese plant, its largest, will go away. Also, as soon as this quarter (the fourth quarter) Tesla will share access to its FSD and release it to the mass market.
In general, the company is feeling well. Its stock price has fallen ahead of the market amid Musk’s purchase of Twitter and the current perturbations at Twitter. Also. Musk sold some of his Tesla shares to fund the purchase of Twitter. Musk’s current share is ~13%.
Type: cyclical stocks
1. Livent. The company is moving ahead in line with our forecast. The company has several growth projects that start as soon as 1Q 2023, and also in 4Q 2023. They will add 100% of lithium carbonate production. Lithium prices, give or take, are set to remain near their current levels as demand from the EV industry continues to be strong (even as consumption is low, the market cannibalizes ICE models).
Downside: 1) Poor reporting on sales volumes. Chemicals prices continue to hold high. If lithium prices turn around, that will erase the margin.
Upside: 1) The company operates with a high gross margin. Its costs are $7,000 per 1 ton of production while the price now is about 80,000 a ton.
2. Darling. The company has piled up a lot of cash on the balance sheet. It now uses it for strategic precision purchases, which fuel its growth. + 30% of EBITDA comes from DGD, the growth of operating metrics will largely happen in 2023, so by 2024 operating metrics will rise by 50%. The stock took a lot of hammering as Biden seeks to revise the 17-year-old EPA and shift the program toward biogases. EBITDA will get a strong boost due to declining agricultural commodities prices.
Downside: 1) Margin is tamped down because of the acquisition spending (temporary impact) + agricultural commodities prices could hold above our expectations, which means EBITDA wouldn’t get as much of a boost
Upside 1) core business is stable
3. Crocs. the company grows fast in terms of operating metrics (physical shipments of footwear of its own brand and HeyDude), and has been able to switch to air freight delivery, which has been immediately reflected in EBITDA, as was expected. Crocs is now laser focused to consolidate the Asian rubber footwear market, as it regards it as the main and priority market.
Downside: 1) High debt, which was taken out to buy HeyDude. However, they are paying it back as they are successfully integrating HeyDude in its organic structure.
Upside 1) They are able to pass a high share of costs on to the consumer (high gross margin). The average selling price of footwear is $25, while production costs are $10. The brand name is actively working for the company, advertising costs aren’t rising too much (the collaboration with stars that have audiences of millions of people does its part + go on advertising: let’s say, when you see a celebrity wearing Crocs out in the street, rather than on your phone screen, you want them, too.
4. Pinterest. In the third quarter Pinterest showed a net increase of monthly active users for the first time this year. It totaled 445 million people: 95 mln in the US and Canada and 350 mln in other regions.
Although the digital advertising market has taken a heavy blow in 2022 as economy slowed down and advertising budgets were downsized, Pinterest continues to show a stable growth of average revenue per user: The total ARPU reached $1.54 (+8.16% y/y) in 3Q, compared with our forecast for $1.59.
5. Ulta. As of now, organic growth is possible only through opening mini outlets at Target stores. The beauty industry, including Ulta, isn’t falling that much as the company/industry get the bulk of their revenue from beauty enthusiasts (who use cosmetics no matter what, even expensive ones). + the company continues to show a high pace of LFL sales growth due to foot traffic and the average ticket. For two straight quarters now, the company has beaten analyst expectations, but not ours for EPS, due to an increased efficiency of inventory accounting/arrangement of products per 1 square meter (essentially, every inch is used for commercial purposes).
6. Netflix. The business is essentially mature. What could breathe life into it is a strategy to acquire users in low-income markets + add-supported subscription.
7. Transocean. For a few straight quarters now, RIG has showed it’s getting new contracts, including long-term ones, at elevated prices. As long as the trend continues, we expect the company’s gross margin to expand because RIG, when it concludes contracts, includes the future growth of costs in the contract value. All the contracts have fixed revenue, rather than adjustable one, so that’s why. With oil price at $70+ and given underinvestment in the industry, RIG is sure to have demand for its ships.
Type: Chinese, Taiwanese stocks
1. TSMC. TSMC shows a stable growth of financial results and growing business margins. TSMC, in effect, has a monopolistic position in the market, with major companies in the US and China relying on its products.
If China seeks to maintain economic growth and improve the well-being of its citizens, then most likely nothing will happen to Taiwan before 2024 (the year of presidential elections in Taiwan). Therefore, 2023 will be a year of continued growth for TSMC, even amid a global recession.
2. Li Auto. Li Auto shares have been dumped amid the decline of its gross margin as demand skewed toward the more expensive EV. That’s the most expensive EV made in China and the strong demand for it demonstrates that the company’s revenue will continue to rise.
Li Auto is in the middle of an investment phase now, being busy boosting its R&D in EV software and various components in order to achieve a greater vertical integration. The company continues to expand in terms of capacity, dealerships, and invest in its autopilot.
The company holds substantial promise, just like Tesla. What’s more, Li Auto is on the party list as the third-largest EV producer.
3. Baidu. If China relaxes its lockdowns, Baidu’s core business – advertising – will gain pace, with revenue and operating revenue getting a boost. Baidu actively invests in its proprietary systems for AI-powered driving and digitalization of industrial businesses and state-owned companies. In 2024 Baidu is set to start manufacturing EVs jointly with Jidu.
