the situation is different with July 2021The price is at the support level of July 2021, but the situation is different from that time
The situation is different from July 2021, when Bitcoin was in the same range of $ 30,000.
The US dollar index, which has a negative correlation with bitcoin, is increasing
The US stock market has lost support levels and is in a downtrend
The buyer to seller ratio is in favor of the sellers
And we have seen significant negative NetFlow in the market.
Miners have sold their bitcoins based on the MPI index
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining, and the slight increase in recent days is not enough to reverse the trend.
In the technical chart, Bitcoin has lost the support level of MA 2Y
These are not good signs for Bitcoin
Onchain
Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC has increased by 8%The number of wallets with more than 1,000 bitcoins has grown by about 8% since February this year, but that will not be enough to reverse the bitcoin trend. We are witnessing a decline in the reserves of banks and miners. This is a sign of their bitcoin sales in recent months, and despite the relative decline in exchange reserves, it is still very high. More accumulation seems to be needed to start the uptrend cycle.
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining Banks can be considered as one of the market whales. We are witnessing an increase in banks' reserves from December 2019. Reserve of banks increased about 10 times from November 2020 to February 2021. After that, the price of bitcoin started to rise and in March 2021 it reached ATH, Then, with the decline of the reserve of the banks (sales by banks), the price of bitcoin began to fall. Banks' reserves continue to decline and it reached its lowest level since 2020 now. The increase in banks' reserves in the future can be considered a signal about the possibility of an increase in the price of bitcoin
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I'm going to get to the point very quickly
Today's analysis is a combination of Price Action and Ichimoku and on-chain data
Bitcoin reacted to the price of $ 42,500
The volume of the market is gradually increasing
The number of wallets with 1000 bitcoins is increasing rapidly
And every time we crossed the Ichimoku cloud price in the 4-hour candle, we saw a price increase
Possible scenario drawn
BTC:Divergence between the count of transactions and the volume The oscillator shows the number of successful trades in the weekly time frame. However, contrary to what is expected, we are seeing a decrease in volume This could be due to the involvement of small and short-term traders. This may be a reason to create a local top in the coming weeks.
use the count of new addresses to identify distributionThis indicator is the number of unique addresses that appeared for the first time in the bitcoin transactions.
We can use it to identify distribution areas. According to Wyckoff in distribution areas, long-term holders sell their stocks (coins) to newcomer investors. Accordingly, in the distribution area, we should see a peak increase in the number of new addresses. As marked in the chart, by suddenly increasing the new addresses and identifying the peaks in the chart, we can identify potential distribution areas.
Onchain: BTC Hashrate is decreasingThe hash rate drop oscillator shows the hash rate decrease. Although the drop is not large enough for the oscillator to enter the over-low zone, it indicates that some miners have stopped mining. If this decline continues, a reduction in supply could push up prices.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
Rising Wedge!!!Another bearish pattern is in the charts right now which already broken down and currently retesting it so it does make a confluence that we might see some more downside action in the price of Bitcoin, however recently the onchain data shows that 2billion dollars worth of BTC just took off from exchanges, So for that reason it does seems like we might see a relief rally type of scenario, Although if this pattern plays out perfectly the target would be $31,110.
Active addresses are decreasingThe oscillators show smoothed moving average of active addresses and the RSI of it
Active bitcoin addresses are decreasing. This indicates a decrease in investor participation in the market and the continuation of the downtrend.
To start the uptrend, we need to increase investor participation in the market, which will be accompanied by an increase in active addresses
We have a strong downtrendBy Combining technical analysis, price action, and onchain analysis, it seems BTC is facing a strong downtrend
Consider the following:
After the 200-day moving average break-down, Bitcoin retested it, but failed to break it up and finally respected it.
At the bottom of the short-term channel, a pin bar has formed, indicating a reduction in higher prices
In the onchain analysis, the evidence shows the strength of the sellers:
-The composite man oscillator shows that the power of the sellers is still strong
- Exchange Reserve is increasing relatively
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates the dominance of sellers in the market
- Exchanges Netflow: is increasing
The summary of Onchain dataThe chart shows the summary of Onchain data:
Based on MPI and Miner Outflow, miners are still in the selling position
Based on Exchange Whale Ratio, The top 10 inflows to the total inflows are in a high position.
Exchange Reserve has increased slightly
Funding Rate indicates that we are in the local high position
BTC 1Y CDD increased and shows that some holders have been holding for more than a year, moving their bitcoins
Adjusted SOPR has a general downward trend
Taker Buy Sell Ratio and Composite Man show the dominance and power of sellers in the market.
In short, these cases indicate the possibility of a further decline in the price of coins. We are probably in a local high
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators).
Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs.
As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market.
At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.)
"Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators).
Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs.
As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility, and attention are coming into the derivative market.
At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.)
"Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days