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BTC Onchain indicators: Btc needs another large negative netflowMPI: Miners' Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD): the value of this indicator is in its highest value Since March 2021 MPI= 4.22 Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling. USDT reserve is climbing: in general, when the usdt reserves reach their peak, and the price of Bitcoin is in high level, it means that the smart money is in sell position. SOPR RATIOS: Short Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): increasing: Long Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): decreasing SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR): decreasing These show that long-term holders did not play a role in the recent price increase, but it is the short-term holders that caused this price increase. Based on this, what is created is probably a local top. NET Flow: On March 22, the Netflow balance was significantly negative. This means that a significant amount of bitcoins were withdrawn from exchanges on March 22. This is almost equal to the amount that was withdrawn from the exchanges on March 21, 2021, and then the ATH happened on November 8. Now the netflow is positive again, and I think the continuation of the uptrend will require another large negative netflow to buy the sales that occur at this level by miners and short-term holders. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):It has four top values from January 22, when Bitcoin is in the range area. This index had its highest value on February 22 , 2022, since 2019 / This shows that some long-term investors have started selling their bitcoins. Summary: Bitcoin needs another large negative netflow to continue the uptrend , Otherwise we are faced with a local top
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
BTC is not at the bottom of the market the chart shows the NVM ratio. This oscillator works to compare the current value of the Bitcoin with its true value based on the Metcalfe Ratio Necessary explanations about this oscillator are given in the following link. In the analysis that has been observed in recent days in Trading View, some analysts consider the current situation as a range of accumulation at the bottom of the market. According to this oscillator, we are not yet at the bottom of the market. Although there is a possibility of the local top in the market, it seems that we will experience lower prices. (Use this oscillator at the weekly timeframe. This oscillator is for bitcoin and uses onchain data)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
9
Combining wyckoff's theory with ONCHAIN data"This is a hypothesis that needs more testing to be more precise." Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths). But it is not as easy to use as written in books. After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of ​​lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. In fact, the rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation. But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory. Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand price movements in stocks. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.) he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) In fact, composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he selles his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is. In fact, having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man) There are those who buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers). To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts: 1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange. Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers) 2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange. Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers) 3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy (Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market) Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded: - If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side. - If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side. To do this, the oscillator at the bottom of the chart divides the Number of Receiving Addresses by the Number of Sending Addresses. Numbers above 1.2 indicate that the Composite man is on the side of the sellers and should expect a price reduction in the future. Values below 1 (or 1.2) indicate that the Composite man is on the buyers side. And we should expect price increases in the future.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cryptoonchain
NVM Ratio: Bitcoin is is overvalued"Please note that this post is not a recommendation to trade, it is just a review of an ONCHAIN index. " One way to check the intrinsic value of bitcoin is the NVM Ratio, And it can be compared to the P/E index in the stock market This index is based on Metcalfe’s Law. Metcalfe’s law states the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. In another world: the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of active users. Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM Ratio) is defined as the ratio of the log of market capitalization divided by the log of the square of daily active addresses. The chart above shows the price of Bitcoin, MarketCap, and the number of active addresses. We have compared these 3 values in the top 2021 compared to 2018. Although the number of active addresses has remained almost constant, the market cap has risen from 378 B to 1.22 T (It has increased almost 3.3 times). In fact, despite the fact that the number of active network addresses remains constant, its price has increased 3.3 times. NVM ratio in the recent top was 1.32 and in the top of 2017 was 0.43. NVM Ratio is now close to its ATH. This could be a sign that the network is overvalued
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by cryptoonchain
5
Is the current price the market bottom?Is the current price the market bottom of bitcoin? We examine the answer to this question based on 3 on-chain ratios. The NUPL value has been lower than 0.25 and 0 in the previous market bottoms. The NUPL is 0.37 now and is in a downtrend. Therefore bitcoin is likely to experience lower values ​​before the start of the next uptrend. The MVRV ratio Says "No" to this question. The MVRV value at the bottom of the market is historically less than 1. The current price (MVRV = 1.6) is probably not the market bottom The chart shows the SOPR for Bitcoin. Historically, values less than 0.98 have determined the bottom of the market. SOPR is now "1" and has a downtrend, Which can signal further price reduction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
4
Don`t rush to trade, the market is decidingA look at the technical and on-chain analysis on bitcoin shows that the market has not yet decided for the future trend. In the Ranko diagram, we can see a wedge that is neither ascending nor descending In Ichimoku analysis, bitcoin has entered the Kumo cloud. This indicates that the market is making decisions and it is recommended not to trade. OnChain analysis: The on-Chain analysis also shows low levels of transactions The market has had the lowest level of transactions since 2020. The Moving average of inflow and outflow of exchange also has a downtrend and there is no significant inflow or outflow of bitcoins in exchanges. Supply/Demand for BTC reserve for all exchanges reached a 3.5-year low. My idea is that the market is making a decision, and until this decision is made, it is better not to make definite predictions trend. The diagram identifies the levels that must be broken out to confirm the future trend. These levels are $ 45,000 for the uptrend and $ 32,000 for the downtrend in the Renko chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
the percent of circulating supply that has not moved 1 yearThis chart shows the percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year. This data shows what percentage of long-term holders have kept their bitcoins. This index has a negative correlation with price. When prices fall, holders are reluctant to sell and the index starts to rise. Once the price has risen enough, some of these holders will start selling their bitcoins, which causes supply to increase and prices to start falling. The linear correlation in the correlation oscillator indicates the negative correlation with R = - 0.9. For a better understanding, a bitcoin chart is drawn next to it and the peak and trough points are marked.
BEducation
by cryptoonchain
ETH ONCHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPR ANALYSISONCHAIN analysis can be equated with fundamental analysis in the world of cryptocurrency. SOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? See the link below for more information on SOPR: Here we want to present the SOPR analysis of the ETHEREUM ETH crossed the value 1 down (in the oscillator 0). This means that ETHEREUM investors are no longer profitable. The oscillator, on the other hand, shows a downward trend. Based on this, it is likely that we will see a continuation of the downward trend to the point that the price is considered low enough for investors to enter the market for a long position. COINBASE:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by cryptoonchain
BTC ONCHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPRSOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? See the link below for more information on SOPR: In this analysis, we want to examine the SOPR index for bitcoin. As can be seen in the chart, the SOPR is on a downtrend. This shows that investors are out of profit mode and now this index shows the number 1, which indicates the lack of average profit and loss of investors. The SOPR does not currently indicate an end to the downtrend and is likely downtrend continue in the future
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
8
BTC ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPR ON-CHAIN analysis can be equated with fundamental analysis in the world of cryptocurrency. From now, I will try to do some of the analysis available in Trading View. The SOPR index is one of the available on-chain data in Trading View. SOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? When SOPR> 1, it means that the owners of the BTC are in profit and when SOPR< 1, they are at a loss during a bull market values of SOPR below 1 are rejected: In a bull market, when SOPR falls below 1, people would sell at a loss, and thus be reluctant to do so. This pushes the supply down significantly, which in turn puts upward pressure on the price, which increases. during a bear market values of SOPR above 1 are rejected: In a bear market, everyone is selling or waiting for the break-even point to sell. When SOPR is close/greater than 1, people start to sell even more, as they reach break-even. With a higher supply, the price plunges. This indicator can be used in another way - is the price relatively cheap or relatively expensive? Based on historical data, I have drawn OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD areas. At low prices, investors tend to buy, which in turn will increase prices, and at high ratios, investors will tend to sell. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT
BEducation
by cryptoonchain
1
BTC/USD : Most important level to hold; Where are we heading ?BYBIT:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT Recently we had a bounce above $50796 and it's also broke above Daily EMA200 ! Now it's been rejected because of the hourly candle close below $50796 and it's located one Daily EMA200 and EMA 33/55 cloud. The main idea is still can be bullish because of the support from $49500's S/R line and the EMAs below. But any confirmation below $49500 will lead the pair into lower S/R zone and the lower support zone at $46600. So it's very suggested to have a look on #BTC's movement in weekend and tomorrow's range because it can push the pair above $51800 ( Main resistance RN ). How it can push the pair above $51800 ? It's simple; Because of the current gap forming in weekend ! 📚 Also we can have another overview on the chart By adding the Supply/Demand zones and order-blocks : As you can see on the chart there was a supply formed below $52000 and it just rejected the pair below the $50600's S/R level ! Now it's located above S/R line; We can say that If we get rejected again, We might retest the lower bullish order-block and the other S/R line at $48000 and continue our path to sweep the higher 2D's FVG and fill the gap above. - Also we can track our bears into the Wick's mid or lower H12's Demand at $40550 ! So there're many scenarios being activated by losing any level to level. 📊 Then how I would play the chart ? Follow me 👇🏼 Based on On-Chain data that I gathered; The Estimated leverage Ratio has reached new high in last two years by passing above 0.2088 and now it's standing at ~0.2116 ! Which means that there're many Over-Leveraged positions that we need to be cleared. So I would wait for any confirmation above $51800's resistance or any retest into $48000's support.. Also I'll be looking for today's EMAs to react ! But my main levels for now are : 📈 Supports : $49500 $48200 $45500 $44250 $42000 $40550 📉 Resistances : $50800 $51800 $53400 $56000 $57800 $59500 Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support us with your likes and comments ! Attention: this isn't financial advice we are just trying to help people on their own vision. Have a good day! @Helical_Trades
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Helical_Trades
27
Bloody Christmas? [Bitcoin and Altcoins with unusual movement]Hi. Looking at some on-chain data on several blockchains, we have an unusual movement. Price Drawdown from ATH The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high. When the value is equal to zero, we have no drawdown. When it is less than zero we have a drawdown multiplied by 100 (percentage). When the indicator hits the top several times at zero value, it indicates a lot of profit taking. And when it reaches a value less than -0.50, it indicates a lot of loss taking (a huge drawdown). Since nothing lasts forever, either for good or for bad, this indicator serves to demonstrate the exhaustion of both sides, bulls and bears alike. What the graphic indicates: now a maximum drawdown of 100% has been reached since the last all-time high. Surprisingly, this was higher than the historical value of -0.92 in November/2011. What can we interpret from this abrupt drop? Perhaps market players agreed to divest their positions at any cost to avoid further losses. But looking back, the deeper the better the price to buy. Mean Transaction Fees in USD The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included. High fees mean paying to perform a transaction at any cost! When rates peaked, the price fell shortly thereafter. Will it happen again? I do not know. Mean Transfer Volume in USD The mean value of a transfer. Only successful transfers are counted. Looking at this indicator, when we have an increase in volume, we have a price increase. And when we have a decrease in volume, we have a drop in price. Right now we have a trend towards increasing volume. As with the fees indicator, we had a peak in this volume, and generally after that we have a drop in price. Conclusion Caution is required. The on-chain data is diverging. The Price Drawdown indicates a great time to buy, because when it reaches the maximum drawdown, right after the price goes up. On the other hand, unusual transfers and fees indicate a possible downward movement. However, it should be noted that it is not because an event occurred in the past that it will necessarily be repeated in the future. These indicators are just an auxiliary tool. The best indicator that exists is the price itself, and it will tell us what will happen from now on.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
1
Black Friday to buy BitcoinHi. Here's my analysis on Bitcoin\Dollar price. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // Graphical Analysis // --------------------------------------------------------------- On the weekly chart we have a long diagonal support line. Every time the price hit the line, it was a great time to buy. The same is happening now. Looking at the longer diagonal resistance line and the Fibonacci extension, the next top would be at $380k. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // On-Chain Analysis // --------------------------------------------------------------- ***** Price Drawdown from ATH ***** The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high. When the value is in red, we have a loss from the last top. On the other hand, when the value is in blue, we have profit from the last fund. Warning signal on, as there is profit to be taken, which could dump the price down. When this will happen is the heart of the matter. ***** The Puell Multiple ***** Puell Multiple can be interpreted as "If all mined bitcoins were sold immediately in the market, how profitable mining pools are compared to last historical one year?". This metric helps traders gauge the market cycles from the global view. In this indicator, there is still room for an increase in the profit of miners, however an early realization cannot be ruled out. ***** Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) ***** "The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid". Where: Spend Output = Moved Coins Profit Ratio = Price Spent vs Price Created Compares This track the volume of realized PnL...or magnitude of realized on-chain PnL. 1 = Neutral >1 = Profits realized \ Liquid in Bulls <1 = Losses realized \ Liquid in Bears This indicator is good for signaling good buying moments, when the value is equal to or less than 1. Now right now is a good time to buy, as shown in the histogram in red. ***** Total Transaction Fees ***** The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included. High fees mean a sudden movement in the market, or an escape valve at any price! This is another indicator to keep an eye out for. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // Verdict // --------------------------------------------------------------- The price needs to stay in the bullish channel, not breaking $50,000. If it breaks below $50, the scenario should be reconsidered. So that's it, I hope you enjoyed it. If you found this analysis relevant, consider giving a Like, otherwise you can give a Dislike... Good week!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by andre_007
Bitcoin on Black Friday (second part)Hello. I'm doing another Bitcoin analysis, complementing the first one (or correcting if that's the case). Now I'm trying to be more simplistic and objective, considering the most recent scenario, and discarding some indicators that say the same thing. 1. Graphical analysis High Channel The price is testing the support line. Now might be a good time to buy. Moving average of 9-week lows The price has been above this average since July 9, 2021, and now it's enough to test it for the second time. My prediction is that it touches the mean and pulls back up. Volume Strong volume can indicate a top or bottom. Volume is low at the moment, which makes it clear that we have not reached the top as the market is making no effort to move the price. So a new historic high is yet to be discovered. Fib Time Zone Plotting the Fib Time Zone, considering the last bottom in March/2020 and the penultimate top in April/2021, we are exactly in the 0.382 zone. If you consider a new cycle, we have a milestone date on 10/January/2022 at 0.5, and then 0.618 on 21/February/2022. Fibo 1 ends on 25/July/2022, but until then there's a lot to roll. What I think is important now is the next 3 months until February. I believe that after that we will have the crypto winter. 2. On-Chain Analysis Price Drawdown from ATH The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high. When the value is equal to zero, we have no drawdown. When it is less than zero we have a drawdown multiplied by 100 (percentage). This is always considering the last historic high. When the indicator hits the top several times at zero value, it indicates a lot of profit taking. And when it reaches a value less than -0.50, it indicates a lot of loss taking (a huge drawdown). Since nothing lasts forever, either for good or for bad, this indicator serves to demonstrate the exhaustion of both sides, bulls and bears alike. If we look at the historic highs of December\2017 and March\2021, we can assume that we are looking for a new historic high and more profits. Total Transaction Fees The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included. High fees mean paying to perform a transaction at any cost! So far we don't have an indication that the world will end up looking around here, so for now the scenario is bullish. Hope this helps in some way. Greetings.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by andre_007
CRO with great potentialHello. Below is an analysis of Crypto.com, an exchange that is aggressively marketing and that is snapping up the market. F undamentalist analysis Crypto.com has two main products: the centralized exchange and the DeFi wallet. In the DeFi wallet, it is already possible to interact via the Ethereum network and two own blockchains: "Crypto.org Chain" and "Cronos". "Crypto.org Chain is a blockchain application built using Cosmos SDK and Tendermint, intended as a backbone for some of the existing and future Crypto.org ecosystem". It was released about 1 year ago. "Chronos is the compatible EVM chain running in parallel to the Crypto.org Chain (opens new window). It aims to massively scale the DeFi Chain ecosystem, by providing developers with the ability to rapidly port apps from Ethereum and EVM-compatible chains, with funding from Particle B's $100m EVM fund (opens new window) and access to the 10M+ user base of the Crypto.com ecosystem". It was released on 8 Nov 2021. CRO is the native currency of these blockchains to pay gas and make transactions, just as BNB is from the Binance network. Summary In my view, Crypto.com has an undervalued market value compared to larger exchanges like Binance. Also, her marketcap is smaller than worthless projects like DogeCoin and XRP. So, with the portability coming from the Cronos blockchain to Dapps that already run on the Ethereum network, the trend is to grow even more. On-Chain Analysis We consider relevant the Glassnode indicator "Average Value of a Transfer in USD". Every time we hit a peak (red arrow), we usually hit a top. Except for the green arrow this did not happen. Therefore, it is recommended to stay alert when this transfer spike reoccurs. Looking at Fibonaci, the next target I believe is $1.30
GLASSNODE:CRO_MEANVOLUMEUSDLong
by andre_007
3
Bitcoin: Mayer Multiple analysisThe orange line is 200-day moving average is represented as a line on charts and represents the average price over the past 200 days or 40 weeks. If we look at the chart 200DMA plays its role as resistance during the bear market and during a bull market, it acts as a support line. The Mayer Multiple simply takes the ratio between the price and 200 days. When the price is much higher than 200 days and becoming far away from the line, it wants to go back (overvalued Mayer Multiple), conversely when it is below the 200DMA and keep falling, highly likely that trend reversal is going to happen soon, aka undervalued Mayer Multiple. - 0.8% - undervalued, 20% below the Mayer Multiple - 2.4 is overvalued, 2.4 times larger than the moving average. So by multiplying 200DMA by 0.8 or 0.24 we can establish a pricing band. If we look at the peaks in January and February we see that we jumped above that 2.4 and then we went back to the undervalued zone. The current situation shows us that we are on the way to 100k or above once we reach 2.4 line. It is not financial advice. Inspired by Glassnode
by Elias-Lo