OTE: Stock Breathes Again After Romania Exit OTE: Stock Breathes Again After Romania Exit – Strong Support from AXIA – Bullish Rebound from Key Support Zone (TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
KONSTANTINOS GKOUGKAKIS – July 30, 2025, 07:31
Romania is over, shareholder returns are next. OTE’s strategic exit from the loss-making Romanian mobile market (Telekom Romania Mobile) gives the Group renewed momentum. AXIA Ventures sees clear positive impact on liquidity and OTE’s investment profile.
A Move the Market Was Waiting For
The green light from Romanian authorities for the sale of Telekom Romania Mobile (TKRM) didn’t come as a surprise—but the market reaction revealed how eagerly it was anticipated. For years, OTE was trapped in a challenging investment in Romania. Now, the Group breathes easier, freeing itself from a burden that dragged down cash flows, operations, and stock dynamics.
What AXIA Says – Capital Relief, Liquidity and Shareholder Rewards
AXIA Ventures is clear and direct: the deal will have a positive effect on free cash flow and capital returns to shareholders. AXIA estimates an immediate cash flow benefit of €10 million for 2025, with €20–30 million annually thereafter. At the same time, they foresee a €40–50 million increase in shareholder capital returns, translating to at least a 10% boost in total yield to shareholders for 2025.
Cash Flows Without TKRM – OTE Gets Breathing Room
TKRM was expected to have a negative €70 million cash flow impact in 2025—a figure already baked into OTE’s guidance of €460 million free cash flow, of which €451 million (or 98%) is planned for distribution:
€298 million in dividends
€153 million in share buybacks
With the Romania exit, OTE gains a fresh window for special capital returns beyond what’s already planned. Management has confirmed that any additional net cash benefit from the transaction will be returned to shareholders, reinforcing market confidence.
A Costly Chapter Closes – The Numbers Speak
TKRM came at a high price. In 2024 alone, the subsidiary posted €143 million in losses, adding to a decade-long total exceeding €440 million. Equity was wiped out, and the operation was sustained only by Group funding. While the sale doesn’t command a high price tag, it helps avoid hundreds of millions in future losses and unlocks a tax credit of over €100 million, according to AXIA.
The total estimated benefit stands at €560 million—or €1.39 per share.
Stability and Strategic Clarity
OTE stock needed a catalyst like this. Despite solid fundamentals and international momentum, the uncertainty around TKRM was a drag. Now, the picture is clear:
Strategic cleanup is complete
Focus shifts fully to profitability and Greece
The investment story becomes positive, predictable, and scalable
No surprise that AXIA maintains a “buy” rating with a €19.5 price target. Similarly, NBG Securities sees a 29% upside (targeting €19.8), calling OTE an “ideal pick for defensive portfolios.”
A Two-Step Deal – Vodafone and Digi Split the Assets
The Romanian deal involves two separate transactions:
Digi Communications will acquire TKRM’s prepaid mobile customers, spectrum licenses, and part of the base station infrastructure.
Vodafone Romania will acquire the rest of TKRM’s equity, excluding 7 shares owned by Radiocomunicații.
Final closing is pending approval from ANCOM (Romanian telecom regulator) and is expected within Q3 2025.
The Bigger Picture: OTE on a New Trajectory
The Romania exit is part of a wider strategic transformation. OTE is betting on technological leadership, leveraging the global Telekom brand, and targeted capital returns.
COSMOTE leads with 70% 5G SA coverage and 99% total population reach.
Investments in FTTH, FWA, AI-RAN, and MagentaONE build an integrated digital services ecosystem.
Srini Gopalan’s “un-carrier mindset” strategy signals OTE is no longer playing defense—it's attacking with tech and international scale.
Why Now? Why This Way?
Simple answer: it had to happen. The Romanian mobile venture had failed. Exiting now—while tough at first—paves the way for better capital allocation, higher returns, and strategic clarity.
The market got the message. AXIA confirmed it. And the stock finally took the breather it needed to restart its climb.
OTE Technical Analysis – July 30, 2025
Short-Term Picture: Bullish Reaction from Strong Support Zone
OTE stock shows clear signs of recovery after a period of pressure. Accumulation around €15.00–15.20 created a solid support base, confirmed by Buy signals and strong green volume spikes.
The current price sits at €15.83, posting a +0.44% daily gain, and approaches the critical 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at €16.12—a key intermediate resistance between the low of €15.02 and the high of €17.89.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.382 at €15.79: already breached (bullish sign)
0.5 at €16.12: immediate resistance
0.618 at €16.45: strong resistance level; a break here could lead to retesting €17.00–17.80
A clean breakout above €16.12 would be a bullish confirmation, targeting €16.80–17.20.
MACD – Momentum Strengthening
The MACD is turning bullish:
MACD Line: -0.0188, rising toward
Signal Line: -0.0884
Histogram: +0.0696, indicating momentum buildup
A bullish crossover is expected soon, reinforcing the positive bias.
RSI – No Overbought Signals, Room to Rise
The RSI is at 59.91, not yet in overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before any pullback. The RSI-based moving average sits at 45.53, confirming upward momentum.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
EMA 20: €15.50
EMA 50: €15.72
EMA 100: €15.97
EMA 200: €15.93
Price is currently above all major EMAs, reinforcing the bullish scenario. A possible Golden Cross could materialize on the 4-hour chart. Staying above EMA 100 (€15.97) will be key.
Volume – Breakout Confirmed by Strong Demand
Volume surged significantly during the breakout above €15.60, validating buyer interest. Green bars dominate the latest sessions, showing a shift in sentiment and confirming demand.
Momentum with Structure, But Watch Key Zones
OTE’s stock has entered a positive momentum phase, with several technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Fibonacci) pointing to potential continuation. Recent news about the TKRM sale adds fuel.
Still, the €16.12–16.45 zone is critical. A clean breakout on strong volume could lead to a full recovery of June’s losses and pave the way for new 2025 highs.
