XAUUSD Update – Down Continuation to 3250?1. What Happened Yesterday
After an anemic correction that formed a bearish flag, Gold finally broke below 3300 and even dipped under the 3280 support zone — which was my primary downside target. While the move during the day didn’t have enough momentum to reach my second sell limit, I was already in a low-volume short position, so I didn’t miss the move entirely.
2. The Key Question
Has the drop ended, or are we looking at further downside?
3. Why I Expect More Downside
• The overall structure remains bearish.
• The newly formed resistance (previous support) is now the new sell zone.
• If the price drops towards 3280 again, continuation to 3250 becomes very probable.
4. Trading Plan
Selling rallies remains the preferred strategy, especially on spikes into resistance. As long as the price stays below 3335-3340 zone, the bearish outlook remains intact.
5. Conclusion
Sell the rallies. The technical picture still favors downside continuation — no need to overcomplicate it. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Community ideas
#XRP Update #5 – July 29, 2025#XRP Update #5 – July 29, 2025
The long position we opened two days ago is still active, and as I mentioned earlier, I’m not planning to use a stop. In the previous trade, we took profit with 30% of our capital at the $3.33 level. Although there has been a pullback, I’m still holding the position. I have no intention of placing a stop and will continue by averaging down if necessary.
Currently, XRP has reacted from the K-Level zone. Its target is the $3.93 level, but the first major resistance it needs to break is at $3.66. I’m continuing to hold the position for now.
Why Riot Stock Dropped After Q2 Earnings Despite Good NumbersWhen I first saw Riot Platforms' Q2 2025 earnings report, the numbers looked impressive at first glance. The company posted net income of $219.5 million, a dramatic turnaround from recent quarters. But as I dug deeper into the details, it became clear why the stock sold off despite what appeared to be strong results.
The most immediate red flag for me was the revenue miss. While Riot reported $153.0 million in revenue against the FactSet consensus of $156.3 million. Given Riot's recent track record of disappointing investors, this miss reinforced concerns about management's ability to meet their own guidance.
What really caught my attention, though, was the composition of that $219.5 million in net income. The company benefited from a massive $470 million gain on changes in Bitcoin's fair value, which was partially offset by a $158 million loss on contract settlements. This tells me that the earnings quality is questionable at best. Strip away the mark-to-market accounting gains from Bitcoin appreciation, and the underlying operational performance looks far less impressive.
I'm particularly concerned about the deteriorating unit economics in Riot's core mining business. The cost to mine each Bitcoin has essentially doubled to around $49,000 compared to $25,300 in the same quarter last year. This dramatic increase stems from the Bitcoin halving event and rising network difficulty, but it fundamentally undermines the investment thesis for Bitcoin miners. Even with Bitcoin trading at elevated levels, these higher production costs are compressing margins and eating into what should be a period of strong profitability.
In the previous quarter, Riot missed earnings estimates by over 260%, posting a net loss of $296 million. The company has now missed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, creating a pattern that's hard for investors to ignore. This track record of disappointing execution has clearly eroded confidence in management's ability to deliver consistent results.
In terms of hashrate, Riot only ranked #6 among public miners, after Mara, IREN, Cleanspark, Cango, and BitFuFu.
ZORA 5-Wave Completion — 30% Crash Incoming?After exploding +1150% in just 20 days and completing all 5 waves, ZORA is now consolidating — trading sideways just under the $0.10 psychological level for the past 4 days.
📉 Current Market Structure
The current structure shows signs of a developing Head & Shoulders pattern, with price:
Trading below the daily open (dOpen) and weekly open (wOpen) → Bearish signs
Hovering near the prior daily open (pdOpen) → a breakdown here would confirm bearish continuation
🔴 Short Setup - Bearish Scenario
If ZORA breaks below pdOpen, we’re likely heading for:
0.618 Fib retracement at $0.06137 of the final wave 5
Confluence with 1.272 Trend-Based Fib Extension (TBFE) at $0.06148
This zone marks the next high-probability reaction point and a potential long opportunity if price shows a bounce or reversal.
📉 Overall Short Trade Target
The full retracement target sits between $0.0529 and $0.0514, offering multiple layers of confluence:
0.5 Fib retracement of the full 1150% move
0.786 Fib retracement of the final wave 5
Aligned with an old trading range and daily level
This makes it an ideal demand zone for patient bulls but only once price confirms.
💡 Educational Insight
This setup highlights an example of Elliott Wave Theory in action — after a strong 5-wave impulse move, markets often enter a corrective phase. The completion of wave 5, especially near key psychological levels like $0.10, often marks a local top, where price corrects toward key Fibonacci retracement zones.
Combining wave structure with confluence factors like Fib levels, VWAP, and prior trading ranges helps traders identify high-probability reversal zones — allowing for better timing, risk management, and trade planning. Always wait for confirmation before jumping into any trades.
Summary
Bearish continuation confirmed on pdOpen breakdown
First support zone: $0.0613–$0.0614
Final downside target: $0.0529–$0.0514
Look for long opportunities only on reaction + confirmation
_________________________________
💬 If you found this helpful, drop a like and comment!
Want breakdowns of other charts? Leave your requests below.
Tesla (TSLA) – VolanX Forecast: The Calm Before the Storm?📊 Tesla (TSLA) – VolanX Forecast: The Calm Before the Storm?
Wave structure analysis + liquidity map + roadmap to $513
🧩 The Story So Far – Compressed Potential
Tesla has spent the past three months inside a contracting triangle (ABCDE) — a classic Elliott Wave corrective pattern that signals energy compression before expansion. From the May high (Wave (1)), price has been coiling within tightening range boundaries, forming lower highs and higher lows. The triangle culminates with leg (E), now hovering near support.
🟠 VolanX flags this as a terminal wedge—an area where institutions test both sides of the book, hunting liquidity.
🌀 Wave Forecast – Impulse Awakening
If the triangle completes as expected, we enter Wave (3)—typically the most explosive wave in Elliott sequences.
Here's how the projected roadmap unfolds:
Wave (2) ends around $288.20–$271.00 (key demand/liquidity zone)
Wave (3) initiates from this springboard, aiming toward:
📈 1.0 Fib Extension at $367.71
📈 1.618 Extension at $457.84
Consolidation expected at that level forms Wave (4)
Final thrust into Wave (5) targets $513.51, aligning with extended Fib projection and historical order block
This sequence respects classical Elliott impulse structure: 5-wave motive into macro target zone.
🧪 Timing & Liquidity – Watch the Clock, Watch the Flow
🗓 Key Windows from chart verticals:
Aug 27–Sep 1, 2025: Liquidity test at $288.20 zone
Oct 1–15, 2025: Expansion toward Wave (3)
By mid-November 2025: Completion of Wave (5) → exhaustion at $513 zone before probable macro retracement
🔍 Liquidity Zones:
$288.20 – Institutional reaccumulation level (VolanX confirms large resting bids)
$271.00 – Final sweep zone. Break below would invalidate bullish count
Above, $336.70–$351.19 is the first liquidity magnet
Major stops above $457.84, then final cluster $513.51
🧠 VolanX Opinion – AI View on Risk & Opportunity
VolanX signals high-probability breakout setup, with confluence across:
Liquidity clusters
Fibonacci symmetry
Elliott sequencing
Gamma positioning (institutional hedging tilts long below $290)
📈 Current predictive bias: 68% probability of breakout from triangle resolving bullishly, conditional on $288 support holding.
If tested and respected, AI favors aggressive repositioning in long gamma, echoing historical TSLA breakout behavior.
📌 Strategy Summary:
“I think they shall test this… I could be wrong. But if momentum holds, $288.20 bounce is likely. If not, wait for structure to rebuild before long.”
🧭 Trade Setup (Not Financial Advice):
Watch zone: $288–271
Confirmation: Strong rejection wick + volume delta flip
Stop: Below $267.57
Targets: $367.71 → $457.84 → $513.51
🔻 Risk comes from invalidation below $271.
⚡ Reward stems from recognizing compression before expansion.
#TSLA #VolanX #ElliottWave #LiquiditySweep #WaveAnalysis #FibonacciLevels #SmartMoney #OptionsFlow #TeslaForecast #AITrading #WaverVanir
How to accurately grasp the gold trading opportunitiesGold was greatly affected by the positive non-farm payroll data, and it rose strongly, with the increase completely covering all the losses this week. The current gold trend has completely reversed the previous bull-short balance. After breaking through the 3300 level and rising to around 3355, it maintains strong upward momentum, and the possibility of further testing the 3360-3375 area cannot be ruled out. Due to the strong positive data, if everyone fails to chase the long position or set a breakout long position in time in the first wave of the market, the subsequent pullback opportunities may be relatively limited, so it is necessary to maintain an active strategy in operation. It is recommended to continue to be bullish when it retreats to the 3335-3320 area, and the upper target is the 3360-3375 pressure range.
We might be changing the trend in the coming months!I found this indicator extremely accurate for the past tops. We are focusing on the histogram today and looking once that green candles starts growing momentum taking BTC down the hill. If this idea proves right we might be bottoming around 400 days perhaps August 2026 ~45k
S&P 500 ETF & Index– Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction📉📊 S&P 500 ETF & Index at Resistance – Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction 🔍⚠️
Everything here is pure technicals— but sometimes, the market whispers loud and clear if you know how to listen. 🧠📐
The VOO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500 , has now reached the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, once again brushing against resistance near 590.85. This zone has consistently led to major pullbacks in the past.
On the right panel, the US500 Index mirrors this move—pushing toward all-time highs, right as broader sentiment turns euphoric. Technically, both charts are overextended and pressing into key zones.
👀 Potential Path:
🔻 Rejection from current zone ➝ Down toward 526.17, then 465.72 (green support channel)
🔁 Possible bounce after correction — trend still intact long term
And while we’re keeping it technical, it’s worth noting that the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) i s currently screaming “overvaluation.” This doesn't predict timing—but it adds macro context to an already overheated chart setup.
The lesson? Price respects structure. Whether or not the fundamentals are in agreement, the charts are warning that now may not be the time to chase.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Stay sharp, stay technical. 🎯
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
ps. the beauty of these levels? Tight Stop loss- excellent R/R
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Dow Jones: Explosive US30 Trade Setup – Entry,Trap & Exit Mapped💎 Dow Jones Robbery Blueprint: The US30 Vault Crack Plan 💎
(Maximized for reach — within TradingView title limit)
🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Market Robbers & Money Movers 🕵️♂️💰🚨
This ain't your average analysis — it’s a Thief Trader-style 🔥tactical mission🔥 aimed at the mighty "US30/DJI" (Dow Jones Industrial Average). We're talkin' about a precision heist with a full blueprint: entry zones, trap setups, and escape exits. Read carefully — this ain’t for the faint-hearted traders! 🧠🦾
🧠 Entry Zones (The Break-In) 📈
🛠 ENTRY 1: Candle wick near 44200.0 – that’s the resistance gate. Wait for confirmation.
🎯 ENTRY 2: Sneak in at the Market Makers’ Trap around 43200.00 – a dirty zone where retailers get baited. Perfect time to strike long!
🧱 DCA/Layering strategy recommended. Stack those buy orders like a thief layering explosives on a safe. 💣💸
🛑 Risk Levels (Escape Routes/Stop Loss)
🔊 "Listen up, vault raiders! Never drop your SL until breakout is confirmed. If you jump early, you might land in a bear trap! 🪤"
🔐 Stop Zones (Based on Strategy):
🔐 Max Risk SL (5H TF): If you're deep, your last stand is at 43000.0
☝️ SL depends on your position sizing, number of entries, and risk appetite. Trade like a thief, not a gambler.
🎯 Heist Target (Profit Exit)
🏁 Escape Point: 46000.0 — or exit before heat rises! Don’t be greedy. Rob and vanish. 💨💰
🔥 Market Mood: Why the Heist Is On
"US30/DJI" is bullish AF — thanks to:
📊 Macro-Economic Wind at Our Back
📈 Institutional momentum
📰 Strong sentiment and intermarket flows
Check your chart radar: Fundamentals + technicals aligning = green light for robbery! 🟢
⚠️ Tactical Reminder: News Can Jam the Plan
📵 Avoid new entries during major economic releases
🛡 Use trailing SLs to protect running trades
Stay alert, stay alive. 💡
❤️ Support the Robbery Crew
Hit that 💥BOOST💥 — your love fuels our next mission.
Join us and ride daily heist plans with Thief Trading Style 🏴☠️🚀💰
MEMEUSDT 8H#MEME has formed a Cup and Handle pattern on the 8H timeframe. It has bounced nicely off the SMA100, and volume is showing signs of strong accumulation.
📌 Consider entering this coin only after a solid breakout above the resistance zone.
If the breakout occurs, the potential targets are:
🎯 $0.002369
🎯 $0.002675
🎯 $0.003064
⚠️ As always, use a tight stop-loss and apply proper risk management.
TRADE IDEA – EUR/USD SHORT (T2 TRAP REVERSAL)🔻 TRADE IDEA – EUR/USD SHORT (T2 TRAP REVERSAL)
📍 ENTRY ZONE: 1.1560 – 1.1580
🎯 TARGETS:
• TP1 = 1.150
• TP2 = 1.140
• TP3 = 1.130
• TP4 = 1.120
🛡️ STOP LOSS: 1.1600 (above Tier 2 trap extension)
📐 STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT:
• T1 (Macro): 🔻 Down
• T2 (Structure): 🔻 Trap Zone Active (161.8%)
• T3 (Execution): ⚠️ Rejection confirmed via M1 spike + engulf
• T4 (Micro): 🧨 Trap spike → lower high forming
📊 EXECUTION LOGIC:
• M1 rejection at 1.1580 confirmed
• Bearish engulf candle formed post-spike
• Multiple shorts laddered (1.1565 / 1.1580)
• SL held above extension zone
• Price now below both entries
🚦 TRADE STATE: ⚔️ ARMED
• Add-on only valid under 1.1560
• SL trail after 1.1550 break
• No long bias unless 1.1610 breaks with body close
#Renko #FractalCodex #EURUSD #ShortSetup #TrapReversal #Fibonacci #PriceAction
DOGEUSDT|Pullback Confluent Support -cup&handle next ext. +80%DOGE - retraced at the confluent support zone, high potential pullback buy position:
- SMA50 Dynamic support—often attracts mean-reversion buys.
- cup & handle support retest Price retested prior breakout zone—flips resistance to support.
- key 38% Fib “sweet spot” pullback level after corrective moves.
- Previous Change of Character marks shift from bearish to bullish structure—support confluence.
Potential Entry & Risk Management
Entry Zone
- Aggressive: immediate handle breakout support
- Conservative: Wait for liquidity pattern and re-bounce confirmation candle above SMA50
Stop-Loss
-Below Cup Handle low -10% larger position prior swing high RR:2.5/1
-Suggested SL: previous low -0.17 USDT - 5% below entry
Initial Targets
-Key resistance 61.8% Fib retracement — 0.217 USD
-100% Prior swing high — 0.26 USD
-162% Next extended target - 0.35 USD
Trade Rationale
-Mean-reversion into SMA50 and Fib 38.2% zone aligns multiple buyers.
-Pattern support: Cup & handle retest confirms breakout strength.
-Structure flip: CoCh zone indicates bullish regime shift.
Watch-Outs
-Rejection below 0.188 USD erodes support cluster—invalidates setup.
-Rising volume on bounce is crucial—low-volume lifts often fail.
-Beware broader market sell-offs impacting altcoins.
Next Steps:
-Monitor 4-hour candlestick close inside entry zone.
-Check volume spike on reversal candle.
-Adjust risk dynamically if price gravitates toward upper channel resistance.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stop..
GOLD TRADING PLAN – Triangle Squeeze, All Eyes on NFP【XAU/USD】GOLD TRADING PLAN – Triangle Squeeze, All Eyes on NFP
Gold continues to trade within a large symmetrical triangle, tightening toward the end of its range. However, current candle structure shows clear bullish momentum, indicating the potential for a strong upside breakout.
🔍 Today’s Key Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Market expectations are pointing to weaker-than-expected US economic data, which could trigger strong FOMO-buying for gold if confirmed. A poor NFP report would likely weaken the USD, supporting bullish continuation.
🔑 Strategy and Key Technical Levels:
Watch for a confirmed breakout above the descending trendline to trigger Wave 3 of the bullish structure.
CP ZONE + OBS BUY ZONE triggered yesterday already yielded 160+ pips profit.
Strategy: Prefer buy-the-dip entries. SELL setups only valid on strong resistance rejection. Avoid counter-trend trades near breakout zones.
🟩 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3276 – 3274
Stop Loss: 3270
Take Profits:
3280, 3284, 3290, 3294, 3300, 3305, 3310, 3320, 3330, 3340, 3350
🟥 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3339 – 3341
Stop Loss: 3345
Take Profits:
3335, 3330, 3325, 3320, 3315, 3310, 3305
My Trading Journal on EU 01.08.2025On the first day of August 2025, I am entering a new month filled with opportunities. I am eager to see how the EU performs today, as it has influenced my last two trades. I hope that today marks either a strong or weak start to the month. Let's see how the market reacts in New York.
Be cautious with your trades and remember to pay attention to the high-impact news today: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Employment Change reports.
Silver coiling price action support at 3600The Silver remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a continuation breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 3600 – a key level from the previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 3600 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
3756 – initial resistance
3855 – psychological and structural level
3915 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 3600 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3544 – minor support
3480 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Silver holds above 3600. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
XRP 1H – 21% Decline Off the HighAfter hitting a strong resistance near $3.75, XRP has been in a steady downtrend, losing over 20% from its peak. The chart shows clear lower highs and a strong descending resistance line capping every bounce. Price action remains bearish, but short-term momentum (via Stoch RSI) shows signs of being oversold — hinting at a potential relief bounce.
To flip bias, bulls would need a clean break of the trendline and reclaim the $3.15–$3.25 area. Until then, lower highs + sustained sell volume = caution for longs.
📌 20.6% decline
📌 Downtrend intact
📌 Momentum diverging — bounce or continuation?
This setup is primed for a mean-reversion or further breakdown — stay reactive, not predictive.
**#XAUUSD H5 Higher Timeframe Analysis**
📊 **#XAUUSD H5 Higher Timeframe Analysis**
What we witnessed today was a **tremendous recovery in Gold 🟡** after **3–4 consecutive bearish sessions 📉**.
📅 **Today’s candle** has **completely flipped the weekly structure**, turning a fully **bearish weekly candle into a bullish one 📈** — thanks to the **NFP data** that came in **favor of Gold and against the Dollar 💵❌**.
🔍 However, price is now approaching a **critical confluence zone**:
* 🧭 A **long-running trendline** (since April)
* 🔴 An **H4 Bearish Order Block**
* 📐 The **Fibonacci Golden Zone (0.50–0.618)** at **3362–3372**
📌 **From this level, we have two possible scenarios:**
1️⃣ **Sharp Rejection 🔻:**
Price may **reverse sharply** from the 3362–3372 zone and **resume the bearish trend**.
2️⃣ **Breakout & Trap Theory 🔺:**
If price **sustains above this zone**, it may signal that the recent **3–4 day drop was a fake breakdown**, designed to **trap sellers** and grab liquidity for a **further upside move**.
✅ **Confirmation will come if we get an H4–H6 bullish candle close above the trendline** and back inside the **buying zone of 3375–3390**.
🔓 **A breakout above the triangle pattern** will likely lead to a **strong bullish continuation 📈🚀**.
AVAX/USDT: Bullish Reversal at MA Support & Daily OversoldHello traders,
Today's analysis focuses on a high-probability long setup for AVAX/USDT on the 4H timeframe. The price has pulled back to a critical area where a confluence of powerful technical indicators suggests a significant bounce or reversal is imminent.
1. Trend & Context (The "Why")
Following a strong uptrend, AVAX entered a corrective phase, marked by a Bearish Change of Character (ChoCh). This correction has now brought the price to an A+ support zone.
Here are the key confluences for this bullish setup:
Major Support Cluster: The price is currently reacting to a critical support cluster formed by the EMA 200 and EMA 400. These long-term moving averages are major levels where institutions often step in to buy.
Momentum Exhaustion (MC Orderflow): The Innotrade MC Orderflow oscillator provides the critical confirmation that selling pressure is exhausted:
The oscillator is deep in the OVERSOLD territory on the 4H chart.
THE CRITICAL MTF CONFLUENCE: The Multi-Timeframe Cycle Table is the most important factor here. It shows that both the 4H and Daily timeframes are "Oversold". This alignment of higher timeframe momentum at a key technical support level is a very powerful signal for a reversal.
2. Entry, Stop Loss, and Targets (The "How")
The alignment of these factors gives us a clear and actionable trade plan with a great risk-to-reward profile.
Entry: An entry around the current price ($21.50 - $22.10) is ideal, as we are right at the MA support cluster.
Stop Loss (SL): $21.20. This places the stop loss safely below the EMA 400 and the recent swing low, providing a clear invalidation point for the setup.
Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: $24.00 (Targeting the Bearish ChoCh level and the cluster of short-term EMAs).
TP2: $26.50 (The next major swing high, a logical area of resistance).
TP3: $27.40 (The major high of the entire range, a longer-term target if the uptrend resumes).
Conclusion
This trade setup is of very high quality due to the powerful confluence of a major MA support cluster with a confirmed multi-timeframe momentum exhaustion signal (4H and Daily). This synergy creates a high-probability environment for a significant bullish reversal.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
Bitcoin at $110,000?After reaching its last ATH, Bitcoin practically went into a coma. Now, with the strengthening of the dollar, it's undergoing a correction — and if that correction deepens, there's a possibility it could drop to \$110,000. We'll have to see whether it finds support around the \$112,000 level or not.
Bitcoin (BTC): 200EMA is Key Are Currently | Red Monthly OpeningBTC had a really sharp start to the month, and we are back near $115K, which was a key zone for us last time (due to huge orders sitting there).
Now, we see a similar struggle like last time but not quite the same, as the 200EMA has aligned with the $115K area. We are now looking for any signs of MSB, as we think we might get a recovery from here.
Now if we do not recover right now (by the end of today), we are going to see a really deep downside movement during the weekend most likely!
Swallow Academy
NDX – Double Top & Divergence (H4, D FRL Setup)Hello friends! It's time for our beloved Nasdaq index to cool down. I expect a correction amid the strengthening of the dollar.
H4: clear Double Top forming near 23,000.
Daily: bearish MACD divergence confirms momentum shift.
📐 FRL (H4): neckline at 23,000, perfectly aligned with 100 SMA on H4.
🎯 Target: 0.618 Fib retracement at 20,500 – confluence with 100 & 200 SMA on Daily and strong horizontal support.