OIL - shortFollowing our previous forecasted up-move, from now on we will switch to looking for sell setups only. We would normally expect the C wave of the corrective pattern retrace all the way to the 0.618 fib of the downward impulse, as the A wave had already retraced to the 0.382. But that isn't necessarily always the case. As long as the C retracement has broken the top of the A retracement, the pattern formally speaking can be complete. We will not be looking for further buys, therefore, from now on. Even if it does continue to the 0.618, we will skip the eventual buy and focus on the sells. At the same time, because the eventuality of more up exists, we will wait for a proper sell setup before we enter any short position. Updates will follow.
Community ideas
7/31/25 - $birk - PSA from a $DECK owner...7/31/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BIRK
PSA from a NYSE:DECK owner...
- not as close to this one as NYSE:DECK
- but it's hard enough to own names NYSE:DECK (reported nice beat and good indiation on 2H) and NASDAQ:LULU that reports end of aug with 6+% fcf yields and trading in the mid teens
- i "get" birkenstock is a great brand
- but should it trade high 20s when, honestly, it's not 2x-ish the quality of say "hoka" or "lululemon" brands? tough one
- it's more of a recent IPO too, which means still mkt (generally) has had less time to fully understand it... say over the period of time as it has NYSE:DECK and NASDAQ:LULU nevermind other stuff.
- i'm not suggesting this is a short
- but if i owned it, id probably swap it for one of the two above
- flagging this consideration for anyone before they FAFO
V
BTCUSDT ISHS Breakout with Bullish Pennant ContinuationBTC is holding above a clean neckline breakout from a inverse head and shoulders formation, currently consolidating inside a bullish pennant. A breakout from this range offers continuation potential to $136K and possibly to $168K. Bias remains bullish while price holds above the $114K region.
Market Structure
• Trend: Bullish continuation
• Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders + Bullish Pennant
• Price Action: Clean breakout and retest of neckline support, followed by tightening consolidation
Key Zones
• Immediate Demand Zone: $114,000 – $117,000
• Internal Demand Zone: $105,000 – $108,000
• Major Setup Support Zone: $98,000 – $101,000
• Base Support (ISHS Origin): $74,500 – $77,000
• Neckline: $111,700-$113,800 (Confirmed pivot level)
Technical Confluence
• Volume: Strong candle breakout through neckline, followed by low-volume bullish flag
• Price Geometry: ISHS measured move aligns with the final target at $168K
• Momentum: Bullish structure maintained with higher lows and reactive demand
Entry Plan
• Zone: $117,500 – $119,000
• Method: Limit buy on demand retest or breakout retest of $123K
• Execution: Swing entry with invalidation below demand base
Targets
• 🎯 TP1: $136,442 — Pennant measured move
• 🎯 TP2: $168,029 — Final ISHS target
Invalidation
• ❌ SL: Below $110,000
• Reason: Break below ISHS Neckline invalidates bullish thesis in the short term
• RRR: Estimated 1:4 depending on execution
If this structure aligns with your outlook, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
You’re also welcome to drop your preferred altcoins for a quick technical review.
GBPUSD Is Going Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 1.319.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.345 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook – Key Breakout or BreakdownWTI Crude Oil 4-hour chart suggests a potential inflection point after a strong bullish breakout from a larger symmetrical triangle pattern in late July. The price surged past key resistance levels and is now consolidating in a smaller symmetrical triangle formation just below the psychological $70 mark. This indicates a phase of indecision following a strong move, with market participants awaiting further confirmation.
Price is currently hovering around $69.82, with key levels marked at $71.03 (resistance) and $69.05 (support). The short-term price action within the tight triangle could determine the next move, with both bullish continuation and bearish reversal scenarios on the table.
Prices remain supported by supply concerns after Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude and warned China, a major oil consumer of severe penalties if it continues its purchases of Russian oil.
🔍 Potential Scenarios
- Bullish Breakout Scenario
If price breaks out of the smaller symmetrical triangle to the upside and clears the $70 resistance level with strong momentum, it may quickly test the $71.03 zone. A clean break above $71.03 would confirm the continuation of the previous uptrend, potentially opening room toward $72.50 and beyond in the medium term. The pattern would resemble a bullish pennant — a continuation pattern following the late July rally.
-Bearish Rejection and Breakdown
Conversely, a failure to sustain above $70 followed by a break below the lower boundary of the smaller triangle could lead to a sharper decline. The first critical level to watch would be $69.05; a break below this would likely invalidate the bullish setup and initiate a retest of the previously broken upper trendline of the larger triangle near $67.50. A further breakdown could lead price towards the larger support zone around $65–$66.
📈 Trend Outlook
- Short-Term: Neutral to Bullish — Consolidation in a smaller symmetrical triangle suggests a pause before continuation. However, the structure is still technically bullish unless $69.05 is broken.
- Medium-Term: Bullish Bias — The breakout from the large symmetrical triangle in late July indicates a shift in market sentiment, favoring higher prices unless the price fails to hold above $67.50.
- Long-Term: Cautiously Bullish — As long as WTI holds above the $65–$66 structural support area, the longer-term outlook remains constructive.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
$TOTAL at Key SupportThe crypto market cap has just bounced off a strong support zone around $3.67T, right where it aligns with the rising trendline.
This area has held firm before, and it's doing the same now.
If it continues to hold, we could see a nice recovery.
But if it breaks down, there’s a risk of more downside ahead.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Bearish Momentum Towards Fair Value BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Bearish Momentum Towards Fair Value Gap
Bitcoin is showing clear bearish pressure after rejecting from the previous resistance zone around 118,800 – 120,000. The market structure and smart money concepts indicate potential for further downside.
🔍 Key Observations:
Previous Resistance Respected: Price failed to break through the strong resistance zone marked near the 119,200–120,000 level, showing strong institutional selling interest.
Market Structure Breaks:
BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed bearish shift.
Price has maintained lower highs and lower lows, signaling a bearish trend.
Liquidity/Fair Value Gap Zone: The market is currently targeting the liquidity/FVG zone between 116,400 – 116,100, which aligns with price inefficiency and unfilled orders.
Support Zone Ahead: A strong support zone is visible near 115,600 – 115,200. Expect a potential reaction or consolidation here.
📌 Strategy & Bias:
Short Bias Active until price reaches 116,116 (target).
Watch for possible bullish reversal signs in the support/FVG zone.
Ideal for scalp-to-swing short trades, with tight SL above recent EQH.
📚 Educational Notes:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) indicate institutional imbalances and are often revisited by price.
CHoCH and BOS are early signals of smart money moves – always monitor them in confluence with volume and zones.
AMD WEEKLY TRADE SIGNAL (7/31/25)
### 🚀 AMD WEEKLY TRADE SIGNAL (7/31/25)
📈 **MARKET SNAPSHOT**
🟢 Daily RSI: **86.0** 🔥
🟢 Weekly RSI: **80.4**
📊 Volume: 🔺 1.5x (Institutional surge)
💬 Call/Put Ratio: **1.90**
🌪 Gamma Risk: **HIGH (1DTE)**
🧠 Sentiment: **Extremely Bullish** across all models
---
💥 **TRADE IDEA**
📍 Ticker: **\ NASDAQ:AMD **
📈 Direction: **CALL (LONG)**
🎯 Strike: **\$190.00**
💵 Entry: **\$0.51**
🎯 Target: **\$0.90** (+75%)
🛑 Stop Loss: **\$0.30**
📆 Expiry: **Aug 1 (Friday)**
📊 Confidence: **85%**
⏰ Entry: Market Open (Time-sensitive!)
---
🧠 **STRATEGY CONTEXT**
✅ Bullish momentum from AI sector hype
✅ Institutional call buying volume spiking
⚠️ 1DTE = High Gamma Risk = TRADE FAST OR DON’T TRADE
⚠️ Manage decay & exit early if momentum stalls
---
📌 Signal Posted: 2025-07-31 @ 12:17 PM ET
\#AMD #OptionsAlert #AITrade #WeeklyOptions #TradingViewViral #1DTE #GammaSqueeze
Doge is a LaggerHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today we are looking at DOGE.
Normally I refuse to look at "Meme Coins" but with a 33 Billion Dollar Market cap, I don't think it falls into it's own category.
Doge, like many Crypto, have come alive. If this is one you are looking at, here are the Keys:
Short Term
A new seller did prevail as of July 23rd. It's important to note that they are still not in control of this rally. We need to see a key buyer get taken out first. This leads us to the scenario I have drawn.
Green Machine
Big buyers move markets... A lot. They can't buy what they want to buy on the open market without a reaction, so what do they do? Simple
Buy... then wait... then buy again near where they bought before.
So your "Strong buyer" is that area.
You have passive buyers looking to get a good price at 19.223 This would offer the greatest position for a reversal and a continuation.
Long
Entry - .19.250
Stop - .17.050
1st TP .24.050
2nd TP .28.600
Final TP .38.250
This should take at least a month. Be prepared to not look at it everyday.
Long Term
These prices should reflect your sentiment on DOGE.
Aggressive = .20.650
Good Price = .18.900 - 19.250
STEAL = 13.950 - 14.550
Thanks for reading, Don't forget to Boost and Follow !
Happy Trading
@thecafetrader
ASML monopolist, a +181% | 2Y oppertunityASML is the monopoly Extreme ultra violet machinery company. There is no one close to it's technology or there is no one investing enough to R&D a thing like it. The whole AI datacenter and cloud chip growth depends on EUV machinery of ASML developed in 2013 (>10y of PhD level R&D deveopment). The first new High-NA EUV systems have been deployed at Intel in July 2025 for research purposes and will scale just like the EUV already does to keep pace with moore's law. TSMC has stated it will not yet buy & depoly the newest machines jet, but has to expand with the 10 year older tech EUV machines just to get the AI chip demand going. AI chip demand at NVIDIA is growing harder than expected comfirmed by latest earnigns of alphabet, microsoft, meta and amazon. The whole AI data center growh depends on 2013 asml tech machines, and they already have a new tech High-NA EUV machine, just figure.
Also don't sleep on BESI a packing machinery wonder, due to hybrid bonding which makes stacking 3D chip structures possible.
#GoHighTechNetherlands
Gold Crashing After Hot U.S. Data – More Pain Ahead?Minutes ago, important indices were released from the US , which catalyzed the continuation of gold's downward trend .
Key U.S. Economic Data Just Dropped!
ADP Employment: 104K
GDP q/q: 3.0%
Both came in stronger than expected , signaling that the U.S. economy is holding up better than many thought!
Strong job growth
Solid economic expansion
The result? A stronger U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ) and potential downward pressure on Gold .
All eyes are now on FOMC meeting .
Will the Fed still hint at future rate cuts despite the solid data? Or is the easing cycle officially on hold? What is your idea!?
----------------------
Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has already managed to break the Support zone($3,350-$3,326) , Monthly Pivot Point , 50_EMA(Daily) , Support lines , and the lower line of the ascending channel . Also, Gold trading below $3,333 plays an important role for me, which can increase the possibility of a continuation of the downtrend .
I expect Gold to drop to at least the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) before the FOMO meeting and if the Support zone($3,307-$3,272) is broken, we can expect further declines to $3,253(Second Target) .
--------------------------------
Information we need to know:
How should the Federal Funds Rate be announced to cause a deeper drop in Gold ?
The Fed needs to take a hawkish stance — meaning:
They keep rates unchanged, but make it clear they intend to keep them elevated for a prolonged period.
They emphasize strong economic data like today's solid ADP and GDP numbers .
They express concern that inflationary risks remain, and cutting rates isn’t on the table anytime soon.
In this case, markets get disappointed, rate cut hopes fade, and gold drops as real yields( TVC:US10Y ) rise and the U.S. dollar strengthens.
--------------------------------
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,340
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
CHFJPY: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why
The price of CHFJPY will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsThis is how last night’s members chart played out and it was amazing. We opened at the top of the implied move and all of the spreads at the top paid as we dropped back to the 30in 200MA
The spreads I took at 6420/6435 but every spread shown here would have done well.
PPL – BUY SIGNAL (REVISIT / FLIP TRADE) | 01 AUGUST 2025 PPL – BUY SIGNAL (REVISIT / FLIP TRADE) | 01 AUGUST 2025
The stock has recently been moving within a bearish channel (marked light pink), which structurally qualifies as a bull flag. A decisive breakout from this flag has now occurred, followed by the formation of a strong bullish structure. This confirms upward momentum and provides solid structural support for a sustained rally.
XAUUSD 4H – Massive Sell Setup: Gold Crash Incoming? Gold (XAUUSD) just tapped into a key liquidity zone near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,364, followed by a sharp rejection. This aligns with the upper channel resistance and a bearish confluence from previous supply zones.
Price has failed to break above the dynamic EMA cluster and is showing signs of exhaustion after a relief rally. If momentum follows through, this could mark the beginning of a deeper selloff targeting major downside levels.
Short Setup
Entry: Around $3,349–$3,364 (rejection zone)
SL: Above $3,379
🚨Strong bearish engulfing candle confirms seller pressure
🎯 Take Profit Targets (Fibonacci):
TP1: $3,305 (38.2%)
TP2: $3,275 (61.8%)
TP3: $3,241 (Full move – 100% Fibonacci extension)
This setup offers high risk-reward if the rejection holds and price breaks below the mid-zone structure at $3,330. A drop below $3,305 could accelerate the move as liquidity gets swept.
How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand?
Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me.
Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned.
Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
BITCOIN PREDICTION: NOBODY IS WATCHING THIS PATTERN !!!(warning)Yello Paradisers, I'm updating you about the current Bitcoin situation, which is extremely dangerous for crypto noobs that will get rekt again very soon!
It's going to be a big move soon. I'm telling you on a high timeframe chart we are doing multi-time frame analysis and on a high timeframe chart I'm updating you about the RSI indicator, the bearish divergence, the moving average reclaim, and the channel reclaim that we are having right now.
We are observing a shooting star candlestick pattern, which is a reversal sign, and I'm telling you what confirmations I'm waiting for to make sure that I can say with the highest probability that we are going to the downside. On a medium timeframe, I'm showing you two patterns: one is a head and shoulders pattern, then a contracting triangle, and on a low time frame, I'm sharing with you the ending diagonal because on a high time frame chart, we are either creating ABC or impulse, and I'm telling you what the probabilities are for the zigzag, which is a corrective mode wave, or the impulse, which is a motive mode wave.
I'm sharing with you what's going to happen next with the highest probability. Please make sure that you are trading with a proper trading strategy and tactics, and that's the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.