USDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATEUSDCAD LONG FORECAST Q2 W25 D17 Y25 12:18 GMT UPDATE
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅1H order block
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bullish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Community ideas
BankNifty levels - Jun 18, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
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GBPAUD - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermM15 - Bearish divergence followed by the most recent uptrend line breakout.
Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows.
No opposite signs.
Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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NVDA at Gamma Cliff! Will Buyers Defend $143 or Drop to $140?🔬 GEX (Options Sentiment) Breakdown:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* CALL Walls / Resistance:
* $146.18 = Gamma Wall (currently rejected)
* $148.84 → 2nd CALL Wall
* $150+ = Higher GEX levels but unlikely short-term without breakout
* PUT Support Zones:
* $143 → active support (currently being tested)
* $140 → key gamma flip zone (GEX8)
* Below $140 → $138 / $135 → deep gamma pit
* GEX Metrics:
* IVR: 2.6 (extremely low = possible vol expansion coming)
* IVx avg: 38.8
* Calls Flow: 7.9% (weak call interest)
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🟢 (neutral-to-bullish positioning)
* Interpretation:
* NVDA is struggling at $146–147 gamma wall — rejection could cause dealer de-hedging toward $143 or even $140.
* IV is extremely suppressed → any large move could expand volatility and create rapid price shifts.
📊 15-Minute SMC Chart Breakdown:
* Current Price: $145.20
* Structure:
* Price broke bullish structure early session and reached supply near $146.18 → then CHoCH triggered at the top.
* Now pulling back into a minor demand box ($143.68–144.27).
* If demand fails here → eyes on deeper demand at $141.97 and $140.86.
* Major volume spike on pullback shows institutional selling near top.
* Trendline:
* Broke rising wedge → momentum flattening.
* Volume divergence (price up, volume down) followed by breakdown = warning.
🧭 Trade Setups:
🟥 Bearish Setup:
* Trigger: Break below $143.50
* Target 1: $141.97
* Target 2: $140 (GEX zone)
* Stop-loss: $146.20 (back inside supply = invalid)
Dealers could unwind hedges if price stays under $144, accelerating toward gamma-supported downside.
🟩 Bullish Reclaim Setup:
* Trigger: Reclaim and hold $146.20
* Target 1: $148.84 (2nd CALL Wall)
* Target 2: $150+
* Stop-loss: $143.60
This would trap late shorts and could cause a gamma squeeze toward $149–$150.
🧠 My Thoughts:
* NVDA is at the inflection, sandwiched between dealer defense at $146 and GEX vacuum under $143.
* If SPY/QQQ break lower tomorrow, NVDA could lead downside toward $140.
* Volatility is cheap (IVR 2.6), making options attractive if directional bias is strong.
* Ideal trade: wait for confirmation at $144–143 area before entering PUTs.
📌 Conclusion:
NVDA is showing short-term weakness under heavy gamma resistance at $146. A clean breakdown below $143.50 opens the door to $140 fast. Only a reclaim above $146.20 flips bias bullish again.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always trade your own plan and manage risk accordingly.
Bitcoin Consolidates Near Highs — Bullish Wedge Signals StrengthHolding Strong Amid Uncertainty:
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin remains resilient, trading near recent highs. This stability reflects strong institutional confidence and sustained accumulation by long-term holders.
Bullish Technical Setup:
The ongoing consolidation between $100,000 and $110,000 is forming a wedge pattern—a classic bullish continuation structure. This suggests the market is coiling for its next major move.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate Resistance: $112,500
Support Zone: Holding above $100,000 keeps the bullish case intact
Measured Move Target: $130,000–$135,000
Outlook:
This tight consolidation signals a healthy pause in a strong uptrend, positioning Bitcoin for a potential breakout and continuation higher. All signs point to the bulls remaining firmly in control.
#Bitcoin #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishWedge #CryptoMarket #InstitutionalBuying #PriceAction #Geopolitics #SupportAndResistance #BullRun
TRX Analysis - What Shall we Expect !!!We have a descending wedge, which may suggest a potential price drop. If the price breaks below the wedge, it could fall to the PRZ zone and then potentially rise.
Volume is decreasing, indicating a possible imminent breakout, which could go either way.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
Nifty levels - Jun 17, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
XOM - Bullish Trade ideaXOM Trade Idea... 🎯 Entry Plan:
Base Entry Zone (accumulation):
ENTRY OPTION 1: $110.60–$111.50 → Retest 12-moving average
ENTRY OPTION 2 momentum trigger: Bullish reversal candle on 2H or 1H + reclaim of $113.00 (this means let price break above $113 after you get a fresh inverse Arc or Level 3)
You will be looking for a break above $113.00–$113.50 with strong volume = direct continuation entry
🛡 Stop Loss:
Hard stop: $109.63
🏁 Take Profit Levels:
TP1: $113.63 → Near-term ceiling
TP2: $114.98
TP3: $116.64 → 2x ATR
TP4: $118.90 →
TP5 (macro): $123.41 → $135.41 → Swing level only for Aug expiry holders. "These levels can be hit if the war causes an oil shortage or oil prices to remain elevated"
AUDUSD Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.650.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.647 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
6/16/2025 3:33 AM PST - ChatGPTBTC/USD 15-Minute Chart Analysis – June 16, 2025 – 06:25 UTC-4
Exchange: Bitstamp | Current Price: $107,149
Trend: Short-term recovery from previous dump; nearing local resistance zone
Market Context: Rebound after consolidation below $106K; price testing $107.3K ceiling
📈 Technical Indicator Summary
1. RSI (14)
RSI: 67.40, close to overbought zone
Signal line: 69.48
➡️ Strong bullish momentum, but approaching exhaustion; potential pullback or consolidation soon
2. MACD (12,26,9)
MACD line > Signal line — bullish crossover confirmed
Histogram green and above 0, but flattening
➡️ Positive momentum remains, but bullish strength is fading
3. Volume
Volume increasing during upswings, declining during sideways phases
➡️ Accumulation confirmed; buyers were stepping in under $106K
4. Structure / Key Levels
🔻 Support Zones:
$106,600: Minor local support
$105,775 – $105,341: Consolidation demand zone
$105,000: Psychological & historical support
🔺 Resistance Zones:
$107,149: Current price, testing key resistance
$107,350 – $107,589: Major overhead barrier
Breakout could target: $108,000+
🎯 Trade Scenarios (Next 24 Hours)
✅ Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Above $107,350
Conditions:
RSI stays above 60
MACD remains bullish
Price closes above $107,350 with volume spike
Entry:
📈 Buy breakout above $107,350
🎯 TP1: $107,750
🎯 TP2: $108,400
🛑 SL: $106,750 (below most recent higher low)
❌ Scenario 2: Rejection and Pullback from Resistance
Conditions:
RSI breaks below 60
MACD begins to turn down (bearish crossover)
Price fails to hold $107,149 and closes below $106,600
Entry:
📉 Sell on rejection from $107,350 + bearish divergence
🎯 TP1: $106,200
🎯 TP2: $105,800
🛑 SL: $107,550
📊 Probability Forecast (Next 24 Hours)
Scenario Probability Rationale
✅ Bullish Breakout 70% - Clean higher low structure
MACD + RSI strong
Testing resistance repeatedly = buildup for breakout |
| ❌ Pullback / Rejection | 30% | - RSI nearing overbought
Resistance near $107.6–107.8K is heavy
Possible fakeout if no volume follows |
🧠 Strategic Insight:
Momentum favors bulls, but resistance is thick between $107.3K and $107.6K.
Favor breakout entries on confirmation — not pre-break bets.
Watch RSI/MACD divergences closely.
SHOT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD Has given us a nice double top at a major resistance level.
Since then it has broken the neckline of that double bottom, creating a new low, engineering liquidity, sweeping it and now getting ready to tap into supply before it should fall.
The Dxy is also getting ready to rise from a demand level so this should also aid in pushing EU down.
Looking to catch over 200 pips.
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations.
10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY
1. 10-Year Bond Yield
Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY.
Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year.
2. Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline.
3. Interest Rates
Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar.
Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains.
Current 10-Year Treasury Yield
As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%.
Key Drivers of DXY in 2025
Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside.
Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY
technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
Market Overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Strong sales resumed last week after a short period of growth. This was provoked by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
After testing and fixing the $105,800-$104,500 zone (accumulated volumes), strong volume deviations appeared, which should be perceived as protection on the part of the buyer.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, an attempt is being made to position the volumes accumulated in the range of $105,600-$104,700 in the direction of growth. Strong support has already been formed in the area of $104,000-$102,900 (abnormal volumes).
When the four-hour candle closes above the $106,400 mark, it’ll be possible to additionally consider the zone of accumulated volumes for buys (if there is a reaction from it).
The main scenario is a long position with targets up to the nearest resistance. In case of easing of geopolitical tensions, there remains the possibility of updating the ATH.
Alternative scenario: correction to the support zone of $101,600-$100,000 (volume anomalies). With this development, a prolonged rebound is possible.
Sell Zones:
$109,000–$110,000 (accumulated volume)
Buy Zones:
$105,600–$104,700 (accumulated volume)
$104,000–$102,900 (volume anomalies)
$101,600–$100,000 (significant volume anomalies)
$98,000–$97,200 (local support)
Level at $93,000
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)
IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic developments this week:
• Tuesday, June 17, 03:00 (UTC) — publication of the Japanese interest rate decision;
• Tuesday, June 17, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the core retail sales index for May in the United States, the volume of retail sales for May in the United States;
• Wednesday, June 18, 06:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK consumer price index compared to May last year;
• Wednesday, June 18, 9:00 (UTC) — publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone compared to May last year;
• Wednesday, June 18, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Wednesday, June 18, 18:00 (UTC) — publication of FOMC economic forecasts, FOMC statement, US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
• Wednesday, June 18, 18:30 (UTC) — US FOMC Press Conference;
• Thursday, June 19, 7:30 (UTC) — publication of the Q2 interest rate decision in Switzerland;
• Thursday, June 19, 8:00 (UTC) — press conference of the National Bank of Switzerland;
• Thursday, June 19, 11:00 (UTC) — publication of the June interest rate decision in the UK;
• Thursday, June 19, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;
• Friday, June 20, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing activity for June in the United States.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
Toward $3,500? Gold Faces Key Policy DecisionsGold is currently trading around $3,438 and continues to show positive momentum. After a week focused on inflation data, the gold market is now shifting its attention to interest rate decisions and policy guidance from major central banks.
The week begins with the Empire State Manufacturing Index, a key indicator of economic activity in the New York region. Following that, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision, and investors are closely watching to see whether the BoJ will continue normalizing its interest rates.
Next comes U.S. retail sales data for May — a crucial gauge of consumer spending, which remains the backbone of the U.S. economy. Any signs of weakness in consumer activity could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, the main focus remains the upcoming Fed meeting. While markets widely expect rates to be held steady, investors are awaiting clear signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the path and timing of potential rate cuts ahead.
According to Kitco’s weekly gold survey, professional analysts remain optimistic about gold’s outlook, while retail investors are showing more caution.
With central bank decisions approaching and geopolitical tensions lingering, investors need to stay alert. Risks such as rising social unrest in the U.S., escalating conflicts in the Middle East, and ongoing de-dollarization trends are all fueling demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Given expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady, gold maintains its defensive appeal. In my view, the precious metal may soon retest its highs near $3,500, as its role as a global safe haven becomes even more pronounced amid mounting uncertainty.
#AAPL - Pivot Point: $197.81#AAPL Trading Update — May 29, 2025
Current Price: $201.36
Pivot Point: $197.81
Upside Targets:
1️⃣ $209.99 — First resistance level to watch for profit booking
2️⃣ $216.49 — Confirmation of bullish momentum if price breaks above
3️⃣ $223.50 — Stronger resistance, potential for trend continuation
4️⃣ $230.50 — Longer-term target signaling significant upside potential
Downside Targets:
1️⃣ $185.65 — Immediate support, key level for bulls to defend
2️⃣ $179.13 — A more significant retracement level, watch for bounce or breakdown
3️⃣ $172.13 — Possible floor if selling pressure intensifies
4️⃣ $165.12 — Strong support zone, critical for trend reversal risk
Support Level: $192.17 — Acts as the first buffer zone; a break below could trigger further downside
Resistance Level: $203.49 — Short-term resistance; a clear breakout above this level would open the door to upside targets
EUR/JPY Approaching Key Sell Zone – Rising Wedge at Resistance
EUR/JPY is trading within a rising wedge formation and is now approaching a key resistance zone near 167.583. The current area is marked as a potential sell zone, especially as price nears the upper boundary of the wedge and key horizontal resistance.
A rejection from this area could lead to a corrective move toward the 165.363 or 164.419 support levels. However, a clean breakout above 167.583 would invalidate the short-term bearish scenario.
🔻 Sell Zone: 167.40 – 167.58
🔹 Target 1: 165.36
🔹 Target 2: 164.41
🔹 Pattern: Rising wedge
🔹 Timeframe: 4H
🔹 Bias: Bearish unless breakout confirmed
USD/JPY...1h chart pattern..Here's a quick summary of MY USD/JPY trade setup:
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Trade Idea: SELL USD/JPY @ 144.000
Entry Point: 144.000
Target 1 (TP1): 143.400 → +60 pips
Target 2 (TP2): 142.400 → +160 pips
Suggestions:
Stop Loss (SL): Consider setting a stop loss above recent resistance (e.g., 144.500 or 144.800) to manage risk.
Risk/Reward Ratio:
For TP1: 1:1 with SL @ 144.600
For TP2: ~2.6:1 with SL @ 144.600
Key Technical Zones:
Watch for support near 143.400 (TP1); possible bounce or consolidation.
142.400 is a deeper move — stronger confirmation needed (e.g., a break below 143.400 with volume).
Let me know if you’d like a chart analysis or updates on news that could impact this trade.