The Long Journey for Bitcoin Has Begun, get ready folks! BULLRUNBitcoin is just a series of parabolic moves after parabolic moves, quite simple really. Expect big price action going forward! Buy the dip and etc. Easy money folks! Don't miss out.
I expect to dip down and form a large cup and handle pattern before major lift off of the bottom parabolic rising channel.
The dip could range anywhere from 3500 to 6000. My bet is on 4200 at the lowest and 5750 at the highest.
After the dip just hodl and make your first sell off at 20k. (Just incase we don't past it).
After 20k, hodl till 50k, then 100k (Not likely as it's outside the channel, but you can always hope).
Goodluck!
Parabolic
$BTC sickly manipulatedYou might be a Bitcoin believer or not but you can't deny the fact that these days $BTC bull run was mostly (if not completely) manipulated.
Let's face it. Interest on bitcoin (especially within the media) was gone. New fuel (new "investors" joining) were less and less. Overall prices were going down slowly with huge amounts of long "bets" posted at irrational price levels (19k$ for example).
The only possibility for those people that invested by the mantra of "buying the dip" at every single drop of price since Dec 2017 was to have a sort of bull run kicked off in order to be able to liquidate some if not all of their irrational positions acquired during the bear market of cryptocurrencies.
The last few days we have seen a parabolic advance curve forming on the common BTC/USD cross. Volumes picked up and the price jumped from 5k to 7k and more.
Now what? well, this market NEEDS a pullback. RSI shows overbought signs in almost all time spans. Be careful....a drop is coming and it's going to be a huge one in my opinion.
***AS usual, not an investment advice, merely my opinion for informational and educational purposes only***
BTCUSD - Sheer Parabolic Madness. End Near?Personally, I've never participated in a parabolic move like this. As a student of Volatility Theory, my desire here is to analyze this move in shotgun marriage style with what limited information obtained about parabolic curves.
Admittedly, a few previous posts were not taken seriously by myself. In an effort to ameliorate and elaborate the analysis, I'd like to bring in a few notable points from Volatility Theory that leans on the usage Bollinger Bands and Distribution sets for a more tempered assessment of this absurd experience and moment in time.
Just the points though. If you'd like to learn about Volatility Theory, I'll post a link below. Great group of folks there and on SharkCharts.live. Special thanks for all the ideas floating around from the insightful minds there - especially DadShark, ACATwithcharts, and the many members.
Quick Legend :
BB = Bollinger Bands
StdDev = Standard Deviation
LOXP = Longest OverExpanded Period
Notable Points :
The origins of this parabolic move can be traced back to December (though it was unrevealed at that point for obvious reasons)
Price Action moved inside the 50 Weekly Distribution Set (350 BB on the Daily)
The present LOXP on the Daily is 70 and it's clearly trending above that after this 4th base
Moves like these seem to have 4 bases of contact on the arc/curve which appear satisfied in this analysis
What information I have found through simple search suggests that this post 4th move could be the last neck of this leg.
The top of this move is not yet known, so the parallel channel here is a projection
The top of the parallel channel has been generously assigned to the 1.25 StdDev Upper Band of the 50 Weekly Moving Average
The angle of the curve seems to direct itself quite nicely to the Upper Band of the 50 Weekly Bands @ 1.25 StdDev
There is a heavy order block in the same area that would constitute a top, though likely only mildly important with this euphoric move
A break of the channel 'mean' could be a good indication that this move is coming to an end
Projected and evidence based retrace from moves like these are anywhere from 62% - 79%, and have heard 50% retrace is a bit lower of a probability yet not out of the question.
The Daily LOXP Mean (70 @ 1.25 StdDev) is going to be traveling up to meet price, which may place it in the 50 - 62% area before all is said and done.
The 50 Weekly Moving Average is also starting to settle right around that 50% retrace value
Price generally trades to the mean (which it has already done) and laterally as defined by the same distribution set once it breaks inside, as it has here - (a break inside is a crossing of the 1.25 StdDev of the 50 Weekly BB or any distribution set for that matter).
Is it unlikely that we break the 50 Weekly 1.25 Upper Band? I think, no. It's entirely possible. I think for this trend to continue on a healthy path, a correction inside this 50 Weekly Band is probable and necessary.
This smaller distribution set has turned into a much larger distribution set, which is equivalent to turning off the road. The road does not go this way, as the upper slope of probability is downwards, not upwards (Mark Whistlers analogy, "Why do retail traders attempt to turn off the road with trading") - meaning, we're slightly against the grain here.
Again, I'm merely a student of the charts. If you know something about parabolic moves, please share. This idea is as wild as this price action but it has been quite an experience.
Good luck traders, may you find yourself on the profitable side of it!
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Reading: Mark Whistler - Volatility Illuminated
Retrace to 5500-5300 on BTCWe have been in overbought territory on the daily for quite some time, now we are overbought on weekly and the move became so parabolic I don't see it being sustained for much longer. Bitfinex is trading at a discount, bitmex funding returned to 0.01%, so this may be the end of current rally. Be advised though, shorting parabolic moves is very dangerous and volatility is high, so if you are not experienced, don't. Better buy the dip when we correct.
In red you can see the 50 weekly moving average, I extrapolated it's path so we can guess where a retest can happen if it is to come. It coincides with a 0.5 fibonacci retracement of the whole move from lows.
Correction aside this was a very bullish move, which tells us that the bearmarket is definitely over, so plan accordingly. We may not see the levels we wanted a retrace to.
PS: If you short here, I'd take 10-20% off at 6400, another 50% at 5800 and the rest at 5300 if it comes.
BTCUSD 1D chart (5/9/2019)Good morning traders. Price continues to move as expected, notching a new 2019 high at $6099 on Bitstamp last night. I am zooming out to the 1D chart today to give my thoughts. I don't really have much to add to what I've been saying for the past 4 months, but I would like to reiterate what I'm thinking.
Not too long ago I discussed this parabolic "pop" as a growing possibility (dotted purple curve). I have added in wave counts to let you know what I'm looking at from this larger TF. As you can see, I do believe we are in the fifth subwave of wave 3. However, where it ends remains a question. My belief, at this time, is that we will see it end between $6800 and the daily R3 pivot at $7475. Which level depends on how hard this next push is (should be subwave 3 of subwave 5 of wave 3). As always, I'll outline my thoughts with fibs, etc. during this morning's video update.
Everybody else thought that price would get rejected hard at $6000 yet we see price consolidating on top of it, much like what we saw at $5600. This suggests another good push up which aligns with my thoughts. A parabolic move like we are seeing should result in a blow-off top at the end of wave 5. My current wave 5 target (blue line) is based on the wave 3 target shown and happens to be the weekly pivot. However, if wave 3 targets the R3 pivot instead, then the wave 5 target becomes the red line around $10,000. Retail traders continue to remain in disbelief at this year's rally and are ignoring the accumulation that occurred as well as the FOMO that will continue to flood in as price rises above $6000, making these targets more and more likely. However, this does not guarantee that we will reach them. At this point, there are many variables which makes it hard to pinpoint a really likely scenario. So, risk management remains the name of the game, folks.
A breakdown from the recent high would likely see price retracing toward the $4350-$5000 level. That is the 61.8%-78.6% extension area. We would have to see how price moves at the beginning of that breakdown to figure out which is the most likely retracement target. My initial soft target for wave 3 remains the $6300-$6500 level, with an increasing likelihood that we will see it tap that $6800 level. But I will be watching price action and volume because the more this plays out as it has been, the more likely those higher targets of ~$6800 and ~$7400 are becoming. Looking at the pivots and price action, we would normally expect price to blow off around the R5 pivot as it is, which only gives more credence toward those higher wave 5 targets. If wave 5 targets $8000, then we would expect a retracement toward $4900-$5600 which is the sideways movement during April. If wave 5 targets $10,000 then we would expect a retracement toward $5800-$6600. In either case, the expected larger wave 2 retracement would find support at key levels before beginning the larger wave 3.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
NANO IS ON BULL RUN - STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR 15% +NANO is following our parabolic curve - overall looks very good
Is $NANO The Next $BNB / $BAT / $RVN?$NANO/BTC looks like it has been forming the perfect base for an imminent parabolic surge . Notice how pressure has been building while nearing the 0.5 Fib during the last 3 weeks. Both price strength and volume seem to confirm. What's more, when pressure started to build at the beginning of this month, OBV broke the zero line into positive area and is now already at the same level as the August 2018 high, while price has yet to follow.
First target is the 100% Fib level at the August 2018 top. The blue curve line reaches that level by the end of June 2019. At that point a correction might occur, forming a handle for the cup. That said, I expect price to stay above the blue curve line and even deviate away from it once this cork pops. In that case we'll probably break the August 2018 top and hit the 1.272 or even 1.618 Fib level before a major correction occurs.
If NANO can confirm its strength and trend during the next couple of weeks, its future surely looks bright towards this year's Q4!
This information is not trading advice, but for educational purposes only.
BTC current resistance and future parabolic runAs you can see in this chart, BTC has some confluences in resistance with the green parabolic curve and the red down trend line. I'm convinced that if we do fall from here, and IF we have already bottom, the next drop will be the best buying opportunity before the next run up. However, I am currently sitting in a BIG SHORT from 5240 and will ladder more if price has one more small push up because the next fall will be a corrective wave and not another wave for lower low. I don't think BTC will hit the 6000 range though from this continuation without a correction. Moreover, we can see that the purple line is still effective since the 2015 bear market and it is currently preventing BTC from going higher at this price.
Just my thought process.
EURO/USD update 2 for this weekHello all ^^
we touched the first liquidity zone and a cool pullback into a very nice lvl for buy euro with tight stoploss!
if we dont break that structure dealing range we can hit the next target around 1.138 :)
in case we break that structure " Closing below and agressive price action to the downside " we cut the long and start selling stops where my zones are at targeting blue line first objective.
i remain short term bullish after hit my first tp zone , but we must wait for what the market wanna do next and swimg the wave
On Track for $BTC to $260k *The GREAT Accumulation has Begun*Here we see $BTC in its previous run-up gliding along the PURPLE trend line once it has hit its floor.
$BTC has hit its FLOOR, in other words $BTC has BOTTOMED, in other words, $BTC isn't going lower than $3178 ever again
Back to the analysis, it touches the PINK parabolic trend line breaching it for a moment and then going back to accumulation mode once again.
We see this occur 3 times over the course of a year, and on the 3rd time BOOM goes that dynamite!
Now here we are, in 2019, fiat on ramps have improved, market sentiment is vastly different than the MT. GOX era and institutional is primed and ready.
We have completed the first accumulation push of the year, we will have two more if market psychology remains the same(which i believe it will). The market cycles also seem to be following the same patterns but in a much more drawn out fashion.
In conclusion, the end of this year is going to be euphoric, especially if you have been accumulating through out the entirety of it.
Think, Plan, and Enjoy the future!
Cheers!
$SPY - Daily Chart Extreme Overbought & Parabolic Snapback Setup$SPY - our $283 level of resistance finally broke over with the market busting over and gapping up this week. Spy currently sitting at $288.26 at time of post. Highs of market are at $293.85. 7th green day in a row, constant gap ups making it hard to get day trades with market breadth sucked out before market opens. In individual names, I have been take about 30% less trades than normal. Longs my hold time is about 1/2 of what it was a few months ago. Always have to adapt and find the trend with market conditions.
$SPY - expecting a pullback sooner than later with stochastics now at 90.17. Market is due for a breather and pullback to at least 9ema, otherwise other notable level is $283 area again (for tap off support).
Have a great weekend coming up!
CRON Bubble Popped: Fibonacci Retracement InitiatedThis sure looks familiar, doesn't it? CRON has a lot more going for it than TLRY, but we still lack justification for this recent rush up. Too high maaaan, it got too highhhh.
Notice the uptick in buying and selling volume here recently - this is typical in the end of a bubble cycle. Also notice the downward cypher pattern we are setup to form.
Bought a 50 delta, March 1st put on it - expecting to hold till around the $16 level. If you hop on the short train, be ready and be careful; this is about to be a wild ride.