Get started

Peso

USD/INR pullback possible, USD/MXN eyes 18.95 USD/INR surged from 86.30 to nearly 87.85 in just over a week, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing plans to impose a 25% tariff on select Indian exports. The latest 4H candles show signs of exhaustion, with price stalling near the highs and forming small-bodied candles with upper wicks—suggesting weakening bullish momentum. A break below 87.45 could trigger a deeper pullback toward 87.20. However, if price reclaims 87.65, bulls may attempt another push toward 87.85 or new highs. USD/MXN reversed from its late July low near 18.48 and has been climbing steadily, reaching 18.85 after the U.S. agreed to extend its current trade deal with Mexico by 90 days. The trend potentially remains bullish on the 4H timeframe, with higher lows and clean upward structure. Price recently broke above short-term resistance near 18.80 and is now retesting the zone. A successful hold above this area could open room for a move toward 18.95. Failure to hold 18.75 could lead to a corrective drop back toward 18.70.
by BlackBull_Markets
Is Mexico's Peso at the Crossroads?The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on three Mexican financial institutions - CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa - has ignited a crucial debate over the Mexican peso's stability and the intricate dynamics of U.S.-Mexico relations. Washington accuses these entities of laundering millions for drug cartels and facilitating fentanyl precursor payments, marking the first actions under new anti-fentanyl legislation. While these institutions collectively hold a relatively small portion of Mexico's total banking assets (less than 3%), the move carries significant symbolic weight and prompts a re-evaluation of the peso's outlook. The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, swiftly rejected the allegations, demanding concrete evidence and initiating its investigations, including the temporary regulatory intervention of CIBanco and Intercam to safeguard depositors. Economically, the peso faces a nuanced landscape. Before the sanctions, the Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated remarkable resilience, appreciating significantly against the dollar, bolstered by Mexico's comparatively higher interest rates and robust trade flows with the U.S. However, the recent divergence in monetary policy, with **Banxico** easing rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, now presents a potential headwind for the peso. While analysts generally suggest limited systemic risk to Mexico's broader financial system from these targeted sanctions, the action introduces an element of uncertainty. It raises concerns about potential capital flight, increased compliance costs for other Mexican financial institutions, and a possible erosion of investor confidence, factors that could exert downward pressure on the peso. Geopolitically, these sanctions underscore the escalating U.S. campaign against fentanyl trafficking, now intricately linked with broader trade and security tensions. President Donald Trump's past threats of punitive tariffs on Mexican imports - aimed at curbing drug flows - highlight the volatile nature of this bilateral relationship. The sanctions serve as a potent political message from Washington, signaling its resolve to combat the fentanyl crisis on all fronts, including financial pipelines. This diplomatic friction, coupled with the ongoing complexities of migration and security cooperation, creates a challenging backdrop for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While the U.S. and Mexico maintain a strong intergovernmental relationship, these pressures test the limits of their collaboration and could influence the peso's trajectory in the medium term.
Long
by UDIS_View
USD/MXN Mirrors 2017 Reversal; Elliott Wave Pointing Lower Back in 2016–2017, we first saw a very sharp recovery on USD/MXN, but when Trump took office in January 2017, the market reversed strongly lower, falling all the way from 22 to 17.60, lost nearly 20% . That very similar pattern is now becoming visible again with 2024–2025 price action. Last year, after Trump won the US election, we saw significant depreciation of the Mexican peso, but since he has officially taken office in January, we’re seeing a complete reversal—just like in 2017. In fact, the Mexican peso has been gaining nicely over the past few months, likely based on speculation that Trump will find the agreement and trade deals with other countries, particularly related to tariffs. Since no one really benefits from trade wars, it’s not surprising that even Trump’s recent remarks reflect an acknowledgment of the global situation being unsustainable, especially when it comes to CHINA-US trade. With that in mind, markets in general are likely to recover, and we’re already seeing some nice rebounds. And when stocks are in recovery mode, commodity currencies—including the peso—tend to perform well. Looking at USD/MXN specifically, we’re seeing a strong reversal down from February highs, just like in 2017. The current drop hasn't even retraced 38.2% of the 2024 rally yet, which suggests more downside is likely—ideally toward the 19.00 area, maybe even 18.00 by year-end. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it's useful to zoom in on smaller time frames. The structure doesn’t look like completed impulse yet, so technically there can be more weakness coming. Resistance for wave four rally sits around the 19.77–19.84 zone, which aligns with Fibonacci projections for wave four, as well as swing lows from March and April. This area could serve as a nice resistance of the current bounce, especially if the Fed delivers any dovish remarks this week. No rate cuts are expected, but even a hint at future cuts could send the US yields lower, which would weigh on the dollar and support risk assets—meaning commodity currencies could outperform. In that case, USD/MXN could ideally fall back below 19.50. Elliott Wave analysis also helps define clear invalidation levels, very important when it comes to potential trade setups. In this scenario, 20.16 is a key level to watch. A break above it would overlap with the start of the current move and signal that the bears are finished for now, thus I would need to adjust the view accordingly. Grega
Short
by ew-forecast
3
2 reasons the peso rally may not be over The USD/MXN has fallen over 2.5% in the past five trading sessions, dropping below 19.9 per USD for the first time since November 2024. Two key factors could be driving this move: 1. Investor distrust in the U.S. dollar – Market confidence is weakening due to Trump’s inconsistent tariff threats and other unpopular policies. In contrast, the Sheinbaum government’s kid-glove handling of Trump is securing favourable trade concessions. 2. Attractive interest rate differential – With Banxico’s benchmark rate at 9.5%, the peso remains appealing for carry trades. The Federal Reserve’s decision this week could widen this gap further. Last week’s subdued U.S. inflation data is helping to fuel speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts, which may continue to support the peso despite trade uncertainties.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
USD/MXN: Trump fears meet Banxico decision The USD/MXN should be an interesting pair to watch in the coming days. October’s headline inflation in Mexico ticked up after two months of declines, yet analysts expect Banxico to proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut this week regardless. Last week’s volatile trading saw USD/MXN reach 20.80, as markets reacted to concerns over a second Trump presidency. His protectionist and immigration policies would place pressure on the peso. However, for now, the pair’s uptrend may face hurdles. USD/MXN climbed to an intraday high of 20.57, but bullish momentum failed to break the year-to-date peak of 20.80, signaling possible resistance ahead.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/MXN: Sheinbaum Era Begins Mexico makes history today as Claudia Sheinbaum becomes the country’s first female president. With nearly 35.5 million votes—representing close to 60% of the electorate—Sheinbaum secured more votes than any president in Mexican history. Since the election, the Mexican peso has declined by around 13%. Recent price action has moved sideways as markets assess Sheinbaum's economic policies. However, traders anticipating a sharper selloff in USD/MXN may need to wait, as the pair potentially remains upwardly biased with the 20 Day and 50 Day EMA outlining possibly areas of support.
by BlackBull_Markets
Peso Pressure Ahead of Major MXN Events Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon. July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation. Rising prices in July could complicate any plans for the central bank to lower its key interest rate this week. In late June, the central bank opted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged after a rate cut in March, the first since mid-2021 when it began its tightening cycle. The Mexican Peso has extended its losing streak to four consecutive days against the US Dollar, marking ten losses in the last eleven sessions. The currency closed above the psychological 19.00 level for two days, having surpassed the previous year-to-date high of 18.99. Market momentum could favor sellers, with the Relative Strength Index indicating overbought conditions. The immediate resistance might stand at the current year-to-date high of 20.22. On the downside, a breach of the 19.00 support level could open the path to the August stumble close to 18.50, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 18.20.
by BlackBull_Markets
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 44 - USDMXN - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing USDMXN, starting from the 3-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
by Road_2_Funded
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 42 - USDCOP - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing USDCOP, starting from the 3-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
by Road_2_Funded
I see a bump for the Mexican Peso and then a dive after summerI anticipate the antiglobalism movement will enrich Mexico for cheap labor (unless Trump gets elected then the Peso will melt down due to the tariffs) where China is already passing our own tariffs by exporting to Mexico where it gets a new shiny label and tariffs don't apply. I believe a billionaire has made moves to gather up the trucking and logistic companies in Mexico because of the growth. Afterwards, no matter what, the dollar TVC:DXY will soar to 140-160+ until itself too implodes leading to hyperinflation in the USA which will catalyze an opportunity to move to CBDC's based on social credit scores (negative interest rates). I also see the TTM squeeze executing on all major TF's so a major move is coming!! Usually we see a bounce of the opposite side as a fake breakout, then a squeeze in the opposite direction lasting for 8 TF bars. Multiple consecutive TF's hint at a massive move and alignment
by EmptyEternity
2
Trials and Elections: 3 Market-adjacent events to watch Trump and Hunter Biden Trials Former U.S. President Donald Trump was convicted last week on all counts of falsifying business records. Trump faces sentencing in one month’s time on July 11. Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison, although first-time offenders (or ex-presidents) like Trump are rarely incarcerated. Meanwhile, a jury was sworn in on Monday for a (show?) trial of Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, on gun charges. Mexican Election The Mexican peso continues to fall sharply towards 18.0 per USD, its lowest since October 2023, following results indicating a supermajority win for the Moderna party and its allies in Congress. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Moderna party candidate, won the presidential election by a significant margin. As noted in Reuters, "The peso is underperforming amid growing concerns that the governing coalition's supermajority in the lower house might lead to the implementation of non-market-friendly policies,". Indian Election The Indian rupee plunged past 83.5 per USD, nearing its record-low of 83.7 from April. This movement erased the sharp rally triggered by early vote tallies, as updated counts indicated that incumbent PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to secure a much narrower victory than anticipated. Amidst the election turmoil in the world's largest democracy, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision is also expected this week. In April 2024, the RBI maintained its benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Mexican Peso Navigates Uncertain Monetary Policy LandscapeThe Mexican Peso (MXN) faces a challenging economic landscape characterized by conflicting signals of growth optimism and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming decisions of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will heavily influence the Peso's trajectory against the US Dollar (USD). In Mexico, strong economic performance has stirred speculation about a potential interest rate cut by Banxico, contrasting with worries over inflation exceeding targets. This divergence in opinions among analysts could drive short-term fluctuations in the MXN/USD exchange rate. The Fed's recent indications of a possible rate reduction later in 2024, coupled with Mexico's April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release and Banxico's policy decision, are pivotal events that will shape the Peso's direction in the coming weeks. Traders are advised to consider a long (buy) position on USD/MXN, entering at 16.98873 with various target prices (T.P.) and a stop loss (S.L.) level at 15.61102.
Long
by MorMedia
Sell your pesos, buy dollarsI was down in Mexico over the past week and most people were commenting about how weak the dollar was against the Peso. While I was there, the dollar made a move from the low SWB:16S to $18. Most people kept saying that if it gets to $18-$20, you should sell your dollars to buy more pesos, because the dollar will decline against the peso over the long term. List fundamental reasons here= Mexico economy is getting stronger, US is in massive debt, blah blah blah... Reality is, the chart tells the truth and to me, it looks like the dollar is forming a bottom for a long-term move higher against the peso. As long as price stays above the blue trendline, price is heading higher. How high? Maybe 2x? Let's see.
Long
by benjihyam