THE WEEK AHEAD: GLD, GDXJ, GDX, SLV, USOEARNINGS
No options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week.
BROAD MARKET
EEM (15/18)
QQQ (19/19)
IWM (19/18)
SPY (19/15)
EFA (10/12)
One word ... . Well, maybe two: "Weak sauce," with ranks in the low quarter of their 52-week ranges and background implied at sub-20 across the board.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS
Top 5 By Rank: GLD (92/16), GDXJ (71/33), SLV (64/21), GDX (48/28), USO (47/43) TBT (52/24).
Pictured here is a GLD Synthetic Reverse Jade Lizard, explained in the post, below. For those of a more nondirectional bent, the Aug 16th 127/140 short strangle is paying 1.72 with a 70% probability of profit, although I'd recheck that setup at New York open for delta balance ... .
GDXJ: August 16th 34 short straddle, 3.45 credit with >expected move break evens, delta/theta -11.03/3.02.
GDX: August 16th 25 short straddle, 2.12 credit with >expected move break evens, but a little on the weak side in terms of credit collection. Delta/theta: -10.52/1.84.
SLV/USO: August has yet to populate ... .
In petro, my go-to is generally XOP (34/35), but the August expiry has yet to populate. Given the size of the underlying, I would probably continue to short straddle it here, assuming that it's still paying greater than 10% of the price of the underlying (i.e., >2.70 or so in credit for the short straddle nearest at-the-money).
Premiumselliing
BIDU EARNINGS PLAYSBIDU announces earnings "some time tomorrow", so it could be either before or after market; if you want to play it, look to put on a setup before today's market close. One thing I would note is that the bid/ask spreads aren't that great, implying that the options' liquidity isn't the best in the world, so I would look to put on a play at the mid price, but not to chase price ... . In any event, here are the setups:
For the folks who like to "go naked":
Feb 19th 124/157.5 short strangle
Probability of Profit %: 72%
Max Profit: $225/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
For those who are "more shy" or of a defined risk bent (I've gone out a little farther in time because I can't get the long option strikes I want for a symmetrical setup in the Feb 19th expiry):
Feb 26th 115/120/165/170 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 70%
Max Profit: $117/contract
Buying Power Effect: $382
Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max profit or a single side nearing worthless. In the event a side is tested, look to roll that side out to a later expiry and sell and oppositional side against the rolled out option(s) for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll of the tested side.