Bitcoin Key 116800 Support Tested, US CPI as Decisive Catalyst__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
➤ Bullish momentum maintained across all major timeframes (1D to 1H). Key supports held at 116800-117200. Very high volume on low timeframes, indicating distribution/recharging. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shows Buy across major TFs, micro-buy opportunity signaled on 15min. No extreme behavioral signals, except short-term positive micro-signal.
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Strategic Summary
➤ Cautious bullish swing bias as long as 116800-117200 holds. Monitor strong tech sector momentum (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator). Heightened risk zone if support breaks (downward targets: 111000/110500/107200). Main catalyst: US CPI release—active trading management advised before/after. Tactical approach necessary: stop below 116200, TP 119000/120000. Closely watch low timeframe volumes and ISP signals.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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1D: Bullish, multiple supports at 10510/107200/11050-11190, resistance at 123000/119000-120000. Strong Risk On / Risk Off Indicator acquisition, normal volumes, no behavioral overheating.
12H: Momentum intact, 116800-117200 key area. Volume normal, stable mature market, no emotional excess.
6H: Bullish retest validated on 116800, rising volume but no dramatic spikes, key moment for trend.
4H: Dynamic support at 116800, resistance 119000-120000. Uptrend, healthy as long as support holds.
2H: Very high volume amid consolidation/reloading, increased volatility around 116800.
1H: Still Up, but extreme volume, increased caution. Possible stop hunting.
30min: Slowdown, volume still very high, micro-correction or local exhaustion.
15min: Micro-correction but ISP buy triggered; potential short-term bounce.
Key alignments: All TFs 1D–1H Up, supports held. 30min/15min correction on volume excess.
Major confluence: 116800-117200 = absolute pivot: break = correction, bounce = further up.
Divergences: Extreme volume not confirmed by ISP, except 15min.
Technical zone of action: Bullish scenario confirmed if bounce on 116800; invalidation on breakdown.
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Macro & Fundamental Analysis
➤ No major macro event in the very near term
➤ Sole catalyst ahead: US CPI release, watch for possible whipsaws
➤ Institutional flows (ETF AUM record highs); on-chain stability, visible accumulation
➤ Volatility tightly compressed, coiling for next breakout on impulsive move
➤ Geopolitical noise present but limited direct impact in short term
To watch: post-CPI reactions, low timeframe volumes, defense/break of 116800-117200 cluster, micro ISP 15min signal, volatility & ETF institutional flows.
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Summary & Action Plan
➤ Preferred scenario: Cautious swing long if 116800-117200 support cluster holds, stop <116200, TP 119000-120000+
➤ Invalidation: Prolonged breakdown of 116800: exit, wait for signal resynchronization.
➤ Catalysts: US CPI, watch for whipsaws (<1h pre/post-release).
➤ Risk management: Avoid adding if extreme volumes persist without ISP buy on short TFs (30m/1H), close monitoring ahead of data.
➤ On-chain context: Record volatility compression—major move likely soon; spot supply clustered—expect amplified reactions.
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