RUNE - Dont let it RUNe off without youCharted on 21st April
RUNE aims to be a decentralised cross-chain dex which offers trading of native assets on-chain rather than wrapped tokens or represented tokens controlled and stored in a cex. Rune is needed to bootstrap liquidity in LPs (in an overcollateralized manner), synergistic with Terra due to decentralised nature and UST adoption, and finally burnt to mint THOR.USD (new!). As posted in my own substack, expecting ecosystems with native stablecoins and defi to pick up steam as the current narrative.
Very bullish - 30%
Rune trading volume up for decentralised preferences, supply shock from the collateralization (LP), synergistic effect of DEX benefitting from increased trading volumes due to THOR.USD and supply drain due to burn-to-mint function would be the main catalyst to send Thorchain up. Am expecting a retest of $12.18 and $12.88 which would be the 0.5 fib and the descending trendline which acts as resistance. We would want to see a break of the descending trendline which would mark the end of a year-long range and expect more upside. A retest of demand after breaking out from the resistance would let us target the previous upside fibs at $14.3, $17.3 and ATH ~$22
Strategy would be to add on 0.382 fibs ($10), on 0.5 fibs ($12.8 retest) post resistance breakout and consolidations above the 0.786 fibs at $17.3
Conservative Bullish - 40%
Cautious traders who buy RUN E would aim for better risk:reward especially since it has been hacked before, as well as lack of volume from people who want to derisk from LUNA/ Do Kwon.
This scenario would see RUNE ranging in the 0.236 to 0.382 fibs, between 7.3 and 10. I would then expect this to test the descending trendline and be rejected, with $10 as a good re-add zone due to 1) psychological round whole number and 2) 0.382 fib retest. Strategy would be to rinse buying RUNE near $7 and selling at $10, re-adding at $10 upon rejection or breakout of the trendline, with a target of 14.3 and 17.3 as conservative bullish targets.
Bearish - 30%
Looking at UST or algorithm/ecosystem stablecoins created via collateralization to be fudded, causing the meta to shift away from this narrative, as well as seasonal weakness in May which could also cause massive shorting to hedge. It would still be a great protocol to add and DCA on dips. Would be possibly looking at RUNE retracing from here downwards to old support $6.73 and ranging back towards the 0.382 fib ($10). Any closure below the old support would let us see a sweep of lows and thus the possibility of a $3-4 RUNE. You may choose to DCA at old support 6.73 and prepare to add heavily if $3-4 RUNE DCA opportunity comes, or short at the descending resistance trendline or the 0.382 fib on a range retrace with a target of $3.5
RUNE has been a key component of defi and crypto ethos and it has a resilient community waiting on the success of such a protocol. LPs exist on Thoryield and you may choose to earn by being validators through running THOR nodes too. As it is a volatile coin, I would recommend spot trading for RUNE on exchanges like Bybit rather than touching perps if you are not an experienced trader.
