Get started

Russia

Sberbank to break, but only with good earnings reportHi there, I've been following Sberbank and here are my thoughts: there is a strong resistance level at 290-296, which is facing an uprising trend line (dotted line). In simple terms, I expect a continuation of a trend with a break out through that resistance level. Sberbank is being fundamentally strong company, hence I expect positive breakout. The only major concern is an earnings report on the 26th, hence I do not expect a break out before that. MA50 tends to be a local support level for a trend. Of course, the earnings might not match expectations and then I would expect a pull back to test new levels later, but let's see. Not an advise to invest, but feel free to share your reflection!
RUS:SBERLong
by nikhrushchev
Brent Crude - Looking Overextended Ahead of OPEC+ MeetingOil prices have enjoyed a remarkable rally over the last four months as the world has gone from entering the most severe wave of Covid-19 to rolling out vaccines and planning its final exit from the restrictions. Efforts by OPEC+ have been key to this, including the surprise one million barrel cut from Saudi Arabia earlier in the year, which confirmed the group was committed to bringing the market back into balance even as the world starts to emerge from the pandemic. But the next phase is arguably the most challenging for the group so it's so surprise that the week before the next meeting, we're seeing momentum slipping on the daily chart, even as prices are hitting new highs. That kind of divergence is a red flag rather than a reversal signal but after such a powerful run and ahead of a meeting that could be challenging, a correction wouldn't be entirely surprising. We could still see some more gains in the near-term but the closer it gets to $70, the more interesting the momentum indicators will become, given the psychological barrier and the fact it has historically been a key level of resistance. The 4-hour chart shows that price is currently quite extended, with it being quite far from the moving averages compared to where it's traded the last few months. A move back towards the 55/89 SMA band would be very interesting, with it having been a key support zone all the way up. There have been small moves below at times but broadly speaking, it has been a key reversal point. A break below this could signal a larger correction, although that may well depend on the outcome of next week's meeting and how positive investors stay in the face of rising yields.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
USDRUB could drop to RR 66-68 once below 72The RUB is getting stronger amid global weakness of USD (DXY) and rising crude oil. Below RR 72 the move to the upside could be invalidated. There is a chance that this drop could extend to the downside to build the large wave Y of WXY flat correction. We saw such a drop in wave W before. The minimum target is to hit the start point of wave X at RR 68. The equal distance with wave W could send the USDRUB even deeper to RR 66. I added the inverse UKOIL on the left scale. It shows that RUB accumulated a huge divergence as oil is rising and RUB doesn't catch up with it. Before last summer the correlation worked amazingly well. Do you agree with this view? Please share your comments below. Cheers!
Short
by aibek
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been on a fantastic run since early November and with reports emerging of a deal between OPEC+ members on production in February, they've been given another bump today, up close to 4% at the time of writing. That leaves WTI trading just shy of $50 once again, after running into resistance around here on Monday. A deal to keep output steady is undoubtedly good news for oil prices but how much is already priced in? Does crude have a breakout above $50 in it? The momentum indicators suggest this will be very challenging. They've already been posting lower highs on the daily chart since mid-December, after which price has made new highs. A lot of positive news is priced into oil prices now and this wave we're going through is looking far more severe than many anticipated due to new strains. The near-term risks may be to the downside in oil, although with OPEC+ monitoring the situation so closely and, importantly, acting when necessary with high compliance, any slip in prices may be limited to just a small correction. The outlook is much improved for oil prices, producers just need to navigate cautiously for a few more months. A break of yesterday's lows may signal the corrective move is underway, with the real test then coming around $46, where the 200 SMA meets support from mid-to-late December.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
Covid-19 Scan of North Europe and North AmericaQuick scan for Northern Europe shows that Sweden is spiking rathe parabolic. They went for herd immunity, and recently only backtracked to making mask wearing mandatory. Quite obvious what we are dealing with and there is no two ways about it. The neighbour, Finland, which has been out of the news is actually similarly spiking, albeit slightly moderated. Russia is similar with a spike that is appearing to be slowing slightly. To the south, Poland is better off with a plateau incoming. Clearly, Northern/Eastern Europe is is no better shape than Western Europe. Stay safe and healthy. Blessed Christmas to everyone there...
C
by Auguraltrader
Big Russian long is comingRussian equities look really good at the end of 2020 & 2021-2025! We take into account declining dxy and rising em currencies, sector rotation and increasing demand for commodities in china, with a favorable pace of capex L-shaped recovery in the energy sector... we also expect reduction of political risks in Russia more, than in other em... the recovery of the Russian economy after the 2008 crisis was frozen in 2014 due to the "sanctions wars"... - in the context of the end of the pandemic and the change in the socio-political paradigm.., we expect the growth of Russian economy (next 8 years) and the growth of equities (next 5 years)...
INDEX:RTSILong
by MITCapital
1
RidetheMacro| GBPRUB Russia on Track Again!A "no-deal" Brexit could be three times more costly to Britain's economy in the long term than the coronavirus outbreak, a new study published Tuesday warned.the political and economic effects of the pandemic were likely to mitigate or hide that of failing to secure a trade agreement with the EU. 📌 But in the short term, the lack of a new formal trading relationship with Brussels would be bad news for economic recovery and larger than the health crisis in the long term.The think-tank, which collaborated with the London School of Economics, said Brexit would hit growth in the coming years more than if the UK had opted to remain in the bloc. 📍 "The claim that the economic impacts of Covid-19 dwarf those of Brexit is almost certainly correct in the short term," its authors wrote. "Not even the most pessimistic scenarios suggest that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a fall in output comparable to that seen in the second quarter of 2020. 📍 "However -- assuming a reasonably strong recovery, and that government policies succeed in avoiding persistent mass unemployment -- in the long run, Brexit is likely to be more significant. 🔑 the UK’s recovery from the Covid-19 lockdown was losing momentum even before the announcement of new restrictions to control the spread of the virus, the latest snapshot of the economy has found. 📍 The closely watched monthly estimates from Cips/Markit found the level of activity at its lowest since June, the outlook for business at its weakest since May and jobs being shed at a rapid rate. The Cips/Markit report flash estimate of the service and manufacturing sectors dipped from 59.1 in August to 55.7 in September. but the survey was conducted before the introduction of fresh curbs across the UK this week. The marked dip in the PMI prompted speculation among City analysts that the UK could be heading for a tough end to 2020. 📍 The study estimated that the negative impact on gross domestic product would be 5.7 percent over the next 15 years compared with the current level, while GDP was forecast to take a 2.1-percent hit from Covid-19. The projections come despite a lack of clarity about the overall repercussions from the pandemic, and as a second wave of infections hits Europe. 📌 For RUB 🔑 The Salary growth numbers for July (this data comes with additional lag) significantly outperformed expectations, posting a 2.3% YoY jump in real terms after a 0.6% YoY increase in June. Though this data is more relevant to the larger businesses and state sector, and the situation in the SME sector could be different, other sources of income were likely supportive as well: the budget fulfillment data for 8M20 point at continued acceleration of spending on pensions and social security. 🔑 the earlier estimates for retail trade for April-July have been improved by 0.6-0.7ppt YoY, including from -2.6% YoY to -1.9% YoY in July, suggesting that the drop in smaller businesses was not as deep as expected. Until the Next Time.🙏 Ridethemacro
Short
by Ridethemacro