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Sandp500

Market outlookThe S&P500 has done exactly as I feared. Thesis: The US is transitioning. The US dollar was the reserve currency of the world. We exported dollars and it either sat in banks or was imported back as investment (Bonds and stocks). When we locked up Russia's money we made EVERY country re-evaluate their relationship with us. A significant pivot is happening on the macro scale. The US's future lies in how we make use of the US coming back home. I expect production of goods and base commodities to begin to truly take over for years to come. I do NOT expect to invest significantly in the S&P500 again until 2028-2032. Things to keep in mind: 1. Valuations are still absurd. and either significant inflation or a drop in price is needed to bring them back to levels I would purchase at. 2. Relief rally should happen soon. Remember bear market rallies rip harder and faster than rallies in a bull markets. 3. The fed is squeezing the economy trying to reduce inflation. Until they pivot, expect lower lows. 4. There is a non-zero percent chance we enter a sustained bear market until 2028 ish. The first "real" one in 40+ years. 5. Commodities are looking great. They may drop for a bit longer but if you look back 50 years and adjust for inflation we are in the initial innings. For reference silver is 21.93$ and based on my calculations of inflation, its high was above 800.00$. 6. I am forecasting gold to go to 8000 over the next 6 years even if everything goes "well" for the west just due to the USD being revalued lower. If things get truly dicey I am expecting gold to reach 25,000 an ounce. 7. Remember the insidious nature of inflation. Even if we assume official levels of inflation are accurate and expect 5% for the next 5 years, cost of living will increase by at LEAST 29%. I expect levels closer to 80-300% increase cost of living based on my macro thesis. Large unknown factors: 1. Europe is looking terrifyingly weak. If Europe begins to destabilize I expect a rush into the dollar for a time. This will have many unpredictable problems. We may see inflation cool for a time due to that but it just makes the problem bigger down the line. 2. If the US gov suddenly finds a cause that allows them to bless off on 50-200T in money printing I expect that to drastically shift what happens. It may prop up the stock market or it may be the final proof to investors they lost control and create a global bank run. 3. Contagions: in 2008 we saw one of the largest expressions of a contagion event. The entire financial world locked up. There are 100X's more dangers of similar events now than there where in 2008 because we never fixed the underlying problem and allowed it grow exponentially. 4. Food and energy are becoming huge global risk factors. Don't underestimate the global effects of wide spread starvation and loss of energy augmentation to humanity. My call is just based on the worlds Covid response. This is not even factoring in Russia and Ukraine. Western countries will be buffered from both of these trends but we will still strongly feel this through second and third order effects. Don't underestimate the power of starvation and lack of energy to produce large scale contagious risks unlike we have ever experienced in anyone's memory.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nexusfurian
S&P500: Exhausting 🥵An exhausting time lies behind S&P500! It has been moving up and down with vivid gestures and has paced itself a bit only recently. We expect the index to take a rest in the magenta zone between 3788 and 3683 points, where it should also finish wave iv in magenta. Afterwards, it should be revived enough to rise towards the mark at 4101 points. However, there is a 33% chance that S&P500 could be too nervous to relax and thus could climb above 4101 points immediately.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
BTC and ETH HODLs Relative To Stocks: Crypto vs Wall StreetLooking at the charts during downturns may not be as fun as looking at them during bull runs, but if you're a long-term trader it's important to keep tabs on how things are performing even when the prices are down. The pattern up until recently was that when stocks went up, so did crypto, and visa versa. The "volatility" of crypto assets often makes the prices go way up during good times, but it often plummets in price shortly afterwards as a response. In recent years, however, a different sort of pattern has emerged - during bull runs the prices still go up but during downturns the asset has shown some resiliency against the massive drops that it used to experience in the past. It may be a result of increased market size and name recognition - giving the asset a level of stability comparable to traditional stocks and markets. The USD markets have started to show signs that it's about to slow down, given the massive government spending and economic disruptions (COVID, supply chain issues, Russian sanctions) which is likely to take a turn for the worst as time goes on. How will crypto fair in this new economic environment? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
S&P500 26.5% drop incoming? I am seeing the start of a possible textbook head and shoulders pattern on the futures chart. If we have a blood bath next week it could just be the start of the pain. Especially if we end the quarter badly (March 31st). There are a lot of fundamental reasons we should be cautious in this market. Europe is seeing war on their doorstep. China is seeing massive instability in their housing market. US bonds (the blood of the financial world) are not catching bids. US banks may soon stop lending based on the yield curve, which will significantly effect the average American housing market. My long term buying target will be staged at the late 2019 early 2020 high if we break down hard from here. I will begin laddering in when we get within 5% of 2019 high. The next large drop in the market will see more stimulus. I am expecting 50-100T in stimulus is needed to keep this market even remotely stable in the next drop. This may be the final hurrah of the US stock market before a long bear market. Commodities are all breaking out which shows money is beginning to rotate. We are playing in a high volatility market. Any leverage is a huge risk and should be done with the utmost care.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nexusfurian
1
⚓US500 4510.4 SHORT IDEA + 0.94 % * PRICE ACTION & STRUCTUREHELLO EVERYONE HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE. HERE'S A LOOK AT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT IN THIS WEEK ON US 500. The index opened the week with a bullish rally since it broke out of that descending channel. * The index is still strongly bullish looking at momentum to the up side, but what goes up must come down the question is where. * Have a couple of levels to look at with interest ahead, will be looking at reversal patterns at this levels. * Break above of structure puts the second entry into play. - looking for reversals with the bears see below. lets see how it goes. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - SWING TRADE
UShort
by PULEMokhothu
Breaking down where the stock market is goingLooking at the daily chart on the ES futures contract (S&P) Today was a big day with price pulling up and holding the lows form Feb 24. The market has been on a crazy bull run since March 2009 so seeing this pullback is no surprise really, in fact I am surprised it didn't come earlier. Of course there was the pretty short-term collapse in 2020 but then the strong reversal we see in the chart here. 4800 was the highs and now resistance, along with 4700. You can see on Jan 18th price breaking down from the trendline and really confirming a trend change. For the bulls it is very important what happened today but we will need to see price taking out the 4300 and 4400 walls for me to be confident that the market is turning bullish again. Last week we saw a similar move only to see price pullback again. The key though is holding that Feb 24th low. Let's see if price is above 4300 by the end of this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Dancharles
Mar 3, 22 S&P 500-R we ready to go longThis is the weekly chart and with only tomorrow left for this week, will it actually end positive for the week? And what about last week - Hammer candle? Bullish maybe? Hopefully? And this weeks candle might end off with a bullish hammer candle also(or positive?) Also, the AO is showing GREEN for this week so that's positive right? Hard to say with this war going on and it looks like there is no slowing down either - who knows how many more weeks it will last. But..... What if price will actually finally go up? This would be nice. Naturally, who knows what will happen but everything is there for price action to go up, so I guess we shall see. Any comments from any hardcore index followers as to which way the S&P will go next week?? I welcome your comments :-) Stay Safe. Heiko
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
4
S&P 500 Index See More Gains In 2022The market is likely to see a bit of a pullback continue, which is healthy in what has been a very strong uptrend anyway. I have no interest in shorting this market, and if it falls apart, I think that January will simply end up being at a great longer-term buying opportunity as traders will look to be putting on risk to kick off the new year as per usual. The S&P 500 initially tried to rally on Wednesday to reach towards the 4660 level again. This is an area that has been resistance over the last couple of days, and it certainly came into the picture on Wednesday. We pulled back to form a bit of an inverted hammer on the monthly chart, and close at the very bottom of the range. This is a very difficult-looking candle, so if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, it is very likely that we go looking towards the uptrend line underneath. That uptrend line should be very important, as it has been supportive for quite some time. The 4500 level is right around the same area, so with that being the case I think it is only a matter of time before value hunters will come back into the picture. That being said, the real catalyst for the move is probably going to be a scenario on Friday after the jobs number. Between now and then, I would anticipate a lot of noisy behavior, but it certainly looks as if we are still favoring the downside. That being said, when you look at this chart, you can see that we are in a bit of a negative move, but when looked at through the prism of the longer term, it is not that big of a deal. That is the thing about pullbacks in an uptrend: the pullbacks feel much worse than they really are. We are only a few percent off from the highs, so a little bit of perspective is probably necessary. Keep in mind that Friday will cause a lot of noise, but Friday sessions end up being somewhat uneventful by the time they close most of the time, as we go back and forth only to end up somewhat unchanged. The initial knee-jerk reaction is almost always turned around so it is very likely that the market will continue to be very noisy. The market will continue to be one that you need to be cautious about putting too much money in, especially between now and the jobs number. The market is likely to see a bit of a pullback continue, which is healthy in what has been a very strong uptrend anyway. The S&P 500 bounced a bit from the 50-day EMA during a very volatile session on Tuesday. Jerome Powell shook the markets up by suggesting that inflation was “no longer transitory.” In other words, Capt. Obvious has spoken. That being said, he is about 18 months behind the curve, which is typical for central banks. As he worries about inflation, it is very likely that we are starting to peak. Take a look around you; we are seeing the word inflation everywhere, and it has suddenly become a major talking point. That typically means that we are closer to the end than the beginning. Think of Bitcoin a few years ago. Think about the US dollar and when models were demanding to be paid in euros about 12 years ago. It is normally when you hear the most hysterical wailing that you are towards the end of something. Looking at this chart, we have slammed into the 50-day EMA which quite often offers a bit of support, so it is worth paying attention to. I think given enough time, we will probably see this market try to find buyers, but it may be closer to the 4500 level. After that, we have the uptrend line that comes into the picture as well. The S&P 500 typically has the “Santa Claus rally” at the end of the year were money managers try to make up for a lack of returns. After all, they have people that they need to pay attention to in the form of clients, who will most certainly demand some type of return. This is a well-known phenomenon, and therefore that is why December is one of the most profitable months for the S&P 500 from a historical perspective. I have no interest in shorting this market, and if it falls apart, I think that January will simply end up being at a great longer-term buying opportunity as traders will look to be putting on risk to kick off the new year as per usual. While I would not necessarily be a buyer right here, I am waiting to see if we can get some type of stability to get involved. Keep in mind that the jobs number comes out on Friday as well. S&P 500 can be a profitable investment option. S&P 500 rate equal to 4537.02 on 02/12/2021... With a Mid-Hold investment, the revenue is expected to be around 7.29% - 13.00% grow in 2022 Buy & Hold | +ROI Investment Suggestion: MID-TERM Holding Duration : Min 6 months Probability: 63% INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE INVT News Report: POSITIVE - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE: 4560.00 - FAIR BUYING PRICE: 4400.00 - 4500.00 It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
SP:SPXLong
by AliSamadiTR
Market tops after yield compressionThis is a chart showing treasury yields, color coded by duration (yellow is the 1 year, dark blue is the 30 year), with the $SPX in the lower frame. Each red line shows a major market top and how they relate to yield compression followed by inversion. It looks to me like shorter term yields always rise vs longer term yields quite awhile before bear markets occur (in the past its been months or years before). It also looks like short term yields are rising abnormally quickly this time. Yield inversion is a huge red flag that a bear market is coming and I wonder how long we have this time before that happens.
FRED:DGS5
by KingOf2Things