Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows
🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding.
Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs).
🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side.
🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025
Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support.
Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift.
🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD.
📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD.
💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action
Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone.
Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540).
Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed.
Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum.
📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640.
📈 3. Retail Sentiment
77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646.
Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790.
📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed.
📊 4. Seasonality
June is historically weak for USD/CAD:
5Y Avg: -0.0118
2Y Avg: -0.0081
The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month.
📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Signals
Lingrid | USDCHF long Trading Opportunity from Strong SupportThe price perfectly fulfills my previous idea . FX:USDCHF just printed a new lower low at the bottom of a wide downward channel, completing a textbook bearish leg from the triangle breakdown. The price is showing signs of local accumulation with a possible double bottom forming near 0.8078 support. If a bullish bounce holds, the next target lies near the confluence of the upward trendline and 0.8200 zone.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 0.8060–0.8080
Sell trigger: breakdown below 0.8050
Target: 0.8200
Buy trigger: strong bullish engulfing above 0.8125
💡 Risks
Break below 0.8050 reopens path to 0.7980
Weak recovery could form another lower high
Downward channel remains dominant until confirmed breakout
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EURJPY Just Broke Out – Is This the Start of a Summer Rally?📊 1. COT Report – Euro & Yen
EUR (Euro FX – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: +5,968 | Short: -4,293 → Net Long increasing
Commercials:
Long: +11,480 | Short: +24,451 → Net Short
→ Speculators are clearly bullish on the euro.
JPY (Japanese Yen – CME):
Non-Commercials:
Long: -5,319 | Short: +1,235 → Net Long decreasing
Commercials:
Long: +31,893 | Short: +25,462 → Hedging, but still net short
→ The yen continues to be sold, especially by institutional players.
📌 EUR/JPY COT Summary:
Speculators are buying EUR and selling JPY → strong bullish bias on EUR/JPY.
🧠 2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY, with an average entry at 161.50
Current price is around 167.20 → retail is heavily underwater
✅ Strong contrarian bullish signal
📉 3. Technical Analysis
Price broke out of a long-term range, printing new yearly highs
RSI is overbought but with no active bearish divergence
Price sits inside a major supply zone between 166.50 and 168.00, where previous rejections occurred
A potential pullback to the 164.60–164.15 area aligns with ascending trendline support
🟡 Likely Scenario:
A healthy technical pullback to 164.50–165.00 to cool off RSI,
followed by a continuation higher if supported by momentum and COT positioning
📅 4. Seasonality
June is historically a bullish month for EUR/JPY:
5-year avg: +1.167%
2-year avg: +2.41%
→ Seasonality supports more upside into early July
🌍 5. Macro Context
BoJ remains dovish, no sign of imminent tightening
ECB is steady but relatively less dovish → rate differential still favors the euro
No signs yet of verbal intervention from Japan.
NZDJPY TECHNICALS AND FUNDAMENTALS DETAILED ANALYSISNZDJPY is currently trading around the 87.00 handle and has just bounced strongly from a well-respected support zone. The pair is now showing clear signs of recovery after a brief corrective dip, and price action on the 8H chart confirms a bullish reversal structure. The support held firmly, and we’ve already seen a solid rejection wick forming the foundation of this new impulsive leg up. With this momentum in play, I’m targeting the 90.00 zone in the coming sessions.
On the macro front, the New Zealand dollar is benefiting from a relatively hawkish RBNZ stance. Inflation pressures remain sticky in New Zealand, and the central bank has reiterated its cautious approach toward rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under persistent selling pressure due to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy and intervention uncertainty. These diverging central bank outlooks are fueling continued upside in NZDJPY as carry trade flows remain in favor of the kiwi.
From a technical perspective, the market structure remains bullish. After retesting a previous higher low, price is climbing within a clean channel and has broken minor resistance levels convincingly. This aligns well with a swing continuation pattern toward the 90.00 mark. Momentum is supported by increasing bullish volume, and as long as we remain above 86.00, the bulls are firmly in control.
In my analysis, this is a textbook setup. We’re seeing higher lows, strong trend continuation, and a macro-backed directional bias. I’m long from 87.00 with a bullish outlook into 90.00. I’ll reassess price action as we approach major resistance levels, but until then, I remain confidently positioned with a clear technical and fundamental confluence.
Lingrid | USDJPY Breakout Could Trigger Strong Bullish RallyFX:USDJPY is approaching a retest of the 144.20–144.30 support band after rebounding from a wedge breakdown and reclaiming structure within a broader ascending formation. Price remains under the downward trendline, but a successful bounce here could fuel another push toward 146. A higher low above 144.20 would confirm bullish intent.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 144.20–144.40
Sell trigger: breakdown below 144.00
Target: 146.00
Buy trigger: breakout and hold above 145.00
💡 Risks
Rejection at the downward trendline limits upside potential
Failure to hold the 144.20 base could reverse the bullish structure
JPY strength from macro news could suppress breakout attempts
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
BITCOIN Is exactly where it should be this time on every Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a new All Time High (ATH) last month, following the April 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). No matter how odd this price action may look to some, BTC is simply replicating the pattern it has during every past Cycle around this time of its final year.
As you can see, besides April 2025, it made 1W MA50 pull-backs and rebounds on June 2021, July 2017 and July 2013. The consistency is remarkable and since we are already now half-way through June, historically Bitcoin only went upwards!
In fact, those pull-backs have been the strongest the market saw before the Cycles peaked on each and every occasion. Two Cycles peaked just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension while in 2017 it peaked a little below the 5. Fib ext. This indicates that the minimum Cycle Top we can be expecting towards the end of the year is $160000 (marginally below the 2.0 Fib ext).
Many studies point towards the same Target. Do you think it's inevitable? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AMD First touch of 1W MA50 after 8 months!Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hit today its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 8 months (since October 28 2024). This is a crucial test as the las time this level broke as a Resistance following a Channel Up bottom rebound was on the week of January 30 2023.
When that happened, the Bullish Leg extended the upside to complete a +143.12% rise, before the next 1W MA50 pull-back.
As a result, if we close the week above the 1W MA50, we expect to see $185 before the end of the year.
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BITCOIN Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) formation, having consolidated for almost a month since the May 22 All Time High (ATH). What makes the bullish potential even stronger is that it is rising after making a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 10 2024.
Given that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up and the 1D MA50 is acting as its natural support trend-line, the Cup and Handle can provide a short-term Target on its 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $122000. On the long-term the Channel Up still has the potential to lead it much higher.
So do you think that 122k is achievable after this Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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US30: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 42,682.9 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 42,855.1 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
$FET 4Hr Time frame DUMP before PUMP? $1 Recovery!FET/USDT – 4H Time Frame Analysis
Pattern Formation: A rounding top is clearly visible, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and potential trend reversal.
Trend Structure: Price is forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish trend.
Key Zones:
Supply Zone: $0.85 – $0.975
Demand Zone: $0.35 – $0.45
Neckline Support: Price is approaching a critical neckline level. A break below this could trigger strong downside movement.
Weekly FVG & Fib Confluence:
Below the neckline lies a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns with this zone, forming a golden pocket — a key support area.
Scenario 1 – Bullish Reversal:
If price holds above the golden pocket, a bounce could push it back toward psychological levels (e.g., $0.70 and $0.80)
Scenario 2 – Bearish Continuation:
If price fails to hold the FVG/GP zone, this invalidates bullish setups.
Expect a breakdown targeting the $0.35–$0.45 demand zone.
EUR_AUD WILL GROW|LONG|
✅EUR_AUD went down to retest
A horizontal support of 1.7572
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 1.7800
LONG🚀
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Lingrid | GOLD Weekly Analysis: Geopolitical Safe-Haven RallyOANDA:XAUUSD demonstrated exceptional strength this week as geopolitical tensions from Israeli-Iranian conflicts drove massive safe-haven demand. The metal successfully broke above the critical 3,360 resistance level, confirming the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming since April.
The 4H chart reveals the market appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern within a broader upward trendline, suggesting continued bullish momentum. The recent breakout above the monthly high resistance zone indicates strong institutional buying pressure.
The daily chart presents an even more compelling picture with the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. This technical setup, combined with the massive flag pattern completion, projects potential targets toward $3,650-$3,700 levels. The right shoulder formation confirms the pattern's validity, while sustained buying above previous resistance zones validates the upward trajectory.
We should monitor the $3,430-$3,450 resistance area closely, as a decisive break could accelerate momentum toward the projected targets. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and technically sound chart patterns creates a favorable environment for continued gold appreciation in the mid-term.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
EUR-CHF Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CHF keeps growing
But a strong horizontal
Resistance of 0.9445
Is ahead so after the
Retest we will be expecting
A local bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
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Lingrid | GOLD corrective Pullback Presents Potential Long EntryOANDA:XAUUSD is retracing from a double top inside the resistance area near 3450 but remains above the key 3375 support and the ascending channel structure. Price is testing the confluence of the upward trendline and prior breakout level, creating a possible bullish rebound setup. A successful bounce here could ignite momentum toward the 3450–3470 zone.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3370–3375
Sell trigger: loss of 3360 support
Target: 3450
Buy trigger: breakout above 3400 and hold with strong candle close
💡 Risks
A close below the upward channel could trigger deeper sell-off
Failure to reclaim 3400 may trap bulls in consolidation
Macro catalysts (Fed, CPI) could override local structure
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
S&P500 Channel Up buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up and is now on a count (5) pull-back, breaking below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we expect the index to resume the uptrend, similar to the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
That Leg almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and made a Higher High. Our Target is marginally below the new 1.5 Fib ext at 6130.
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Lingrid | ETHUSDT potential Bullish Trade from the ConfluenceBINANCE:ETHUSDT is retesting a key support area near 2500 following a deep pullback from the 2765 rejection zone, while holding above a multi-week ascending trendline. The recent bounce has not yet invalidated the bullish structure, and the confluence with the downward breakout level adds significance to this zone. A higher low above 2480 could trigger a sharp reversal back toward the 2765 resistance.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 2475–2520
Sell trigger: breakdown below 2450
Target: 2765
Buy trigger: breakout above 2620
💡 Risks
A breakdown below 2475 would cancel the bullish setup
Lack of volume on bounce attempts may signal weakness
Macro events or BTC drop could drag ETH lower regardless of setup
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EURUSD Last push before correction.The EURUSD pair made a new High by breaking above the 1.15725 Resistance and is extending the rally since the January 13 2025 Low. That Low was the Higher Low of the multi-year Channel Up, so the current uptrend is technically its latest Bullish Leg.
The first Bullish Leg of that pattern peaked after a +15.75% rise. We expect a similar peak for the current rally, thus targeting 1.17750, before a new pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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Lingrid | EURUSD continuation Following Key Level BreakoutOANDA:EURUSD has completed a bullish breakout above the triangle pattern and is now consolidating above the key 1.14990 support level. The price structure shows a series of higher lows, with recent action forming a tight range just above trendline support. If bulls defend this area, a move toward the 1.17000 resistance becomes increasingly likely.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 1.14990–1.15200
Sell trigger: break below 1.14800
Target: 1.17000
Buy trigger: break above 1.16000 with bullish volume
💡 Risks
Failure to hold 1.14990 could trigger a move toward 1.12100
DXY strength could suppress EUR upside
ECB or Fed policy shocks could increase volatility
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GBPUSD Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.357.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.351 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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XAUUSD Strong break-out ahead to $3700.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a Channel Up, while being supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is similar to the December 19 2024 - January 30 2025 Channel Up, which when it broke above the previous Higher High Resistance, it rose straight to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA50 supports, we are looking for a medium-term bullish break-out, possible by the end of July, targeting at least 3700.
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GOLD recovers from $3,371, risks remain highOn Tuesday (June 17) in the Asian market, the spot price of OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly fell sharply in the short term, and the price of gold once fell below 3,380 USD/ounce. As investors watched the hostile situation between Israel and Iran, US President Trump called for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iran and ordered officials to be ready in the situation room, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social": "Iran should sign the 'deal' I asked them to sign. What a shame and waste of lives. Simply put, Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. I have said this over and over again! Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately!"
Axios News reported that shortly after Trump's tweet, Iranian media reported explosions and heavy anti-aircraft fire in Tehran. It is unclear whether there is any connection between Trump's tweet and the attack.
According to the latest report from Fox News, US President Trump asked the National Security Council to be on standby in the White House Situation Room after he cut short his trip to the G7 summit and returned to Washington earlier than expected.
The White House Situation Room is a conference room and intelligence management center located in the basement of the West Wing of the White House, with a total area of about 460 square meters.
The main purpose of the White House Situation Room is to provide a working space for the National Security Council, including the President of the United States, the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Advisor, etc., to quickly discuss and respond to sudden domestic and international events affecting the national security of the United States. It has advanced and complete security communication facilities, allowing the President of the United States to control the United States military around the world at any time.
WTI crude oil prices rose about 3.00% on the day after Trump told officials to be ready in the situation room.
These market risks clearly leave plenty of room for gold to rise, and the current decline, which is being driven by profit-taking, is unlikely to last.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After a sharp decline, gold has recovered from the support level noted to readers in the previous issue at the price point of 3,371 USD, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and currently the original price point of 3,400 USD is the nearest resistance at present.
If gold breaks above 3,400 USD, it will have the conditions to aim for the target of 3,435 USD in the short term.
Currently, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend with the price channel as the short-term trend, while the price channel as the long-term trend and the EMA21 as the nearest support at present.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50 and is far from overbought territory, suggesting that there is still plenty of room for upside ahead.
The current declines should still be viewed as a short-term correction rather than a full-fledged trend, or as a buying opportunity.
During the day, the technical bullish outlook for gold will be highlighted by the following positions.
Support: $3,371 – $3,350
Resistance: $3,400 – $3,435
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3420 - 3418⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3424
→Take Profit 1 3412
↨
→Take Profit 2 3406
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3350 - 3352⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3346
→Take Profit 1 3358
↨
→Take Profit 2 3364
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jun 16 - Jun 20]The unrest in the Middle East this week has boosted safe-haven demand for gold, pushing it above $3,400 an ounce.
While gold has broken several recent technical resistance levels, it is unlikely that it will hit a new record high next week. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran provides safe-haven support, but historically, gold rallies driven by geopolitical events tend to be short-lived.
Gold is currently outperforming the US dollar, which has struggled to attract safe-haven funds.
Iran launched a retaliatory airstrike on Israel on Friday night (June 13), Reuters reported. Air raid sirens sounded across Israel and authorities urged residents to take shelter in shelters.
The Israeli military said Iran fired nearly 100 missiles, most of which were intercepted or missed their targets.
Israel's Channel 12 reported two people were seriously injured, eight were moderately injured and 34 suffered shrapnel injuries.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had carried out military operations against dozens of targets in Israel.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' news website released a message that evening saying the "powerful and precise" counterattack was in retaliation for Israel's "invasion" of many parts of Iran and the killing of many senior military commanders, nuclear experts and Iranian civilians, including children.
Wider Middle East Conflict Could Erupt
Israel destroyed Tehran's military command system early Friday and struck key Iranian nuclear facilities. The Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guards, cited data saying the Israeli attack killed dozens of people in Iran and wounded more than 300.
Israel has carried out large-scale airstrikes on multiple locations in Iran since early Friday, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets.
Reuters said Israel's attacks on Iran during the day and Iran's retaliation have raised concerns about a broader conflict in the region.
All Eyes on the Fed
While gold will continue to be affected by geopolitical developments, market attention will also be on the Federal Reserve, particularly Chairman Powell, who will speak after next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Economists generally expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged. However, expectations are growing that Powell could begin paving the way for a rate cut later this year.
The latest inflation data and signs of a slowing US economy have given the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. However, growing geopolitical uncertainty may prompt some market participants to adjust their expectations.
Overall assessment of the basic environment
The gold market in particular will still receive absolute support when there are too many risks appearing, from geopolitical developments to interest rate prospects, and tariffs. Major conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, trade war between the US and the rest of the world, ... are all sudden risk support that makes gold likely to surge in the short term. Therefore, in general vision, gold is considered the top safe-haven asset in the global unstable environment and it tends to increase in price in the current context.
Economic Data to Watch Next Week
Monday: State Manufacturing Survey, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
Tuesday: US Retail Sales
Wednesday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting
Thursday: US Markets Closed for Black Lives Matter Day, Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Meeting, Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting
Friday: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has almost achieved all the bullish targets noted by readers in last week's weekly issue, initially at $3,371, then at the full price point and finally at $3,435. Gold can still continue to increase in price as technical conditions still absolutely support the short-term trend channel, while the long-term trend channel and the nearest support is the EMA21.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sloping up after receiving support from 50 and is still far from overbought territory, indicating that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead.
To sum up, as long as gold remains within/above the price channel, it remains bullish in the short term. Any dips that do not break below the price channel should only be considered as short-term corrections or a new buying opportunity.
Finally, the notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 3,400 – 3,371 USD
Resistance: 3,435 – 3,500 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3497 - 3495⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3501
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3374 - 3376⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3370