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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 14 - Jul 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD opened at $3,342/oz, dropped to $3,282/oz, but then rebounded sharply to close at $3,355/oz. The recovery was mainly driven by former President Trump's announcement of new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on imports from 22 countries, effective August 1st. Particularly, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods — a key U.S. trading partner — raised concerns about global trade stability and supply chains. Trump also proposed 15–20% tariffs on most other trading partners, reigniting fears of global trade disruptions. At the same time, ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to weigh on sentiment, despite U.S. diplomatic efforts showing little progress. However, analysts note that gold still lacks strong momentum for a breakout. Trump's tariff threats may be more about negotiation leverage than triggering a full-blown trade war. Meanwhile, with the labor market recovering and inflation rising, the Fed is expected to maintain its neutral monetary policy, limiting short-term gold price movements. Although geopolitical tensions remain (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas), the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced gold’s geopolitical risk premium. Looking ahead, key U.S. economic data next week — including CPI, PPI, and retail sales — will be closely watched. A strong June core CPI (0.4% or higher) could reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, strengthening the USD and pushing gold lower. Conversely, weaker inflation data could boost expectations of a rate cut, supporting gold prices. 📌In terms of technical analysis, gold prices next week may continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if they surpass the 3,370 USD/oz mark, gold prices next week will challenge the 3,400-3,450 USD/oz range. On the contrary, gold prices next week will adjust down to 3,285 USD/oz, or even 3,245 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,350 – 3,310 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3435 - 3433⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3439 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3326
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
US500 Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 6,252.40. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,297.19 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US500Long
by SignalProvider
2
USDJPY Is Very Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 147.419. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.283 level soon. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
USOIL: Local Bearish Bias! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 68.669 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 67.925..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FX:USOILShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Soybeans Loading a Bounce? Demand Zone + COT1. Price Action & Technical Structure Price has bounced off a strong daily demand zone (1011–969). Today’s daily candle shows a clear rejection wick from the low, and RSI is signaling a potential reversal. The market is trading inside a falling channel, currently near the lower boundary — setting up a possible breakout move. Technical Targets: • First upside target: 1039–1049 Invalidation: daily close below 990, which would confirm structural breakdown. 2. COT Report – Soybeans Futures (as of July 9, 2025) • Non-Commercials:  +11,539 spreads | +7,017 shorts | –7,520 longs → Slight bearish pressure, though spreads suggest growing speculative complexity. • Commercials:  +7,876 longs | –9,084 shorts → Moderate commercial bullish bias. • Open Interest:  +8,076 contracts → Market activity increasing. Overall COT positioning is neutral to slightly bullish, with growing signs of accumulation around the 1000 level. 3. Seasonality – MarketBulls Historically, July is one of the weakest months for Soybeans: • –44.82 (20Y avg) • –36.86 (15Y avg) • –34.74 (10Y avg) However, early August shows signs of seasonal recovery, and price action is already diverging from typical seasonal behavior. This makes a deeper breakdown less likely — we could be nearing the end of the seasonal weakness. Operational Takeaway Current Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish Confluence of signals supports the idea of a technical rebound: ✅ Bullish reaction candle in demand ✅ Fibonacci support + lower trendline touch ✅ COT data stabilizing with rising open interest ✅ Seasonal weakness possibly exhausted
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EURJPY Hits Supply | Pullback Is ComingPrice has entered the daily supply zone (red area) between 170.80 and 171.80, showing immediate rejection with a long upper wick — a signal of potential short-term bearish reaction. The RSI is turning lower, indicating loss of momentum, although it hasn’t reached extreme levels yet. The current map suggests a technical pullback toward the 169.40–168.50 zone (FVG + dynamic support) before any potential bullish continuation toward 174+. The overall structure remains bullish, but a correction looks likely due to technical exhaustion and retail positioning. 📊 2. COT Report (JPY Futures – as of 2025-07-01) Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced long positions on the JPY by -7,779 contracts, and also slightly trimmed shorts → clear sign of position reduction. Net positioning remains strongly negative (JPY weakness), but it's starting to recover slightly. Commercials added both longs (+2,830) and shorts (+5,977), indicating indecision but growing interest. Open interest slightly decreased (–516), though it remains elevated. 👉 The market has not yet reversed, but the JPY downtrend may be approaching exhaustion. 🧠 3. Retail Sentiment 86% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY — a strong contrarian bullish signal. Average retail short entry: 166.27, while current price is 171.55 → retail traders are trapped and under pressure. A short squeeze is likely underway or already completed, increasing the risk of a technical correction after distribution. 📅 4. Seasonality July is historically weak for EUR/JPY: 20Y: -0.35 15Y: -0.49 10Y: -0.18 August tends to be even worse from a seasonal perspective. This supports the idea of a potential pullback in the coming days or weeks. Trading Conclusion Current Bias: Short-term Neutral–Bearish, Medium-term Bullish. ✳️ Potential pullback from 172.30 toward 169.40–168.50 🎯 If price holds and builds clean bullish structure, expect continuation toward 174.00–175.00 ❌ Invalidation on daily close below 167.80
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
EUR/USD Reversal Ahead? COT + DXY Strength Signal Price has broken below the ascending channel that started in mid-May. The current candle is rejecting the weekly supply zone (1.17566–1.18319), leaving a significant upper wick. Daily RSI is losing strength but has not yet reached extreme levels. A key daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies between 1.1600 and 1.1480, with the first potential downside target at 1.14802, which aligns with support and the FVG zone. A deeper bearish continuation could push price towards 1.1350, but only if the FVG lows are clearly broken. 📊 COT Data (CME - Euro FX & USD Index) Euro FX Net long: +15,334 Commercials increased both longs (+13,550) and shorts (+9,913) → mild divergence. Non-Commercials (speculators) increased shorts (+4,786) more than longs (+1,188) → speculative bias tilting bearish. USD Index Strong net long accumulation across all trader types: +4,597 net. Non-Commercials added +3,590 longs, with only a minor increase in shorts. → USD strength continues, reinforcing potential weakness in EUR/USD. 🧠 Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short EUR/USD → typically a contrarian bullish signal. However, the price is already showing distribution, not accumulation, so we may see price push lower first to trap remaining retail longs, invalidating the contrarian signal in the short term. 📅 Seasonality July is historically bullish, especially on the 2Y (+0.0142) and 10Y (+0.0106) averages. However, the 15Y and 20Y averages show a much more moderate performance (+0.007 / +0.0025). Based on current price action, the seasonal rally may have already played out with the run-up to 1.1830. A correction now seems likely, even if the broader macro remains supportive mid-term. 🧩 Conclusion Despite historically bullish seasonality for July, both price action and COT data indicate distribution with early signs of reversal. Retail sentiment is too skewed short for a major breakdown just yet, but the technicals support a short-term pullback toward more balanced levels. USD strength from COT and DXY structure reinforces a corrective short bias for now.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
EURAUD Breakdown Incoming? Price + COT + Seasonality🧠 MACRO & INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS (COT) EURO (EUR) Strong increase in net long positions by non-commercials: +16,146 Commercials also added long exposure: +25,799 Bias: moderately bullish AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD) Non-commercials remain heavily net short (long/short ratio: 15% vs 63.6%) Slight increase in commercial longs: +2,629 Bias: still bearish, but showing early signs of positioning exhaustion COT Conclusion: EUR remains strong, AUD remains weak — but the recent extension calls for caution on fresh EURAUD longs. 📊 SEASONALITY (JULY) EUR shows historically positive July performance across 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y averages AUD also shows mild strength, but less consistent 🔎 Net differential: No strong seasonal edge on EURAUD in July 📈 RETAIL SENTIMENT 54% of retail traders are short EURAUD, 46% long Slight contrarian bullish bias, but not extreme yet → neutral to slightly long 📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – MULTI-TIMEFRAME 1. Weekly Chart Strong bearish engulfing candle after 4 weeks of upside RSI dropped below 50 → clear momentum shift 1.7960–1.8100 is now a liquidity zone that’s been tapped 2. Daily Chart Confirmed break of the ascending channel formed since May Price reacted from demand zone around 1.7460–1.7720, signaling potential pullback Watch for rejection around 1.7910 (50% body of the weekly engulfing candle) 3. Entry Setup Key area for short entries: 1.7910–1.7940 This zone aligns with: ✅ Former support now turned resistance ✅ Inside a valid bearish order block ✅ Ideal retracement level (50% engulfing body) 🎯 OPERATIONAL CONCLUSION While the macro context still favors a stronger EUR against AUD, price action tells another story. The weekly engulfing candle is a strong technical reversal signal, and the daily structure confirms the break. → Shorting the pullback into 1.7910–1.7940 could offer an excellent R/R trade setup. Bias: Short-term bearish – Targeting 1.7700, 1.7550, and potentially 1.7315 Invalidation: Daily close above 1.8040
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
NETFLIX 1D MA50 test is a new buy opportunity.Netflix (NFLX) has been rising non-stop since the April 07 bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This bottom has been the latest Higher Low of the 3-year Channel Up that started on the June 14 2022 bottom. This kickstarted its third long-term Bullish Leg. The previous two have been fairly similar (+210% and +195.93%) so we can assume a minimum total rise of +195.93% until the next top (Higher High of the Channel Up). We can also see that on each Bullish Leg, after the initial rebound, the stock always tested the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) around the 0.236 Time Fibonacci level. That has always been the best buy opportunity of that stage. As a result, we believe that the recent short-term correction is a buy opportunity in disguise, targeting a Higher High at $2200. Check out our previous analysis on Netflix: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by TradingShot
1
EURGBP Perfect Channel Up giving one more buy opportunity.Last time we looked at the EURGBP pair (May 30, see chart below) we gave the most timely buy signal right at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone, and the price is only a few candles away from the 0.87400 Target: If we look at the price action from a 4H perspective we can see that it is a Channel Up that has been driving the pair upwards since the May 28 bottom and today's rebound is taking place after a direct hit on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the start of the new Bullish Leg. Since the previous two have increased by +1.90%, this rally has the potential to even exceed our 0.87400 Target marginally. Still, this is a perfect bullish set-up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot