GOLD H4 Update: Bulls will target 3600/3750 USD Market Update🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update (June 16, 2025)
📊 Price & Technical Outlook
Current Spot Price: around $3,414
Technical Setup
* Gold consolidating above major support at \~\$3,180–3,200
* Testing resistance at \~\$3,380–3,400; breakout could push toward \$3,600
* Recent price action considered a healthy consolidation with upside potential
🏆 Bull Market Overview
* Pullback likely complete; supported by strong geopolitical and macro tailwinds
* Key price levels: \$3,000 / \$3,200 / \$3,400 (resistance near \$3,400)
* Bullish target: \$3,600, with further upside possible if momentum holds
* Short-term dips remain buying opportunities—“buy the dip” remains favored
⭐ Recommended Strategy
BUY/HOLD: Continue to accumulate on dips, using \$3,200–3,300 as entry zones
Target: Maintain bull target at \$3,600, with breakout opportunity above \$3,400
🏦 Macro & Market Drivers
Fed & Central Bank Outlook
* Investors positioning for possible Fed rate cuts later this year, likely totaling around 75 bps by end of 2025
* Ongoing dollar weakness supports gold
Geopolitical Tensions
* Middle East unrest, U.S.–Iran dynamics, and global evacuations are fueling safe-haven demand for gold
* Continued volatility in global hotspots likely to keep gold elevated
Risk Appetite & Market Behavior
* Both stocks and gold are climbing—an unusual “optimism + fear” scenario
* Central banks, especially in China, India, and Turkey, have been strong gold buyers in 2025
* Speculative positions in gold futures remain high
U.S.–China & Trade Tariffs
* Unresolved U.S.–China tariffs and tensions continue to support gold
* Any easing in trade friction could temper gold’s advance
📰 Latest Market Sentiment
* Wall Street remains bullish on gold for the upcoming week, though some caution persists ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting
* Macro environment is seen as supportive for gold and other precious metals
* Gold’s rally is positively influencing the broader precious metals market
🌏 Demand Themes
* **Asian Buyers**: China may relax gold import quotas to manage currency, while India demand remains strong though can be seasonally slower
* **Central Banks**: Over 240 tonnes of gold added in Q1 by central banks, with China and India as top buyers
⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints
* Fed surprises: A more hawkish tone at the next meeting could push gold back toward \$3,200–3,300
* Geopolitical breakthroughs: Any stable resolutions could reduce safe-haven demand
* Large speculative position unwinds could create short-term volatility
🔎 Mid-Term Outlook Summary
| Scenario | Support | Resistance | Catalysts |
| --------- | ------------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- |
| Base case | \$3,200–3,300 | \$3,400 | Rate cut expectations + geopolitics |
| Bull case | Above \$3,400 | \$3,600+ | Escalating risk, dovish Fed |
| Bear case | Below \$3,200 | — | Hawkish Fed, easing global tensions |
✔️ Final Take
* Technical and fundamental momentum supports a continued bull phase with key target at \$3,600
* Best strategy: accumulate on dips between \$3,200–3,300
* Key factors to watch: Fed’s next move (June 17), Middle East developments, U.S.–China trade actions, central bank buying
Silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-16 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's Up-Down-Up Pattern suggests the markets will transition into a moderate upward trending price bar - which is quite interesting in the world we have today.
War and a big weekend of events, protests and other new items could drive market trends over the next few days.
Still, the SPY Cycle Pattern for today is an Up-Down-Up - which suggests last Thursday was an Up bar, last Friday was a Down bar, and today should be an Up bar.
The Gold/Silver pattern is a POP pattern in Counter-trend.
I believe the US markets are benefiting as a safe-haven for capital as the global turmoil drives global investors to seek safety and security for their capital.
That means as long as the world continues to spin out of control, the US markets and the US-Dollar will act as a moderate safe-haven for capital.
Gold and Silver should also benefit from this global chaos.
Bitcoin is benefiting from the strength of the US markets (and the technology sector) as well.
Let's see how this week start to play out. I'm waiting for some more news.
Could be very interesting this week.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 6-17: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a type of topping pattern, attempting to identify resistance, then roll away from that resistance level and trend downward.
I suggest the news related to the conflict between Israel & Iran may continue to drive market trends with traders moving away from uncertainty near these recent highs.
Silver makes a big move higher. Gold will likely follow later this week or early next week.
BTCUSD moves into a sideways FLAGGING pattern - possibly attempting a BIG BREAKDOWN event over the next few weeks.
Overall, the markets look like they are poised for a very big move - just waiting for the GREEN LINK (GO).
Stay safe. Protect capital and HEDGE.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SILVER BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,714.4
Target Level: 3,384.5
Stop Loss: 3,933.3
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 36.903 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 37.240 .Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
PAAS – High Tight Flag with Silver TailwindsPan American Silver ( NYSE:PAAS ) is forming a high tight flag — one of the most explosive continuation patterns — just as silver starts heating up.
🔹 High Tight Flag Formation
NYSE:PAAS ripped with momentum and is now consolidating in a tight, bullish range.
This is exactly what you want to see — shallow pullback, tight candles, and holding near highs.
🔹 Sector Momentum: Silver Heating Up
AMEX:SLV and /SI are pushing toward multi-year breakout levels.
NYSE:PAAS is riding that same energy, and any continuation in silver could ignite this setup.
My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Starter Position: Looking to enter on strength through the top of the flag.
2️⃣ Add on Confirmation: Add size on volume surge and breakout follow-through.
3️⃣ Stop Loss: Below flag base — keeping it tight and defined.
Why I Love This Setup:
High tight flags are low-risk, high-reward when paired with macro momentum.
Silver is gaining strength — NYSE:PAAS could lead the miner group if this breaks clean.
Strong structure, clean risk, macro fuel = great setup.
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 36.344 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open
The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower.
At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year.
Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory.
________________________________________
1. What Sparked the Spike?
1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil.
2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos.
3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm.
________________________________________
2. How Real Is the Supply Risk?
While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now:
• Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia.
• Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.”
• Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations.
In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel.
________________________________________
3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn
Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes:
Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook
OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE
Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike
U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55
Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness
Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness
Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls.
________________________________________
4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent
1. Escalation (20 % probability)
• Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic
• 3 mbpd disrupted for one month
• Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10
• Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting
2. Containment (60 % probability)
• Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed
• Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July
• By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65
3. Detente (20 % probability)
• U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged
• Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks
• Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter
________________________________________
5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire
The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying:
• Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness.
• PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases.
• ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week.
Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity.
________________________________________
6. Cross-Asset Implications
1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology.
2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance.
3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction.
________________________________________
7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call?
• OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely.
• U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way.
• Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock.
________________________________________
8. Trading and Hedging Playbook
Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels
Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30
WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20
Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390
Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20
Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads
Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs.
________________________________________
9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile
Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping:
• OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y.
• China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl.
• India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth.
On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price.
________________________________________
10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast
Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost?
2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days
2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None
2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted
Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks.
________________________________________
11. Outlook Summary
• Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34.
• Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth.
• Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts.
•
________________________________________
12. Conclusion
The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end.
For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
Silver Gains on Tensions, Eyes on FedFriday’s strong U.S. data may support the dollar, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2, beating forecasts of 53.5 and marking the first gain in six months.
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, especially for silver. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites Friday, killing military officials. On Sunday, Iran began its fourth phase of response, warning of firm retaliation to further Israeli actions.
Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While rates are expected to stay unchanged, futures still price in two cuts this year, possibly starting in September, supported by last week’s soft inflation data.
Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
$DXY Dollar stays weak but is it bottommed?Have not many ANY trades based on the US Dollar. Have not been convinced in either way, yet.
TVC:DXY has been weaker lately but not by much. Well, at least compared to its previous low.
However, LONGER TERM we see it's biz as usual.
It is currently fairly oversold on the weekly chart & could be primed to change direction.
Why Silver Could Outperform Gold in the Coming Months? Silver recently broke out above the key 34.85 resistance level, and this could be a game changer for the medium-term outlook. With rising concerns over government debt, trade uncertainty, and escalating geopolitical risks, gold rallied strongly from 2000 to 3500. Gold and silver typically have a high correlation, and silver tends to follow gold. However, during the latest tariff-driven rally, gold pushed toward 3500 while silver failed to keep up. So, why did gold outperform silver this time?
The answer lies in the demand dynamics. Gold demand primarily comes from the investment side, while silver demand has traditionally been balanced around 50% investment and 50% industrial use. That balance has now shifted significantly. According to the Silver Institute, only 17.8% of 2025 silver demand is expected to come from investments. If we group jewelry and silverware with investment as a “store of value” category, the mix becomes 61% industrial and 39% investment.
This shift has been driven by a surge in silver demand from the electrical and electronics sector. The growth of clean energy and AI technologies has accelerated silver usage. In fact, the electrical and electronics sector is projected to account for 40.5% of total silver demand in 2025. This explains why slowing global trade and economic activity have had a more negative effect on silver compared to gold, pushing the gold/silver ratio to historically high levels.
That said, this same dynamic could fuel silver’s rise in the coming years, supported by long-term trends in clean energy and advanced technology.
The breakout of 34.85 is a significant technical development . Silver has been in an active uptrend channel since 2024, but the 34.85 level repeatedly capped upward moves since October. With this breakout, silver now has room to rise gradually toward the upper boundary of the channel, potentially reaching near 40. Key support levels to watch are 34.85 and 34.45. As long as they hold, the primary direction remains upward. The moves may be gradual but could include sharp surges and continuation patterns like flags.
Silver H1 | Rising into a swing-high resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 36.50 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 36.70 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 36.06 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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SILVER Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for SILVER is below:
The market is trading on 36.320 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 35.168
Recommended Stop Loss - 36.830
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SILVER: Short Trade Explained
SILVER
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SILVER
Entry Point - 36.320
Stop Loss - 36.874
Take Profit - 35.158
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
BRIEFING Week #24 : is Stagflation Coming next ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step________________________________________
🏆 Intraday Gold Trading System with Neural Networks: Step-by-Step Practical Guide
________________________________________
📌 Step 1: Overview and Goal
The goal is to build a neural network system to predict intraday short-term gold price movements—typically forecasting the next 15 to 30 minutes.
________________________________________
📈 Step 2: Choosing Indicators (TradingView Equivalents)
Key indicators for intraday gold trading:
• 📊 Moving Averages (EMA, SMA)
• 📏 Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• 🌀 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
• 📉 Bollinger Bands
• 📦 Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
• ⚡ Average True Range (ATR)
________________________________________
🗃 Step 3: Data Acquisition (Vectors and Matrices)
Use Python's yfinance to fetch intraday gold data:
import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
data = yf.download('GC=F', period='30d', interval='15m')
________________________________________
🔧 Step 4: Technical Indicator Calculation
Use Python’s pandas_ta library to generate all required indicators:
import pandas_ta as ta
data = ta.ema(data , length=20)
data = ta.ema(data , length=50)
data = ta.rsi(data , length=14)
macd = ta.macd(data )
data = macd
data = macd
bbands = ta.bbands(data , length=20)
data = bbands
data = bbands
data = bbands
data = ta.atr(data , data , data , length=14)
data.dropna(inplace=True)
________________________________________
🧹 Step 5: Data Preprocessing and Matrix Creation
Standardize your features and shape data for neural networks:
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
import numpy as np
features =
scaler = StandardScaler()
data_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(data )
def create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10):
X, y = ,
for i in range(len(data_scaled) - window_size - 1):
X.append(data_scaled )
y.append(data .iloc )
return np.array(X), np.array(y)
X, y = create_matrix(data_scaled, window_size=10)
________________________________________
🤖 Step 6: Neural Network Construction with TensorFlow
Use LSTM neural networks for sequential, time-series prediction:
import tensorflow as tf
from tensorflow.keras.models import Sequential
from tensorflow.keras.layers import LSTM, Dense, Dropout
model = Sequential( , X.shape )),
Dropout(0.2),
LSTM(32, activation='relu'),
Dense(1)
])
model.compile(optimizer='adam', loss='mse')
________________________________________
🎯 Step 7: Training the Neural Network
history = model.fit(X, y, epochs=50, batch_size=32, validation_split=0.2)
________________________________________
📊 Step 8: Evaluating Model Performance
Visualize actual vs. predicted prices:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
predictions = model.predict(X)
plt.plot(y, label='Actual Price')
plt.plot(predictions, label='Predicted Price')
plt.xlabel('Time Steps')
plt.ylabel('Gold Price')
plt.legend()
plt.show()
________________________________________
🚦 Step 9: Developing a Trading Strategy
Translate predictions into trading signals:
def trade_logic(predicted, current, threshold=0.3):
diff = predicted - current
if diff > threshold:
return "Buy"
elif diff < -threshold:
return "Sell"
else:
return "Hold"
latest_data = X .reshape(1, X.shape , X.shape )
predicted_price = model.predict(latest_data)
current_price = data .iloc
decision = trade_logic(predicted_price, current_price)
print("Trading Decision:", decision)
________________________________________
⚙️ Step 10: Real-Time Deployment
Automate the model for live trading via broker APIs (pseudocode):
while market_open:
live_data = fetch_live_gold_data()
live_data_processed = preprocess(live_data)
prediction = model.predict(live_data_processed)
decision = trade_logic(prediction, live_data )
execute_order(decision)
________________________________________
📅 Step 11: Backtesting
Use frameworks like Backtrader or Zipline to validate your strategy:
import backtrader as bt
class NNStrategy(bt.Strategy):
def next(self):
if self.data.predicted > self.data.close + threshold:
self.buy()
elif self.data.predicted < self.data.close - threshold:
self.sell()
cerebro = bt.Cerebro()
cerebro.addstrategy(NNStrategy)
# Add data feeds and run cerebro
cerebro.run()
________________________________________
🔍 Practical Use-Cases
• ⚡ Momentum Trading: EMA crossovers, validated by neural network.
• 🔄 Mean Reversion: Trade at Bollinger Band extremes, validated with neural network predictions.
• 🌩️ Volatility-based: Use ATR plus neural net for optimal entry/exit timing.
________________________________________
🛠 Additional Recommendations
• Frameworks: TensorFlow/Keras, PyTorch, scikit-learn
• Real-time monitoring and risk management are crucial—use volatility indicators!
________________________________________
📚 Final Thoughts
This practical guide arms you to build, deploy, and manage a neural network-based intraday gold trading system—from data acquisition through backtesting—ensuring you have the tools for robust, data-driven, and risk-managed trading strategies.
________________________________________
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 36.303 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range.
After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news.
I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend.
I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty.
I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD.
Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets.
Happy Friday the 13th - everyone.
Going to be an interesting day to say the least.
Get some.
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